Low Carbon Society (LCS): Scenario, Modeling and Analysis for India - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Low Carbon Society (LCS): Scenario, Modeling and Analysis for India P.R. Shukla Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India Presentation for the 12th AIM International Workshop NIES, Tsukuba, Japan, February 19-21, 2007 Low Carbon
Low Carbon Society: Scenario and Modeling for India
Presentation for the 12th AIM International Workshop NIES, Tsukuba, Japan, February 19-21, 2007 P.R. Shukla Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Low Carbon Society: Scenario and Modeling for India
Low Carbon Society: Scenario and Modeling for India
“For developing countries, the ‘good news’ is that their environment and natural resources policies are often so bad that there are reforms which would be both good for the economy and good for the environment.”
Joseph Stiglitz, in Foreword to “Economic Development and Environmental Sustainability: New Policy Options”
National Development Targets Climate Quality Economic/social Indicator Climate Quality Economic/social Indicator
Climate Goal Technology & Institutional Innovations; Co-benefits
Low Carbon Society: Scenario and Modeling for India
Low Carbon Society Innovations
(APEIS/SDB)
Co-benefits Sustainability
Technological Social/Institutional Management Modify Preferences Avoid Lock-ins Long-term Vision Win/Win Options Shared Costs/Risks Aligning Markets National Socio-economic Objectives and Targets Global Climate Change Objectives and Targets
Low Carbon Society: Scenario and Modeling for India
Key areas for interventions:
Demographics
Lower Population Growth (e.g. investment in women’s education) Higher investment in social infrastructures (e.g. health, education)
Conservation
Efficient technology, Substitutions, Recycling, Pricing, Dematerialization
City Planning
Architecture/ Building Codes; Land use policies; Public Transport
Infrastructure choices R&D, technology transfer and selective technology push Incentives for environmental industry Influencing consumer preferences/ behavior
Low Carbon Society: Scenario and Modeling for India
Policies for public private partnership higher (public and private)
investments in education Increases supply of education services
Incentives for education for women and socially and economically backward
sections enhances demand for education
Women’s education reduces fertility rates & this together with family planning
campaigns lead to lower population (than in reference & some others cases)
The increases in labor participation rates and enhanced skill profiles maintains
labor supply and higher productivity in next few decades
Rural development policies (including education, employment, infrastructure
push and reduced risk for investments) break through the rural/ urban dualism
Low Carbon Society: Scenario and Modeling for India
Factors of Production
Inputs: Resources supply/ Technologies
Intermediate goods & investments
Final Demand/ Behavior
Governance
Global/ External
Low Carbon Society: Scenario and Modeling for India
Population Projection for 2030 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90-95 95-99 100+ Age group Population (million) Female Male Population Projection for 2010 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90-95 95-99 100+ Age group Population (million) Female Male Population Projection for 2050 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90-95 95-99 100+ Age group Population (million) Female Male Population in 1970 50 40 30 20 10 10 20 30 40 50 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90-95 95-99 100+ Age group Population (million) Female Male
1970 2010 2030 2050
Low Carbon Society: Scenario and Modeling for India
Population (Million)
358 555 849 1183 1449 1593
200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Annual Growth Rate of Population
2.22% 2.15% 1.67% 1.02% 0.47%
0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 1950-70 1970-90 1990-2010 2010-30 2030-50
Labor Supply
133 210 360 595 795 915 200 400 600 800 1000 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Annual Growth Rate of Labor Supply
2.30% 2.74% 2.54% 1.46% 0.70% 0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 3.00% 1950-70 1970-90 190-2010 2010-30 2030-50
Low Carbon Society: Scenario and Modeling for India
Human Capital
⎯
Government Expenditure in Education
⎯
Private Expenditure in Education
⎯
Urban / Rural & Gender-wise Education Expenditure
⎯
(Net) Migration by Labor Classes (intra & inter county)
⎯
Government/ Private Expenditure
⎯
Knowledge Flows
Technology
⎯
Backbones (infrastructures)
⎯
Learning, transfers, deployment
Saving/ Investments
⎯
Social Security
⎯
Lifestyles, Behaviors
Governance
⎯
Institutions
⎯
Laws
⎯
Policies
Savings Rate
20.60 22.80 24.60 31.50 33.00 30.00 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 40 35.00 26.00
??
