Current situation of AIM/Trend, Current situation of AIM/Trend, - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Current situation of AIM/Trend, Current situation of AIM/Trend, AIM/CGE(Asia CGE(Asia) ) AIM/ Junichi Fujino The 8th AIM International Workshop; 13-15, March 2003 National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan 1

Role of AIM/Trend and Role of AIM/Trend and AIM/CGE(Asia CGE(Asia) ) AIM/ • AIM/Trend: econometric method – Regression methods – AP 42 countries, year of 2032 – Grasp overview of country (regional)-level economic, energy, environmental indicators for development of AIM/CGE(Asia) • AIM/CGE(Asia): top-down economy model – Computer general equilibrium model – AP 17 countries, year of 2100 – Develop socio-economic scenarios based on economic theory for AIM/Trend, AIM/Enduse, AIM/Material 2

Topics of AIM/Trend Topics of AIM/Trend • AIM/Trend(world) – Global 14 regions, year of 2050 • AIM/Trend/Biomass – biomass demand 3

AIM/Trend (world) AIM/Trend (world) JPN Japan OCN Australia and New Zealand CHN China Asia IND India EAA East Asia SEA South East Asia and Oceania SOA Other South Asia USA USA Other OECD CAN Canada EUR OECD Europe Transition Economies EEU CIS and Eastern Europe MEA Middle East Other Developing LAM Latin America AFR Africa 4

GDP scenario GDP scenario 140000 AFR LAM 120000 MEA EEU 100000 EUR GDP (Bil.US$) CAN 80000 USA SOA 60000 SEA EAA 40000 IND CHN 20000 OCN JPN 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 5

CO 2 emissions CO 2 emissions 25000 AFR LAM 20000 MEA EEU CO2 emissions (Mt-C) EUR 15000 CAN USA SOA 10000 SEA EAA IND 5000 CHN OCN JPN 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 6

AIM/Trend/Biomass –Food- 7

Vegetable food demand trajectory 3500 AUS Vegetable food (cal/cap/day) JPN 3000 KOR NZL CHN,IDN CHN 2500 JPN IND PRK VNM 2000 BGD MYS 1500 IDN AUS,NZL THA IND PHL 1000 KOR LKA 500 MMR MYS 0 NPL PAK 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 PHL THA GDP per capita (1000US$/cap) 8

Meat demand trajectory 1600 Meat without fish (cal/cap/day) AUS 1400 JPN NZL 1200 CHN AUS PRK 1000 NZL VNM BGD 800 IDN 600 CHN IND MYS KOR 400 LKA JPN THA MMR 200 IND MYS KOR 0 IDN NPL PAK 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 PHL THA GDP per capita (1000US$/cap) 9

AIM/CGE(ASIA) AIM/CGE(ASIA) • Type: Top-down, CGE, recursive • Program ： GTAP-EG/GAMS/MPSGE • Database ： GTAP ver.5(1997), IEA and so on… • Target Year: 2030/2100 • Target Region: 26 regions(17 AP countries) • Target Sector: 24 sectors 10

Economic Top-down: AIM/CGE(Asia) Region(26) AUS,NZL,CHN,HKG,JPN,KOR,TWN,IDN,MYS,PHL,SGP,THA,VNM BGD,IND,LKA, ASI, CAN,USA,WEU,EEU,FSU,MEA,LAM,AFR, ROW NPL, PAK, BTN, MDV Include other Asia-Pacific countries Sector(24) Factor(5) * Energy * Agriculture Capital OIL FPR: Food Labor COL LUM: Wood Skilled Labor GAS AGR: Agricultural Resource P_C: Oil products Land * Other industry ELY: Electricity NFM, TRN, OME, * Energy Intensive LUM, CNS, TWL, OMF I_S: Iron and steel * Other sector CRP: Chemical ATP, T_T PPP: Pulp and paper SER, DWE NMM: Non-metal CGD 11 OMN: Mining

Structure of AIM/CGE (Asia) production and service sector produced intermediate, goods and energy, capital, labor service market capital labor import final export demand household abroad government 12

Modification of energy supply • Fossil fuel resource • Renewable energy • Energy conversion (electricity) • Monetary balance and physical balance 13

Fossil fuel production crude oil, natural gas, coal production capital labor Intermediate resource products Ch i n a I n d i a Ma l a y s i a I n d o n e s i a Au s t r a l i a ) 4 0 0 e o t 3 5 0 / $ 3 0 0 ( t s 2 5 0 o c 2 0 0 n o 1 5 0 i t c 1 0 0 u d 5 0 o r p 0 0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 14 c r u d e o i l r e s o u r c e ( Mt o e )

Bioenergy production plantation bioenergy capital labor Intermediate land products residue bioenergy capital Intermediate labor products 15

Electricity generation (hydro power) electricity capital labor Intermediate resource products Ch i n a I n d i a Ma l a y s i a Ne p a l 8 7 ) h 6 W k / 5 t n 4 e c ( 3 t s 2 o c 1 0 0 5 0 0 1 , 0 0 0 1 , 5 0 0 2 , 0 0 0 2 , 5 0 0 16 r e s o u r c e ( T Wh / y r )

Reconciliation Module for Reconciliation Module for AIM/CGE(Asia CGE(Asia) model ) model AIM/ AIM/CGE(Asia) Data Process Database Module IEA; energy balance price Reconciliation Module GTAP ver.5 Reconciled Reconciled Dataset Dataset for CGE for CGE 17

G T A P ( 1 0 b i l $ ) Comparison between GTAP and IEA 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 0 . 1 1 1 1 G A S E L Y O I L P _ C I _ S C R P (Japan, Gas) N F M N M T R N G O M E T A O M N P F P R P P P I E L U M A C N S T W L A G R A T P T _ T S E R C G D 0 0 0 1 1 . . . 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 I E A ( E J ) 18

Comparison between GTAP and IEA (Japan, Electricity) G T A P I E A 1 0 1 ) $ l 1 0 . 1 ) i h b L L S Y S E S T P N N R P R P R M M M 0 _ _ W L I E A T 1 O R R P P N W F M G M U M T T ( E S F T P T A ( G C C L C A N O O N P A A E I T 0 . 1 0 . 0 1 G 0 . 0 1 0 . 0 0 1 19

AIM/CGE(Asia CGE(Asia) and ) and AIM(country AIM(country) ) AIM/ AIM AIM (China) (India) AIM AIM (ASEAN) (Rest of the World) AIM/CGE/ASIA （ Asia17 regions ） AIM (Other Asia) 20

Next steps Next steps • AIM/Trend – Development of biomass part, non-CO2 gas part – More user-friendly interface • AIM/CGE(Asia) Develop 1 st version – Collecting and modifying energy data – Monetary balance and physical balance – Including economic characteristics (ex. failure of market, unemployment) – Technology description (ex. induced technology) 21