The 2000 Billion Ton Carbon Gorilla Implication of terrestrial - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The 2000 Billion Ton Carbon Gorilla

Implication of terrestrial carbon emissions for a LCS

Global Energy Technology Strategy Program

Low Carbon Society

Marshall Wise, Leon Clarke, Kate Calvin, Allison Thomson, Ben Bond- Lamberty, Ron Sands, Steve Smith, Tony Janetos, Jae Edmonds February 12, 2009 PNNL-SA-60765

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I ntroduction

There are approximately 2000 PgC in the terrestrial ecosystem. All human activities must be limited to about 500 PgC (2005 to 2095) to limit atmospheric CO2 to 450 ppm Terrestrial systems cannot be ignored in the development of a strategy to achieve an LCS. We find that relative to a reference scenario, a larger stock of unmanaged ecosystems and managed forests is desirable to limit carbon concentrations consistent w ith a Low Carbon Society.

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Agriculture and Bioenergy Assum ptions

Bioenergy can be an important technology to implement the goals of a Low Carbon Society Three types of bioenergy

1. Traditional—treated exogenously 2. Co-products, e.g. bark and waste in pulp and paper, but also crop residues,

• Depend on production of the primary product.
• Have a price-sensitive availability curve.

3. Purpose-grown bioenergy crops—high productivity cellulosic bioenergy crops—not corn.

Agricultural crop productivity growth rates

Reference scenario—productivity growth declines to ~0.25%/yr by 2050 everywhere.

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Reference Scenario Bioenergy—dom inated by crop residues and m unicipal w aste

Bioenergy Production

Crop Residue Derived Bioenergy Municipal Solid Waste Purpose Grown Bioenergy 20 40 60 80 100 120

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

EJ/yr

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Crop Productivity as a Clim ate Technology

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How im portant is the realized crop productivity grow th rate?

Continued crop productivity growth is as important as many energy technologies—larger in aggregate than a Pacala-Socolow “Wedge”.

We re-run the reference scenario with a fixed crop productivity assumption and compare to the reference scenario which assumes that crop productivity converges to 0.25%/yr in 2050. We then compare the four scenarios in terms of land-use, crop prices, land-use change emissions, and bioenergy production.

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Land Use Change Em issions and Crop Productivity

• 1,500
• 1,000
• 500

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

TgC/yr

0.25%/yr Crop Productivity Growth No Crop Productivity Improvement

Land Use Change Emissions

Cumulative Emissions 2005 to 2095

0.5%/yr crop productivity growth: 50 PgC No crop productivity growth: 122 PgC Difference 72 PgC

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Bioenergy in the Context of Clim ate Stabilization

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Lim iting Atm ospheric CO2 Concentrations

We examine scenarios with the CO2 concentration limited to 450, 500 and 550 ppm at the end of the century. The choice is arbitrary and is used solely for illustrative purposes. This choice should not be interpreted to reflect any belief that these concentration limits are inherently superior to any other CO2 concentration limits.

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Carbon Pricing

Tw o alternative carbon pricing regimes

1. Fossil fuel and industrial carbon tax (FFICT)—in this regime only fossil fuel and industrial carbon emissions are

• valued. Bioenergy is treated as having no net carbon. Terrestrial

carbon is valued at zero. 2. Universal carbon tax (UCT)—in this regime all carbon is valued equally regardless of either its origins or the activity that introduces it to (or removes it from) the atmosphere.

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Em issions, Concentrations and Stabilization—UCT Scenarios

• 5,000

5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095 TgC/yr

Reference 550 UCT 500 UCT 450 UCT 550 FFICT 500 FFICT 450 FFICT

Note: All scenarios are “overshoot”. Total Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095 PPM UCT 550 ppm UCT 500 ppm UCT 450 ppm Reference FFICT 550 ppm FFICT 500 ppm FFICT 450 ppm

Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations

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Net Land Use Change Em issions & Fossil Fuel and I ndustrial CO2 Em issions—W hen All Carbon is Valued ( UCT)

For a given CO2 concentration limit Valuing carbon suppresses land use change emissions. Valuing carbon also increases fossil fuel and industrial emissions

• 5,000

5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

TgC/yr

550 UCT 500 UCT 450 UCT Reference 550 FFICT 500 FFICT 450 FFICT

Land Use Change Emissions

• 5,000

5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

TgC/yr

Reference 550 UCT 500 UCT 450 UCT 550 FFICT 500 FFICT 450 FFICT

Fossil Fue l a nd Industria l CO 2

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Carbon Price & Bioenergy W hen Terrestrial Carbon is NOT Valued ( FFI CT)

$0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 $3,500 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095 2005 USD/tC UCT 550 UCT 500 UCT 450 Reference 550 FFICT 500 FFICT 450 FFICT

Carbon Price

Valuing all carbon, including terrestrial carbon Dramatically reduces the price of carbon. Cuts the price at 450 ppm in half! Reduces the amount of bioenergy production in the long term, but increases near-term bioenergy supply, relative to the case in which terrestrial carbon was not valued.

