Overview of APEIS-IEA FY2003 Research Progress and FY2004 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Overview of APEIS-IEA FY2003 Research Progress and FY2004 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Overview of APEIS-IEA FY2003 Research Progress and FY2004 Implementation Plan 9 th AIM International Workshop 12-14 March 2004 NIES, Tsukuba 1 Integrated Environmental Assessments (IEA) AIM Model Development for APEIS AIM Model Development

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SLIDE 1

1

Overview of APEIS-IEA

FY2003 Research Progress and FY2004 Implementation Plan

9th AIM International Workshop 12-14 March 2004 NIES, Tsukuba

slide-2
SLIDE 2

2

Scenario Scenario Assessment Assessment

Integrated Environmental Assessments (IEA)

Land use Temperature Precipitation Sunshine Water resource Crop Productivity Socio-economic indicator Impact on food demand Adaptation strategy

AIM/

A set of ecosystem models, including a vegetation dynamics model, a water resource model, an agricultural productivity model and a health impact model Developed as a communication platform in order to construct Asia -pacific regional environmental

  • utlook supported with

multi -regional environment

Future economic trend Future environmental trend

India Thailand Korea Japan China

AIM/Trend

Industry Green Purchase Environ
  • mental
Burden Environment Fund Environmental Industry (waste management, recycle) Wastes Environmental Burden Recycle Technology needs Technology assessment Environmental Industry Environmental burden Consumer Research on new technologies

AIM/Material

One country CGE model with CO2 and material balance, interface with environmental technology model

Emission Intensity of SO

2 in China

AIM/

A bottom-up technology selection model of energy use and emissions at country and local level

AIM/End -use

Country Based Technology Model

AIM/Top -down

World Economic Model

Land use Temperature Precipitation Sunshine Water resource Crop Productivity Socio-economic indicator Impact on food demand Adaptation strategy Land use Temperature Precipitation Sunshine Water resource Crop Productivity Socio-economic indicator Impact on food demand Adaptation strategy Land use Temperature Precipitation Sunshine Water resource Crop Productivity Socio-economic indicator Impact on food demand Adaptation strategy

AIM/Ecosystem/Water/Impact

communication to construct Asia - multi -

  • economic CGE model
Future economic trend Future environmental trend

India Thailand Korea Japan China

Future economic trend Future economic trend Future environmental trend Future environmental trend

India Thailand Korea Japan China

Environmental Burden Recycle Technology needs Technology assessment Environmental Industry Environmental burden Consumer Research on new technologies Industry Green Purchase Environ
  • mental
Burden Environment Fund Environmental Industry (waste management, recycle) Wastes Environmental Burden Recycle Technology needs Technology assessment Environmental Industry Environmental burden Consumer Research on new technologies

AIM/Material

An environment- economy interacted model with material balance and recycling process modules

Emission Intensity of SO

2 in China

Emission Intensity of SO

2 in China

AIM/Energy/Technology/Country AIM/End -use

Country Based Technology Model A bottom-up technology & land use model for Asia-Pacific region

AIM/Bottom-up

A general-equilibrium-type world economic model

AIM/Top-down

AIM Family

AIM Model Development for APEIS AIM Model Development for APEIS Strategic database Strategic database Institution, Management, Technology, Adaptation Database Index Base Model Base Strategy Option Base

  • A set of integrated assessment models as major tools of

APEIS, including an environment-economy model, an ecosystem/health impact model, a water resource/agriculture model, a material/recycle-economy model and an energy technology model

  • Strategic database as well as indicators for APEIS use
  • Systematic projections of environmental trends as well

as assessments of innovation needs and innovation

  • ptions based on the above models and database
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SLIDE 3

3

FY2003 Progress of APEIS-IEA

(i) Provision of a set of integrated assessment models (second version) : ・Extended Extended version of AIM/Trend for the World the World ・Advanced Advanced version of AIM/CGE ・Advanced Advanced version of AIM/Material ・Advanced Advanced version of AIM/Energy for extended countries extended countries ・Preliminary version of integrated integrated AIM/Ecosystem ・Advanced Advanced version of AIM/Water (ii) Provision of advanced advanced version of strategic database with indicators focusing on Environmental Efficiency focusing on Environmental Efficiency (iii) Provision of projections of environmental trends as well as assessments of innovative options focusing on focusing on selected countries selected countries (iv) Holding Training Workshop at AIT, Thailand AIT, Thailand

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SLIDE 4

4

Asia Asia-

  • Pacific Integrated Model (AIM) for APEIS

Pacific Integrated Model (AIM) for APEIS

Land use Temperature Precipitation Sunshine Water resource Crop Productivity Socio-economic indicator Impact on food demand Adaptation strategy

AIM/Ecosystem/Water/Impact

A set of ecosystem models, including a vegetation dynamics model, a water resource model, an agricultural productivity model and a health impact model A reduced-form model to project future socio- economic trends and environmental change for all 42 countries

Future economic trend Future environmental trend

India Thailand Korea Japan China

AIM/Trend

Industry Green Purchase Environ- mental Burden Environment Fund Environmental Industry (waste management, recycle) Wastes Environmental Burden Recycle Technology needs Technology assessment Environmental Industry Environmental burden Consumer Research on new technologies

AIM/Material

A environment- economy integrated model with material balance and recycling process modules

AIM/Energy/Technology/Country

A bottom-up technology selection model of energy use and emissions at country and local level

AIM/Bottom-up

A bottom-up technology & land use model for Asia-Pacific region

AIM/Top-down

A general-equilibrium- type world economic model

AIM Family AIM Family

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SLIDE 5

5

AIM/Energy AIM/Material

Model

Clean Air for Major Cities in Asia-Pacific (Beijing Clean Air Project) Mitigation/Adaptation Strategy of Climate Change Strategy of Environmental Industry, Waste Treatment, Water Pollution, Climate Change, Health Policy, etc.

