AIM/Trend Model AIM/Trend Model Junichi Fujino (NIES, Japan) The - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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AIM/Trend Model AIM/Trend Model Junichi Fujino (NIES, Japan) The - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Oct 29, 2023 382 likes •543 views

AIM/Trend Model AIM/Trend Model Junichi Fujino (NIES, Japan) The 7th AIM International Workshop; 15-16, March 2002 National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan 1 Objectives Objectives To prospect the situation of economy,

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Junichi Fujino (NIES, Japan)

AIM/Trend Model AIM/Trend Model

The 7th AIM International Workshop; 15-16, March 2002 National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan

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Objectives Objectives

To prospect the situation of economy, energy and environment in Asia-Pacific region

  • to cover as wide a range of countries in Asia-Pacific

region (42 countries)

  • the target year is 2032 (= Johannesburg summit + 30)
  • to use simple method and develop several scenarios
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Target Country Target Country

Detailed Model Application (Model A) Simple Model Application (Model B)

C

  • d

e C

  • u

n t r y G r

  • u

p A U SA u s t r a l i a A N Z B G DB a n g l a d e s h S A C H NC h i n a E A I D N I n d

  • n

e s i a S E A I N D I n d i a S A I R N I r a n S A J P N J a p a n E A K A ZK a z a k h s t a n C A K G ZK y r g y z R e p u b l i c C A K O RK

  • r

e a , R e p E A L K A S r i L a n k a S A M M RM y a n m a r S E A M Y SM a l a y s i a S E A N P LN e p a l S A N Z LN e w Z e a l a n d A N Z P A K P a k i s t a n S A P H LP h i l i p p i n e s S E A P R K K

  • r

e a , D e m E A S G PS i n g a p

  • r

e S E A T H A T h a i l a n d S E A T J K T a j i k i s t a n C A T K M T u r k m e n i s t a n C A T W NT a i w a n E A U Z B U z b e k i s t a n C A V N M V i e t n a m S E A C

  • d

e C

  • u

n t r y G r

  • u

p A F G A f g h a n i s t a n S A B R N B r u n e i S E A B T N B h u t a n S A F J IF i j i S P K H M C a m b

  • d

i a S E A K I R K i r i b a t i S P L A O L a

  • S

E A M D VM a l d i v e s S A M N GM

  • n

g

  • l

i a E A N R U N a u r u S P P L W P a l a u S P P N G P a p u a N e w G u i n e a S P P Y F F r e n c h P

  • l

y n e s i a S P S L B S

  • l
  • m
  • n

I s l a n d s S P T O N T

  • n

g a S P V U TV a n u a t u S P W S M S a m

  • a

S P C

  • d

e G r

  • u

p S A S

  • u

t h A s i a S E AS

  • u

t h e a s t A s i a E A N

  • r

t h w e s t P a c i f i c a n d E a s t A s i a C A C e t r a l A s i a A N ZA u s t r a l i a A n d N e w Z e a l a n d S P S

  • u

t h P a c i f i c

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(1) Population: population, rate of urbanization (2) Economy: GDP (growth rate, per capita), GDP share (agriculture, industry, service, PFC (private final consumption), car holders (3) Energy: primary energy supply by fuel, final energy demand by fuel and sector, energy plant, economic intensity, carbon intensity (4) Environment: GHGs (CO2, SOx, NOx, CH4, N2O, CO), wastes (5) Water: withdrawal, consumption (agriculture, industry, domestic), population in water stress* (6) Food and Agriculture*: average daily consumption, vegetable food consumption, animal food consumption, fraction of meat from feedlots, fish production, crop production, feed production, nitrogen fertilizer consumption (7) Land use*: crop land, irrigated cropland, potential cultivable land, mature forest, growing forest, pasture, protected, other land (8) Human Health*: SPM (PM10, PM2.5) (9) Biodiversity*: species, degree of threat to biological diversity, area of habitat remaining Note: sign “*” means the element under consideration

Target Index Target Index

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Model Structure Model Structure

Population Economy Energy Supply and Demand GHGs Emissions Water Supply and Demand Wastes Driving Forces

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Model Procedures Model Procedures

Regression analysis Prospect

y = 9.8494x

  • 0.5724

R2 = 0.9778 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 500 1000 1500 2000 GDP/cap [1995US$/cap] AVA share of GDP [%]

