Structure of Model for the APEIS Project Yuzuru Matsuoka Kyoto - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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APEIS Capacity Building Workshop October 24, 2002 1

Structure of Model for the APEIS Project

1. Brief introduction of the AIM 2. Models used for APEIS Project 3. AIM/Emission, Ecosystem, Material and AIM/Trend

Yuzuru Matsuoka Kyoto University, Japan

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APEIS Capacity Building Workshop October 24, 2002 2

The Asia-Pacific Integrated Model

• AIM is an abbreviation of Asia-Pacific Integrated

Model.

• It is one of Integrated Assessment Models (IAM),

and a large-scale computer simulation model developed to promote the integrated assessment process in the Asia-Pacific region

• Collaborated study by Japan, China, India , Korea,

Thailand and Malaysia members.

• The AIM project is started in July 1990, and began

an international collaboration system from 1994.

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APEIS Capacity Building Workshop October 24, 2002 3

Integrated Assessment Model of Climate Change:

The AIM Approach

Ecosystem

Water resource Sea level rise Agriculture Human health

GHG emissions Climate change

APEIS IPCC

UNEP/GEO3

Eco-Asia EMF19

National government private companies

apply

model develop- ment Population model Lifestyle Land use model Energy model Technology Economic model

Atmospheric chemistry

Climatic change Ocean uptake Carbon cycle

Mitigation

• f

Climate Change Adaptation

• f

Climate Change Japan team India team China team Korea team Thailand team Malaysia team AIM/Emission, AIM/Material AIM/Climate AIM/Ecosystem

AIM/Trend

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APEIS Capacity Building Workshop October 24, 2002 4

Linkages of AIM models

AIM/Emission AIM/Climate AIM/Ecosystem

Atmos- phere Land Surface

Ocean

Adaptation Water Resource Land-use Crop Productivity Food Demand And Supply Socio-Econ. Factors Socio-Econ. & Emission Scenario

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APEIS Capacity Building Workshop October 24, 2002 5

AIM/Emission Bottom-up and Top-down

• The AIM/Emission has two types of models, i.e. Bottom-up

type energy models and Top-down type energy models.

• Bottom-up type energy models : Energy demand is

calculated by multiplying energy service and energy

• efficiency. Energy efficiency is calculated with the diffusion
• f new technologies, and energy prices. Within the model，

recruit processes of energy technologies, choice and

• peration of energy devices are described in detail.

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APEIS Capacity Building Workshop October 24, 2002 6

Top-down and Bottom-up Energy models in AIM Family

経済又は経済のエネルギーサブシステム ・GDP=f(労働力、資本、エネルギー、その他 ) →静的視点 ・人口、・価格、・投資 ・成長効果 →動的視点 AEEI AEEI ・構造的変化 ・技術的変化 価格効果 ・代替効果 ・その他 収入効果 投資効果 エネルギーサービスに 対する需要 エネルギーサービスに 対する需要 エネルギー供給 最終消費 エネルギー CO CO

2排出

CO CO

2排出

経済活動 部門 A 経済活動 部門 B 経済活動 部門 C ｴﾈﾙｷﾞｰ供給 技術a ・投資費用 ・運転費用 ・効率 ・寿命等 ｴﾈﾙｷﾞ ｰ消費 技術 b ｴﾈﾙｷﾞｰ消費 技術c ・ ・ ・ ボトムアップの視野 トップダウンの視野 ｴﾈﾙｷﾞｰ強度、燃料構成 経済活動 Energy system as a part of economic system ・GDP = f( labor、capital、energy、others ) ・ Population・price・investment ・Economic growth → Dynamic point of views AEEI ・Structual change ・Technological change Price effect ・Substitution ・Others Income effect Investment エネルギーサービスに 対する需要 Energy service demand Energy supply

End-use energy service

CO CO

2排出

CO2 emission Economic Activity A Economic Activity B Economic Activity C

Energy end-use technology a

• Investment
• Operating cost
• Efficiency
• Lifetime

Energy end-use technology b

• Investment
• Operating cost
• Efficiency
• Lifetime

Energy end-use technology b

Bottom-up view Top-down view

Energy intensity, Energy mix Economic Activity

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APEIS Capacity Building Workshop October 24, 2002 7

