Overall of Low Carbon Society Overall of Low Carbon Society toward - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

National Institute for Environmental Studies National Institute for Environmental Studies

Mikiko Kainuma Mikiko Kainuma

The 10th AIM International Workshop The 10th AIM International Workshop 10 10-

• 12 March 2005

12 March 2005 NIES, Tsukuba, Japan NIES, Tsukuba, Japan

Session IX Low Carbon Society toward 2050 Project Session IX Low Carbon Society toward 2050 Project

Overall of Low Carbon Society Overall of Low Carbon Society toward 2050 Project toward 2050 Project

Japanese climate policy scenarios toward 2050

Background:

• UK, Germany, France, Sweden,,,,: Long term climate strategies, reducing GHGs

drastically toward 2050. Are those the paths we should follow?

• In UNFCCC and Japan: Beyond Kyoto Issue started. Quantitative base required.

Goal:

• To explore the possible paths to low carbon society in Japan toward 2050.
• Major output: GHG emission scenarios
• Various related research works.
• How should we set policy target? (stabilization target, international

burden sharing, sustainable development,,)

• What technological and societal changes need to be introduced and how?

(Options, Policy and Measures)

• What implications these scenarios pose to future Japanese economy and

society? (Evaluation of policies)

EE Improvement New tech application New Urban structure Eco awareness Smooth mobility Industry efficiency Low-CO2 emission car Next generation car New traffic system

Study Japanese options toward climate sustainability

1990 2000 2020 2050 2010 BaU scenario Intervention scenario

EE improvement New energy Energy saving Structure change Life-style change

• Tech. innovation

Urban structure IT-society

Techno-socio Innovation Study GHG reduction target

（eg. 50-80% reduction by 1990 level） Evaluate rationality and process of GHG reduction target

Reduction Target study Long-term Scenario Development Study

Develop socio- economic scenario, evaluate counter- measures using econ-techno models

Propose the direction of long-term global warming policy

GHG emission

Japanese climate policy scenarios toward 2050 Japanese climate policy scenarios toward 2050

Middle-term Target year Loge-term Target year Traffic system

• 1

1 3 5 Valid Equity Suitable Effective

Advisory board：advice to project

AIM/Material

• Analyzing stabilization

path

• Burden sharing,

flexibility

• Change of trade

scheme like ＦＴＡ

AIM/Impact[Policy]

• Threshold of Climate Change
• Stabilization path and impacts
• Burden sharing

Permanent production sector

AIM/CGE[global]

Adhoc production/ Istituteion sector

Demand related to energy, urban, transportation, etc Quantitative targets

• f Socio-economic

indicators

E D B Environmental option DataBase AIM/Enduse

• Adjustment of social and

economical scenario

• Including industry structure

change and tech. innovation

• Impact of GHG reduction

policy (constraint, tax, etc)

• Quantitative analysis of

countermeasures

• Database of countermeasures
• Interface with each sector

Household model

Countermeasures in each sector 2 Database Development 3 Design of Low Carbon Society Scenarios

AIM models for 2050 scenarios

Scenario Team 1 BaU scenarios

Change rate of carbon intensity (%/year) Change rate of energy intensity (%/year)

(Source: Kawase et al. 2005)

–3 –2 –1 –3 –2 –1

Japan(1990–2000) France Germany UK 1960-2000 1960-2000 1960-2000

5 % r e d u c t i

• n

6 % r e d u c t i

• n

7 % r e d u c t i

• n

8 % r e d u c t i

• n

9 % r e d u c t i

• n

Switchover B2 Revival Saving energy Combine option (1990–2000) (1990–2000) (1990–2000)

Change rates of energy/carbon intensity

Historical change rates for the past 40 years, and projections, are connected with change rates in the

• 1990s. Dashed lines,

having a lope of -1, represent positions in which a 50-90% reduction is achieved over 50 years with 1% GDP growth.

Change in carbon intensity with CCS Change in carbon intensity excluding carbon capture and storage (CCS)

Urban System Change Urban System Change Industry Structure Change Industry Structure Change I Information Technology nformation Technology Renewable energy Renewable energy Consumption Behavior Consumption Behavior

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

reference case reference case CO2 emissions [MtC]

Path toward Low Carbon Society

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

policy case policy case Energy Saving devices Energy Saving devices Energy Supply change Energy Supply change 年 low carbon case low carbon case

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

↓60% reduction ↓80% reduction ↓40% reduction Masui:AIM20005

Year