AIM/Emission Model AIM/Emission Model Mikiko Kainuma Mikiko - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

APEIS Capacity Building Workshop on Integrated Environment Assessment in the Asia Pacific Region October 24-26, 2002 Hotel Grand Inter-Continental, New Delhi AIM/Emission Model AIM/Emission Model Mikiko Kainuma Mikiko Kainuma National Institute for Environmental Studies National Institute for Environmental Studies 1

Development of AIM/Top- -down down Development of AIM/Top &AIM/Bottom- -up up &AIM/Bottom Computable General Equilibrium Model World level (AIM/Top-down) Country level Bottom-up Bottom-up Bottom-up technology technology technology & land use Model ・・・ & land use Model & land use Model (AIM/Bottom-up) (AIM/Bottom-up) (AIM/Bottom-up) 2

Regional Aggregation Regional Aggregation input input JPN JPN Japan Japan International CO2 CO2 AUS AUS Australia Australia Fuels Fuels inpu inpu Electricity Electricity trade NZL NZL New Zealand New Zealand input input N N input input CO2 CO2 g g USA USA United States of America United States of America CO2 CO2 Fuels Fuels input input input input input input CAN CAN Canada Canada Electricity Electricity input input input input Non-energ Non-energ CO2 CO2 prod prod EUR EUR Western Europe Western Europe consumption consumption Fuels Fuels goods goods CO2 CO2 input input input input input input Electricity Electricity TWN TWN Chinese Taiwan Chinese Taiwan input input CO2 CO2 input input Non-energy Non-energy CO2 CO2 t t n n Fuels Fuels KOR KOR Republic of Korea Republic of Korea e e input input production sector production sector goods goods CO2 CO2 r r consumption consumption Electricity Electricity input input input input input input HKG HKG Hong Kong Hong Kong Non-energy Non-energy input input emission emission carbon carbon CO2 CO2 Governments Governments consumption consumption goods goods CO2 CO2 right right SGP SGP Singapore Singapore Fuels Fuels CO2 CO2 t t production sectors production sectors n n input input primary primary consumption consumption input input e e factors factors Electricity Electricity input input r r FSU FSU Former Soviet Union Former Soviet Union input input Non-energy Non-energy investment investment emission emission consumption consumption production sectors production sectors carbon carbon CO2 CO2 Governments Governments goods goods CHN CHN China China t t consumption consumption CO2 CO2 n n Ho Ho right right e e input input primary primary r r input input factors factors investment investment IDI IDI India India consumption consumption C C emission emission CO2 CO2 t t carbon carbon n n Governments Governments production sectors production sectors IDN IDN Indonesia Indonesia e e consumption consumption right right r r primary primary Household Household factors factors MYS MYS Malaysia Malaysia emission emission investment investment CO2 CO2 carbon carbon consumption consumption Governments Governments CO2 CO2 t t n n right right PHL PHL Philippines Philippines e e primary primary r r factors factors Household Household CO2 CO2 THA THA Thailand Thailand emission emission carbon carbon Governments Governments right right LAM LAM Latin America Latin America Household Household primary primary factors factors CO2 CO2 MEA MEA Middle East and North Africa Middle East and North Africa SSA SSA Sub Saharan Africa Sub Saharan Africa Household Household ROW ROW Rest of the World Rest of the World Outline of AIM/Global CGE 3

Economic Impacts of Kyoto Protocol with and without USA (Without Emission Trading and with sink) Japan USA EU Russia 0.10 0.00 (% from baseline) GDP Change -0.10 -0.20 -0.30 -0.40 -0.50 With USA (Left) Without USA (Right) 4

Economic Impact of the Kyoto Protocol without US - Mitigation - 1.00 Without emissions trading 0.80 Emissions trading (Annex B ) Change of GDP (% from baseline) 0.60 Emissions trading (Annex B, 50% Banking) 0.40 0.20 0.00 -0.20 -0.40 Japan US EU CIS -0.60 5

Carbon price (Emissions Trading) (in 2010) 80.0 70.4 70.0 56.3 60.0 50.0 40.0 US$/C 31.6 30.0 16.6 20.0 10.0 0.0 Within Annex B Within Annex B (50% Banking) With US (Left) Without US (Right) 6

T o ta l p rim a ry e n e rgy c o n su m p tio n (E J ) T o ta l p rim a ry e n e rgy c o n su m p tio n (E J ) 1600 1600 1400 1400 Biomass Biomass 1200 1200 Solar Solar 1000 Nuclear 1000 Nuclear 800 Hydro 800 Hydro Coal 600 Coal 600 Gas Gas 400 OIl 400 OIl 200 200 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 (b) WRE 550 ppm (a) reference World energy demand in end use sectors under (a) the reference scenario and (b) WRE 550 scenario. 7

600 500 Carbon Tax (2000US$) WRE 550 ppmv 400 WGI 550 ppmv MID 550 ppmv 300 TAX+10$/tC TAX+25$/tC 200 TAX+100$/tC 100 0 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Projection of GDP marginal costs to reduce emissions 8

