Toward LCS-Indonesia Focusing on Peat Fire Management Rizaldi Boer - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Toward LCS-Indonesia Focusing on Peat Fire Management Rizaldi Boer Centre for Climate Risk and Opportunity Management (CCROM) Bogor Agriculture Uinversity

LCS Scenarios-Indonesia • Under Technology Needs Assessment Study, Indonesia is now assessing the strategies toward LCS which will be completed by the end oif February. • Projection of emission from all sector under BAU and policy scenarios have been developed • This presentation will focus on strategy for reducing emission from peat fire

Abatement Potential 2030 Energy Efficiency 14 Gt CO 2 /y Low Carbon Energy Supply 12 Gt CO 2 /y Abatement Emission: Potential: Forestry and Forestry and Agriculture Agriculture 15.1 Gt CO 2 /y 12.4 Gt CO 2 /y

What is GHG Mitigation Potential from Land Use (South & South East Asian) * GtCO 2 e pa 1.4 3.8 1.4 3.8 1.7 1.7 agriculture 0.7 0.7 Avoided Forest Agriculture * Mitigation Deforestation Sequestration Opportunity Tillage and residues Reduced Deforestation Pastureland Afforestation management from Slash & Burn Agriculture Cropland Afforestation Grassland management Reduced Forest Conversion Degraded Forest Organic soils restoration Reforestation to Pasture and Degraded lands restoration Forest Management Intensive Agriculture Reduced Timber Harvesting • 2030 - Forest carbon; agricultural sequestration; and avoidance of N 2 O and CH 4 emissions, mainly from livestock (< 0.1 Gt). Source: Smith et al., 2007 (Figure 8.5: Total technical mitigation potentials (all practices, all GHGs: MtCO2-eq/yr) for each region by 2030, showing mean estimates); Nabuurs et al, 2007 (Table 9.3: Potential of mitigation measures of global forestry activities. Global model results indicate annual amount sequestered or emissions avoided, above business as usual, in 2030 for carbon prices 100 US$/tCO2 and less); both from Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of working group III to the 4 th assessment report of the IPCCC

Indonesia ’ s GHG Emissions: What ’ s Big, What ’ s Growing Fossil Fuels Forests / Land Use Growing at 6%/yr Energy May Be Stable Or Declining Data Source: IEA 2004 Forests Annual Emissions: Deforestation & Peat Loss / Land (MtCO2e 2,398, Averaged Over Time) Annual Emissions from Fossil Fuel Use (MtCO2e 336) Gas Coal 21% Deforestation 26% 22% Source: From World Bank Office Indonesia, 2008. Pulp & Palm on Peat Peatland Fires From Low Carbon 5% 53% Project-Phase 1 HIGH UNCERTAINTY Oil Peat Drainage 11 year average 53% 20% All figures in MtCO2e. Forest data are ranges from 360 to 3778 Mt) compiled from various years • Forests dominate emissions now, but no reason to expect major increase over time; As forests depleted, or controls installed, emissions will decline. • GHG Emissions from fossil fuel use are low relative to forests, but growing faster than GDP • By 2030, situation could change substantially depending on BAU, changes, land use allocations, biofuels

Emission from Peat Fire van der Werf Heil et al. Levine Duncan Year 2007 1999 Page et al. , 2002 2003 et al . (2008) Lowest Highest 1997 4026 898 2970 9423 2567 - 1998 1082 242 799 2534 689 - 1999 623 139 458 1459 396 - 2000 304 66 224 711 194 172+106 2001 645 143 477 1511 411 194+181 2002 2204 491 1624 5155 1404 678+246 2003 1188 264 876 2783 759 246+121 2004 1907 425 1408 4462 1217 440+180 2005 1694 378 1250 3960 1078 451+264 2006 3560 796 2625 8334 2270 1111+433 2007 524 117 385 1225 334 Mean 1614 360 1191 3778 1029 469+187

Monthly ENSO Index and Average of Emission from Peat Fire from the Five Studies Emission from 60 0 0 3 .5 C O 2 Em issio n peat fire 3 .0 M o n tly EN SO In d ex increased O2) EN 45 0 0 2 .5 significantly in Mean Emission (Mt C 2 .0 El Nino years 30 0 0 1 .5 SO Index (oC 1 .0 15 0 0 0 .5 0 .0 ) 0 -0 .5 -1 .0 -15 0 0 -1 .5 1 6 1 6 1 6 1 6 1 6 1 6 1 6 1 6 1 6 1 6 1 6 1 99 7 19 9 8 1 9 99 2 0 00 2 00 1 2 00 2 20 0 3 2 0 04 2 0 05 2 00 6 2 00 7