GDP share (AVA, IVA, SVA) car holders final energy demand energy share Scenario Setting GDP, population, AEEI non fossil fuel supply… Regression results GDP share, final energy demand… Others

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Calculation Flow of Energy Supply and Demand (Model A) Calculation Flow of Energy Supply and Demand (Model A)

Driving Force Population GDP *IVASHR *AVASHR *PFCSHR CARCAP Elasticity IND: IVA TPR: CAR TPO: GDP AGR: AVA OTH: PFC Final Energy Demand IND, TPR, TPO, AGR, OTH Electricity Share Heat Share IND, TPR, TPO, AGR, OTH Final Energy Demand: without Electricity and Heat IND, TPR, TPO, AGR, OTH Primary Energy Supply IND, TPR, TPO, AGR, OTH Final Energy Demand: Electricity and Heat IND, TPR, TPO, AGR, OTH Input for Elc.plant, Heat plant, and CHP Fossil fuel power plant share Fossil fuel share AEEI Generation efficiency Distribution loss

IVA: Industry Value Added AVA: Agriculture Value Added PFC: Private Final Consumption CARCAP: Car holders per capita IND: Industry TPR: Transport on road TPO: Other transport AGR: Agriculture OTH: Other

Non-fossil fuel supply Non-fossil fuel supply Scenario Regression Calculation (Fix)

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GEO3 scenario Market Forces (MF): market driven developments converge

  • n the values and expectations that prevail in industrialized

countries Policy Reform (PR): concerted action on environment and social issues occurs through incremental policy adjustments Fortress World (FW): inequality and conflict prevail, brought about by socio-economic and environmental stresses Great Transitions (GT): a new development paradigm emerges in response to the challenge of sustainability, supported by new values and institutions

Scenarios Scenarios

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Scenarios of Population and GDP Scenarios of Population and GDP

1 2 3 4 5 6 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Population (Bil. cap) MF FW PR GT 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 GDP (Tri. US$) MF FW PR GT

Population GDP

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50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Total Primary Energy Supply (EJ/yr) OCE CA EA SEA SA 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Total Primary Energy Supply (EJ/yr) OCE CA EA SEA SA 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Total Primary Energy Supply (EJ/yr) OCE CA EA SEA SA 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Total Primary Energy Supply (EJ/yr) OCE CA EA SEA SA

MF PR GT FW

Scenarios of Scenarios of Total Primary Energy Supply Total Primary Energy Supply

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1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 CO2 emissions (Mt-C/yr) OCE CA EA SEA SA 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 CO2 emissions (Mt-C/yr) OCE CA EA SEA SA 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 CO2 emissions (Mt-C/yr) OCE CA EA SEA SA 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 CO2 emissions (Mt-C/yr) OCE CA EA SEA SA

MF PR GT FW

Scenarios of CO Scenarios of CO2

2

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500 1000 1500 2000 2500 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Population (Mil.cap) PAK NPL MDV LKA IRN IND BTN BGD AFG 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 GDP (Bil.US$/yr) PAK NPL MDV LKA IRN IND BTN BGD AFG 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TPS (MTOE/yr) PAK NPL MDV LKA IRN IND BTN BGD AFG 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 CO2 (Mt-C/yr) PAK NPL MDV LKA IRN IND BTN BGD AFG

Population GDP CO2 emissions Total Primary Energy Supply

Scenarios of SA region (MF) Scenarios of SA region (MF)

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0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 GDP share (%) 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 GDP (Bil. US$) AVASHR IVASHR SVASHR GDP 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Final Energy Demand by Sector (MTOE/yr) OTH AGR TPO TPR IND 5 10 15 20 25 30 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Electricity Generation (MTOE/yr) GEO HYD NUC CRW GAS OIL COL 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Primary Energy Supply by Fuel (Mtoe/yr) NEW GEO HYD NUC CRW GAS OIL COL

GDP Final Energy Demand Primary Energy Supply Electricity

Scenarios of Thailand (MF) Scenarios of Thailand (MF)

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Next steps Next steps

  • Revised AIM/Trend model (version.2).
  • Scenarios should be checked by experts in each

region.

  • Develop renewables, nuclear ,gas supply scenario.
  • Add waste sector, food/biomass sector…
  • Other role of AIM/Trend model:

database, display of scenario results AIM/Trend scenarios can be used as input data for

  • ther AIM models (AIM/CGE, AIM/Country...)