AIM/Emission Model AIM/Emission Model Mikiko Kainuma Mikiko - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

▶

aim emission model aim emission model

AIM/Emission Model AIM/Emission Model Mikiko Kainuma Mikiko - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Oct 23, 2023 12 likes •197 views

APEIS Capacity Building Workshop on Integrated Environment Assessment in the Asia Pacific Region October 24-26, 2002 Hotel Grand Inter-Continental, New Delhi AIM/Emission Model AIM/Emission Model Mikiko Kainuma Mikiko Kainuma National

slide-1

SLIDE 1

1

AIM/Emission Model AIM/Emission Model

National Institute for Environmental Studies National Institute for Environmental Studies

Mikiko Kainuma Mikiko Kainuma

APEIS Capacity Building Workshop on Integrated Environment Assessment in the Asia Pacific Region October 24-26, 2002 Hotel Grand Inter-Continental, New Delhi

slide-2

SLIDE 2

2

Computable General Equilibrium Model

(AIM/Top-down)

World level Bottom-up technology & land use Model

(AIM/Bottom-up)

Bottom-up technology & land use Model

(AIM/Bottom-up)

Bottom-up technology & land use Model

(AIM/Bottom-up)

・・・ Country level

Development of AIM/Top Development of AIM/Top-

down

down &AIM/Bottom &AIM/Bottom-

up

up

slide-3

SLIDE 3

3

Outline of AIM/Global CGE

Fuels Electricity N g Governments Ho

carbon emission right r e n t primary factors input input consumption input input inpu

prod

CO2 CO2 CO2 Fuels Electricity N g Governments Ho

carbon emission right r e n t primary factors input input consumption input input inpu

prod

CO2 CO2 CO2 Fuels Electricity Non-energ goods Governments Household

carbon emission right r e n t primary factors input input consumption consumption input input input

production sector

C CO2 CO2 CO2 Fuels Electricity Non-energ goods Governments Household

carbon emission right r e n t primary factors input input consumption consumption input input input

production sector

C CO2 CO2 CO2 Fuels Electricity Non-energy goods Governments Household

carbon emission right r e n t primary factors investment input input consumption consumption input input input

production sectors

CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2 Fuels Electricity Non-energy goods Governments Household

carbon emission right r e n t primary factors investment input input consumption consumption input input input

production sectors

CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2 Fuels Electricity Non-energy goods Governments Household

carbon emission right r e n t primary factors investment input input consumption consumption input input input

production sectors

CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2 Fuels Electricity Non-energy goods Governments Household

carbon emission right r e n t primary factors investment input input consumption consumption input input input

production sectors

CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2 Fuels Electricity Non-energy goods Governments Household

carbon emission right r e n t primary factors investment input input consumption consumption input input input

production sectors

CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2 Fuels Electricity Non-energy goods Governments Household

carbon emission right r e n t primary factors investment input input consumption consumption input input input

production sectors

CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2

Regional Aggregation

JPN Japan AUS Australia NZL New Zealand USA United States of America CAN Canada EUR Western Europe TWN Chinese Taiwan KOR Republic of Korea HKG Hong Kong SGP Singapore FSU Former Soviet Union CHN China IDI India IDN Indonesia MYS Malaysia PHL Philippines THA Thailand LAM Latin America MEA Middle East and North Africa SSA Sub Saharan Africa ROW Rest of the World

Regional Aggregation

JPN Japan AUS Australia NZL New Zealand USA United States of America CAN Canada EUR Western Europe TWN Chinese Taiwan KOR Republic of Korea HKG Hong Kong SGP Singapore FSU Former Soviet Union CHN China IDI India IDN Indonesia MYS Malaysia PHL Philippines THA Thailand LAM Latin America MEA Middle East and North Africa SSA Sub Saharan Africa ROW Rest of the World

International trade

slide-4

SLIDE 4

4

Economic Impacts of Kyoto Protocol with and without USA (Without Emission Trading and with sink)

