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APEIS Project: India Report Presented by P R Shukla Presented at - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India APEIS Project: India Report Presented by P R Shukla Presented at The 11th International AIM Workshop, NIES, Tsukuba, Japan, February 19-20, 2005 Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

APEIS Project: India Report

Presented by

P R Shukla

Presented at The 11th International AIM Workshop, NIES, Tsukuba, Japan, February 19-20, 2005

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Presentation Agenda

1. Technology Database Development

  • Energy Technology Transitions in India
  • New and Renewable Technology Database
  • Linking Innovations with MDG: Assessment of India’s Bio-energy Program

2. AIM/CGE Model Development

  • Model Data Inputs
  • Energy and Environment Security in South-Asia
  • South-Asia Energy Cooperation Scenarios
  • Model Results

3. APEIS Project Interface with APN’s CAPaBLE Project

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Technology Database Development

  • Energy Technology Transitions in India
  • New and Renewable Technology Database
  • Linking Innovations with MDG: Assessment of India’s Bio-energy

Program

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

India: Population, GDP and Energy Trends

80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Indices, Base:1980=100

Energy consumption TPEC p.c.TPEC Energy Intensity of GDP Population Electricity Consumption GDP at factor cost

Data Source: CMIE, CEA, Census 2001, Economic Surveys and GoI Ministry reports

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Energy Transitions: Global & Indian

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1850 1900 1950 2000 Percentage of PEC

Traditional renewables Coal Oil Gas Hydro Nuclear Coal

Global

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

1 953-54 1 960-61 1 970-71 1 980-81 1 990-91 2001

  • 02

Percentage of PEC

Non-commercial energy supply Hydro Coal & LIgnite Oil Gas Nuclear

India

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Energy Transition in Indian Railways

2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 1970-71 1978-79 1986-87 1994-95 2002-03

Coal usage (in 1000 tons)

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000

Electricity usage (GW H)

Data Source: CSO, GoI and Indian Railways annual reports

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Renewable Energy Technologies (RET)

RET Classification

Renewable Energy

Renewable heat Renewable fuel Renewable electricity

Grid-connected Biomass Stand alone Biomass Solar

Residues Energy crops Residues Energy crops Biomass Residues Energy crops PV Wind

Decentralised Centralised

Biomass PV Wind Biomass PV Wind Solar thermal Residues Energy crops Residues Energy crops Onshore Offshore Onshore Offshore

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Stage of RET Development in India

Stage of Market Development

Ocean energy

Hydrogen Biofuels Biomass power Solar thermal Declining Mature Deployment Research Demonstration Development Geo- thermal

Pre- revenue Subsidy driven market Developed markets

Stage of Technology Development

Solar PV Wind Power Small Hydro

Scope/potential for contribution to India’s energy demand

  • N. Fusion
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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

MDG, India’s National Targets, Biomass and Climate Change

MDG and global targets India’s National plan targets Interface with Climate Change Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger Targets: Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people with income below $1 a day and those who suffer from hunger Double the per capita income by 2012 Reduce poverty ratio by 15% by 2012 Contain population growth to 16.2% between 2001-2011 Bio-energy can enhance rural income, substitute oil imports and enhance mitigative & adaptive capacity Lower population reduces pressure

  • n land, water and energy

consumption Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainability Targets: Integrate SD principles in country policies/ programs to reverse loss of environmental resources Target: Halve by 2015 the proportion of people without sustainable access to safe drinking water Increase in forest cover to 25% by 2007 and 33% by 2012 (from 23% in 2001) Sustained access to potable drinking water to all villages by 2007 Electrify 80,000 additional villages by 2012 via decentralized sources Cleaning of all major polluted rivers by 2007 and other notified stretches by 2012 Enhanced sink capacity; energy security due to substitution of fossil imports; reduced pressure on land, resources and ecosystems Better quality of life and adaptive capacity due to access to electricity, enhanced supply of clean water, health & education in rural areas

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Modern Biomass Fuels and Technologies

BIO BIO-

  • FUELS/ TECHNOLOGIES

FUELS/ TECHNOLOGIES Solid Solid Liquid Liquid

(Separate Slide)

Wood Wood Agro Agro-

  • Waste

Waste (Electricity) (Electricity)

Gasifier Direct Co-generation Combustion (Processing)

Combustion (Sugar Mills) (Rice Mills, Plantations)

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Modern Biomass Fuels and Technologies

Liquid BIO Liquid BIO-

  • FUELS

FUELS Diesel Engines Gasoline Engines Diesel Engines Gasoline Engines

Bio Bio-

  • Diesel

Diesel Diesel Diesel-

  • Alcohol

Alcohol Gasoline Gasoline-

  • Alcohol

Alcohol Emulsions Emulsions Blends Blends

Bio-Diesel Neat Bio-Diesel

Blends

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Indian Mission on Bio-diesel

  • Phase I (2003-07):Demonstration Projects
  • Plantation on 400,000 hectares of land
  • Seed Collection
  • Oil Extraction
  • Transesterification
  • Blending
  • Marketing
  • Phase II (2007-2012)
  • Self Sustaining Expansion of Biodiesel
  • One hectare plantation likely to produce 3.75 MT of seed, yielding 1.2

MT of oil

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Jetropha: Preferred Plant Choice Jatropha Plantation in India Jatropha plant

Jatropha plantation on reclaimed desert using sewage waste water in Middle East

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Rural Employment, Environment and Energy Security

Oil Extraction Plant

  • Large scale employment potential exists for

Jatropha plantation and seed collection and extraction.

