LCS LCS LCSs for China LCSs for China s for China s for China R - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

LCS LCSs for China s for China LCS LCSs for China s for China

R id i l R id i l d d Residential Residential sector and sector and transportation sector transportation sector p

China team China team Tsukuba, w orkshop Tsukuba, w orkshop Tsukuba, w orkshop Tsukuba, w orkshop 2 0 0 8 / 1 0 / 3 1 2 0 0 8 / 1 0 / 3 1

D d h D d h Dem and change Dem and change from ESS from ESS from ESS from ESS

Demand change Demand change g (residential sector) (residential sector)

2050/ 2005 Warm 1 40 Warm 1.40 Cool 1.79 H t 3 60 Hot water 3.60 Cook 1.72 Lighting 2.45 Frige 2.75

Unit Mtoe

• thers

2.74

Unit: Mtoe

Demand change Demand change Demand change Demand change (transportation (transportation-

• p sector)

p sector) ( p ( p p ) p )

2050/ 2005 PPV_S 5.51 PPV_M 5.50 PPV_L 5.00 CPV 7.60 BUS 8.00 TRN 3.82 SHP 7.71

Unit: Mtoe

AIR 20.00

Demand change Demand change Demand change Demand change (transportation (transportation-f sector) f sector) (transportation (transportation f sector) f sector)

2050/ 2005 FV_M 10.11 FV_L 10.11 TRN 5 22 TRN 5.22 SHP 8.00 AIR 59.58

Unit: Mtoe

Options Options Options Options

Building heating charge mechanism g g g

Unable to adapt for

20 years

adapt for existing buildings Accelerate Uncertainty of file demand Cost of installing meters and Reluctance of Accelerate retirement

• f existing

buildings demand Improvement

• f energy

t infrastructure modification for existing buildings developers to do this for new buildings

10 years

Government subsidy and public funding management system High capital Regulation and laws; punishment and reward High capital cost Government financial CDM, reward Difficult to expand in short time Lack of capita sources

5 years

a c a support or raise money from market C , electricity fee, redistribution

• f heating fee

Demonstration project

Green buildings and energy saving buildings and energy saving buildings

Few involvement of all Integrated approach Lack of knowledge in both supply and demand side stakeholders Unable to implement

20 years

No technology Training of stakeholders, such as d i p in short time Reluctance of stakeholders such No technology

• r lack of

technology designers, developers, consumers, etc. Incentive from government Demonstratio n project as developers Cooperation ith Lack of funding

G

government Lack involvement of company with developed countries Lack of enough market signal

Government support, capacity building by funding from developed countries

Incentive from government

10 years

market signal regulations and commands, tax

F l t Fuel tax

Higher price of gasoline Conflict of revenue distribution from fee collection or tax Loss for some revenue Loss for some special transportation type, e.g.

10 years

Reduce the fixed fee for vehicles Subsidy for

yp g agriculture

Coordination of different departments, e.g. tax vs. for vehicles y specific sectors ta s transportation department; central and local tax government

Institutional rearrangement

g

rearrangement

Raising tax in end point

5 years

Hybrid car

G t High price Government subsidy in initial phases; Improving R&D Public acceptance Difficult for

15 years

R&D expansion in short time Increase

• f

gasoline Awareness raising Low investment

• f Chinese

enterprises on Government demonstration Unwillingness from

Incentive from

governments

d

Lack of money to cover the cost of capacity buildings

5 years

gasoline price p R&D government officials Regulations on t hi l

and international cooperation

capacity buildings Support from developed countries government vehicles countries

Fuel cell car

Technology maturity High cost for hydrogen Lack of infrastructure Resources RE l R&D and technology learning R&D Input and technology Construction of infrastructure

50 years

RE power, nuclear power learning gy transfer infrastructure Lack of money Late player and weak basis Lack of money Cost competitiveness Government International cooperation;

20 years

weak basis Government input RPS, incentive for RE input cooperation; CDM

R l R l Result Result

Typical situation Typical situation Typical situation Typical situation from Chinese perspective from Chinese perspective

• Institutional change need time
• Culture difference
• Command and control methods vs
• Command and control methods vs.

market-based instruments

• Obligatory vs. voluntary

Back casting m odel Back casting m odel g

Options definition Options definition

Building heating charge g g g m echanism

• parameter set

Building warm Demand change 20 Demand change

• 20

Efficiency Fuel consumption change by fuel shift + 5(gas) Implement 30 years Implement 30 years

U it Mt Unit: Mtoe

Green buildings g and energy saving buildings

• parameter set

Green building Energy saving building warm cool warm cool Demand

• 18
• 1
• 0.23
• 1.36

change Efficiency 50% 50% 50% 50% Implement 35years 35years 35years 35years

U it Mt Unit: Mtoe

Fuel tax-p

• parameter set

PPV-S PPV-M PPV-L CPV Demand change

• 30
• 2
• 25
• 30

Effi i Efficiency Implement 35years 35years 40years 40years

Unit: Mtoe

Hybrid car-p

• parameter set

PPV-L Demand change Demand change Efficiency 100% Efficiency 100% Fuel consumption change by fuel shift

• 5(oil)

y Implement 40years

U it Mt Unit: Mtoe

F l ll Fuel cell car-p

• parameter set

PPV-S CPV Demand change Efficiency Fuel consumption change by fuel shift

• 20(oil)
• 30(oil)

I l t 20 20 Implement 20years 20years

U it Mt Unit: Mtoe

Results and discussion Results and discussion Results and discussion Results and discussion

Results Results – – option

• ption penetraion

penetraion p p

Results Results – CO2 emission CO2 emission Results Results CO2 emission CO2 emission

Discussion Discussion Discussion Discussion

• Setup of options

– Barrier 1: Different sectors and fuels: too complex and easy to be confused – Options: flexibility for fuel and sector selection for one option – Barrier 2: Bugs, difficult to judge the b l f l reasonability of results – Options: update the program, which need ’ f db k every person’s feedback

2015 2015

Strange Strange Change of Change of Change of Change of result result

2020 2025 2025

Di i Di i Discussion Discussion

• Options: How to consider the pre-request options?

– Model problem How to do for the options with less carbon reduction but – How to do for the options with less carbon reduction but investment collection which is also crucial

• Uncertainties:

– Time consuming – Assumption: too much, especially for cost – Linkage with other model: how to introduce? – Units: keep consistent Effects: option do not take effect as assumed – Effects: option do not take effect as assumed – Trend: linearly or other?

Th k ! Th k ! Thank you! Thank you!