Japan USA EU Russia

0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10

0.00 0.10 GDP Change (% from baseline)

With USA (Left) Without USA (Right)

slide-5

SLIDE 5

5

Economic Impact of the Kyoto Protocol without US

Mitigation -
0.60
0.40
0.20

0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00

Japan US EU CIS

Change of GDP (% from baseline) Without emissions trading Emissions trading (Annex B ) Emissions trading (Annex B, 50% Banking)

slide-6

SLIDE 6

6

56.3 70.4 16.6 31.6 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 Within Annex B Within Annex B (50% Banking) US$/C

With US (Left) Without US (Right)

Carbon price (Emissions Trading) (in 2010)

slide-7

SLIDE 7

7

(a) reference (b) WRE 550 ppm World energy demand in end use sectors under (a) the reference scenario and (b) WRE 550 scenario.

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 2 6 2 7 2 8 2 9 2 1 T o ta l p rim a ry e n e rgy c o n su m p tio n (E J ) Biomass Solar Nuclear Hydro Coal Gas OIl 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 T o ta l p rim a ry e n e rgy c o n su m p tio n (E J ) Biomass Solar Nuclear Hydro Coal Gas OIl

slide-8

SLIDE 8

8

100 200 300 400 500 600 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Carbon Tax (2000US$) WRE 550 ppmv WGI 550 ppmv MID 550 ppmv TAX+10$/tC TAX+25$/tC TAX+100$/tC

Projection of GDP marginal costs to reduce emissions

slide-9

SLIDE 9

9

0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2120 GtC

A2-750 ASF A2-750 MESSAGE A1-750 PETRO A2-750 PETRO A1-650 AIM B2-650 MARIA A1-650 MESSAGE A1-650 PETRO A2-650 PETRO A1-550 AIM A2-550 AIM B1-550 AIM B2-550 AIM A2-550 ASF A1-550 IMAGE A1-550 LDNE A2-550 LDNE B1-550 LDNE B2-550 LDNE A1-550 MARIA B1-550 MARIA B2-550 MARIA A1-550 MESSAGE A2-550 MESSAGE B2-550 MESSAGE A1-550 MiniCAM A2-550 MiniCAM B1-550 MiniCAM B2H-550 MiniCAM B2L-550 MiniCAM A1-550 PETRO A2-550 PETRO A1-550-EA WorldScan A1-550-DR WorldScan A2-550-EA WorldScan A2-550-DR WorldScan B2-550-EA WorldScan B2-550-DR WorldScan A1-450 AIM B1-450 IMAGE B2-450 MARIA A1-450 MESSAGE A1-450 PETRO A2-450 PETRO A1-450-EA WorldScan A2-450-EA WorldScan B1-450-DR WorldScan B1-450-EA WorldScan B2-450-EA WorldScan B2-450-DR WorldScan SRES-Minimum SRES-Maximum WRE550 WGI550 Database Max Database Min.

minimum in literature maximum in literature

Post SRES Mitigation Scenarios

slide-10

SLIDE 10

10

Frame of the AIM/Enduse Model

Energy Energy Technology Energy Service

Oil
Coal
Gas
Solar
(Electricity)
Boiler
Power generation
Blast furnace
Air conditioner
Automobile
Heating
Lighting
Steel products
Cooling
Transportation

Energy Database Technology Database

Employees
Lifestyle
Energy type
Energy price
Energy constraints
CO2 emission factor
Technology price
Energy consumption
Service supplied
Share
Lifetime