Application Policy Needs

Assessment of Air Pollution Reduction Policies (Emission Projection, Diffusion Health Impacts) Assessment of Technology Options for Climate Change Long-term Emission Scenarios CDM assessment for China Assessment of Effects of Environmental Constraints and Investments Trade-off between air pollution and health impacts +CGE

Integrated Environmental Assessment Integrated Environmental Assessment

+Air +Top-down

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SLIDE 6

6

Model

Strategy for Ecosystem Conservation Communication Tool for Policy makers Strategy for Environmental Policy through Trade Mitigation Strategy of Climate Change Strategy of Environmental Industry, Waste Treatment, Water Pollution, Climate Change, etc.

Application Policy Needs

Assessment of Natural Capital, Landuse Change, Water Stress, Energy Supply etc. Projection of Greenhouse Gas Emission (GHG), Water Supply and Demand, Wastes, etc. Assessment of Free Trade Agreement GHG Stabilization Scenarios Assessment of innovation technologies under different socio-economic scenarios

Integrated Environmental Assessment Integrated Environmental Assessment

AIM/Ecosystem AIM/Trend AIM/CGE Strategic Database

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SLIDE 7

7

200 400 600 800 1000 1200

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 Accumulated Emission Reduction, Mt-C

COst, US$/t-C Agriculture Industry Transport Service Urban Rural

Emission reduction potential by Sector in 2010

  • 20

20 40 60 80

Steel Ammonia Ethylene fertilizer Calcium Cement Brick Glass Aluminum Copper Paper Commerce Transport Urban Rural Power Other

Mt-C

No Cost Less than US$50/t-C

G D P Loss

  • 0. 0%
  • 0. 5%
  • 1. 0%
  • 1. 5%
  • 2. 0%
  • 2. 5%

2 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 2 6 2 7 2 8 2 9 2 1 Y ear % C O 2 O nl y M ul t i -G as Tot al G H G em i ssi on 5 10 15 20 25 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Y ear Gt-Ce R ef erence C O 2 M i t i gat i on M ul t i -G as

Land use Temperature Precipitation Sunshine Water resource Crop Productivity Socio-economic indicator Impact on food demand Adaptation strategy A set of ecosystem models, including a vegetation dynamics model, a water resource model, an agricultural productivity model and a health impact model A reduced-form model to project future socio- economic trends and environmental change for all 42 countries Future economic trend Future environmental trend India Thailand Korea Japan China

AIM/Trend

Industry Green Purchase Environ- mental Burden Environment Fund Environmental Industry (waste management, recycle) Wastes Environmental Burden Recycle Technology needs Technology assessment Environmental Industry Environmental burden Consumer Research on new technologies

AIM/Material

A environment- economy integrated model with material balance and recycling process modules Emission Intensity of SO2 in China A bottom-up technology selection model of energy use and emissions at country and local level

AIM/Bottom-up

A simple technology selection model for Asia-Pacific region

AIM/Top-down

A general-equilibrium- type world economic model

AIM Family AIM Family

Land use Temperature Precipitation Sunshine Water resource Crop Productivity Socio-economic indicator Impact on food demand Adaptation strategy Land use Temperature Precipitation Sunshine Water resource Crop Productivity Socio-economic indicator Impact on food demand Adaptation strategy Land use Temperature Precipitation Sunshine Water resource Crop Productivity Socio-economic indicator Impact on food demand Adaptation strategy A set of ecosystem models, including a vegetation dynamics model, a water resource model, an agricultural productivity model and a health impact model A reduced-form model to project future socio- economic trends and environmental change for all 42 countries Future economic trend Future environmental trend India Thailand Korea Japan China

AIM/Trend

A reduced-form model to project future socio- economic trends and environmental change for all 42 countries Future economic trend Future environmental trend India Thailand Korea Japan China Future economic trend Future economic trend Future environmental trend Future environmental trend India Thailand Korea Japan China

AIM/Trend

Industry Green Purchase Environ- mental Burden Environment Fund Environmental Industry (waste management, recycle) Wastes Environmental Burden Recycle Technology needs Technology assessment Environmental Industry Environmental burden Consumer Research on new technologies

AIM/Material

A environment- economy integrated model with material balance and recycling process modules Industry Green Purchase Environ- mental Burden Environment Fund Environmental Industry (waste management, recycle) Wastes Environmental Burden Recycle Technology needs Technology assessment Environmental Industry Environmental burden Consumer Research on new technologies Industry Green Purchase Environ- mental Burden Environment Fund Environmental Industry (waste management, recycle) Wastes Environmental Burden Recycle Technology needs Technology assessment Environmental Industry Environmental burden Consumer Research on new technologies