AIM/Emission

• Coupling of models -

Regional Air Pollution Model

Population

Resource Base

Lifestyle Socio-Economic Scenarios Goods and Service Price

Goods & Service Demand

Energy Price Industrial Process Change

Regional / National Bottom-up Model

Technology Change End Use Energy Efficiency Social Energy Efficiency

Food Consumption Pattern

Industrial Production Final Energy Demand Final Energy Supply Energy Conversion Technology Efficiency Primary Energy Supply Energy Conversion Technology Biomass Energy Demand

Global Energy-Economic Model

Goods & Service Supply

Biomass Farm

Global Land Equilibrium Model AIM/emission

GHGs Emissions AIM/climate Model GDP GDP Population

Resource Base

GDP Population

Energy Service Deman d

Social Energy Efficiency Change End Use Technology Change End Use Technology Energy Resource Exploitation Technology Other Inputs Land Input Cropland Pasture Forest

Other Land

SO2, NOx, SPM Emissio n

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APEIS Capacity Building Workshop October 24, 2002 8

CO2 Emission Scenarios

A1FI (A1C) A2 A1FI (A1G) A1B B2 A1T B1

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APEIS Capacity Building Workshop October 24, 2002 9

Linkages of AIM models

AIM/Emission AIM/Climate AIM/Ecosystem

Atmos- phere Land Surface

Ocean

Adaptation Water Resource Land-use Crop Productivity Food Demand And Supply Socio-Econ. Factors Socio-Econ. & Emission Scenario

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APEIS Capacity Building Workshop October 24, 2002 10

AIM/Climate

convection and transport of aerosol, SO2 and NOx Climate model Radiative forcing, Energy balance Upwelling-Diffusion ocean model AIM/emission Global temperature change

Glaciers Greenland Antarctica

Carbon cycle model CH4 model N2O model CFCs model

Sea level rise Ice melt Thermal expansion Balance and Chemical model

• f GHGs

Natural change Sea level rise model

Spatial interpolation with GCM

GCM,RegCM experiments Regional temperature change Ocean model

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APEIS Capacity Building Workshop October 24, 2002 11

Temperature change between 1990 and 2100

1～1.5 1.5～2 2～2.5 2.5～3 3～3.5 3.5～4 4～4.5 4.5～5 5～5.5 5.5～6 B1 2.0±0.5 A1T 2.5±0.6 B2 2.7±0.6 A1B 2.9±0.6 A2 3.8±0.8 A1FI 4.5±0.9 All 3.1±1.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.5 1 Fitted probability and frequency of occurence 1 2 3 4 5 6 Temperature change (C)

Geometric mean= 2.88 C S.D. of logarithm= 0.346

←5% 1.63C ←50% 2.88C ←95% 5.1C

Simulated 7 GCMs are GFDL R15a, CSIRO Mk2, HadCM3, HadCM2, ECHAM4/OPYC, CSM 1.0 and DOE PCM

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APEIS Capacity Building Workshop October 24, 2002 12

Climate change in Asian-Pacific countries from 1990 to 2100, increase in DJF

< -30

• 20～-15
• 5～0

10～15 25～30 Japan 4.6±9.9% China 7.2±9.4% India 3.7±19.5% 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25

<1.0 1.0-1.5 1.5-2.0 2.0-2.5 2.5-3.0 3.0-3.5 3.5-4.0 4.0-4.5 4.5-5.0 5.0-5.5 5.5-6.0 6.0-6.5 6.5-7.0 > 7.0

Global 3.1±1.1℃ Japan 3.7±1.3℃ China 3.9±1.4℃ India 3.1±1.1℃ 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25

Precipitation change Temperature change

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APEIS Capacity Building Workshop October 24, 2002 13

Linkages of AIM models

AIM/Emission AIM/Climate AIM/Ecosystem

Atmos- phere Land Surface

Ocean

Adaptation Water Resource Land-use Crop Productivity Food Demand And Supply Socio-Econ. Factors Socio-Econ. & Emission Scenario

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APEIS Capacity Building Workshop October 24, 2002 14 Temperature, Precipitation, PET, PAR, Soil characteristics Biomass Production Rate

Estimation of Growing Period Net Biomass Production Potential Productivity Threshold Temp. Normal Harvest Index

