Overview of APEIS-IEA FY2003 Research Progress and FY2004 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Overview of APEIS-IEA FY2003 Research Progress and FY2004 Implementation Plan 9 th AIM International Workshop 12-14 March 2004 NIES, Tsukuba 1

Integrated Environmental Assessments (IEA) AIM Model Development for APEIS AIM Model Development for APEIS Strategic database Strategic database • A set of integrated assessment models as major tools of AIM/ AIM/ Energy /Technology/Country AIM/ Ecosystem /Water/Impact AIM/ APEIS, including an environment-economy model, an Institution, Management, Temperature Temperature Temperature Temperature A bottom-up A set of ecosystem models, Precipitation Precipitation Precipitation Precipitation Sunshine Sunshine Sunshine Sunshine including a vegetation technology Technology, Adaptation ecosystem/health impact model, a water selection model of dynamics model, a water Land use Land use Land use Land use Water resource Water resource Water resource Water resource resource model, an energy use and Database agricultural productivity emissions at Socio-economic Socio-economic Socio-economic Socio-economic Crop Crop Crop Crop indicator indicator indicator indicator Productivity Productivity Productivity Productivity country and local model and a health impact resource/agriculture model, a material/recycle-economy model level Impact on food demand Impact on food demand Impact on food demand Impact on food demand Emission Intensity of SO Emission Intensity of SO Emission Intensity of SO 2 in China 2 in China 2 in China Scenario Scenario Adaptation strategy Adaptation strategy Adaptation strategy Adaptation strategy model and an energy technology model Assessment Assessment AIM/Bottom-up AIM/Top-down AIM/End -use AIM/End -use AIM/Top -down AIM Family A bottom-up technology Country Based Country Based A general-equilibrium-type World Economic & land use model for Technology Model Technology Model world economic model Model • Strategic database as well as indicators for APEIS use Asia-Pacific region Model Base Future Future Future Future AIM/Material AIM/Material AIM/Trend Environmental Environmental Environmental economic trend economic trend economic trend economic trend Environ Environ - - burden burden burden mental mental Burden Burden Environmental Environmental Environmental Future Future Future Future • Systematic projections of environmental trends as well Industry Industry Industry environmental trend environmental trend environmental trend environmental trend Green Purchase Green Purchase Industry Industry Korea Korea Korea An environment- One country CGE model Developed as a Consumer Consumer Consumer economy interacted China China China with CO2 and material communication communication India India India model with material Recycle Recycle Recycle Environment Fund Environment Fund balance, interface with platform in order Wastes Wastes balance and recycling as assessments of innovation needs and innovation Strategy environmental to construct to construct Thailand Thailand Thailand Japan Japan Japan Environmental Environmental Environmental process modules technology model Burden Burden Burden Asia -pacific Asia - Index Base Environmental Industry Environmental Industry (waste management, recycle) (waste management, recycle) regional environmental Option Base outlook supported with Technology assessment Technology assessment Technology assessment Technology needs Technology needs Technology needs options based on the above models and database multi - multi -regional environment -economic CGE model Research on new technologies Research on new technologies Research on new technologies 2

FY2003 Progress of APEIS-IEA (i) Provision of a set of integrated assessment models (second version) : ・ Extended Extended version of AIM/Trend for the World the World ・ Advanced Advanced version of AIM/CGE ・ Advanced Advanced version of AIM/Material ・ Advanced Advanced version of AIM/Energy for extended countries extended countries ・ Preliminary version of integrated integrated AIM/Ecosystem ・ Advanced Advanced version of AIM/Water (ii) Provision of advanced advanced version of strategic database with indicators focusing on Environmental Efficiency focusing on Environmental Efficiency (iii) Provision of projections of environmental trends as well as assessments of innovative options focusing on focusing on selected countries selected countries (iv) Holding Training Workshop at AIT, Thailand AIT, Thailand 3

Asia- -Pacific Integrated Model (AIM) for APEIS Pacific Integrated Model (AIM) for APEIS Asia AIM/Energy /Technology/Country AIM/Ecosystem /Water/Impact Temperature A bottom-up A set of ecosystem Precipitation Sunshine technology selection models, including a model of energy use vegetation dynamics Land use Water resource and emissions at model, a water resource country and local level model, an agricultural Socio-economic Crop indicator Productivity productivity model and Impact on food demand a health impact model Adaptation strategy AIM/Bottom-up AIM/Top-down AIM Family AIM Family A bottom-up technology A general-equilibrium- & land use model for type world economic Asia-Pacific region model Future AIM/Material AIM/Trend Environmental Environ- burden economic trend mental Burden Environmental Future Industry environmental trend Green Purchase Industry Korea A environment- A reduced-form Consumer economy integrated model to project China India Environment Fund model with material future socio- Recycle Wastes balance and recycling economic Thailand Japan Environmental Burden process modules trends and Environmental Industry (waste management, recycle) environmental change for all 4 Technology assessment Technology needs 42 countries Research on new technologies

Integrated Environmental Assessment Integrated Environmental Assessment Application Model Policy Needs AIM/Energy Assessment of Air Pollution Clean Air for Major Cities Reduction Policies in Asia-Pacific (Emission Projection, (Beijing Clean Air Project) +Air Diffusion Health Impacts) +CGE Mitigation/Adaptation Assessment of Technology Options for Climate Change Strategy of Climate Change +Top-down Long-term Emission Scenarios CDM assessment for China Strategy of Environmental Assessment of Effects of AIM/Material Environmental Constraints Industry, Waste Treatment, and Investments Water Pollution, Climate Change, Health Policy, etc. Trade-off between air pollution and health impacts 5

Integrated Environmental Assessment Integrated Environmental Assessment Application Model Policy Needs Assessment of Natural Capital, Strategy for Ecosystem AIM/Ecosystem Landuse Change, Water Stress, Conservation Energy Supply etc. Projection of Greenhouse Gas Communication Tool for AIM/Trend Policy makers Emission (GHG), Water Supply and Demand, Wastes, etc. Assessment of Free Trade Strategy for Environmental AIM/CGE Agreement Policy through Trade Mitigation Strategy of GHG Stabilization Scenarios Climate Change Strategic Strategy of Environmental Assessment of innovation Database technologies under different Industry, Waste Treatment, socio-economic scenarios Water Pollution, Climate Change, etc. 6