Global CGE model Junichi Fujino APEIS Training Workshop Nov. 25 to - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Global CGE model Junichi Fujino APEIS Training Workshop Nov. 25 to - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Global CGE model Junichi Fujino APEIS Training Workshop Nov. 25 to Dec. 8, 2004, National Institute of Environment Studies, Tsukuba Dec.8 2004 1 Country CGE model and Global CGE model Japan C->G: Detailed economic activity CGE

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Global CGE model

Junichi Fujino

APEIS Training Workshop

  • Nov. 25 to Dec. 8, 2004, National Institute of

Environment Studies, Tsukuba Dec.8 2004

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Country CGE model and Global CGE model

Global CGE model Japan CGE model China CGE model Thailand CGE model India CGE model Other CGE model C->G: Detailed economic activity G->C: Import/export scenario

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GTAP and GTAP-EG

GTAP ver 5.4 (ver 6 will be published in next March)

Globally economy data 78 regions, 57 sectors Overview of country CGE data + global trade data

GTAP-EG

CGE programs including trade structure Static model, MPSGE written in GAMS Armington trade substitution

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GTAP for Asian regions

1 AUS Australia 2 NZL New Zealand 3 CHN China 4 HKG Hong Kong 5 JPN Japan 6 KOR Korea 7 TWN Taiwan 8 IDN Indonesia 9 MYS Malaysia 10 PHL Philippines 11 SGP Singapore 12 THA Thailand 13 VNM Vietnam 14 BGD Bangladesh 15 IND India 16 LKA Sri Lanka 17 XSA Rest of South Asia

3 XOC Rest of Oceania 17 BGD Bangladesh

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GTAP-EG

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Main issues with global CGE model

World：Long-term Emissions Scenarios including non-CO2 gases Japan and World：FTA bilateral/multi-lateral trade Japan：carbon tax Japanese scenarios and world

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Overview of AIM/Top-down model

Data from GTAP (ver.3) and energy balance

table (IEA)

Computable general equilibrium model with

recursive dynamics

CO2 emissions from fossil fuels Time period: 1992-2010 Region: 21 Sector: 8

AIM/Top-down model

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Outline of AIM/CGE

Fuels Electricity Non-energy goods Governments Household

carbon emission right rent primary factors investment input input consumption consumption input input input

production sectors

CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2 Fuels Electricity Non-energy goods Governments Household

carbon emission right rent primary factors investment input input consumption consumption input input input

production sectors

CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2

Output Energy Primary Factor Labor Capital Electricity Fossil Fuel Intermediates Goods Fuel goods Carbon Right Production structure nesting

Elasticity of Substitution = 0

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Y Agricultures, other manufactures and services COL Coal CRU Crude CRU GAS Natural gas EGW Electricity OIL Petroleum and coal products (refined) EIS Energy intensive products TRN Transport industries CGD Savings good

Classification of sector

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JPN Japan CHN China AUS Australia IDI India NZL New Zealand IDN Indonesia USA United States of America MYS Malaysia CAN Canada PHL Philippines EUR Western Europe THA Thailand TWN Taiwan LAM Latin America KOR Republic of Korea MEA Middle East and North Africa HKG Hong Kong SSA Sub Saharan Africa SGP Singapore ROW Rest of World EEU+ CIS Eastern Europe + Commonwealth of Independent States

Definition of region

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Emission trade Climate policy in US and Australia Japan Others BaU No CO2 reduction Scenarios reducing CO2 emissions Half of reduction Half of reduction Scenario 1 Keep original policy No trade Scenario 2 Keep original policy 1.6% of emissions in 1990 Scenario 3 Ratify Kyoto in 2008 1.6% of emissions in 1990 Scenario 4 Keep original policy Half of reduction

Scenarios for analysis

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Carbon Price

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 JPN AUS NZL USA CAN EUR EEU+CIS Carbon price ($/tC at 1992 price) Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4

Price of carbon tax in 2010

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GDP change

  • 2.0
  • 1.5
  • 1.0
  • 0.5

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 JPN AUS NZL USA CAN EUR EEU +CIS CHN IDI GDP change in 2010 compared to reference case (%) Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4

GDP change in 2010 compared to BaU

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Production change in Japan

  • 35
  • 30
  • 25
  • 20
  • 15
  • 10
  • 5

Y COL GAS EGW OIL EIS TRN GDP Change of production/GDP compared to reference case (%) Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4

Change of production in each sector and GDP in Japan (2010)

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EII production change

  • 12
  • 10
  • 8
  • 6
  • 4
  • 2

2 4 JPN AUS NZL USA CAN EUR TWN KOR HKG SGP EEU+ CISCHN IDI IDN MYS PHL THA LAM MEA SSA ROW Change of EIS production in 2010 compared to reference case (%) Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4

Change of energy intensive industry production in 2010 compared to BaU

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Basic framework of AIM/ Basic framework of AIM/CGE(Asia CGE(Asia) )

