SLIDE 1
AIM/CGE Model Model in in AIM/CGE Low Carbon Society Project Low - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
AIM/CGE Model Model in in AIM/CGE Low Carbon Society Project Low - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
AIM/CGE Model Model in in AIM/CGE Low Carbon Society Project Low Carbon Society Project Toshihiko MASUI Toshihiko MASUI National Institute for Environmental Studies National Institute for Environmental Studies The AIM Training Workshop
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AIM, NIES
Process of model development Process of model development and simulations and simulations
- Input-output table
(or U matrix and V matrix)
- Fixed capital formation matrix
(or investment by sector)
- Capital stock matrix if possible
- Price data if treating physical unit
- CO2 emission factor
Benchmark year AIM/CGE benchmark year Checking consistency with benchmark data
- Input-output coefficient
- Consumption pattern (preference
change)
- Endowments of capital and labor
- Direct cost and effectiveness of
countermeasure
- Energy supply
- International price and trade
Target year AIM/CGE target year Check of simulation result in targett year
- Economic activity
- CO2 emissions
- Consistency with
narrative storyline GAMS program
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AIM, NIES
final demand sector technology in production sectors
Image of AIM/CGE Image of AIM/CGE
socio economic development population labor input coefficient
- utput coefficient
capital stock matrix capital technology change market foreign market service life labor market capital market input matrix
- utput matrix
capital stock matrix energy balance table preference final consumption income expenditure income expenditure balance : assumptions and input data : factors calculated in this tool production intermediate demand : markets : commodity flows : monetary flows : balanced conditions CO2 CO2 Investment : other flows : parameters on technology results from other models technology progress
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AIM, NIES
Overall of AIM/CGE (1) Overall of AIM/CGE (1)
commodities and activities
primary energy
– coal, crude oil, natural gas, nuclear, hydro, other renewable (solar, wind, waste, biomass, ...)
final energy
– coal products, oil products, town gas, electricity, heat, hydrogen, biomass (solid, liquid, gas)
Non-energy
– agriculture, forestry, fishery, foods, textile, paper, chemical, cement, other ceramic, steel, non-steel metal, machinery, other production, construction, water, whole sale & retail trade, finance & insurance, real estate, transport (passenger, freight), communication, public service, other service
Definition of commodity and activity can be changed according to your purpose.
SLIDE 6
AIM, NIES
Overall of AIM/CGE (2) Overall of AIM/CGE (2)
i: commodity e∈i: energy goods n∈i: non-energy goods j: activity
( )
, , ,
, , ,
j i j e j n j j j
V f U U CAP LAB =
: production function ①
, j i i i i ij i i i i j j
V W IMP EXP U CH CG IH IG + + − = + + + +
∑ ∑
②
j j
TK CAP =∑
j j
TL LAB =∑
i i i i i i i
GDP CH CG IH IG EXP IMP = + + + + −
∑
, ,
*
i i j j j j i j i i i
P U PK CAP PL LAB P V ∗ + ∗ + ∗ =
∑ ∑
( )
( )
,
, , , ,
i i j i j i j i i j
IH IG g d g K gs d gs SK + = +
∑
, j j j i j i
CAP CAPH CAPG K = + =∑
: commodity market : capital market : labor market : calculation of GDE : expenditure and income in production sector : investment goods market : capital stock ③ ④ ⑤ ⑥
( ) ( )
* , *
i i i i
IMP imp EXP exp = =
: assumption of import and export
( )
* * *
j i i i i j i i
PK CAPH PL TL W ah P CH IH + + + = +
∑ ∑ ∑
( )
* *
j i i i j i
PK CAPG ag P CG IG + = +
∑ ∑
⑧ ⑦ ⑨ ⑩ ⑪
( )
, i j j j
K k CAP =
: fixed capital stock matrix : expenditure and income in household : expenditure and income in government Vji: output Uij: intermediate demand CAPj: capital input CAPHj: capital input (private) CAPGj: capital input (public) LABj: labor input Wi: waste generation from final demand sector IMPi: import EXPi: export CHi: final consumption (household) CGi: final consumption (government) IHi: fixed capital formation (private) IGi : fixed capital formation (public) TK: total capital TL: total labor GDP: gross domestic products Pi: commodity price PKj: capital price PL: labor price Kij: capital stock by sectors by investment goods SKi: social stock by investment goods CO2: CO2 emissions fj: production function impi: import function expi: export function kj: capital stock matrix gj, gs: investment function
( )
, ,
2 * *
e e e e j e j e j
CO ef CH CG er U = + +
∑ ∑
⑫ : CO2 emission ah: net income transfer in household ag: net income transfer in government di: service year gj, gs: change in 2050 efe: emission factor ere,j: fuel combustion rate
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AIM, NIES
Image of input & output Image of input & output
energy balance table (input) input matrix energy non- energy production sector final demand sector value added energy balance table (output)
- utput matrix
energy non energy
- utput coefficient
- n energy
production and cost production and income commodity supply commodity demand fixed capital stock matrix production social cap. goods capital stock labor capital compensation
- f cap. goods
final cons investment import&export input coefficient
- n non-energy
- utput coefficient
- n non-energy
capital profile in sector SNA tech& preference IO table in 2000 fixed capital
- form. matrix
in 2000 tech tech V matrix in 2000 economic growth
input data in 2000 assumption balance condition
intermediate demand
- ext. trnsact.
account account of
- inc. & expnd.
Input coefficient
- n energy
energy balance table in 2000 ① ① ② ② ③ ④ ⑤ ⑥ ⑥ ⑥ ⑦ ⑧ ⑩ ① ① ⑪ ⑦ ⑩ ⑪ ⑨ ② tech tech
- utput
CO2 ⑫ ⑫
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AIM, NIES
Pre Preliminary results liminary results
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Agriculture Forestry Fishing Coal mining Crude oil & NG mining Other mining Food products & beverages Textiles Pulp, paper & paper products Publishing & printing Chemical materials Chemical products Petroleum products Coal products Non-metallic mineral Pig iron & crude steel Other steel products Non-ferrous metal Fabricated metal products Machinery Elec.machine, equip. & supplies Transport equipment Precision instruments Other manufacturing Construction Thermal power plant Non-thermal power plant Town gas Water supply Wholesale & retail trade Finance & insurance Real estate Railway transport Road transport Water transport Air transport Other transport Communications Public service activities Other service activities
<Sectors>
- Tri. yen at 2000 price
2000 2050 A 2050 B
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AIM, NIES
Pre Preliminary results liminary results
- 1.0
- 0.5
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Production share(%) Annual change of prodution (%/year)
A agriculture, forestry & fishery A mining A energy intensive A machinery A other manufacturing A construction A electricity A whole sale & retail trade A finance & insurance A transportation & communication A public service A other service B agriculture, forestry & fishery B mining B energy intensive B machinery B other manufacturing B construction B electricity B whole sale & retail trade B finance & insurance B transportation & communication B public service B other service
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AIM, NIES
Attempts to draw low carbon society Attempts to draw low carbon society
- 3 -2 -1