AIM/Material

A environment- economy integrated model with material balance and recycling process modules Emission Intensity of SO2 in China Emission Intensity of SO2 in China A bottom-up technology selection model of energy use and emissions at country and local level

AIM/Bottom-up

A simple technology selection model for Asia-Pacific region

AIM/Bottom-up

A simple technology selection model for Asia-Pacific region

AIM/Bottom-up

A simple technology selection model for Asia-Pacific region

AIM/Top-down

A general-equilibrium- type world economic model

AIM/Top-down

A general-equilibrium- type world economic model

AIM/Top-down

A general-equilibrium- type world economic model

AIM Family AIM Family

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SLIDE 8

8

Implications of Natural Gas Import Limitations (NGIL) in Thailand

  • There are limited resources of Natural Gas in
  • Thailand. Impact on energy mix due to limits on

Natural gas imports has been analyzed using the AIM/Enduse model of Thailand.

  • In cases with smaller availability of natural gas

through imports, more oil and biomass resource would have to be used in Thailand while coal use would remain almost unaffected (see figures).

Biomass Use under NGIL

  • 10

20 30 40 50 60 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Year NGIL10 NGIL20 NGIL30 NGIL40 Base case

Oil Use under NGIL

  • 10

20 30 40 50 60

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Year NGIL10 NGIL20 NGIL30 NGIL40 Base case

Coal Use under NGIL

  • 10

20 30 40 50 60 70 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Year NGIL10 NGIL20 NGIL30 NGIL40 Base case

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SLIDE 9

9

Reference case results Reference case results

1 2 3 4 5 1993 2000 2010 2020 2030 Y ear I ndex ( 1993=1) G D P C O 2 em i ssi

  • ns

S O 2 em i ssi

  • ns

l and for agri cul ture, pasture and forest w ater suppl y w ater pol l uti

  • n

Environmental Constraints

Land use Temperature Precipitation Sunshine Water resource Crop Productivity Socio-economic indicator Impact on food demand Adaptation strategy A set of ecosystem models, including a vegetation dynamics model, a water resource model, an agricultural productivity model and a health impact model A reduced-form model to project future socio- economic trends and environmental change for all 42 countries Future economic trend Future environmental trend India Thailand Korea Japan China

AIM/Trend

Industry Green Purchase Environ- mental Burden Environment Fund Environmental Industry (waste management, recycle) Wastes Environmental Burden Recycle Technology needs Technology assessment Environmental Industry Environmental burden Consumer Research on new technologies

AIM/Material

nment- integrated th material nd recycling
  • dules
Emission Intensity of SO2 in China
  • up
y selection energy use ssions at nd local level

AIM/Bottom-up

A simple technology selection model for Asia-Pacific region

AIM/Top-down

A general-equilibrium- type world economic model

AIM Family AIM Family

Land use Temperature Precipitation Sunshine Water resource Crop Productivity Socio-economic indicator Impact on food demand Adaptation strategy Land use Temperature Precipitation Sunshine Water resource Crop Productivity Socio-economic indicator Impact on food demand Adaptation strategy Land use Temperature Precipitation Sunshine Water resource Crop Productivity Socio-economic indicator Impact on food demand Adaptation strategy A set of ecosystem models, including a vegetation dynamics model, a water resource model, an agricultural productivity model and a health impact model A reduced-form model to project future socio- economic trends and environmental change for all 42 countries Future economic trend Future environmental trend India Thailand Korea Japan China

AIM/Trend

A reduced-form model to project future socio- economic trends and environmental change for all 42 countries Future economic trend Future environmental trend India Thailand Korea Japan China Future economic trend Future economic trend Future environmental trend Future environmental trend India Thailand Korea Japan China

AIM/Trend

Industry Green Purchase Environ- mental Burden Environment Fund Environmental Industry (waste management, recycle) Wastes Environmental Burden Recycle Technology needs Technology assessment Environmental Industry Environmental burden Consumer Research on new technologies

AIM/Material

nment- integrated th material nd recycling
  • dules
Industry Green Purchase Environ- mental Burden Environment Fund Environmental Industry (waste management, recycle) Wastes Environmental Burden Recycle Technology needs Technology assessment Environmental Industry Environmental burden Consumer Research on new technologies Industry Green Purchase Environ- mental Burden Environment Fund Environmental Industry (waste management, recycle) Wastes Environmental Burden Recycle Technology needs Technology assessment Environmental Industry Environmental burden Consumer Research on new technologies

AIM/Material

nment- integrated th material nd recycling
  • dules
Emission Intensity of SO2 in China Emission Intensity of SO2 in China
  • up
y selection energy use ssions at nd local level

AIM/Bottom-up

A simple technology selection model for Asia-Pacific region

AIM/Bottom-up

A simple technology selection model for Asia-Pacific region

AIM/Bottom-up

A simple technology selection model for Asia-Pacific region

AIM/Top-down

A general-equilibrium- type world economic model

AIM/Top-down

A general-equilibrium- type world economic model

AIM/Top-down

A general-equilibrium- type world economic model

AIM Family AIM Family

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SLIDE 10

10

Economic Impact from Economic Impact from Environmental Constraints Environmental Constraints

