Development of LCS Scenario in Iskandar Malaysia ( project under - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Development of LCS Scenario in Iskandar Malaysia ( project under SATREPS research program) ( p j p g ) HO Chin Siong and Janice Simson

Feb 22 2011 Japan Feb 22 2011 Japan Symposium on Towards Low carbon Society in Asia

• Asia LCS Scenario and Actions-

How to achieve sustainable low carbon society?

JST JICA 2011 2015 JST‐JICA 2011‐ 2015 Technical Cooperation Project UTM, IRDA, PTHM and JPBD Malaysia Kyoto University, Okayama University and NIES Japan

PRESENTATION OUTLINE

• 1. BACKGROUND

– Challenges and Issues – National Vision

• 2. CASE STUDY‐ ISKANDAR MALAYSIA

h l l – Comprehensive Development Plan 2025 – Modeling output

• 3. SATREPS PROJECT

– JICA –JST visit JICA JST visit – Workshops

Background ‐ MALAYSIA

R id b i i d

ISSUES AND CHALLENGES

Rapid urbanization and industrialization Relatively high carbon intensity dependence on fossil fuel High Private car ownership Low density development and urban sprawl Low efficiency appliances

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1 MALAYSIA CHARTING DEVELOPMENT 1 MALAYSIA CHARTING DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS A HIGH INCOME NATION TOWARDS A HIGH INCOME NATION

NATIONAL VISION 2010

• The 2011 Budget, with the aim to position Malaysia

as a developed and high-income economy with

TOWARDS A HIGH INCOME NATION TOWARDS A HIGH INCOME NATION

as a developed and high income economy with inclusive and sustainable development, will continue to ensure that the most conducive socio- economic environment is created through the G t T f ti P (GTP) t Government Transformation Programme (GTP) to underpin growth. The 10 The 10th

th Malaysia Plan

Malaysia Plan

• Building an environment that

Building an environment that enhances Quality enhances Quality

• Building an environment that

Building an environment that enhances Quality enhances Quality

• f Life
• f Life
• New urbanism and

New urbanism and compact city compact city

• Growth concentrated in

Growth concentrated in urban conurbation urban conurbation

• Safe city

Safe city initiatives initiatives y

• Developing climate resilient growth

Developing climate resilient growth policy policy

• Adaptation measures

Adaptation measures

• Mitigation measures

Mitigation measures

• Incentives for

Incentives for RE and EE RE and EE

• Improving

Improving Solid waste management Solid waste management

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• Improving

Improving Solid waste management Solid waste management

• Conserving forest

Conserving forest

• Reducing

Reducing emission to improve air quality emission to improve air quality

COP 15 – Malaysia’s target COP 15 Malaysia s target

• Prime Minster of Malaysia,

Y.A.B Dato’ Sri Mohd Najib bin Tun Abdul Razak, in COP15 last year at Copenhagen, Denmark, y p g , , proposed to reduce CO2 emission intensity in Malaysia to 40 per cent by the year to 40 per cent by the year 2020 compared with its 2005 levels, subject to assistance from developed countries. from developed countries.

COP15 on Dec 17, 2009 at Copenhagen, Denmark

6/9

Copenhagen, Denmark

CURRENT GREEN POLICIES IN MALAYSIA

National Green Technology Policy 2009

‐ Energy, Building , Water and waste management and Transportation

Malaysia Budget 2010‐2011 ‐ Developing Putrajaya and Cyberjaya as pioneer township in Developing Putrajaya and Cyberjaya as pioneer township in green technology National policy on Climate Change ‐ Roadmap for Malaysia to achieve 40% reduction of GHG emission by 2020 emission by 2020 Green Neighborhood Guidelines – JPBD 2010 S t l ti N i hb h d tt d d i G ‐Smart location, Neighbourhood pattern and design, Green Infrastructure. Green Township Framework –Guide Towards LC Cities 2010‐ MIP

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Case study

Iskandar Development Region Iskandar Development Region 2,216 km2 Population 1,353,200 Population 1,353,200

Iskandar Development Region

Comprehensive Development Plan 2006 Comprehensive Development Plan 2006‐2025 2025

DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES: DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES:

 Balanced Development  Protect and Conserve Nature, Historic and Open Spaces  Focused Development at Areas with Existing & Adequate Infrastructure  Promote Infill & Redevelopment  Enhance Accessibility  Promote Key Economic Areas as Focal Point For Growth  Manage Regional Growth  Pl f I ti & S t i bl I f t t & Utiliti Downloadable at

Page 9

 Plan for Innovative & Sustainable Infrastructure & Utilities  Promote Planned Communities which produce Quality and Sustainable Neighbourhoods www.iskandarmalaysia.com.my

The Iskandar Malaysia Vision Economic Growth

“To develop Iskandar Malaysia into a strong and sustainable metropolis of international standing” sustainable metropolis of international standing”

Year 2005 Projected (2025)

GDP (RM) 70 billion 325.5 billion 325.5 billion

Year 2005 Projected (2025)

Per capita GDP (RM) 51,765 108,850 108,850 Employment 0.610 million 1.428 million 1.428 million

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Population 1.4 million 3.1 million 3.1 million

