AIM/ CGE: Thailand AIM/ CGE: Thailand Aunkung Lim and Sunil Malla - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

AIM/ CGE: Thailand AIM/ CGE: Thailand

Aunkung Lim and Sunil Malla

Asian I nstitute of Technology Pathumthani, Thailand APEI S Training Workshop, NI ES-Tsukuba Nov 11, 2005

2

Presentation outline Presentation outline

PART A Brief background of Thailand

Energy Economy Environment

PART B AIM/CGE Thailand

General information of the model Analysis of the benchmark year (STATIC) Analysis of future years (DYNAMIC)

PART C Future direction

3

PART A

4

I ntroduction I ntroduction

Rising demand of fuel, especially in transport sector Diesel demand would be increased to 85 million litres/ day by 2012 541,000 million Baht (13.5 billion USD) of oil import in 2004, (14.1% of all commodity import) Dependency on imported energy (in % of primary energy supply) increases from 52% in 2000 to 57% in 2004

5

Thailand's Position Thailand's Position

Convention

• Thailand Signed the UNFCCC in June

1992 at UNCED and Ratified the UNFCCC in December 1994; and

Kyoto Protocol

• Thailand signed the Kyoto Protocol in

February 1999 and Ratified on 28 August 2002.

6

Energy Energy-

• Environment Context:

Environment Context: Thailand (2004) Thailand (2004)

• Population: 64 Millions
• GDP: 163.5 Billion USD; 6.2%
• Total Primary Energy Supply: 98 million toe; 6.06%
• Final Energy Consumption: 61 million toe; 8.51%
• Energy related CO2 emissions: 180.68 million tons; 5.43%
• Energy Intensity: 15.56 toe/ million Baht1988 price

(2.1% from 2003)

• CO2 Intensity: 128.59 t-CO2/million Baht1988 price

(1.61% from 2003)

7

CO2 emissions during 1980-2000

• CO2 emissions in 2000 compared to 1980

– Over 2 times in China and Developing Asian countries – Over 4 times in Thailand and Indonesia – Less than 1.5 times in OECD countries

Sources: IEA (2002), Energy statistics and balances

1 2 3 4 5 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 CO2 Emission Index (1979=1.00) China India Indonesia Sri Lanka Thailand Vietnam Asia OECD World

8

CO2 Emissions Intensity (CO2 per GDPMER)

0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 Emissions I ntensity (I ndex: 1971=1)

I ndia I ndonesia Japan Korea Thailand Vietnam OECD Total Asia ( excluding China) China

CO2 emissions intensity has been increasing in Thailand after 1990.

9

Thai GDP and Electricity Consumption

0.0 500.0 1000.0 1500.0 2000.0 2500.0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year Electricity/cap, KWh/cap 0.000 0.500 1.000 1.500 Electricity/GDP, kWh/$ GDP(1988 US$)/cap Electricity(kWh)/cap Electricity(kWh)/GDP(US$)

Energy consumption has grown to 5 folds from 1980s. Energy efficiency has not improved, but worsens since 1997.

• Significant energy efficiency improvement has not been
• bserved despite implementation of many programs.

10

Climate Change Management

• 1. GHGs emission reduction without negative impact on

development

1.1 GHGs reduction from Sources Renewable energy, Transport, EE, and Waste Management 1.2 Carbon sink Later, Not now !!

• 2. Capacity Building, Public Awareness and Public Participation

Mainly on human resources CC promotion through academic curriculum

• 3. Structural Strengthening and Legal Amendment
• 4. Research and Development on Climate Change to be

the foundation for impact mitigation and adaptation

11

Thailand Energy Strategies

• The high elasticity of energy consumption growth to

growth in GDP of 1.4 to 1 has prompted the government to set a target of reducing this elasticity to 1:1 and set 4 strategies on energy: 1. improvement on efficiency of energy utilization, 2. utilization of renewable energy to increase to 8%, 3. improvement of energy security by ensuring that sufficient reserves are maintained, and 4. to turn Thailand into an energy trading hub.

12

Thailand Energy Strategies and potential contribution from Research

Strategy Research Topics

• 1. E. Efficiency

Energy conservation for industry, commercial and residential buildings

• 2. Renewable

Energy

Development of renewable energy technologies, and their applications

• 3. Energy

Security

ASEAN Power Grid and Gas Grid. Energy substitution

• 4. Energy Hub

Creation of energy markets. Trading of electric power in GMS and ASEAN.

