Low carbon society in contrast to a society with mass consumption of - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Low carbon society in contrast to a society with mass consumption of energy and resources (Updated version) Yuichi Moriguchi

Team Leader, Transport Subproject, JLCS2050

Director, Research Centre for Material Cycles and Waste Management, NIES

Visiting Professor, Graduate School of Frontier Sciences, The University of Tokyo Chair, OECD/EPOC/WG on Environmental Information and Outlooks Inaugural member, International Panel for Sustainable Resource Management

The 3rd Workshop of Japan-UK Joint Research Project "Roadmap to Low-Carbon World'' 13th-15th February, 2008,Hotel Metropolitan Edmont, Iidabashi, Tokyo

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Contents

1. Decoupling and Recoupling of GDP and CO2 2. Analyzing Carbon-footprint of household consumption 3. Behavior in transport activities: Cars vs. Public transits 4. Purchasing decision of consumer durables: cost payback time vs. CO2 payback time 5. Win-win strategy between LCS and SMCS (Sound Material-Cycle Society)

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Other 0% Waste 3% Energy Industries 32% Industrial Processes 4% Manufacturing Industries and Construction 29% Transport 19% Commercial & Others 8% Residential 5%

Total CO2 emissions 2005

Railway Maritime Aviation Motor vehicle

Share of CO2 emissions by sector in Japan

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Trends of GDP and CO2 emissions by sector

50 100 150 200 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

GDP Total Energy Industory Industrial Commercial & Residential Transport

GDP

E m is s io n In de x de n o m in ate d by 1 9 7 3 le ve l

Trends of GDP and CO2 emissions by sector

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Contents

1. Decoupling and Recoupling of GDP and CO2 2. Analyzing Carbon-footprint of household consumption 3. Behavior in transport activities: Cars vs. Public transits 4. Purchasing decision of consumer durables: cost payback time vs. CO2 payback time 5. Win-win strategy between LCS and SMCS (Sound Material-Cycle Society)

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Japanese CO2 emissions structure from the viewpoint

• f final demand (1975-2000) by I-O analysis

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

CO2 emissions (Mt-CO2/y)

Other exports Electric Machinery Transport machinery Transport Iron&Steel Stock change Other private capital Machinery Construction Other public capital Construction Other government consumption Education, medical & welfare service Government Service Other household expenditure Transport Retail trade Education, medical & welfare service Service Food Electricity consumption Fuel consumption Non Household Expenditure

Change of the sector classification

House. Cons. Gov. Cons . Fixed Cap. (pri.) Exports (pub.)

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50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 100 200 300 400 500 600 Annual average expenditure at a household in Japan (10000 yen/year)

CO2 emissions per unit expenditure (kg-CO2/10000 yen)

<Note>

• 1. Y-axis value is based on the consumers' price basis.
• 2. The value includes emissions relating to imports, assuming they

have the same emissions as the domestic products.

• 3. The value includes not only emissions directly from a household

but also ones for supplying goods and services that the household purchases.

Foods Fablic prod. Electrical machinery Transportation machinery Electricity Mains gas Gasoline Petroleum and coal products (exc. gasoline) Transportation Water and sewerage Comunication and broadcast Education, medical care and welfare Services Others

• K. Nansai and Y. Moriguchi (2007), NIES, Japan

Relationship between CO2 intensities and expenditures of households in Japan

2.6% 0.9% 1.2% 3.4% 3.2% 3.4% 2.8% 6.4% 9.7% 14.1% 15.1% 13.2% 11.9% 12.0%

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Contents

1. Decoupling and Recoupling of GDP and CO2 2. Analyzing Carbon-footprint of household consumption 3. Behavior in transport activities: Cars vs. Public transits 4. Purchasing decision of consumer durables: cost payback time vs. CO2 payback time 5. Win-win strategy between LCS and SMCS (Sound Material-Cycle Society)

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Size of passenger cars had been getting larger and caused larger CO2 emissions since tax reform in 1989

Tax system change: abolition of the commodity tax adoption of the consumption tax

10 20 30 40 50 60 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Light passenger cars Small passenger cars Regular size passenger Number of car possesions (Million)

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 1990 1995 2000 Gasoline light passenger cars Gasoline -2,000cc Diesel & rotary engine etc. Gasoline 2,001cc- CO2 emission[Mt-CO2]

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Combination of countermeasures which reduce 20% each could account for over 70% reduction as total

Demand management e.g. by information- communication technology [transport-service per capita] Improve accessibility [passenger-km or ton-km per transport-service] Modal shift to reduce CO2 EF per passenger-km or ton-km Improve load factor [vehicle-km per Pkm(Tkm)] Improve fuel economy [Fuel consumption per vehicle-km] Introduce low carbon energy [CO2 emission factor per fuel consumption]