Relationship between ENSO Index Anomaly (Jun-Dec) and Emission Anomaly 3.00 3 00 0 Em E m ission A no m a ly 2 50 0 2.50 E N S O In de x An o m aly ) 2 00 0 iss 2.00 ly (oC ion 1 50 0 1.50 A a 1 00 0 om no 1.00 m n 5 00 x A aly 0.50 0 (M de 0.00 In t C -5 00 O -0.50 -1 00 0 2) -1.00 -1 50 0 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

Relationship between Seasonal ENSO Index and CO2 emission from peat fire 4500 4500 4500 y = 1229 .4x + 9 79.2 3 y = 1107.7x + 1094 .9 4000 y = 10 40.6x + 1208.7 4000 4000 2 = 0.792 2 = 0.8184 R R 2 = 0.8093 2) R 3500 2) 2) 3500 3500 O 3000 O O 3000 3000 t C t C t C 2500 ission (M 2500 2500 ission (M ission (M 2000 2000 2000 1500 1500 1500 Em Em Em 1000 1000 1000 500 500 500 0 0 0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1 .0 2 .0 3 .0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3 .0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3 .0 August-O ctober EN SO Inde x (oC ) J un e-Augu st EN SO Ind ex (oC ) J uly-Septe m be r EN SO Ind ex (oC ) 4500 4500 4500 y = 1229 .4x + 9 79.2 3 y = 946.7x + 1377 .2 y = 1 134.1 x + 1 177.7 4000 4000 4000 2 = 0.792 R 2 = 0.7704 2 = 0 R R .8445 2) 2) Emission (Mt CO2) 3500 3500 3500 O O 3000 3000 3000 t C t C 2500 2500 ission (M ission (M 2500 2000 2000 2000 1500 1500 1500 Em Em 1000 1000 1000 500 500 500 0 0 0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3 .0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1 .0 2 .0 3 .0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 Septem ber-N ov e m ber EN SO Inde x (oC ) O ctober-D ecem ber EN SO Index (oC ) June-D ecem b er EN SO Index (oC )

Emission from Peat Emission from peat land Quick C emission Slow C emission Control peat conversion Land clearing using Need Policy zero burning Forest protection Reform, Law Fire control/delayed land Peat restoration (canal blocking Enforcement, clearing close to rainy season, and enrichment planting) and Incentive particularly in El-Nino years system Improved water management Peat fire Drained Peat Use of fire in land Establishment of clearing/slash and timber and agriculture burn practices), etc plantation etc

On-going initiatives • Development of FEWS based on ENSO Index (http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/.Fire/) • Development of fire prone map based on hot spot number and fire driving factors (distance to main road/river/resettlement, soil types, soil cover etc). • Establishing effective dissemination system for fire alert • Enhancing community based peat fire management • Facilitating local government to develop regulation on fire management • Creating incentive mechanism (insurance, carbon based payment etc.) who successfully avoid or reduce fire area in extreme drought year as informed by ENSO index • Creating fair payment distribution system

Fire Prone Map of Kalimantan It was developed based on proximity from village centre, distance from road/river, land cover and soil types (Jaya and Boer, 2008) Low-medium risk Medium-High risk High-Very high risk

Fire Risk Forecast 1 or 2 month lead time • Hot Spot = exp(1.1*EI+6.8) • ENSO Index (EI) = 1.5 • Hot spot number Hot Spot = exp(1.1*1.5+6.8) • Hot Spot = 4678 > Median • Cumulative rainfall is still negative • Risk of fire is high, need to intensify fire control and call for implementing measures, particularly in high fire risk area) ENSO Index Cumulative rainfall (real time and long term mean)

Decision Monitor SSTA or ENSO index process for fire management Forecast hot spot number 1 or 2 month lead time Funds for N High hot spot Payment number? Effective (local/national/ dissemination global Y system Institutional Intensify fire control in fire prone system for areas and announce fire alert payment Monitoring system distribution Warning/ Are fire control Provide N Y Apply measures applied? Incentive Penalty Developed Certification basis for Supporting Continue intensive Body reward (e.g. Policies & monitoring until wet Carbon based Government season start payment-REL) regulations

Illustration of C-based Payment 6000 s 5000 Achieved n issio emission 4000 reduction f em Baseline emission from 3000 ate o peat fire stim 2000 Level of emission E from peat after 1000 being monitored 0 -1 0 1 2 3 E N S O In d ex ENSO index Jun- Dec: 2.0