Low Carbon Society: Scenario and Modeling for India India’s GDP (Index: 2005 GDP = 1)
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Index: 2005 GDP = 1
CAGR 2005-32 VH - 9%, H - 8%, M - 7%, L - 6% CAGR 2005-50 VH - 7.79%, H - 7.16%, M - 6.45%, L - 5.95%
Very High High Medium Low
India’s GDP Growth Rate (%)
0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
GDP Growth Rates % Very High High Med Low
2050
Low Carbon Society: Scenario and Modeling for India
1980
41% 37% 22%
1950
13% 28% 59%
2005
Agriculture Agriculture Industry Industry Services Services 22% 52% 26% Agriculture Industry Services 22%
Services 57% Agri. 16% Industry 27%
2050
Industry 28% Agri. 10% Services 62%
2100 2025
Services 55% Agri. 19% Industry 26%
Low Carbon Society: Scenario and Modeling for India
Percentage of Primary Energy Consumption 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
1952 1960 1970 1980 1990
Traditional Biomass Nuclear
How to transit to Modern Biomass? Food Security? Fuel Supply? Waste disposal? Safety?
+Ve
2001
Hydro Coal Oil Gas
Domestic Resource: +ve Direct Employment: +ve Energy Security: -ve Foreign Exchange: -ve Geopolitical Risk: High Foreign Exchange: -ve Regional water disputes? Indirect Benefits
Low Carbon Society: Scenario and Modeling for India
Low Carbon Society: Scenario and Modeling for India
Drivers of India’s LCS Scenario
Carbon Market Signal (e.g. from 2
Energy Device Efficiency (Demand and Supply-side) Dematerialization
⎯
Building Materials and Design
⎯
Reduce (demand), Recycle & Reuse (3R) Materials Infrastructure investments
⎯
Avoid lock-ins
⎯
Shift demand (e.g. transport modal split) R&D and Technology Transfer
⎯
Leapfrog (to the efficiency frontier)
⎯
Innovations (to shift the efficiency frontier) Planning & Governance
⎯
Facilitate change in Lifestyles & Behaviors
⎯
Institutions, Laws, Policies
Low Carbon Society: Scenario and Modeling for India
Mitigation
India’s Cumulative Carbon Emission from 2000-2050
Billion Ton of CO2 Reference Scenario: 127.2 LCS Scenario: 64.3 Cumulative Mitigation in LCS: 62.9 % Cumulative Mitigation in LCS: 49.5% % Mitigation in LCS in 2050: 70.0%
Low Carbon Society: Scenario and Modeling for India
Electricity (Supply
+ T&D Efficiency)
Buildings
(Materials/Design)
Transport (Modal shift) Material substitutions Renewable Energy Reduced Consumption Recycling 745 384 328 274 207 90 102 265 Device Efficiency
2840 Total CO2 Mitigation Mitigation in LCS
(in 2050) 173 272 Urban Planning Transport Infrastructure 2050 2000 2006 1284 Million Ton of CO2 1032 4057 2050 LCS Emission: 1217 (70% Mitigation target in 2050)
2050 Base Scenario
Low Carbon Society: Scenario and Modeling for India
contributed by multiple direct and indirect policies, most of which belong to the policy packages relating to “sustainable development”.
significantly to dematerialization and energy efficiency in construction
mitigation through dematerialization are:
Mitigation (MT CO2) in 2050
Material Substitutions 207 Reduced Consumption 173 Recycling 90
the substitutions and reduced consumption contribute most to mitigation in the LCS scenario - are steel, aluminum, cement, fertilizer and paper.
co-benefits.
Materials Demand in Base vs. LCS Cement Fertilizer Paper Steel
Base LCS Base LCS Base LCS Base LCS
Low Carbon Society: Scenario and Modeling for India
India’s CO2 intensity of GDP: Index 2000=100
Index 2000=100
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
12.1 Base Scenario LCS Scenario 3.6
India’s Per Capita CO2 Emissions (in Ton of CO2)
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2000
Per Capita Emissions Base Scenario LCS Scenario
3.0
Low Carbon Society: Scenario and Modeling for India
Mitigation Regime Co-benefits
SO2 mitigation alone in Reference Scenario
Little carbon mitigation
SO2 Co-benefit in LCS Scenario
LCS policies generate benefits equivalent to 30% lower SO2
in 2050 and cumulative saving in SO2 Emissions Reduction
equivalent to $11.2 billion over period 2006-2050
Joint Mitigation (Period 2007-2050)
Low Carbon Society: Scenario and Modeling for India
LCS in Developing Countries Context
– LCS actions are primarily development centric and facilitate achieving national sustainable development and global environmental objectives simultaneously and cost-effectively
LCS Scenarios in Developing Countries Context
– LCS scenario storyline for developing countries rests on innovations, co-benefits and sustainability – The key issues in near-term is to gain co-benefits and avoid lock-ins and in the long-run to transit to a sustainable development pathway
LCS Modeling and Analysis for India
– India will have low per capita emissions throughout the century – Significant opportunities exist in India (and South-Asia) for aligning sustainable development and climate actions which can deliver co-benefits in the short-term and avoid lock-ins in the long-term
LCS Roadmap for Developing Countries
– Mainstream climate change and development through Sustainable Development
– LCS Roadmap will include adaptation measures