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⎟ ⎟ ⎠ ⎞ ⎜ ⎜ ⎝ ⎛ × × × × =

Mode

Fuel EF Vkm Fuel Tkm Pkm Vkm TransServ Tkm km P capita TransServ capita

2 2

CO ) ( ) ( CO

(1-0.2)x(1-0.2)x(1-0.2)x(1-0.2)x(1-0.2)x(1-0.2)=0.26

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0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000

Estimated regional automotive CO2 emissions

Each Area is categorized in

• 1. Major cities
• 2. Cities with a pop of 0.5 million and above
• 3. Cities with a pop of 0.3 and above
• 4. Cities with a pop of 0.1 and above
• 5. Cities with a pop less than 0.1 million
• 6. Counties

Accumulated population [million]

CO2 per capita [t/year]

Tokyo Met. Osaka Met. Nagoya Met. Other Areas

Passenger car emissions (t-CO2/capita) Freight vehicles Passenger cars

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Picture of EST1 (High tech.)

Popularization of FCEVs Construction of H2 Supplying Station Utilization of Biomass Energy Wind-generated Electricity More Energy Efficient Mode

Example of vision: prepared for OECD/EST in Nagoya(2003) Example of vision: prepared for OECD/EST in Nagoya(2003)

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Picture of EST2 (Mobility change)

Higher Loading Rate Increase in Car Occupancy Utilization of Telecommunication Tools Shifting to Railways Shifting to Bicycle and Walking

Example of vision: prepared for OECD/EST in Nagoya(2003) Example of vision: prepared for OECD/EST in Nagoya(2003)

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Picture of EST3 (Combination)

Popularization of FCEVs More Energy Efficient Mode Utilization of Biomass Energy Utilization of Telecommunication Tools Shifting to Bicycle and Walking Shifting to Railways Wind-generated Electricity

Example of vision: prepared for OECD/EST in Nagoya(2003) Example of vision: prepared for OECD/EST in Nagoya(2003)

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Contents

1. Decoupling and Recoupling of GDP and CO2 2. Analyzing Carbon-footprint of household consumption 3. Behavior in transport activities: Cars vs. Public transits 4. Purchasing decision of consumer durables: cost payback time vs. CO2 payback time 5. Win-win strategy between LCS and SMCS (Sound Material-Cycle Society)

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Purchasing decision of consumer durables

• Consumer durables such as cars, air conditioners, refrigerators,

TV’s and other electric equipment have significant impact on household energy consumption.

• Replacement to up-to-date efficient models is often encouraged, but

we have to keep in mind that shorter lifetime of durables lead to excessive consumption of material resources and indirect energy consumption and CO2 emissions.

• Payback time in terms of cost, energy, and CO2 should be carefully

examined for typical consumer durables.

• Reliable information with regard to cost payback time and CO2

payback time of expensive mitigating technologies such as photovoltaic should be disseminated to consumers to guide their investment decision.

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50 75 100 125 150 175 200 200 400 600 800 Additional initial investment in 1,000JPY 3 years 5 years 7 years 10 years

Gasoline price（JPY/l）

(10,000km/year, 11.7km/l for conventional 20.3km/l for HEV)

Cost payback time of Hybrid Vehicle

1 Euro / l 2000 Euros

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Contents

1. Decoupling and Recoupling of GDP and CO2 2. Analyzing Carbon-footprint of household consumption 3. Behavior in transport activities: Cars vs. Public transits 4. Purchasing decision of consumer durables: cost payback time vs. CO2 payback time 5. Win-win strategy between LCS and SMCS (Sound Material-Cycle Society)

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Massive flow of materials

Resources Wastes Consumer products Infrastructure

as source of resources as sink of residuals The global environment is finite

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Transition of socio-economic structure towards more sustainable consumption and production One-way Recycling-based Cycle-oriented Sound material-cycle

循環型社会 “Junkan” 大量生産・大量消費・ 大量廃棄型社会

Mass-production, mass-consumption, mass-disposal society Sound material cycle society (SMCS)

Saving resources Reducing burdens

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Types of possible behavioral changes

• Day-to-day energy saving actions
• Purchasing choice of daily necessaries
• Transport modal choice
• Purchasing choice of consumer durables to

minimize lifecycle carbon emissions

• Residence and workplace choices

Direct, Short term, Individual Indirect, Long term, Societal + Cultural aspect: e.g. Japanese spirit of “Mottainai” “Don’t waste what is valuable.”