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

550 UCT 500 UCT 450 UCT Reference 550 FFICT 500 FFICT 450 FFICT

Purpose Grow n Bioenergy

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Bioenergy Use: FFI CT and UCT 5 0 0 ppm Scenarios

SUBSTANTIALLY LESS BIOENERGY PRODUCTION OCCURS THAN WHEN TERRESTRIAL CARBON IS NOT VALUED. Most bioenergy still goes to electricity production with CCS in the concentration limit scenarios. Reference

50 100 150 200 250 300 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095 EJ/yr

biomass to H2 biomass to H2 CCS Biomass (IGCC)_CCS Biomass (IGCC) Biomass (existing) Biomass (conv) refined liquids industrial refined liquids enduse wholesale gas industry building

FFICT 500 ppm

50 100 150 200 250 300 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095 EJ/yr

biomass to H2 biomass to H2 CCS Biomass (IGCC)_CCS Biomass (IGCC) Biomass (existing) Biomass (conv) refined liquids industrial refined liquids enduse wholesale gas industry building

UCT 500 ppm

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Bioenergy Use UCT Scenarios

50 100 150 200 250 300 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095 EJ/yr

50 100 150 200 250 300 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095 EJ/yr

As the limit tightens, more bioenergy is shifted tow ard bioelectricity production w ith CCS. Bioenergy supply grows more rapidly as the CO2 concentration limit tightens, but maximum production remains below 200 EJ/yr. Reference

50 100 150 200 250 300 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095 EJ/yr

UCT 500 ppm UCT 550 ppm UCT 450 ppm

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0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

I nde x 2 0 0 5 =1 .0

550 UCT 500 UCT 450 UCT Reference 550 FFICT 500 FFICT 450 FFICT

Wheat Price

Carbon Prices, Crop Prices, & Land Use Change Em issions

Carbon Price

• 2,000

2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

TgC/yr

550 UCT 500 UCT 450 UCT Reference 550 FFICT 500 FFICT 450 FFICT

Land-Use Change Emissions

Carbon prices and land use change emissions decline relative to the stabilization scenario where terrestrial carbon is not valued. But, crop prices are even higher, especially in the near term.

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The Land Use I m plications of Stabilizing at 4 5 0 ppm W hen Terrestrial Carbon is Valued ( UCT)

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

UrbanLand RockIceDesert OtherArableLand Tundra ShrubLand UnmanagedForest Forest PurGrownBio GrassLand UnmanagedPasture Pasture Rice SugarCrop OtherGrain OilCrop MiscCrop FodderCrop FiberCrop Corn Wheat

Other Unmanaged Land Unmanaged Forests Managed Forests Pasture Crops Unmanaged Pasture Desert Bioenergy Crops

450 ppm Stabilization Scenario When ALL Carbon is Valued Unmanaged ecosystems expand relative to the reference scenario. But, crop land declines. Reference Scenario

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

Other Unmanaged Land Unmanaged Forests Managed Forests Pasture Crops Unmanaged Pasture Desert Bioenergy Crops

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The Land Use I m plications of Stabilizing at 4 5 0 ppm W hen Terrestrial Carbon is NOT Valued ( FFI CT)

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

UrbanLand RockIceDesert OtherArableLand Tundra ShrubLand UnmanagedForest Forest PurGrownBio GrassLand UnmanagedPasture Pasture Rice SugarCrop OtherGrain OilCrop MiscCrop FodderCrop FiberCrop Corn Wheat

Other Unmanaged Land Unmanaged Forests Managed Forests Pasture Crops Unmanaged Pasture Desert Bioenergy Crops

450 ppm Stabilization Scenario When ALL Carbon is Valued (UCT) 450 ppm Stabilization Scenario When Terrestrial Carbon is NOT Valued (FFICT)

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

Other Unmanaged Land Unmanaged Forests Managed Forests Pasture Crops Unmanaged Pasture Desert Bioenergy Crops

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Corn Price W hen Carbon I s Valued But No Bioenergy I s Produced

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

I nde x 2 0 0 5 = 1 .0

Reference Reference (no purpose-grown bioenergy) 500 UCT (no purpose-grown bioenergy) 500 UCT 500 FFICT

Corn Price

Significant crop price escalation occurs if carbon is valued, even in the absence of purpose grown bioenergy production.

Prior to 2040 the influence of bioenergy is negligible. Prior to 2040 crop price escalation, relative to the reference scenario, is predominantly driven by the value

• f carbon.

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Sum m ing Up

There are approximately 2000 PgC in the terrestrial ecosystem.

At a price of $100/tC and an interest rate of 5%/y it provides an annual service of carbon storage of approximately $10 trillion/y. Approximately the same service as the U.S. GDP.

We find that relative to a reference scenario, a larger stock

• f unmanaged ecosystems and managed forests is

desirable We find that improving conventional crop productivity has the potential to reduce land-use change emissions by tens

• f billions of tons of carbon over the 21st century.

Waste streams are an important source of bioenergy. Bioenergy combined with CCS is potentially a very powerful technology for addressing climate change

• pening the door for NEGATIVE global emissions and

VERY Low Carbon Societies.

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END