  • 3.5
  • 3.0
  • 2.5
  • 2.0
  • 1.5
  • 1.0
  • 0.5

0.0 0.5 1993 2000 2010 2020 2030 Year GDP change %

  • env. const

Environmental constraints ➜Income reduction

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SLIDE 11

11

Effects of Environmental Effects of Environmental Investments Investments

  • 3.5
  • 3.0
  • 2.5
  • 2.0
  • 1.5
  • 1.0
  • 0.5

0.0 0.5 1993 2000 2010 2020 2030 Year GDP change %

  • env. const
  • env. const + early investment

Environmental investments ➜mitigation of constraints ➜Income increase Environmental inv. ➜Reduction of inputs for economic activity ➜Costs

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SLIDE 12

12

Cont ribut ion t o Millennium Cont ribut ion t o Millennium Ecosyst em Assessment Ecosyst em Assessment

Quantification of global long-term scenarios

  • f natural and social environment

AIM models utilized for MA

AIM/Ecosystem

SOx, NOx, Land use change, Biomass energy

AIM/Water

Country-wise water-use (withdrawal and consumption), Country-wise renewable water resource, Spatial distribution of water-use and renewable water resources, Basin-wise water stress index

AIM/Agriculture

Potential crop productivity of Rice, Wheat and Maize

Land use Temperature Precipitation Sunshine Water resource Crop Productivity Socio-economic indicator Impact on food demand Adaptation strategy

AIM/Ecosystem/Water/Impact

A set of ecosystem models, including a vegetation dynamics model, a water resource model, an agricultural productivity model and a health impact model A reduced-form model to project future socio- economic trends and environmental change for all 42 countries Future economic trend Future environmental trend India Thailand Korea Japan China

AIM/Trend

Industry Green Purchase Environ- mental Burden Environment Fund Environmental Industry (waste management, recycle) Wastes Environmental Burden Recycle Technology needs Technology assessment Environmental Industry Environmental burden Consumer Research on new technologies

AIM/Material

A environment- economy integrated model with material balance and recycling process modules Emission Intensity of SO2 in China

AIM/Energy/Technology/Country

A bottom-up technology selection model of energy use and emissions at country and local level

AIM/Bottom-up

A simple technology selection model for Asia-Pacific region

AIM/Top-down

A general-equilibrium- type world economic model

AIM Family AIM Family

Land use Temperature Precipitation Sunshine Water resource Crop Productivity Socio-economic indicator Impact on food demand Adaptation strategy Land use Temperature Precipitation Sunshine Water resource Crop Productivity Socio-economic indicator Impact on food demand Adaptation strategy Land use Temperature Precipitation Sunshine Water resource Crop Productivity Socio-economic indicator Impact on food demand Adaptation strategy

AIM/Ecosystem/Water/Impact

A set of ecosystem models, including a vegetation dynamics model, a water resource model, an agricultural productivity model and a health impact model A reduced-form model to project future socio- economic trends and environmental change for all 42 countries Future economic trend Future environmental trend India Thailand Korea Japan China

AIM/Trend

A reduced-form model to project future socio- economic trends and environmental change for all 42 countries Future economic trend Future environmental trend India Thailand Korea Japan China Future economic trend Future economic trend Future environmental trend Future environmental trend India Thailand Korea Japan China

AIM/Trend

Industry Green Purchase Environ- mental Burden Environment Fund Environmental Industry (waste management, recycle) Wastes Environmental Burden Recycle Technology needs Technology assessment Environmental Industry Environmental burden Consumer Research on new technologies

AIM/Material

A environment- economy integrated model with material balance and recycling process modules Industry Green Purchase Environ- mental Burden Environment Fund Environmental Industry (waste management, recycle) Wastes Environmental Burden Recycle Technology needs Technology assessment Environmental Industry Environmental burden Consumer Research on new technologies Industry Green Purchase Environ- mental Burden Environment Fund Environmental Industry (waste management, recycle) Wastes Environmental Burden Recycle Technology needs Technology assessment Environmental Industry Environmental burden Consumer Research on new technologies

AIM/Material

A environment- economy integrated model with material balance and recycling process modules Emission Intensity of SO2 in China Emission Intensity of SO2 in China

AIM/Energy/Technology/Country

A bottom-up technology selection model of energy use and emissions at country and local level

AIM/Bottom-up

A simple technology selection model for Asia-Pacific region

AIM/Bottom-up

A simple technology selection model for Asia-Pacific region

AIM/Bottom-up

A simple technology selection model for Asia-Pacific region

AIM/Top-down

A general-equilibrium- type world economic model

AIM/Top-down

A general-equilibrium- type world economic model

AIM/Top-down

A general-equilibrium- type world economic model

AIM Family AIM Family

slide-13
SLIDE 13

13

Simulat ion Result s (Forest area) Simulat ion Result s (Forest area)

OECD 720000 760000 800000 840000 880000 2000 2025 2050 Year Forest (1000ha) Asia 250000 300000 350000 400000 2000 2025 2050 Year Forest (1000ha) Global 3000000 3200000 3400000 3600000 3800000 4000000 2000 2025 2050 Year Forest (1000ha)

In any scenario, forest area decrease at the beginning of 21st century. Globally, forest in 2050 is smaller than that in 2000. Pressure from other land use; agriculture, pasture & biomass plantation GO: Pressure from meat demand & plantation biomass OS & AM (-2010): Pressure from general food demand Pressure from globalization; GO & TG Global Orchestration (GO) Order from Strength (OS) Technogarden (TG) Adapting Mosaic (AM) global regional env econ GO TG OS AM AIM/Ecosystem

slide-14
SLIDE 14

14 2000 2100

Water withdrawal per unit area in 2000 and 2100

  • Developing countries: Water demand

density will increase especially under GO and OS.