Type: Top-down, CGE, recursive dynamics Program：GTAP-EG/GAMS/MPSGE Database：GTAP ver.5(1997), IEA Target Year: 2100 Target Region: 18 regions Target Sector: 13 sectors Energy depletion, electricity mix Non-CO2 gas abatement (Land use: use SRES/B2(AIM) scenario)

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1 ANZ Australia/NZ 10 OWE Other Western Europe 2 JPN Japan 11 EEU Eastern Europe 3 KOR Korea, Rep. 12 FSU FSU 4 CHN China 13 OPE OPEC 5 IND India 14 MEX Mexico 6 SEA South & SE Asia 15 BRA Brazil 7 USA USA 16 LAM Latin America 8 CAN Canada 17 AFR Africa 9 WEU Western Europe 18 ROW Rest of the World 1 GAS Natural gas works 8 FRS Forestry 2 ELE Electricity and heat 9 FSH Fishing 3 OIL Refined oil products 10 EII Energy Intensive Industry 4 COL Coal transformation 11 OIN Other Industry 5 CRU Crude oil 12 T_T Transport 6 AGR Agriculture 13 SER Service 7 LVK Livestock

Regions Regions Sectors Sectors

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Structure of AIM/CGE(Asia) model

Fuels Electricity Non-energy goods Government Household

multi-gas emission right rent primary factors investment input input consumption consumption input input input

Production Sectors

CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2

Energy resource depletion Electricity mix non- CO2 non- CO2 non- CO2 non- CO2 non- CO2

MAC MAC MAC MAC MAC

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Fuels Electricity Non-energy goods Government Household

multi-gas emission right r e n t primary factors investment input input consumption consumption input input input

Production Sectors

CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2

Energy resource depletion Electricity mix non- CO2 non- CO2 non- CO2 non- CO2 non- CO2

MAC MAC MAC MAC MAC

2100

Fuels Electricity Non-energy goods Government Household

multi-gas emission right rent primary factors investment input input consumption consumption input input input

Production Sectors

CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2

Energy resource depletion Electricity mix non- CO2 non- CO2 non- CO2 non- CO2 non- CO2

MAC MAC MAC MAC MAC

2030…

Fuels Electricity Non-energy goods Government Household

multi-gas emission right rent primary factors investment input input consumption consumption input input input

Production Sectors

CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2

Energy resource depletion Electricity mix non- CO2 non- CO2 non- CO2 non- CO2 non- CO2

MAC MAC MAC MAC MAC

2020 2010

Fuels Electricity Non-energy goods Government Household

multi-gas emission right rent primary factors investment input input consumption consumption input input input

Production Sectors

CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2

Energy resource depletion Electricity mix non- CO2 non- CO2 non- CO2 non- CO2 non- CO2

MAC MAC MAC MAC MAC

Temperature raise constraint and dynamic Temperature raise constraint and dynamic recursive model recursive model

Simple Climate Model Based on Joos model (AIM/SSG)

GHG emissions Emission path to satisfy stabilization target Other gases: SOx, NOx BB+FF

2000

Fuels Electricity Non-energy goods Government Household

multi-gas emission right rent primary factors investment input input consumption consumption input input input

Production Sectors

CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2

Energy resource depletion Electricity mix non- CO2 non- CO2 non- CO2 non- CO2 non- CO2

MAC MAC MAC MAC MAC

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2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Anthropogenic GHG emissions (GtC-eq/yr) CO2 CH4 N2O CO2(BaU) CH4(BaU) N2O(BaU) 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Anthropogenic GHG emissions (GtC-eq/yr) CO2 CH4 N2O CO2(BaU) CH4(BaU) N2O(BaU) 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Anthropogenic GHG emissions (GtC-eq/yr) CO2 CH4 N2O

Anthropogenic GHG Anthropogenic GHG emissions emissions

BaU CO2 only multi gas

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GDP impact and Carbon Price GDP impact and Carbon Price

2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 GDP (10bil.1997US$) BaU CO2 only multi gas 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Carbon Price (1997US$ per ton-C) BaU CO2 only multi gas

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Impact of Japan/Korea FTA

  • Simulation cases
  • BaU case: the present condition case
  • FTA case: no tariff between Japan and Korea
  • FTA
  • abolition of tariff (considered)
  • versea investment (not considered)
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Region

code description 1 JPN Japan 2 KOR Korea - Republic of 3 CHN China 4 AS7 ASEAN7 5 IND India 6 ANZ Australia+New Zealand 7 CAN Canada 8 USA United States 9 WEU Western Europe 10 REF Economic Reform 11 ROW Rest of the World