Socio-economic Scenario

Technology

Energy Consumption CO2 Emissions

Service Demand

Industrial Structure
Economic Growth
Population Growth

slide-11

SLIDE 11

11

AIM/Enduse Database

Output tables

Sum of Value Energy_Device Remov al CK1 CK2 COLBLR Year NO N NO N NO N SFG D _bas e 4,700,000 1,300,000 24,528,000 1,752,000 1995 4,700,000 1,300,000 24,528,000 1,752,000 1996 6,000,000 26,134,533 1,664,400 1997 6,180,000 27,624,834 1,584,466 1998 6,365,400 29,010,707 1,510,876 1999 6,556,362 30,301,836 1,442,662 2000 6,753,053 31,506,418 1,379,091 2001 6,955,645 32,631,543 1,319,587 2002 7,164,314 33,683,447 1,263,694 2003 7,379,244 34,667,680 1,211,035 2004 7,600,621 35,589,232 1,161,300 2005 7,828,640 36,452,618 1,114,226 0.00 12.50 25.00 37.50 50.00 62.50 75.00 87.50 100.00 112.50 125.00 137.50 150.00 162.50 175.00 187.50 >=200.00 0.00 12.50 25.00 37.50 50.00 62.50 75.00 87.50 100.00 112.50 125.00 137.50 150.00 162.50 175.00 187.50 >=200.00 0.00 6.25 12.50 18.75 25.00 31.25 37.50 43.75 50.00 56.25 62.50 68.75 75.00 81.25 87.50 93.75 >=100.00

Link with GIS sytem

Structure of the AIM/Enduse Model

slide-12

SLIDE 12

12

200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1990 2000 2010 2020

CO2 Emission (MtCO2)

A1 B1 B2 A2

123 114 113 110 A1 A2 B1 B2 133 112 105 99

< Reference case >

A 1 A 2 B 1 B 2 A 1 A 2 B 1 B 2

(1990=100)

Estimates of CO2 Emission in Japan with AIM/Enduse model

slide-13

SLIDE 13

13

20 40 60 80 100 120 1990 2000 2010 2020 POP （1990=100) B1 B2 A1 A2 50 100 150 200 1990 2000 2010 2020 GDP/POP （1990=100) B1 B2 A1 A2

A 1 A 2 B 1 B 2 A 1

2% per year

A 2

Below 1% 1.5% per year

B 1

0.5% per year

B 2

Estimates of CO2 Emission in Japan with AIM/Enduse model

slide-14

SLIDE 14

14

20 40 60 80 100 120 1990 2000 2010 2020 ENE/GDP （1990=100) A2 B2 A1 B1 20 40 60 80 100 120 1990 2000 2010 2020 CO2/ENE （1990=100) A1 A2 B1 B2

A 1 A 2 B 1 B 2 A 1 Shift to Service Industry Oil and coal are main energy A 2 Retain material industries Atomic power plant B 1 Advanced technology Lifestyle change B 2

Estimates of CO2 Emission in Japan with AIM end-use model

slide-15

SLIDE 15

15

200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1990 2000 2010 2020

CO2 Emission (MtCO2)

A1 A2 B1 B2

102 96 98 96 A1 A2 B1 B2 105 88 87 83

< Countermeasure case >

A 1 A 2 B 1 B 2 A 1 A 2 B 1 B 2

(1990=100)

Estimates of CO2 Emission in Japan with AIM end-use model

slide-16

SLIDE 16

16

Regional distribution of CO2 emissions in India for 2000 and 2030 in reference scenario Note: Circles show emissions from large point sources.

2000

Mt-CO2 Mt-CO2

5 10 15 20 40 15 - 18 18 - 21 > 21 12 -15 9 - 12 6 - 9 3 - 6 < 3

Million Ton Million Ton

2030

slide-17

SLIDE 17

17

slide-18

SLIDE 18

18

0.00 100.00 200.00 300.00 400.00 500.00 600.00 700.00 800.00 900.00 1000.00 1100.00 1200.00 1300.00 1400.00 1500.00 >=1600.00

500 1,000 1,500 ≧1,600 (t-C/km2)

0.00 1000.00 2000.00 3000.00 4000.00 5000.00 6000.00 7000.00 8000.00 9000.00 10000.00 11000.00 12000.00 13000.00 14000.00 15000.00 >=16000.00

5,000 10,000 15,000 ≧16,000 （kg-SO2/km2）

CO2 emissions intensity in China for 2010 SO2 emissions intensity in China for 2010