  • China & East Europe: Water demand

increase under GO because of quite high economic growth rate.

  • Africa, Middle East & South Asia: Water

demand increase under OS because of quite high population growth rate.

0 100 101 102 103 (mm/year)

Wat er Wit hdrawal (t ot al) Wat er Wit hdrawal (t ot al)

AIM/Water Global Orchestration Order from Strength Technogarden Adapting Mosaic

slide-15
SLIDE 15

15

Energy related GHG emissions Energy related GHG emissions

CO2 emissions share of Asia will be increasing from 32% in 2000 to 44% in 2050.

5 10 15 20 25 20 20 10 20 20 20 30 20 40 20 50 Energy r el ated C O 2 em i ssi

  • ns

( G t-C /yr ) AFR LAM M EA EEU EU R C AN U S A S O A S EA EAA I ND C H N O C N J PN . 1 . 2 . 3 . 4 . 5 . 6 20 20 10 20 20 20 30 20 40 20 50 Ener gy r el ated C H 4 em i ssi

  • ns

( G t-C eq/yr ) AFR LAM M EA EEU EU R C AN U S A S O A S EA EAA I ND C H N O C N J PN

CO2 emissions CH4 emissions Energy related CH4 emissions share of Asia will be around 60%.

Land use Temperature Precipitation Sunshine Water resource Crop Productivity Socio-economic indicator Impact on food demand Adaptation strategy

AIM/Ecosystem/Water/Impact

A set of ecosystem models, including a vegetation dynamics model, a water resource model, an agricultural productivity model and a health impact model A reduced-form model to project future socio- economic trends and environmental change for all 42 countries Future economic trend Future environmental trend India Thailand Korea Japan China

AIM/Trend

Industry Green Purchase Environ- mental Burden Environment Fund Environmental Industry (waste management, recycle) Wastes Environmental Burden Recycle Technology needs Technology assessment Environmental Industry Environmental burden Consumer Research on new technologies

AIM/Material

A environment- economy integrated model with material balance and recycling process modules Emission Intensity of SO2 in China

AIM/Energy/Technology/Country

A bottom-up technology selection model of energy use and emissions at country and local level

AIM/Bottom-up

A simple technology selection model for Asia-Pacific region

AIM/Top-down

A general-equilibrium- type world economic model

AIM Family AIM Family

Land use Temperature Precipitation Sunshine Water resource Crop Productivity Socio-economic indicator Impact on food demand Adaptation strategy Land use Temperature Precipitation Sunshine Water resource Crop Productivity Socio-economic indicator Impact on food demand Adaptation strategy Land use Temperature Precipitation Sunshine Water resource Crop Productivity Socio-economic indicator Impact on food demand Adaptation strategy

AIM/Ecosystem/Water/Impact

A set of ecosystem models, including a vegetation dynamics model, a water resource model, an agricultural productivity model and a health impact model A reduced-form model to project future socio- economic trends and environmental change for all 42 countries Future economic trend Future environmental trend India Thailand Korea Japan China

AIM/Trend

A reduced-form model to project future socio- economic trends and environmental change for all 42 countries Future economic trend Future environmental trend India Thailand Korea Japan China Future economic trend Future economic trend Future environmental trend Future environmental trend India Thailand Korea Japan China

AIM/Trend

Industry Green Purchase Environ- mental Burden Environment Fund Environmental Industry (waste management, recycle) Wastes Environmental Burden Recycle Technology needs Technology assessment Environmental Industry Environmental burden Consumer Research on new technologies

AIM/Material

A environment- economy integrated model with material balance and recycling process modules Industry Green Purchase Environ- mental Burden Environment Fund Environmental Industry (waste management, recycle) Wastes Environmental Burden Recycle Technology needs Technology assessment Environmental Industry Environmental burden Consumer Research on new technologies Industry Green Purchase Environ- mental Burden Environment Fund Environmental Industry (waste management, recycle) Wastes Environmental Burden Recycle Technology needs Technology assessment Environmental Industry Environmental burden Consumer Research on new technologies

AIM/Material

A environment- economy integrated model with material balance and recycling process modules Emission Intensity of SO2 in China Emission Intensity of SO2 in China

AIM/Energy/Technology/Country

A bottom-up technology selection model of energy use and emissions at country and local level

AIM/Bottom-up

A simple technology selection model for Asia-Pacific region

AIM/Bottom-up

A simple technology selection model for Asia-Pacific region

AIM/Bottom-up

A simple technology selection model for Asia-Pacific region

AIM/Top-down

A general-equilibrium- type world economic model

AIM/Top-down

A general-equilibrium- type world economic model

AIM/Top-down

A general-equilibrium- type world economic model

AIM Family AIM Family

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SLIDE 16

16

  • 1.