20.00 A2-750 ASF A2-750 MESSAGE A1-750 PETRO maximum in literature A2-750 PETRO A1-650 AIM B2-650 MARIA A1-650 MESSAGE A1-650 PETRO A2-650 PETRO A1-550 AIM A2-550 AIM B1-550 AIM B2-550 AIM A2-550 ASF 15.00 A1-550 IMAGE A1-550 LDNE A2-550 LDNE B1-550 LDNE B2-550 LDNE A1-550 MARIA B1-550 MARIA B2-550 MARIA A1-550 MESSAGE A2-550 MESSAGE B2-550 MESSAGE A1-550 MiniCAM A2-550 MiniCAM GtC B1-550 MiniCAM 10.00 B2H-550 MiniCAM B2L-550 MiniCAM A1-550 PETRO A2-550 PETRO A1-550-EA WorldScan A1-550-DR WorldScan A2-550-EA WorldScan A2-550-DR WorldScan B2-550-EA WorldScan B2-550-DR WorldScan A1-450 AIM B1-450 IMAGE B2-450 MARIA 5.00 A1-450 MESSAGE A1-450 PETRO A2-450 PETRO A1-450-EA WorldScan A2-450-EA WorldScan B1-450-DR WorldScan B1-450-EA WorldScan B2-450-EA WorldScan minimum in literature B2-450-DR WorldScan SRES-Minimum SRES-Maximum WRE550 WGI550 Database Max 0.00 Database Min. 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2120 9 Post SRES Mitigation Scenarios

Energy Energy Technology Energy Service - Heating - Oil - Boiler - Lighting - Coal - Power generation - Steel products - Gas - Blast furnace - Cooling - Solar - Air conditioner - Transportation - (Electricity) - Automobile Energy Consumption Technology Service Demand CO2 Emissions Energy Database Technology Database Socio-economic Scenario - Population Growth - Technology price - Energy type - Economic Growth - Energy consumption - Energy price - Industrial Structure - Service supplied - Energy constraints - Employees - Share - CO2 emission factor - Lifestyle - Lifetime Frame of the AIM/Enduse Model 10

Output tables Sum of Value Energy_Device Remov al CK1 CK2 COLBLR Year NO N NO N NO N SFG D _bas e 4,700,000 1,300,000 24,528,000 1,752,000 1995 4,700,000 1,300,000 24,528,000 1,752,000 1996 6,000,000 26,134,533 1,664,400 1997 6,180,000 27,624,834 1,584,466 1998 6,365,400 29,010,707 1,510,876 1999 6,556,362 30,301,836 1,442,662 2000 6,753,053 31,506,418 1,379,091 2001 6,955,645 32,631,543 1,319,587 2002 7,164,314 33,683,447 1,263,694 2003 7,379,244 34,667,680 1,211,035 2004 7,600,621 35,589,232 1,161,300 2005 7,828,640 36,452,618 1,114,226 Link with GIS sytem 0.00 12.50 0.00 25.00 12.50 37.50 50.00 25.00 62.50 37.50 75.00 87.50 50.00 100.00 62.50 112.50 125.00 75.00 137.50 87.50 150.00 162.50 100.00 175.00 112.50 187.50 AIM/Enduse >=200.00 125.00 137.50 150.00 162.50 Database 175.00 187.50 >=200.00 0.00 6.25 12.50 18.75 25.00 31.25 37.50 43.75 50.00 56.25 62.50 68.75 75.00 81.25 87.50 93.75 >=100.00 Structure of the AIM/Enduse Model 11

Estimates of CO 2 Emission in A A A A 1 1 2 2 Japan with AIM/Enduse model B B B B 1 1 2 2 < Reference case > 1,600 A1 1,400 CO 2 Emission (MtCO 2 ) 1,200 A2 B1 B2 1,000 800 600 A1 123 133 A2 114 112 400 B1 113 105 B2 110 99 200 (1990=100) 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 12

A A A A Estimates of CO2 Emission in 1 1 2 2 B B B B Japan with AIM/Enduse model 1 2 1 2 120 200 B1 B2 A1 100 GDP/POP （ 1990=100) A1 B1 150 POP （ 1990=100) A2 A2 80 B2 60 100 2% per year Below 1% 1.5% per 40 0.5% per year 50 year 20 0 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 1990 2000 2010 2020 13

Estimates of CO 2 Emission in A A A A 1 1 2 2 Japan with AIM end-use model B B B B 1 2 1 2 120 120 A1 100 100 ENE/GDP （ 1990=100) CO2/ENE （ 1990=100) A2 A2 B1 B2 B2 80 80 A1 B1 60 60 Shift to Service Oil and coal are Atomic power 40 40 Retain material Industry main energy plant industries 20 20 Advanced technology Lifestyle change 0 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 1990 2000 2010 2020 14

Estimates of CO 2 Emission in A A A A 1 1 2 2 Japan with AIM end-use model B B B B 1 1 2 2 < Countermeasure case > 1,600 CO 2 Emission (MtCO 2 ) 1,400 1,200 A1 1,000 A2 B1 B2 800 600 A1 102 105 A2 96 88 400 B1 98 87 B2 96 83 200 (1990=100) 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 15