Normal Growing Period

Photosynthesis Path

Normal Leaf Area Index

Crop Parameters

Soil constraints Soil data

Crop productivity model AIM/climate, Surface water runoff model

Outline of the Crop Productivity Model

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APEIS Capacity Building Workshop October 24, 2002 15

Wheat productivity change in some countries from 1990 to 2100

• 100

～-70

• 70

～-60

• 60

～-50

• 50

～-40

• 40

～-30

• 30

～-20

• 20

～-10

• 10

～0 0～10 10～20 20～30 30～40 40～50 50～

J a p a n 2 4 . 3 ± 4 . 4 % C h i n a 3 3 . 2 ± 1 2 . 5 % I n d i a

• 3

4 . 3 ± 1 6 . 1 % C a n a d a 9 . 6 ± 1 9 . 8 % 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

• 1

～ ～

• 7
• 7

～ ～

• 6
• 6

～ ～

• 5
• 5

～ ～

• 4
• 4

～ ～

• 3
• 3

～ ～

• 2
• 2

～ ～

• 1
• 1

～ ～ ～ ～ 1 1 ～ ～ 2 2 ～ ～ 3 3 ～ ～ 4 4 ～ ～ 5 5 ～ ～

Japan -6.5±1.5% China -5.9±10.6% India -53.2±19.9% Canada 29.7±6.9% 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

Without CO2 fertilization With CO2 fertilization

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APEIS Capacity Building Workshop October 24, 2002 16

• 70～-65
• 65～-60
• 60～-55
• 55～-50
• 50～-45
• 45～-40
• 40～-35
• 35～-30
• 30～-25
• 25～-20
• 20～-15
• 15～-10
• 10～-5
• 5～0

0～5 5～10

SRES -34±16% 450ppm -14±5.8% 550ppm -20±6.8% 650ppm -26±7.0% 750ppm -29±7.8%

0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40

Wheat productivity change in India from 1990 to 2100, with CO2 fertilization

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APEIS Capacity Building Workshop October 24, 2002 17

AIM/Trend

Korea Thailand Thailand Thailand China India Japan

Narrative Scenarios

Input

Renewable Energy Population Growth Economic Growth Energy Efficiency Improvement

Narrative Scenarios

Input

Renewable Energy Population Growth Economic Growth Energy Efficiency Improvement past economic trend past environmental trend

AIM- TREND

past economic trend past economic trend past environmental trend past environmental trend

AIM- TREND

Discussion

Future Estimates

Future economic trend Future environmental trend

Future Estimates

Future economic trend Future economic trend Future environmental trend Future environmental trend

Output

Asian Quantitative Scenarios

Future economic trend Future environmental trend

Asian Quantitative Scenarios

Future economic trend Future economic trend Future environmental trend Future environmental trend

F e e d b a c k

Scenario Generation & AIM Scenario Generation & AIM-

• TREND

TREND

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APEIS Capacity Building Workshop October 24, 2002 18

1995 200 5 2015 202 5 2032 Cambodia Lao Bhutan Solomon Islands Vanuatu Kiribati Myanmar PapuaNewGuinea SriLanka Nepal Bangladesh Pakistan Samoa Fiji Tonga Maldives Indonesia Philippines India VietNam Polynesia Korea,Dem China Malaysia Mongolia NewZealand Palau Thailand Japan Taiwan Australia Nauru Korea,Rep Brunei Singapore

2 4 6 8 1 0 1 2 14 16 18 20

CO2 emission per capita (Mt-C/cap) Country Year

Projection of CO2 emission per capita for each country

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APEIS Capacity Building Workshop October 24, 2002 19

CO2 emission intensity for each scenario

0 5 10 100 1000

gC/m2/year

0 5 10 100 1000 0 5 10 100 1000

gC/m2/year

1995 2032 2032 Conventional Policy

Agricultural water withdraw intensity at Thailand in 1990

0 5 50 500 5000

2000 m3/ha/year

Agricultural water withdraw intensity at Thailand in 2030 Agricultural water withdraw intensity at Thailand in 1990

0 5 50 500 5000

2000 m3/ha/year

Agricultural water withdraw intensity at Thailand in 2030

Change of agricultural water withdraw intensity at Thailand

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APEIS Capacity Building Workshop October 24, 2002 20

