APEIS Project: India Report Presented by P R Shukla Presented at - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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APEIS Project: India Report Presented by P R Shukla Presented at - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India APEIS Project: India Report Presented by P R Shukla Presented at The 10th International AIM Workshop, NIES, Tsukuba, Japan, March 10-12, 2005 Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Presented by

P R Shukla

Presented at The 10th International AIM Workshop, NIES, Tsukuba, Japan, March 10-12, 2005

APEIS Project: India Report

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Presentation Agenda

1. Strategic Database Development

  • Local Innovations (Examples)
  • Database Preparation
  • Indian SDB

2. AIM/CGE Model Development

  • Data Development
  • Indian Scenarios
  • Model Modification
  • Results

3. Interface with APN’s CAPaBLE Project

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Strategic Data Base (SDB)

  • Environmental Innovations in India (Examples)
  • Narrative Description
  • Quantitative Data Card
  • Socio Economic Scenarios
  • Model Applications
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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Vermiculture Compost

  • Earthworms maintain the fertility of the soil and ward off harmful pests
  • No chemical fertilizers and pesticides required
  • The know-how popularly known as "Surface Bed Method" has penetrated to over 1,00,000

farmers and 500 entrepreneurs

Local Environmental Innovation (Example)

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Bio-organic soil enricher

  • Made from biodegradable organic substances

through microbial conversion process

  • Results in higher yield
  • Improvement in soil aeration and water

holding capacity

  • Increased disease resistance and tolerance

Local Environmental Innovation (Example)

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

  • Literature searching
  • Interview with experts

Format

  • Present: Free
  • Future: Free form & Access

Collect Information about innovations and prepare narrative description cards

Preparation of Narrative Description Cards

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Narrative Description Card

Sales Campaign for Electric Vehicle Reva: India’s First Electric Car Reva is the India’s first zero-polluting electric vehicle heralds a new era of non-polluting, cost effective, quiet city transportation - A boon for city commuters. This elegant, light-yet rugged, two-door sedan comfortably seats 4 people. It has a range of 80 kilometers in stop- and-go city driving, and a top speed of 65 km/h. Reva runs 80 Km

  • n a single charge of 9 units of electricity. The cost of the vehicle is

approximately $ 7000. Eco-Friendly Being an Electric Vehicle, Reva is zero polluting and noiseless. It does not require frequent oil changes. Moreover Reva has high recyclable content High on Technology Two computers and the state-of-the-art electronics in the Reva provide an efficient energy management system with advanced computerized vehicle diagnostics. The regenerative braking in the Reva recovers useful electricity by putting it back into the

  • batteries. Regenerative braking lets the motor act as a generator, converting the

vehicle's momentum into electricity….

Narrative Description Card Example

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

From narrative description to data card

Translate narrative description to systematic and quantitative data card Capacity

  • 4 persons
  • Top Speed: 65Km/h

Energy Needed

  • 9KWh for 80 Km run

Emissions

  • No direct Emissions
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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Quantitative Data Card

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Prepare storylines and socio-economic scenarios Write Storyline Description Projections

  • Workout Scenario Numbers

Application to Selected Sector

Storylines and Socio-economic scenarios

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Description of Indian Storyline

IB1 scenario

In the IB1 scenario, the Indian economy is characterized by a shift towards a high level of environmental and social consciousness. There is an increased emphasis on environmental damage prevention and long‐term sustainability of socio‐economic developmental actions

  • n the part of government, business, media and the public. Heightened environmental

consciousness manifests itself in the positive impacts on natural resource use. Technological change plays an important role. Economic development is balanced and efforts to achieve equitable income distribution are

  • effective. Efficiency improvement measures, low and carbon free technologies and cleaner

fuels penetrate faster and infrastructure to facilitate these has to be built. Technological progress is accelerated, both in terms of indigenous efficiency improvements and earlier and higher penetration of advanced clean technologies. The scenario assumes more emphasis on development of renewable technologies. …….

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

13 3 15.0 14.6 15.3 BTKM Ship freight 38 3 42.7 44.0 45.3 BPKM Air passenger 481.0 520.0 500.0 541.7 BTKM Rail freight 588.3 643.0 628.0 659.4 BPKM Rail passenger 1086.4 1155.0 1233.0 1316.2 BTKM Total road freight 50 2 56.0 59.4 64.7 BTKM Light commercial vehicles 1036.2 1099.0 1173.6 1251.5 BTKM Heavy commercial vehicles 3590.0 4004.7 3969.5 4244.9 BPKM Total road passenger 3011.7 3340.2 3300.0 3522.3 BPKM Bus 322.8 376.5 376.5 413.5 BPKM Cars Tran port 11 1157 1192 1157 Million Population 7 6 9 % per year Economic Growth Rate Gene al IB2 IB1 IA2 IA1 2010 . . . 83 5 s r 13 3 15.0 14.6 15.3 BTKM Ship freight 38 3 42.7 44.0 45.3 BPKM Air passenger 481.0 520.0 500.0 541.7 BTKM Rail freight 588.3 643.0 628.0 659.4 BPKM Rail passenger 1086.4 1155.0 1233.0 1316.2 BTKM Total road freight 50 2 56.0 59.4 64.7 BTKM Light commercial vehicles 1036.2 1099.0 1173.6 1251.5 BTKM Heavy commercial vehicles 3590.0 4004.7 3969.5 4244.9 BPKM Total road passenger 3011.7 3340.2 3300.0 3522.3 BPKM Bus 322.8 376.5 376.5 413.5 BPKM Cars Tran port 11 1157 1192 1157 Million Population 7 6 9 % per year Economic Growth Rate Gene al IB2 IB1 IA2 IA1 2010 . . . 83 5 s r

Projections Corresponding to Storylines

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Simulate Environment Pressures Simulate future environmental pressures and analyze effect of strategies Affected Model Parameters Identify Extent of Effect Suitable modifications in the model parameters

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Passenger Transport Scenarios

Indian SDB

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

AIM/CGE Model Development for India

  • Data Development
  • Indian Scenarios
  • Model Modification
  • Results
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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Data Development

  • Indian I/O Table (CSO, 1995)

– Make Matrix – Use Matrix – Fixed Capital Formation Matrix

  • Energy Balance Table
  • Emission Coefficients

115 Commodities 35 Sectors 6 Energy Commodities 6 Energy Sectors

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Scenarios

  • Reference (Initial 6% annual growth)
  • High economic growth (Initial 9% annual growth)
  • Low economic growth (Initial 5% annual growth)
  • Efficiency improvement (Initial 3% annual improvement)
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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Reference Case Results

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Years Index (2000=1) . GDP Energy Carbon

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

GDP

5000 10000 15000 20000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

  • Rs. Billion

Low Growth Reference High Growth 25000

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

CO2 Emissions

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

CO 2 (Mt) High Growth Low Growth Reference Energy Eff.

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

CO2 Intensity of GDP

CO2 Intensity: Ton/Thousand Rs. (1995)

0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

CO2 Intensity

High Growth Low Growth Reference Energy Eff.

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

APEIS & CAPaBLE Project Interface

CAPaBLE Project

Integrated Assessment Model for Developing Countries and Analysis

  • f Mitigation Options and Sustainable Development Opportunities

APEIS Session was held at the CAPaBLE Workshop at AIT, Bangkok