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Project Progress of AIM/China: Emission Model ERI AIM Project team - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Project Progress of AIM/China: Emission Model ERI AIM Project team - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Project Progress of AIM/China: Emission Model ERI AIM Project team Prepared for 5th AIM Workshop March 24th to 26th, 2000, NIES, Tsukuba Content AIM/End-use of China: extension of target year to 2030 Beijing Study Recent Progress of
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Recent Progress of AIM-China Extend target year from 2010 to 2030 Newly added technologies Energy service scenarios Revised parameters according to recent change in China
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Sectors in AIM/End use of China
Sector Sub-Sector Simulation for 2010 Simulation for 2030 Agriculture v OOO Iron and Steel v v Copper v v Aluminum v v Zinc&Lead v v Cement v v Glass v v Brick v v Lime v v Ammonia v v Ethylene v v Soda Ash v v Caustic Soda v v Fertilizer v OOO Calcium v OOO Paper Making v v Textile v OOO Casting v OOO Heat Treatment v OOO Forging v OOO Cutting v OOO Industry Other Industry v OOO Energy Conversion Power Generation v OOO Refinery v OOO Transport v v Commercial Sector v v Residential Sector Urban Resident v v Rural Resident v v
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New technologies: examples Transport: Natural gas car Natural gas bus Resident: Water heater by solar energy Natural gas heating system
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C O 2 em i ssi ons i n A gr i cul t ur e sect or
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Y ear M t - C
Fr ozen M ar ket Pol i cy
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C O 2 em i ssi ons i n t ext i l e i ndust r y
20 40 60 80 100 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Y ear M t - C
Fr ozen M ar ket Pol i cy
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C O 2 em i ssi on i n m achi ner y sect or
20 40 60 80 100 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Y ear Mt-C
Fr ozen M ar ket Pol i cy
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C O 2 em i ssi on by cases
500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Year Million Tons-C
Technol ogy Fr ozen M ar ket Pol i cy
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C O 2 em i ssi on by sect or i n 2030
500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Industry Transport Commercial Urban Resident Rural Resident
sect or Million ton-C
Technol ogy Fr ozen M ar ket Pol i cy
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E ner gy D em and S cenar i os
500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Technol ogy Fr ozen M ar ket P
- l i cy
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Beijing Study: Framework Base year: 1998 Energy: N.gas, Coal, Electricity, Gasoline, Diesel, Fuel Oil, LPG Energy supply constraint Energy price: differ among sectors Gases: CO2, SO2, NOx, TSP Desulphurization technologies will be considered in a simple way
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Sectors for Beijing Project
Sectors Subsectors Urban Resident Rural Public passenger transport: bus Public passenger transport: city railway (including subway) Public passenger transport: Taxi Private car Railway Transport Freight transport Office building&Hotel Restaurant Service Others Industrial sectors Steel making Petroleum Processing Chemical products Nonmetal Mineral Products Food and Beverage Production Textile Machinery Electricity, steam and hot water production and supply Others
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Map of Beijing
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GNP in Beijing, 1978=100
100 200 300 400 500 600 700
1 9 7 8 1 9 8 1 9 8 2 1 9 8 4 1 9 8 6 1 9 8 8 1 9 9 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 8
Y e a r
index
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GDP Mix in Beijing
% 2 % 4 % 6 % 8 % 1 %
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998
Year %
T e r t i a r y S e c
- n
d a r y P r e m a r y
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Population in Beijing
200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998
Y e a r 1 p e r s
- n
s
A gr i cul t ur e N
- n- A
gr i cul t ur e
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Energy use in 1998 Energy use by sectors, Beijing 1998
96.2 2543.5 818.6 303.2 151.8
Primary Industry Secondary Industry Tertiary Industry Urban Rural
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GDP scenario for Beijing
500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 1998 2010 2020 2030 Year Billion Yuan Tertiary Secondary Primary
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Population scenario in Beijing
5 10 15 1998 2010 2020 2030 Year million
Non-Agriculture Agriculture
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C ases D escription Technology frozen A IM /C hina M arket A IM /C hina Policy A IM /C hina Environm ent Target C
- unterm
easures by governm ent G reen D evelopm ent L
- cal environm
ent policies
Cases defined
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