% . % 1. % 2. % 3. % 4. % 5. % 6. % J PN KO R C H N AS EAN7 I DI ANZ NAM EU R FS U RO W W or l d G DP di f f er ence ( %)

FTA impacts on Asia

GDP change in 2010

Land use Temperature Precipitation Sunshine Water resource Crop Productivity Socio-economic indicator Impact on food demand Adaptation strategy

AIM/Ecosystem/Water/Impact

A set of ecosystem models, including a vegetation dynamics model, a water resource model, an agricultural productivity model and a health impact model A reduced-form model to project future socio- economic trends and environmental change for all 42 countries Future economic trend Future environmental trend India Thailand Korea Japan China

AIM/Trend

Industry Green Purchase Environ- mental Burden Environment Fund Environmental Industry (waste management, recycle) Wastes Environmental Burden Recycle Technology needs Technology assessment Environmental Industry Environmental burden Consumer Research on new technologies

AIM/Material

environment- conomy integrated model with material balance and recycling process modules Emission Intensity of SO2 in China

AIM/Energy/Technology/Country

bottom-up technology selection
  • del of energy use
and emissions at country and local level

AIM/Bottom-up

A simple technology selection model for Asia-Pacific region

AIM/Top-down

A general-equilibrium- type world economic model

AIM Family AIM Family

Land use Temperature Precipitation Sunshine Water resource Crop Productivity Socio-economic indicator Impact on food demand Adaptation strategy Land use Temperature Precipitation Sunshine Water resource Crop Productivity Socio-economic indicator Impact on food demand Adaptation strategy Land use Temperature Precipitation Sunshine Water resource Crop Productivity Socio-economic indicator Impact on food demand Adaptation strategy

AIM/Ecosystem/Water/Impact

A set of ecosystem models, including a vegetation dynamics model, a water resource model, an agricultural productivity model and a health impact model A reduced-form model to project future socio- economic trends and environmental change for all 42 countries Future economic trend Future environmental trend India Thailand Korea Japan China

AIM/Trend

A reduced-form model to project future socio- economic trends and environmental change for all 42 countries Future economic trend Future environmental trend India Thailand Korea Japan China Future economic trend Future economic trend Future environmental trend Future environmental trend India Thailand Korea Japan China

AIM/Trend

Industry Green Purchase Environ- mental Burden Environment Fund Environmental Industry (waste management, recycle) Wastes Environmental Burden Recycle Technology needs Technology assessment Environmental Industry Environmental burden Consumer Research on new technologies

AIM/Material

environment- conomy integrated model with material balance and recycling process modules Industry Green Purchase Environ- mental Burden Environment Fund Environmental Industry (waste management, recycle) Wastes Environmental Burden Recycle Technology needs Technology assessment Environmental Industry Environmental burden Consumer Research on new technologies Industry Green Purchase Environ- mental Burden Environment Fund Environmental Industry (waste management, recycle) Wastes Environmental Burden Recycle Technology needs Technology assessment Environmental Industry Environmental burden Consumer Research on new technologies

AIM/Material

environment- conomy integrated model with material balance and recycling process modules Emission Intensity of SO2 in China Emission Intensity of SO2 in China

AIM/Energy/Technology/Country

bottom-up technology selection
  • del of energy use
and emissions at country and local level

AIM/Bottom-up

A simple technology selection model for Asia-Pacific region

AIM/Bottom-up

A simple technology selection model for Asia-Pacific region

AIM/Bottom-up

A simple technology selection model for Asia-Pacific region

AIM/Top-down

A general-equilibrium- type world economic model

AIM/Top-down

A general-equilibrium- type world economic model

AIM/Top-down

A general-equilibrium- type world economic model

AIM Family AIM Family

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SLIDE 17

17

  • 4.

%

  • 2.

% . % 2. % 4. % 6. % 8 . % 10 . % J PN KO R C H N AS EAN7 I DI ANZ NAM EU R FS U RO W W or l d S O 2 em i ssi

  • ns

di f f er ence ( %)

FTA impacts on Asia

SO2 emissions change in 2010

slide-18
SLIDE 18

18

Asia 250000 300000 350000 400000 2000 2025 2050 Year F

  • re

s t (1 h a )

Integrated Assessment of Environmental Innovation Options for Sustainable Development

  • 1.

% . % 1. % 2. % 3. % 4. % 5. % 6. % J PN KO R C H N AS EAN7 I DI ANZ NAM EU R FS U RO W W or l d G D P di f f erence ( % )

GDP change in 2010

N O x Em i ssi on i n C hi na

  • 0. 0E+00
  • 5. 0E+12
  • 1. 0E+13
  • 1. 5E+13
  • 2. 0E+13
  • 2. 5E+13
  • 3. 0E+13
  • 3. 5E+13

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 Year gNOx Pol i cy M ar ket Base

  • 3.5
  • 3.0
  • 2.5
  • 2.0
  • 1.5
  • 1.0
  • 0.5

0.0 0.5 1993 2000 2010 2020 2030 Year GDP change %

  • env. const
  • env. const + early investment

Environmental investments

  • >mitigation of

constraints

  • >Income

increase Environmental inv.

