Japan Scenario for LCS Japan Scenario for LCS Kyoto University - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

AIM-TWS 31 Oct 2008 @NIES

Japan Scenario for LCS Japan Scenario for LCS

Kyoto University Kyoto University Tomoaki YURA Kohsuke YOSHIMOTO

Contents

1 Background

• 1. Background
• 2. Scenario development
• 3. Results of ESS
• 4. Policy implementation

y p

• Low carbon working style (teleworking)
• Green and door to door transportation

p

• Smart life by house sharing
• 5. Conclusion
• 5. Conclusion

2

Background

• Now, Japan is already aging society.

In 2050 Japan is completely aged society In 2050, Japan is completely aged society.

• Aged society has several problems
• Aged society has several problems.
• Lack of labor force
• Elderly people need door to door transportation.
• Elderly people tend to live alone. No. of single-person

household will increase.

• Consider environmental-balanced aged society in
• rder to create LCS
• Aim to create harmonious LCS with aged society

3

Population Pyramid by Age & Sex in 2000

4

Source: http://www.ipss.go.jp/

Population Pyramid by Age & Sex in 2050

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Source: http://www.ipss.go.jp/

Background

• Now, Japan is already aging society.

In 2050 Japan is completely aged society In 2050, Japan is completely aged society.

• Aged society has several problems
• Aged society has several problems.
• Lack of labor force
• Elderly people need door to door transportation.
• Elderly people tend to live alone. No. of single-person

household will increase.

• Consider environmental-balanced aged society in
• rder to create LCS
• Aim to create harmonious LCS with aged society

6

Scenario

Our scenario is based on Japan B scenario. In addition, we identify three countermeasures which are also beneficial for aged society.

Low carbon working style (teleworking) Green and door to door passenger transportation Smart living by house sharing

We also assume to implement nuclear power generation compare to Japan B scenario. generation compare to Japan B scenario.

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Scenario quantification

Low carbon working style (teleworking)

30% decrease of passenger transportation service 30% decrease of passenger transportation service demand G d d t d t t ti Green and door to door passenger transportation 20% private vehicles’ service demand converts to public transportation Smart living by house sharing g y g 25% decrease of service demand in residential sector Nuclear power generation Nuclear power generation 15% increase of Share of nuclear power generation

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[Results 1] CO2 emission by sector

• 50

100 150 200 250 300 350 2000

76% reduction

20 0 2050_KU Industrial Residential Commercial

• Trans. Prv.
• Trans. Frg.

Other

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[Results 2-a] Factor analysis (P t t ti ) (Passenger transportation)

D /E C' tal 9% 9% 0% D E/D C'/ C/C To

• 9%
• 9%
• 40%
• 20%
• 39%
• 40%
• 60%

40% vs 2000's 100%

• 80%

v

• 97%
• 120%
• 100%

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2050_KU

[Results 2-b] Factor analysis (Residential) (Residential)

D /E C'

• tal
• 4%
• 10%

0% D E/D C'/ C/C To

• 19%
• 24%
• 30%
• 20%
• 46%

60%

• 50%
• 40%

vs 2000's

• 80%
• 70%
• 60%

v

• 92%
• 100%
• 90%

80%

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2050_KU

Low carbon working style (teleworking)

Dissemination of low

High initial cost to introduce teleworking Not enough technology level to disseminate

Dissemination of low carbon working style (teleworking) Incentives to teleworking Promotion of improvement of the

introduce teleworking level to disseminate

g improvement of the technology level of teleworking system

Lack of information of environmental advantage of teleworking

Organizing workshops about LCA research of teleworking

Lack of comprehensive & information Lack of assistance to teleworking system research

Promotion of LCA researches about

Lack of comprehensive & information

Provide financial & social assistance to teleworking system researchers teleworking

Lack of cooperation for LCA research of teleworking

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Provide financial & social assistance to LCA researchers

research of teleworking

Barriers Future objectives

Low carbon working style (teleworking)

Provide financial & social assistance

Low carbon working

Lack of cooperation for

Barriers Future objectives

(teleworking)

5yr to LCA researchers Promotion of LCA researches

style (teleworking)

Lack of comprehensive p research

5yr Promotion of LCA researches about teleworking

L k f comprehensive and correct information

2yr

Reduce 30 % passenger transport

Organizing workshops about LCA research of teleworking

Lack of information of environmental advantage of ICT ki t l

2yr

passenger transport demand

Incentives to teleworking

High initial cost working style

10yr 20yr

Not enough technology level to disseminate

Promotion of improvement of the technology level of 20yr Di i ti f l b 10yr

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2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

technology level of teleworking Dissemination of low carbon working style (teleworking)

Action (green and door to door passenger transportation)

Advertising and workshop

Difficulty of door to door transportation

On demand community bus

Modal shift in passengers to public

p

transportation lack of Knowledge or information about modal shift

D l i

passengers to public transportation Lack of infrastructure

Developing ODCB ICT system

Infrastructure development

Lack of infrastructure Lack of money No information

• f demand

p

Subsidy or public investment

Research about Estimation of

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passengers volume

Gantt chart (green and door to door passenger transportation)

2050 2040 2030 2020 2008

Modal shift in passengers to Infrastructure development public transportation (10 years) On demand community bus (10 years) Developing ICT system Subsidy or public investment Estimation of passengers volume

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Advertising and workshop

Action (smart living by house sharing)

Recruit members who want to share house build and renovate Ch th Subsidies for collective houses share house

Lack of money

build and renovate to collective houses Change the working style

smart living by house sharing

invasion of privacy

g

Advertising and

Lack of Information

Give incentives

Lack of advantage

Advertising and workshop about house sharing Give incentives for 3 generation family

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Gantt chart (smart living by house sharing)

2050 2040 2030 2020 2008

Smart living by house sharing(30 years) Change the working style Give incentive for 3 generation family build and renovate to collective Subsidies for collective house build and renovate to collective houses Recruit members who want to share house Advertising and workshop about house sharing

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Reduction of energy demand

16 18 20 Mtoe) 12 14 16 demand (M 8 10

• f energy d

2 4 6 Reduction 2 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Green and door to door passenger transportation Low carbon working style (teleworking)

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Low carbon working style (teleworking) Smart living by house sharing

l i conclusions

We developed the LCS scenario which is also beneficial for aged society also beneficial for aged society. The scenario shows 76% emission reduction i i vision. We proposed three actions by using back casting.

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Our opinions about BCM

Options Options

Too many options If we assume modal shift we have to make options of If we assume modal shift, we have to make options of each service decrease and increase.

Assumption Assumption

Energy based set up If we assume modal shift we want to set up by If we assume modal shift, we want to set up by conversion change rate not by energy demand change. 20

Thank you!!

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