AIM/Material

production sector household capital labor government abroad market import export produced commodity energy intermediate CO2 energy final demand CO2 pollution pollution management energy intermediate CO2

• env. capital

labor environmental Industry/investment recycle

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APEIS Capacity Building Workshop October 24, 2002 21

AIM models for this Workshop

Future economic trend Future environmental trend

India Thailand Korea Japan China

AIM/trend

Communication platform to assess future trend

• f each countries

in the Asia Pacific Region supported with multi -regional environment -economic CGE model

Emission Intensity of SO

2 in China

AIM/emission

Detailed technology selection model supported by CGE model to estimate Emissions of CO 2, SO 2, NO 2, SPM and other pollutants

Land use Temperature Precipitation Sunshine Water resource Crop Productivity Socio-economic indicator Impact on food demand Adaptation strategy

AIM/ecosystem

Detailed process model for ecosystem assessment focused

• n surface water

recycling, crop productivity and vegetation

Industry Green Purchase Environ - mental Burden Environment Fund Environmental Industry (waste management, recycle) Wastes Environmental Burden Recycle Technology needs Technology assessment Environmental Industry Environmental burden Consumer Research on new technologies

AIM/material

CGE -supported model integrated with material balance to assess recycle process and environmental industry

AIM/CGE

World Economic Model

Future economic trend Future environmental trend

India Thailand Korea Japan China

AIM/trend

Communication platform to assess future trend

• f each countries

in the Asia Pacific Region supported with multi -regional environment -economic CGE model

Future economic trend Future environmental trend

India Thailand Korea Japan China

Future economic trend Future economic trend Future environmental trend Future environmental trend

India Thailand Korea Japan China

AIM/Trend

Communication platform to assess future trend

• f each countries

in the Asia Pacific Region supported with multi -regional environment -economic CGE model

Emission Intensity of SO

2 in China

AIM/emission

Detailed technology selection model supported by CGE model to estimate Emissions of CO 2, SO 2, NO 2, SPM and other pollutants

Emission Intensity of SO

2 in China

Emission Intensity of SO

2 in China

AIM/Emission

Detailed technology selection model supported by CGE model to estimate Emissions of CO 2, SO 2, NO 2, SPM and other pollutants

Land use Temperature Precipitation Sunshine Water resource Crop Productivity Socio-economic indicator Impact on food demand Adaptation strategy

AIM/ecosystem

Detailed process model for ecosystem assessment focused

• n surface water

recycling, crop productivity and vegetation

Land use Temperature Precipitation Sunshine Water resource Crop Productivity Socio-economic indicator Impact on food demand Adaptation strategy Land use Temperature Precipitation Sunshine Water resource Crop Productivity Socio-economic indicator Impact on food demand Adaptation strategy

AIM/Ecosystem

Detailed process model for ecosystem assessment focused

• n surface water

recycling, crop productivity and vegetation

Industry Green Purchase Environ - mental Burden Environment Fund Environmental Industry (waste management, recycle) Wastes Environmental Burden Recycle Technology needs Technology assessment Environmental Industry Environmental burden Consumer Research on new technologies

AIM/material

CGE -supported model integrated with material balance to assess recycle process and environmental industry

Industry Green Purchase Environ - mental Burden Environment Fund Environmental Industry (waste management, recycle) Wastes Environmental Burden Recycle Technology needs Technology assessment Environmental Industry Environmental burden Consumer Research on new technologies Industry Green Purchase Environ - mental Burden Environment Fund Environmental Industry (waste management, recycle) Wastes Environmental Burden Recycle Technology needs Technology assessment Environmental Industry Environmental burden Consumer Research on new technologies

AIM/Material

CGE -supported model integrated with material balance to assess recycle process and environmental industry

AIM/CGE

World Economic Model

AIM/CGE-Linkage

World Economic Model

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APEIS Capacity Building Workshop October 24, 2002 22

Review of Models used in this Workshop

• AIM/Emission ：AIM/Enduse is a bottom-up energy model, which

focuses on the activities of the people who deal with energy consumption and production, plus the changes in technologies. Based on detailed descriptions of these items, it calculates the changes in energy consumption from technological substitution caused by changes in energy prices, using its bottom-up structure.