  • > Reduction of inputs

for economic activity

  • > Costs

Regional Economic Cooperation and its Growth Environmental Impacts

  • n Ecosystem

Environmental Impacts

  • n Social System

NOx emissions in China GDP growth Forest Area in Asia

Estimate Role of Environmental Investment Towards SD

Environment and GDP recovery

Bangkok Air pollution Malaysia Deforestation National/Local Environmental problems

slide-19
SLIDE 19

19

Concept of APEIS Strategic Database

MODEL MODEL AIM/Energy, AIM/Material AIM/Energy, AIM/Material AIM/Trend, AIM/CGE AIM/Trend, AIM/CGE AIM/Ecosystem AIM/Ecosystem

Institution and Management Institution and Management Database Database

individual technology individual technology Law, Policy, Target, Tax, Financial Market ...

Expert Meeting

individual technology individual technology Operation, Management, Governance ...

Technology Technology Database Database

individual technology individual technology Energy, Pollution, IT ...

Adaptation Adaptation Database Database

individual technology individual technology Ecosystem Water, Agriculture, Health ...

Policy Maker’s Conference Case Study Policy Design & Assessment RISPO

individual technology individual technology Population, GDP, Emission, Policy Option, Constraint ...

Scenario Database

Discussion on Availability and Barrier of Environmental Innovation Strategy

Future economic trend Future environmental trend

India Thailand Korea Japan China

Monitoring data by IEM Scenario Assessment

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(Strategic Database gives the best timing and applicability of technologies toward environmentally sound society and estimates their impacts)

Path to low environmental stress industries and lifestyle by making best use of innovative technologies

Innovative Technologies Environmentally Sound Society (Low Environmental Loads & High Quality Life) Innovative Social System Breakthrough of Social Barrier

Objective of APEIS Strategic Database

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Items of Innovation Strategy

IT Bio- Technology Nano- Technology Wastes Management Purification of Soil/Water Environmental Information Environmental Fund Climate Change Environmental Policy Innovative Technologies Application Innovative Social System Sales Campaign SO2 Trading Public Bus Natural Gas Energy Tax

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10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 CO2 Emission (MtC)

Fuel cell vehicle fueled by by-product H2 of industrial process Gasoline hybrid vehicle Fuel cell vehicle fueled by H2 from natural gas Bikeway

Eco-drive License

Virtual communication system

Bio-ethanol

Fuel cell vehicle fueled by H2 from oil Advanced car sharing system

A1 A2 B2 B1 CO2 emission is estimated by SDB CO2 emission is estimated by SDB SDB cards are used SDB cards are used according to socio according to socio-

  • economic scenarios

economic scenarios

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Virtual Communication System (CS) ・Price ：800,000 Yen (Max) ・work at home：3 days per week ・Saving ：Transportation time Gasoline ・Share ：2% in 2005 to 50% in 2030 Car Sharing System (SS) ・Price ：130,000Yen/Year (Max) ・Persons to share a car：3 persons ・Share ：2% in 2005 to 50% in 2030 * Carbon tax: 10,000 Yen/t-C High efficient vehicles will be introduced by carbon tax.

Combination of virtual communication system and car sharing can reduce CO2 emissions greatly in future.

Innovation strategy in CO2 reduction case

CO2emissions from gasoline vehicles (Mt-CO2)

20 40 60 80 100 120 2000 2010 2020 2030 Market Case Carbon Tax Case High efficient remote communication system + Carbon Tax Remote system + Car sharing + Carbon tax High efficient gasoline + Hybrid+ CS + SS Conventional Communication System + High efficient gasoline High efficient gasoline

Japanese Transportation Sector

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  • Zero-emission technologies
  • Information technologies
  • Bio-technologies
  • Nano-technologies, etc.

Japanese companies have started to invest in about 400 technologies in the environmental field

Environment improvement is a major factor influencing this investment

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Indian Transport Sector : Roadmap

Bharat Stage II - 1.4.2003 EURO III Equivalent - 1.4.2005 EURO IV Equivalent - 1.4.2010 111 major cities (Delhi / NCR, Mumbai, Kolkata, Chennai, Bangalore, Hyderabad, Ahmedabad, Pune, Surat, Kanpur & Agra) Bharat Stage II - 1.4.2005 Bharat Stage III+

  • Preferably from

1.4.2008 But not later Than 1.4.2010 Bharat Stage II * - 1.4.2005 EURO III Equivalent - 1.4.2010 Entire Country 2 & 3 wheelers Passenger Cars, light commercial vehicles & heavy duty diesel vehicles Coverage

* EURO II equivalent Indian vehicular emissions norms + To be reviewed in 2006 for enhanced implementation

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Narrative Description Card

Sales Campaign for Electric Vehicle Reva: India’s First Electric Car Reva is the India’s first zero-polluting electric vehicle heralds a new era of non-polluting, cost effective, quiet city transportation - A boon for city commuters. This elegant, light-yet rugged, two-door sedan comfortably seats 4 people. It has a range of 80 kilometers in stop- and-go city driving, and a top speed of 65 km/h. Reva runs 80 Km

  • n a single charge of 9 units of electricity. The cost of the vehicle is

approximately $ 7000. Eco-Friendly Being an Electric Vehicle, Reva is zero polluting and noiseless. It does not require frequent oil changes. Moreover Reva has high recyclable content High on Technology Two computers and the state-of-the-art electronics in the Reva provide an efficient energy management system with advanced computerized vehicle diagnostics. The regenerative braking in the Reva recovers useful electricity by putting it back into the

  • batteries. Regenerative braking lets the motor act as a generator, converting the

vehicle's momentum into electricity….