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Sector

code Description code description 1 GAS Natural gas 14 PPP Paper-pulp-print 2 ELY Electricity 15 OMN Mining 3 OIL Refined oil products 16 NFM Non-ferrous metals 4 COL Coal 17 TRN Transport equipment 5 CRU Crude oil 18 ELE Electronic equipment 6 AGR Agriculture 19 OME Other machinery 7 LVK Livestock 20 CNS Construction 8 FPR Food products 21 TWL Textiles-wearing apparel-leather 9 FRS Forestry 22 OMF Other manufacturing 10 FSH Fishing 23 T_T Transport 11 I_S Iron and steel industry 24 SER Commercial and public services 12 CRP Chemical industry 25 DWE Dwellings 13 NMM Mineral products 26 CGD Capital goods demand

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Output, Export, Tariff rate by sector of Japan and Korea in 1997(10bil.US$)

Output (10Bil$) Export (10Bil$) Tariff (%) JPN KOR jpn->kor kor->jpn jpn->kor kor->jpn GAS 0.09 0.00 ELY 16.79 1.79 OIL 5.98 2.24 0.01 0.14 7.0% 3.0% COL 0.02 0.01 0.00 7.0% 3.0% CRU 0.01 0.00 I_S 17.16 4.01 0.22 0.14 CRP 30.65 6.37 0.39 0.13 8.0% 3.0% NMM 8.12 1.74 0.09 0.03 7.0% 1.0% PPP 15.87 2.06 0.02 0.01 6.0% 2.0% OMN 1.20 0.33 0.00 0.00 3.0% AGR 7.14 2.22 0.00 0.01 74.4% 38.0% LVK 2.22 0.67 0.00 0.00 10.2% 5.0% FPR 33.40 5.08 0.02 0.12 44.5% 41.8% FRS 3.95 0.48 0.00 0.01 7.8% 1.1% FSH 1.85 0.42 0.00 0.03 12.0% 7.0% NFM 5.06 1.07 0.06 0.05 7.0% 1.0% TRN 35.69 5.85 0.07 0.01 7.2% ELE 42.24 5.48 0.52 0.33 8.0% OME 46.11 9.38 1.07 0.20 8.0% 0.2% CNS 74.08 8.79 TWL 10.49 4.11 0.06 0.16 7.9% 11.3% OMF 9.97 1.00 0.03 0.03 7.0% 3.0% T_T 40.80 3.08 0.10 0.05 SER 295.84 29.48 0.04 0.05 0.2% DWE 47.68 2.43 Total 752.40 98.07 2.71 1.51 7.2% 5.7%

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Output in 2010 (10Bil$)

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 GAS ELY OIL COL CRU I_S CRP NMM PPP OMN AGR LVK FPR FRS FSH NFM TRN ELE OME CNS TWL OMF T_T SER DWE Output (10Bil. US$)

  • 8.00%
  • 6.00%
  • 4.00%
  • 2.00%

0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% Difference between BAU and FTA (%) BAU JPN FTA JPN FTA/BAU JPN 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 GAS ELY OIL COL CRU I_S CRP NMM PPP OMN AGR LVK FPR FRS FSH NFM TRN ELE OME CNS TWL OMF T_T SER DWE Output (10Bil. US$)

  • 8.00%
  • 6.00%
  • 4.00%
  • 2.00%

0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% Difference between BAU and FTA (%) BAU KOR FTA KOR FTA/BAU KOR

JPN KOR

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2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 GAS ELY OIL COL CRU I_S CRP NMM PPP OMN AGR LVK FPR FRS FSH NFM TRN ELE OME CNS TWL OMF T_T SER DWE Total Export (10Bil.US$)

  • 10%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Difference between BAU and FTA (%) BAU JPN FTA JPN FTA/BAU JPN 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 GAS ELY OIL COL CRU I_S CRP NMM PPP OMN AGR LVK FPR FRS FSH NFM TRN ELE OME CNS TWL OMF T_T SER DWE Total Export (10Bil.US$)

  • 20%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 180% Difference between BAU and FTA (%) BAU KOR FTA KOR FTA/BAU KOR

Export between JPN/KOR in 2010 (10Bil$)

JPN KOR

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2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 GAS ELY OIL COL CRU I_S CRP NMM PPP OMN AGR LVK FPR FRS FSH NFM TRN ELE OME CNS TWL OMF T_T SER DWE CGD Total Import (10Bil.US$)

  • 1%

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% Difference between BAU and FTA (%) BAU JPN FTA JPN FTA/BAU JPN 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 GAS ELY OIL COL CRU I_S CRP NMM PPP OMN AGR LVK FPR FRS FSH NFM TRN ELE OME CNS TWL OMF T_T SER DWE Total Import (10Bil.US$)

  • 2%
  • 1%

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% Difference between BAU and FTA (%) BAU KOR FTA KOR FTA/BAU KOR

Import between JPN/KOR in 2010 (10Bil$)

JPN KOR

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Country CGE model and Global CGE model

Global CGE model Japan CGE model China CGE model Thailand CGE model India CGE model Other CGE model C->G: Detailed economic activity G->C: Import/export scenario