Current situation of AIM/Trend, Current situation of AIM/Trend, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Current situation of AIM/Trend, Current situation of AIM/Trend, AIM/ AIM/CGE(Asia CGE(Asia) )

Junichi Fujino

The 8th AIM International Workshop; 13-15, March 2003 National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan

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• AIM/Trend: econometric method

– Regression methods – AP 42 countries, year of 2032 – Grasp overview of country (regional)-level economic, energy, environmental indicators for development of AIM/CGE(Asia)

• AIM/CGE(Asia): top-down economy model

– Computer general equilibrium model – AP 17 countries, year of 2100 – Develop socio-economic scenarios based on economic theory for AIM/Trend, AIM/Enduse, AIM/Material

Role of AIM/Trend and Role of AIM/Trend and AIM/ AIM/CGE(Asia CGE(Asia) )

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• AIM/Trend(world)

– Global 14 regions, year of 2050

• AIM/Trend/Biomass

– biomass demand

Topics of AIM/Trend Topics of AIM/Trend

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AIM/Trend (world) AIM/Trend (world)

JPN Japan OCN Australia and New Zealand CHN China IND India EAA East Asia SEA South East Asia and Oceania SOA Other South Asia USA USA CAN Canada EUR OECD Europe Transition Economies EEU CIS and Eastern Europe MEA Middle East LAM Latin America AFR Africa Asia Other Developing Other OECD

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GDP scenario GDP scenario

20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 GDP (Bil.US$) AFR LAM MEA EEU EUR CAN USA SOA SEA EAA IND CHN OCN JPN

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CO CO2

2 emissions

emissions

5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 CO2 emissions (Mt-C) AFR LAM MEA EEU EUR CAN USA SOA SEA EAA IND CHN OCN JPN

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AIM/Trend/Biomass –Food-

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Vegetable food demand trajectory

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 GDP per capita (1000US$/cap) Vegetable food (cal/cap/day)

AUS JPN NZL CHN PRK VNM BGD IDN IND KOR LKA MMR MYS NPL PAK PHL THA

AUS,NZL JPN KOR MYS THA PHL CHN,IDN IND

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Meat demand trajectory

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 GDP per capita (1000US$/cap) Meat without fish (cal/cap/day)

AUS JPN NZL CHN PRK VNM BGD IDN IND KOR LKA MMR MYS NPL PAK PHL THA

JPN AUS NZL KOR MYS CHN THA IDN IND

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AIM/CGE(ASIA) AIM/CGE(ASIA)

• Type: Top-down, CGE, recursive
• Program：

GTAP-EG/GAMS/MPSGE

• Database：

GTAP ver.5(1997), IEA and so

• n…
• Target Year: 2030/2100
• Target Region: 26 regions(17 AP countries)
• Target Sector: 24 sectors

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Economic Top-down: AIM/CGE(Asia)

AUS,NZL,CHN,HKG,JPN,KOR,TWN,IDN,MYS,PHL,SGP,THA,VNM BGD,IND,LKA,

Region(26)

CAN,USA,WEU,EEU,FSU,MEA,LAM,AFR,

Sector(24)

* Energy OIL COL GAS P_C: Oil products ELY: Electricity * Agriculture FPR: Food LUM: Wood AGR: Agricultural * Energy Intensive I_S: Iron and steel CRP: Chemical PPP: Pulp and paper NMM: Non-metal OMN: Mining * Other industry NFM, TRN, OME, LUM, CNS, TWL, OMF * Other sector ATP, T_T SER, DWE CGD

Factor(5)

Capital Labor Skilled Labor Resource Land ASI, NPL, PAK, BTN, MDV ROW Include other Asia-Pacific countries

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Structure of AIM/CGE (Asia)

production and service sector household government abroad market

produced goods and service capital labor intermediate, energy, capital, labor import export final demand

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Modification of energy supply

• Fossil fuel resource
• Renewable energy
• Energy conversion (electricity)
• Monetary balance and physical balance

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Fossil fuel production

crude oil, natural gas, coal production Intermediate products capital labor resource

5 1 1 5 2 2 5 3 3 5 4 2 4 6 8 1 1 2 c r u d e

• i

l r e s

• u

r c e ( Mt

• e

) p r

• d

u c t i

• n

c

• s

t ( $ / t

• e

) Ch i n a I n d i a Ma l a y s i a I n d

• n

e s i a Au s t r a l i a

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Bioenergy production

plantation bioenergy Intermediate products capital labor land residue bioenergy Intermediate products capital labor

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Electricity generation (hydro power)

electricity Intermediate products capital labor resource

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 5 1 , 1 , 5 2 , 2 , 5 r e s

• u

r c e ( T Wh / y r ) c

• s

t ( c e n t / k W h ) Ch i n a I n d i a Ma l a y s i a Ne p a l

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Reconciliation Module for Reconciliation Module for AIM/ AIM/CGE(Asia CGE(Asia) model ) model

Database

IEA; energy balance price Reconciled Dataset for CGE GTAP ver.5 Reconciliation Module

Data Process Module AIM/CGE(Asia)

Reconciled Dataset for CGE

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Comparison between GTAP and IEA (Japan, Gas)

. 1 . 1 . 1 1 G A S E L Y O I L P _ C I _ S C R P N F M N M T R N O M E O M N F P R P P P L U M C N S T W L A G R A T P T _ T S E R C G D G T A P ( 1 b i l $ ) . 1 . 1 . 1 1 1 I E A ( E J ) G T A P I E A

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Comparison between GTAP and IEA (Japan, Electricity)

. 1 . 1 1 1 G A S E L Y C O L I _ S C R P N F M N M M T R N O M E O M N F P R P P P L U M C N S T W L A G R A T P T _ T S E R G T A P ( 1 b i l $ ) . 1 . 1 . 1 1 I E A ( T W h ) G T A P I E A

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AIM (China) AIM (ASEAN) AIM (Other Asia) AIM (India) AIM/CGE/ASIA （ Asia17 regions ） AIM (Rest of the World)

AIM/ AIM/CGE(Asia CGE(Asia) and ) and AIM(country AIM(country) )

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Next steps Next steps

• AIM/Trend

– Development of biomass part, non-CO2 gas part – More user-friendly interface

• AIM/CGE(Asia)

Develop 1st version – Collecting and modifying energy data – Monetary balance and physical balance – Including economic characteristics (ex. failure of market, unemployment) – Technology description (ex. induced technology)