CGE Model and its Role in CGE Model and its Role in Low Carbon - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

SLIDE 1

CGE Model and its Role in CGE Model and its Role in Low Carbon Society Project Low Carbon Society Project

Toshihiko MASUI Toshihiko MASUI

National Institute for Environmental Studies National Institute for Environmental Studies The 11th AIM International Workshop The 11th AIM International Workshop Ohyama Ohyama Memorial Hall, NIES Memorial Hall, NIES February 20th, 2006 February 20th, 2006

SLIDE 2

AIM, NIES

Role of this tool Role of this tool

This tool draws the balanced macro economy,

based on social conditions such as population, technology and preference, countermeasures proposed by other teams, and the energy efficiency and primary energy supply estimated from bottom-up models.

Supply and demand of energies are estimated

from hybrid account system which consists of energy balance table and SNA.

Based on the story lines, capital stock, income

from/to the rest of the world and other account are taken into account.

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final demand sector technology in production sectors

Image of tool

socio economic development population labor input coefficient

• utput coefficient

capital stock matrix capital technology change market foreign market service life labor market capital market input matrix

• utput matrix

capital stock matrix energy balance table preference final consumption income expenditure income expenditure balance : assumptions and input data : factors calculated in this tool production intermediate demand : markets : commodity flows : monetary flows : balanced conditions CO2 CO2 Investment : other flows : parameters on technology results from other models technology progress

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AIM, NIES

Overall of this tool (1) Overall of this tool (1)

commodities and activities

primary energy

– coal, crude oil, natural gas, nuclear, hydro, other renewable (solar, wind, waste, biomass, ...)

final energy

– coal products, oil products, town gas, electricity, heat, hydrogen, biomass (solid, liquid, gas)

Non-energy

– agriculture, forestry, fishery, foods, textile, paper, chemical (material, products), cement, other ceramic, steel, non-steel metal, machinery, other production, construction, water, whole sale & retail trade, finance & insurance, real estate, transport (passenger, freight), communication, public service, other service

SLIDE 5

Overall of this tool (2)

i: commodity e∈i: energy goods n∈i: non-energy goods j: activity

( )

, , ,

, , ,

j i j e j n j j j

V f U U CAP LAB =

: production function

, j i i i i ij i i i i j j

V W IMP EXP U CH CG IH IG + + − = + + + +

①

∑ ∑

j j

TK CAP =

②

∑

j j

TL LAB =∑

i i i i i i i

GDP CH CG IH IG EXP IMP = + + + + −

∑

, ,

*

i i j j j j i j i i i

P U PK CAP PL LAB P V ∗ + ∗ + ∗ =

∑ ∑

( )

( )

,

, , , ,

i i j i j i j i j

IH IG g d g K gs d gs SK + = +

i

∑

, j j j i j i

CAP CAPH CAPG K = + =∑

: commodity market : capital market : labor market : calculation of GDE : expenditure and income in production sector : capital stock : investment goods market ③ ④ ⑤ ⑥

( ) ( )

* , *

i i i i

IMP imp EXP exp = =

: assumption of import and export

( )

* * *

j i i i i j i i

PK CAPH PL TL W ah P CH IH + + + = +

∑ ∑ ∑

( )

* *

j i i i j i

PK CAPG ag P CG IG + = +

∑ ∑

⑦ ⑧ ⑨ ⑩ ⑪

( )

, i j j j

K k CAP =

: fixed capital stock matrix : expenditure and income in household : expenditure and income in government fj: production function impi: import function expi: export function kj: capital stock matrix gj, gs: investment function Vji: output Uij: intermediate demand CAPj: capital input CAPHj: capital input (private) CAPGj: capital input (public) LABj: labor input Wi: waste generation from final demand sector IMPi: import EXPi: export CHi: final consumption (household) CGi: final consumption (government) IHi: fixed capital formation (private) IGi : fixed capital formation (public) TK: total capital TL: total labor GDP: gross domestic products Pi: commodity price PKj: capital price PL: labor price Kij: capital stock by sectors by investment goods SKi: social stock by investment goods CO2: CO2 emissions

( )

, ,

2 * *

e e e e j e j e j

CO ef CH CG er U = + +

∑ ∑

: CO2 emission ah: net income transfer in household ag: net income transfer in government di: service year gj, gs: change in 2050 efe: emission factor ere,j: fuel combustion rate ⑫

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Image of input & output

energy balance table (input) input matrix energy non- energy production sector final demand sector value added energy balance table (output)

• utput matrix

energy non energy

• utput coefficient
• n energy

production and cost production and income commodity supply commodity demand fixed capital stock matrix production social cap. goods capital stock labor capital compensation

• f cap. goods

final cons investment import&export input coefficient

• n non-energy
• utput coefficient
• n non-energy

capital profile in sector SNA tech& preference IO table in 2000 fixed capital

• form. matrix

in 2000 tech tech V matrix in 2000 economic growth

input data in 2000 assumption balance condition

intermediate demand

• ext. trnsact.

account account of

• inc. & expnd.

Input coefficient

• n energy

energy balance table in 2000 ① ① ② ② ③ ④ ⑤ ⑥ ⑥ ⑥ ⑦ ⑧ ⑩ ① ① ⑪ ⑦ ⑩ ⑪ ⑨ ② tech tech

• utput

CO2 ⑫ ⑫

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AIM, NIES

Attempts to draw low carbon society Attempts to draw low carbon society

• 3 -2 -1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Reference (1) (2000-2050) Reference (2) (2000-2050) Reduction (1) (2000-2050) Reduction (2) (2000-2050) 1955-1960 1960-1970 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000 1955-2000 Annual change (%)

CO2 Population GDP per capita Energy intensity Carbon intensity