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27 ► Low growth scenario with increased decentralization of governance and insulation of economy ► Slow improvement in energy efficiency and penetration of new technologies ► Key Drivers: GDP growth, population, Local emissions, Productivity, Importance of Agriculture, Resource intensity, Self- reliance

IB2 IB2

► Economic development along the same lines as existing government policies ► Increase in share of commercial Energy ► Lower trade flows and relatively slower technological change ► Key Drivers: GDP growth, Energy efficiency, Non-fossil fuels vs. fossil fuels, Oil consumption, Technological change, Movement on the fuel ladder ► High globalization and growth ► High transportation service demand → Growth in allied sectors ► Efficiency Improvements ► Key Drivers: competition and private participation, Access to global finance and technology, Technology R&D, transfer and capacity building, Reduced risk perception

IA1 IA1

► Sustainable development scenario with high environmental and social consciousness ► Efficiency improvement, low and carbon free technologies, and cleaner fuels ► Key Drivers: Strong environmental awareness and conservationist values, Environmental integrity, consumption changes, Shift away from fossil fuels, Local capacity building

IA2 IA2 IB1 IB1

Soci Soci-

  • Economic Scenarios in passenger transportation sectors

Economic Scenarios in passenger transportation sectors

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Other Innovation in India: Joint Forest and Water Management

  • Community participation

and local sustainable development

  • Efficient conservation of

forests and water resources

  • Local livelihood

enhancement

  • Participatory Wasteland

development

Managed and unmanaged areas in Rajasthan Revival of Arabari Forest in West Bengal

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Messages from I EA Messages from I EA

1.

  • 1. Technological innovation potentials for the

Technological innovation potentials for the environment are very large, much different environment are very large, much different among countries, therefore great among countries, therefore great

  • pportunities of regional collaboration.
  • pportunities of regional collaboration.

2.

  • 2. Technological innovation is effective if

Technological innovation is effective if integrated with social innovations. integrated with social innovations.

3.

  • 3. Policy options effective for global

Policy options effective for global environment can reduce local environment can reduce local environmental burden as well and enhance environmental burden as well and enhance technology development. technology development.

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Messages from I EA (cont.) Messages from I EA (cont.)

4.

  • 4. Environmental investment in earlier stage is

Environmental investment in earlier stage is more cost effective in a long run. more cost effective in a long run.

5.

  • 5. Globalization would introduce innovations

Globalization would introduce innovations mainly in emission reduction, while it could mainly in emission reduction, while it could affect the incentives to sustain ecosystems affect the incentives to sustain ecosystems

6.

  • 6. Free Trade Agreement would have varied

Free Trade Agreement would have varied economic and environmental impacts on economic and environmental impacts on different Asian countries different Asian countries

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Expected Outcomes from IEA for Phase I

1) Integrated Environmental Assessment with AIM Family Models 2) Concept Design and System Development of Strategic Database to Evaluate Environment Innovation Strategy Options 3) Apply Strategic Database to Selected Countries in Asia 4) Expand and Diffuse Environment Innovation Strategies through Interaction with Policy-makers in Selected countries Scenario Analysis for Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Environmental Policy Proposal for Eco-Asia Environmental Strategy Assessment in the Great Mekong Subregion Capacity Building in Asian Countries

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Plan for the Second Phase of APEIS-IEA

1) Extended Application and Policy Assessment with AIM Family Models 2) Application of Strategic Database to Specific Environmental Problems in Asian Countries 3) Modeling case studies of environmental strategies and choice of policy instruments 4) Estimate Appropriate Timing to Introduce Environment Innovation for each target Asia-Pacific country 5) Expand and Diffuse Environment Innovation Strategies through interaction with policy-makers Sustainable Development Strategy in Asia- Pacific Region

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Thank you ! Thank you !

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Application of APEIS studies on specific environmental problems

  • 1.

% . % 1. % 2. % 3. % 4. % 5. % 6. % J PN KO R C H N AS EAN7 I DI ANZ NAM EU R FS U RO W W or l d G D P di f f erence ( % )

Regional economic cooperation e.g. East Asia Community, Asia FTA

  • 3.5
  • 3.0
  • 2.5
  • 2.0
  • 1.5
  • 1.0
  • 0.5

0.0 0.5 1993 2000 2010 2020 2030 Year GDP change %

  • env. const
  • env. const + early investment

Environmental investments

  • >mitigation of

constraints

  • >Income

increase Environmental inv.

  • > Reduction of inputs

for economic activity

  • > Costs

Environmentally Sound Society (Low Environmental Loads & High Quality Life) Innovative Social System APEIS/Strategic Database AIM models application IEM monitoring data Innovative Technologies RISPO policy

  • ptions

National/Local Environmental problems National/Local policy-makers interaction Bangkok Air pollution Malaysia Deforestation