13

Electricity Generation Efficiency Gaps - Gas

Electricity generation efficiency gap for Gas in 1999

0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00 40.00 45.00 50.00

I n d i a B a n g l a d e s h P a k i s t a n A s i a T h a i l a n d V i e t n a m C h i n a M a l a y s i a O E C D I n d

• n

e s i a J a p a n

%

Data source: IEA, 2002 Best Practice efficiency

• Eff. gap

14

Collaborating Institutions (Research) Within Asia and the Pacific

CHINA: CRED, CRED, ERI, CESTT ERI, CESTT CAMBODIA CAMBODIA: ITC, MIME ITC, MIME BANGLADESH BANGLADESH: BIT, GS BIT, GS INDIA INDIA: IISc IISc, IIT, CEA, , IIT, CEA, IGIDR, PSG IGIDR, PSG INDONESIA INDONESIA: CU, CU, ITB ITB JAPAN JAPAN LAOS LAOS: STEA STEA MALAYSIA MALAYSIA: FRI FRI NEPAL NEPAL: CRE, RECAST, CRE, RECAST, RONAST RONAST PHILIPPINES PHILIPPINES: UP, UP, ITDI ITDI, SATMP , SATMP SRI LANKA SRI LANKA: UM, UM, SLEMA, CEB, ISB SLEMA, CEB, ISB THAILAND THAILAND: EPPO, DEDE, SIIT EPPO, DEDE, SIIT VIETNAM VIETNAM: IE, NEDCEN, IE, NEDCEN, DOSTE, SOLARLAB DOSTE, SOLARLAB

15

16

PART B

• 1. General Information of Thai Model
• 1. General Information of Thai Model

Benchmark year: 2000 Time horizon: 30 years (2000 to 2030) The 2000 IO table is published by the NESDB CO2 emissions

1.1 Data Preparation 1.1 Data Preparation 1.2 Sector/Commodity Classification 1.2 Sector/Commodity Classification 1.3 GDP Discrepancy 1.3 GDP Discrepancy 1.4 1.4 Sectoral Sectoral Structure of the Thai economy Structure of the Thai economy

1.1 Data Preparation 1.1 Data Preparation

Step 1: The original IO (180x180)

Aggregated to 29x29 Aggregated to 23x23

Step 2: Disaggregation of energy

sector/commodity

Petroleum products sector into 6

commodities

Electricity commodity into 5 sectors

Step 3: AIM/CGE data set

Static part (U, V, ENE, ER) Dynamic part (FCF, GR_E_I, GR_L_I,

INT_PRI, Growth)

1.2 Sector/Commodity Classification 1.2 Sector/Commodity Classification

23 Sectors/ commodities 23 Sectors/ commodities

1 Agriculture, livestock, forestry, fishery 19 Commercials 2 Mining coal, lignite 20 Land transport 3 Crude petroleum 21 Water transport 4 Mining NG 22 Air transport 5 Other mining 23 Others 6 Food, beverage, tobacco

11 Energy types

7 Textile and woods 9A Gasoline 8 Paper and printings 9B Diesel 10 Chemical, phrama 9C Jet fuel 11 Manu rubber, plastic 9D Fuel oil 12 Manu non-metallic 9E LPG 13 Metals, metal products 9F Kerosene 14 Computer, machinery 17A Electricity by hydro 15 Motor vehicle, equipment 17B Electricity by oils 16 Other manus 17C Electricity by coal and lignite 18 Construction 17D Electricity by natural gas 17E Electricity by renewables

1.3 GDP Discrepancy 1.3 GDP Discrepancy

Domestic Product (Millions of Baht) 2000 Net Domestic Product at Factor Cost 3,712,111 Provision for Consumption of Fixed Capital 728,308 Indirect Taxes 505,778 Less : Subsidies 23,466 Gross Domestic Product at Market Prices 4,922,731 Private Consumption Expenditure 2,762,925 General Government Consumption Expenditu 557,807 Gross Domestic Fixed Capital Formation 1,081,420 Change in Inventories 42,744 Exports of Goods and Services 3,287,284 Less : Imports of Goods and Services 2,862,305 Statistical Discrepancy 52,856 Expenditure on Gross Domestic Product 4,922,731

