Project Progress of AIM/China: Emission Model ERI AIM Project team - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Project Progress of AIM/China: Emission Model ERI AIM Project team Prepared for 5th AIM Workshop March 24th to 26th, 2000, NIES, Tsukuba

Content AIM/End-use of China: extension of target year to 2030 Beijing Study

Recent Progress of AIM-China � Extend target year from 2010 to 2030 � Newly added technologies � Energy service scenarios � Revised parameters according to recent change in China

Sectors in AIM/End use of China Sector Sub-Sector Simulation for 2010 Simulation for 2030 Agriculture OOO v Industry Iron and Steel v v Copper v v Aluminum v v Zinc&Lead v v Cement v v Glass v v Brick v v Lime v v Ammonia v v Ethylene v v Soda Ash v v Caustic Soda v v Fertilizer OOO v Calcium OOO v Paper Making v v Textile OOO v Casting v OOO Heat Treatment v OOO Forging v OOO Cutting OOO v Other Industry OOO v Energy Conversion Power Generation OOO v Refinery OOO v Transport v v Commercial Sector v v Residential Sector Urban Resident v v Rural Resident v v

New technologies: examples Transport: Natural gas car Natural gas bus Resident: Water heater by solar energy Natural gas heating system

C O 2 em i ssi ons i n A gr i cul t ur e sect or 70 60 50 Fr ozen t - C 40 M ar ket M 30 Pol i cy 20 10 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Y ear

C O 2 em i ssi ons i n t ext i l e i ndust r y 100 80 Fr ozen t - C 60 M ar ket M 40 Pol i cy 20 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Y ear

C O 2 em i ssi on i n m achi ner y sect or 100 80 Fr ozen Mt-C 60 M ar ket 40 Pol i cy 20 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Y ear

C O 2 em i ssi on by cases 3000 2500 Million Tons-C Technol ogy Fr ozen 2000 M ar ket 1500 1000 Pol i cy 500 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Year

C O 2 em i ssi on by sect or i n 2030 2500 2000 Million ton-C Technol ogy Fr ozen 1500 M ar ket 1000 Pol i cy 500 0 Commercial Resident Resident Transport Industry Urban Rural sect or

E ner gy D em and S cenar i os 4500 4000 3500 3000 Technol ogy Fr ozen 2500 M ar ket 2000 P ol i cy 1500 1000 500 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Beijing Study: Framework Base year: 1998 Energy: N.gas, Coal, Electricity, Gasoline, Diesel, Fuel Oil, LPG Energy supply constraint Energy price: differ among sectors Gases: CO2, SO2, NOx, TSP Desulphurization technologies will be considered in a simple way

Sectors for Beijing Project Sectors Subsectors Resident Urban Rural Transport Public passenger transport: bus Public passenger transport: city railway (including subway) Public passenger transport: Taxi Private car Railway Freight transport Service Office building&Hotel Restaurant Others Industrial sectors Steel making Petroleum Processing Chemical products Nonmetal Mineral Products Food and Beverage Production Textile Machinery Electricity, steam and hot water production and supply Others

Map of Beijing

GNP in Beijing, 1978=100 700 600 500 index 400 300 200 100 0 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Y e a r

GDP Mix in Beijing 1 0 0 % 8 0 % T e r t i a r y 6 0 % % S e c o n d a r y 4 0 % P r e m a r y 2 0 % 0 % 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 Year

Population in Beijing 1400 s 1200 n o 1000 s r e 800 p 0 600 0 0 400 0 1 200 0 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 Y e a r A gr i cul t ur e N on- A gr i cul t ur e

Energy use in 1998 Energy use by sectors, Beijing 1998 151.8 96.2 303.2 Primary Industry Secondary Industry 818.6 Tertiary Industry Urban Rural 2543.5

GDP scenario for Beijing 3000 2500 Billion Yuan 2000 Tertiary 1500 Secondary Primary 1000 500 0 1998 2010 2020 2030 Year

Population scenario in Beijing 15 10 million Non-Agriculture Agriculture 5 0 1998 2010 2020 2030 Year

Cases defined C ases D escription Technology frozen A IM /C hina M arket A IM /C hina Policy A IM /C hina Environm ent Target C ounterm easures by governm ent G reen D evelopm ent L ocal environm ent policies

New technologies for Beijing study Sectors Technology Resident Urban Gas fired household heating/cooling system, Advanced air conditioner, microwave-oven Resident Rural Gas-range for cooking, advanced air conditioner, new washing machine, new refrigerator, electric pot Transport LPG bus, LPG car, Electric bus, city railway system, high efficiency vehicle Commerce Independent Co-generation system Industrial sectors To be identified