  • Seed yield of 4 Ton/Ha gives farmers Rs. 20000

income/ Ha/year from waste lands with support price of Rs. 5 per kg of seed.

  • Energy security and environment benefits due to

replacement of imported fossil oil

Rural Employment Trial Runs: 5-10% Bio-diesel by Indian Railways

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Network for Biomass Technology/Fuel Deployment

Household lighting, cooking equipments

Farm auto, component industry Construction and auto industries Banking industry

INPUTS Land Fertiliser Labour Capital Machinery Energy Water Rural infra- structure

Rural unemployed & under-employed Surplus land from foodgrains sufficiency Water conservation, river linking Fertiliser industry Rural Financing infrastructure RE technologies – solar, wind, fuel cells, bio-fuels etc Roads, godowns, heavy vehicles

BIOMASS

Social-economic setup

  • Animal waste
  • Human waste
  • Crop residues
  • Waste-wood
  • Forest produce
  • pipeline transport

network Technology change

  • agricrop productivity
  • farm m/c efficiency
  • Biomass and

biotechnology R&D

  • fuel enduse efficiency

OUTPUTS Biomass for power Biomass for Gas Biomass pellets for burning Biomass liquid fuels Biomass waste Setting up

  • f local

small scale industry base Hydrogen production Biomass fired electricity industry Community lighting and equipments Transportation

  • personal

vehicles

  • LCV, HCV

Farm equipment water pump, tractor fuel, agri processing Fertiliser use in fields + hand-made paper

Fuel-cells

Water processing + equipments industry

Land markets

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Biomass Technology Future in Different Scenarios

Penetration of Biomass in Electricity Sector

10 20 30 40 50 60 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Capacity (GW)

Scenarios

550 ppmv 650 ppmv Subsidy for Renewables IA2 (Reference)

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

AIM/CGE Model Development for India

  • Model Data Inputs
  • Energy and Environmental Security in South-Asia
  • South-Asia Energy Cooperation Scenarios
  • Model Results
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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Model Data Inputs

  • I/O Table India 1999 (Source , CSO)

– 115 X 115 Commodities – Disaggregated Oil & Gas into Oil & Gas – Aggregated to 35 X 35 Commodities

  • 4 Energy Sectors / Commodities

– Coal / Petroleum / Gas / Electricity

  • Emission Coefficients

– Source: Garg & Shukla, 2002 and India’s Initial NATCOM to UNFCCC (2004)

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Energy and Environment Security in South Asia

South-Asia Region

  • Among the fastest growing regions
  • Diverse geography, climate, energy resources,

politico-economic systems

  • High Fossil Dependence and Oil Imports
  • Environment Security Concerns

51% Oil (89%) Sri Lanka 33% Oil (55%) Pakistan 81% Oil (74%) Nepal 55% Imported oil Maldives 35% Coal (52%) India 95% Imported oil & coal Bhutan 47% Gas (65%) Bangladesh Non commercial energy (as % of total energy consumption) Dominant fuel in commercial energy consumption Country

56% 44%

Commercial Energy

Non-commercial Energy

43% 35% 13% 8% 1% Coal Petroleum Natural Gas Hydroelectricity Nuclear

Energy Mix in India

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

South-Asia Energy Cooperation Scenarios

What are the implications of South Asian regional cooperation on carbon emissions? Two Scenarios:

  • Scenario I : With Strong Regional Energy Co-operation
  • Scenario II: With Medium Regional Energy Co-operation

Regional Gas Markets

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Model Results – Static Case

  • Model Calibrated
  • Initial Year (1998) Results validated with literature

Sector CO2 Emissions Share (1998)

Sector Share CO2 (Million ton) Electricity 38% 388 Manufacturing 42% 424 Other 7% 72 Transport 13% 135 100% 1020

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Scenarios to Analyze

  • What does South Asian Regional Co-operation mean to gas supply?

– Pipelines from Mayanmar / Bangladesh, Turkmenistan & Iran – Foreign Investments in LNG facilities – Long-term Gas Contracts

  • Assumptions

– Higher co-operation enhances gas supply (cross country pipelines) – Higher co-operation reduces gas prices

(Billion INR/ PJ) 1998 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Oil Prices 2.44 4 2 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.7

Gas Prices

Reference Case 3.2 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.4 Strong Cooperation 3.2 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.2 Medium Cooperation 3.2 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Reference Case Results

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Years Index (2000=1) . GDP Energy Carbon

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

CO2 Emissions Scenarios

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

CO 2 (Mt) Strong Cooperation Reference Medium Cooperation

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

APEIS & CAPaBLE Project Interface

CAPaBLE Project

Integrated Assessment Model for Developing Countries and Analysis

  • f Mitigation Options and Sustainable Development Opportunities

APEIS Session was held at the CAPaBLE Workshop at ERI, Beijing, September 6, 2005.