• AIM/Ecosystem : calculates global and regional climatic impacts,

especially on primary production industries, such as water supply, agriculture, forest products and human health.

• AIM/Material ： intends to estimate economic and environmental

effects of environmental investment. It assesses the effects of policy integration for comprehensive environmental problems. It has a consistency of material flow and a consistency of activities and reality

• f technology and policies.
• AIM/Trend : is developed to prospect the basic situation of economy,

energy and environment in Asia-Pacific region. It covers 42 countries in Asia-Pacific region. It uses simple method (econometric) and develops several scenarios for capacity building.

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APEIS Capacity Building Workshop October 24, 2002 23

Model Situation Object Characteristics Implementation AIM/Enduse Operating National CO2 reduction program Bottom up, end-use energy-emission model, Constant lifetime cohort, Optimum subsidy

• ption

Fortran program named "engd" AIM/Local Bottom up, end-use energy-emission model, simple cohort structure, coupling with air pollutant emission inventories ALICE:Ancillary-effects estimating model for local governments to improve their comprehensive environment Device combined version (AIM/Enduse Vr.2): Able to treat combined input and output services, e.g. Power generation and secondary use of electricity Subsidy version (SUB) : optimum subsidy to reduce gas emission AIM/Energy- economics Obsolete but Operating (First Generation) Long-term GHG emission projections from the point

• f energy supply and

demand equilibrium Based on the ASF/ER model, Backcasting ability from emission and concentration targets, Coupling with the enduse model in near-term projection Fortran program AIM/CGE (energy) Operating Economic assessment of global GHG reduction, EMF14/19 comparative study Global multi-regional CGE model with energy resource sectors and interface to bottom-up model GAMS/MPSGE, GTAP4, IEA energy balance table AIM/CGE (Asia) Developing Environmental and Economic assessment of Global Environmental Policy, focuses on Asia- Pacific region AIM-COUNTRY APEIS Global multi-regional CGE model with economic goods/bads, natural resource sectors and interface to bottom-up model GAMS/MPSGE, GTAP5, IEA energy balance table, Commodity statistics, Detailed database of natural resources AIM/Database Linkage of CO2, SO2, NO2, SPM reduction program, National/Regional scale, Coupling reduction program with Emission Inventory AIM-COUNTRY APEIS MS access interface and GAMS main program, Supported with AIM/Database Operating

AIM/Emission family

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APEIS Capacity Building Workshop October 24, 2002 24

Model Situation Object Characteristics Implementation AI AIM/Ecosystem Climate change impact assessment with detailed process model, surface water cycle, crop productivity, vegetation, health Grid or basin level hydrological model, crop model, vegetation model, malaria model. Interface with GCM/RegCM output Operating and Developing (First Generation) Global assessment Linkage with World crop trade model GRASS, ArcGIS FORTRAN, C Developing Country impact assessment AIM/Country Packaged and Disseminate version of global version IDRISI, FORTRAN,C, VB, AIM/Database AI AIM/Ecosystem2 Developing Assessment of global environmental changes and their counter-measures Assembly of rather independent modules LAND, WATER, AGRI, ENV, HEALTH, VEG, Exploratory models for next generation AIM activities GRASS, ArcGIS FORTRAN, C, GAMS Global/Regional version Country/Local version

AIM/Ecosystem family

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APEIS Capacity Building Workshop October 24, 2002 25

Model Situation Object Characteristics Implementation Prospect AI AIM/Material Operating , Applying to Japan, India and China Economic assessment of nation environmental policy, focused on CO2 reduction and waste recycling APEIS One country CGE model with material balance and interface to environmental technology model GAMS/MPSGE MS ACCESS MS EXCEL Coupling with bottomup engineering models, Coupling with Household production approach AI AIM/Trend Operating, Distributing Communicating platform for constructing Asia- Pacific regional environmental outlook, ECO-ASIA, APEIS, GEO3,AIM/Country Country econometric

• model. Assembly
• f Energy, Water,

Agriculture and

• ther modules

Visual Basic for MS Excel, National and International statistics AIM/Database Developing/ evolving to an econometrice tool (ATPL/ATML) included in the AIM/Database and AIM/CGE/ASIA

AIM/Material and AIM/Trend