Item AgricultureOthers Total interm A_CON A_INV A_STK A_EXP A_IMP Agriculture 55895 11534 655430 236523 836 (13034) 37276 (59132) Air transport 929 4509 70809 21914 48065 (16069) Others 4160 59072 223359 364389 87639 (79863) Total intermed 454389 346881 8151972 3169621 1255021 25879 3245813 (2871184) wage salary 103204 504474 1609453 GDP from product approach 5220865

• perating surplu 269904

134591 2493198 depreciation 29682 83481 734076 indirec taxes 413 16911 384138 Total VA 403203 739457 5220865 GDP from earning approach

Difference by 6.1 %

1.4 1.4 Sectoral Sectoral Structure of the Thai economy Structure of the Thai economy (1996 (1996-

• 2003)

2003)

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003p % share

Agriculture Mining and Quarrying Manufacturing Electricity, Gas and Water Supply Construction Services

• 2. Analysis of Benchmark Year 2000 (Static)
• 2. Analysis of Benchmark Year 2000 (Static)

2.1 Features of economic activity

7.72 5.18 94.82 92.28

• 20.00

40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 PROD CON Energy Non-energy

%

• 2. Analysis of Benchmark Year 2000 (Static)
• 2. Analysis of Benchmark Year 2000 (Static)

2.2 Features of economic activity - energy sector

23.36 13.77 51.45 57.11 25.20 29.12

• 20.00

40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 PROD CON Coal Petro Electricity

%

• 2. Analysis of Benchmark Year 2000 (static)
• 2. Analysis of Benchmark Year 2000 (static)

2.3 Features of the environment

0.05 0.95 4.23 3.79 0.49 2.23 2.15 6.62 0.00

• 1.00

2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00

Coal lignite Crude petro Mining NG Petroluem products Electricity by hydro Eectricity by

• ils

Electricity by coal and lignite Electricity by natural gas Electricity by renewables Energy Sector

• 3. Analysis of Future Years (Dynamic)
• 3. Analysis of Future Years (Dynamic)

3.1 Simulated GDP vs Expected GDP (Index 2000 = 1)

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 2 6 2 7 2 8 2 9 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 3 2 1 4 2 1 5 2 1 6 2 1 7 2 1 8 2 1 9 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 4 2 2 5 2 2 6 2 2 7 2 2 8 2 2 9 2 3 Sim ulated GDP Expected_GDP Max Difference 28% Difference 23% Gradually increase in difference by11.8% % Change

• 3. Analysis of Future Years (Dynamic)
• 3. Analysis of Future Years (Dynamic)

3.2 GDP Components: Consumption, Investment, Net export

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 12.0 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 2 6 2 7 2 8 2 9 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 3 2 1 4 2 1 5 2 1 6 2 1 7 2 1 8 2 1 9 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 4 2 2 5 2 2 6 2 2 7 2 2 8 2 2 9 2 3 CON INV NET EX Starting Domestic Dissaving This show s positive net export economy in future year

• 3. Analysis of Future Years
• 3. Analysis of Future Years

3.3 CO2, GDP and CO2 intensity [Index (2000=1)]

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

CO2 emissions GDP CO2 intensity

PART C

• 4. Proposal of scenario and policy
• 4. Proposal of scenario and policy

to protect environment to protect environment

Technology and Institutions

• Energy efficiency improvement
• Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS)
• Carbon and energy taxes
• CO2 emissions co-benefits (SO2 and NOx)
• Domestic S emission trading among utilities and

industries Management

• Waste management
• Preference change

5.Impact on environment and economy 5.Impact on environment and economy Post-Kyoto and beyond vision

“GHGs emission reduction without negative impact

• n economic development”

Using AIM family of models to analyze issues related:

• How much CO2 and other air pollutant emissions can be reduced

through energy efficiency improvement?

• What is the role of renewable energy sources (wind, solar,

hydro)?

• What would be impact on economy and how much improvement
• n environment could be achieved if we introduce carbon/energy

taxes?

• Potential of CDM projects related to energy?

• 6. Policy for treating environment problems
• 6. Policy for treating environment problems
• Energy related air pollutants (both GHGs and local

air pollutants)

• Waste management
• Water pollution

Thank you