Socio Economic Scenario of IM

2005 2025 2025/2005

Population 1,353,200 3,005,815 2.2

• No. of households

317,762 751,454 2.4 GDP (mil RM) 37 641 176 224 4 7 GDP (mil RM) 37,641 176,224 4.7 GDP per capita (RM/capita) 27,817 58,628 2.1 Gross output (mil RM) 121,431 474,129 3.9 Primary industry (mil RM) 1,860 5,375 2.9 Secondary industry (mil RM) 83 502 263 444 3 2 Secondary industry (mil RM) 83,502 263,444 3.2 Tertiary industry (mil RM) 36,069 205,309 5.7 Floor space for commercial (mil m2) 6.8 19.3 2.8 Offices 1.3 1.7 2.9 Shops 5 7 16 3 2 9 Shops 5.7 16.3 2.9 Hospitals & Schools 0.6 1.2 2.1 Passenger transport demand (mil p‐km) 3,816 8,677 2.3

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Iskandar Malaysia: Geographical Area

Senai Senai Skudai Skudai

• Focused Development at 5 Flagships
• 2,217 km2 or 550,000 acres
• 3 times the size of Singapore
• 1 4 million population

Senai Senai – Skudai Skudai (Kulaijaya) (Kulaijaya) Flagship

• 1.4 million population

Johor Bahru Johor Bahru Flagship Flagship Flagship Eastern Gate Development Eastern Gate Development (Pasir Gudang (Pasir Gudang – Tanjong Langsat) Tanjong Langsat) Nusajaya Nusajaya Johor Bahru Johor Bahru City Centre City Centre Western Gate Development Western Gate Development

Singapore

Flagship Western Gate Development Western Gate Development (Port Tanjung Pelepas) (Port Tanjung Pelepas)

Project Progress Update – Flagship A

Upgrading of Komtar (In progress) Johor Johor Bahru Bahru City Centre City Centre

Artist Impression

Transformation of Johor Bahru City Centre (Planning) – Sg. Segget clean up Johor Johor Bahru Bahru City Centre City Centre Heritage Trail (Completed)

Johor Johor Bahru Bahru City Centre City Centre

Sultan Iskandar Complex Johor Johor Bahru Bahru Cit C t Cit C t (Completed) ‐ CIQ City Centre City Centre

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Project Progress Update – Flagship B

Kota Iskandar (Completed) Nusajaya Nusajaya Kota Iskandar (Completed)

Horizon Hills Educity SiLC Kota Iskandar Puteri Harbour Medini East Ledang

Puteri Harbour (In progress) Nusajaya Nusajaya

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Actual Picture

Project Progress Update – Flagship C

• Asia Petroleum Hub

Western Gate Western Gate Development Development

• Port Tanjung Pelepas

Western Gate Western Gate Development Development

March 2009

Development Development

Source: PTP

• One of the fastest growing container ports in the world
• 4 new berths will be added by end 2010 - increasing the port’s

capacity by 3.2mn TEUs to 11.2mn TEUs.

15 MMC Corp, PTP – expansion

• PTP is ranked 18th world busiest container seaport.

Project Progress Update – Flagship D

Eastern Gate Eastern Gate Development Development

• Acerinox (Bahru Stainless Sdn Bhd)

Construction in progress Construction site Tanjung Langsat Area

The main component of the Tanjung Langsat development is the 4200 acre Tanjung Langsat Industrial Complex developed by Johor Corp It designed

Source: Johor Corp, IRDA

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Tanjung Langsat Industrial Complex developed by Johor Corp. It designed for Light, Medium & Heavy Industries.

Project Progress Update – Flagship E

• Senai International Airport – Airside

Development (completed) Senai Senai ‐ Skudai Skudai

Runway extension 446m – 100% Completed

• Senai Hi‐Tech Park

Senai Senai ‐ Skudai Skudai

Source: Senai Airport Terminal Services

• Kulai Cyber City

Senai Senai ‐ Skudai Skudai h i l

• Johor Premium Outlet

Senai Senai ‐ Skudai Skudai

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LCS scenario study using ExSS

E t b g d L b d ti it

Labor participation ratio

Export by goods

Government expenditure

Investment Labor productivity

Labor participation ratio Demographic composition

Taxation and social security Labor demand Population Wage Income Import ratio

Input coefficient matrix

Consumption pattern IO analysis Output by industry Household size Floor area per output

Energy service demand d i i f

Consumption Number of household

Output of commercial i d t

Population

Output of manufacturing i d t

Trip per person Trip distance Modal share

per driving force

Fuel share Energy efficiency household

industry Commercial building floor area

Freight transport demand Passenger transport demand

industry Freight generation per

• utput

Transport distance CO2 emission factor

area

demand demand

Energy demand

Carbon sink

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Modal share

CO2 emission

Methodology developed by Shimada et.al (2006), Gomi et. Al (2007)

Energy Demand By Sector

12,000 Freight transport

Energy demand in IM is projected to increase from

1,442 10,000 12,000 Passenger transport Industry

10,936 10,936

232%

p j 3,286 ktoe (toe: tonne oil equivalent) in 2005 to 10,936 ktoe in 2025 for the BaU case (BaU: business as usual)

790 8,000 (ktoe) . y

5 915 5 915 5 915 5 915

(BaU: business as usual)

6,635 253 834 6,000 y demand (

5,915 5,915 5,915 5,915

Industry is expected to be 6,635 ktoe and will maintain the largest share of 61%.

3,494 359 572 2 000 4,000 Energ

3,286 3,286

g

240 1,091 649 382 978 685 1,733 2,000

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2005 2025 BaU 2025 CM

12,000 Coal

Energy Demand by Energy Sources

1,844 10,000 Hydro power Solar & wind power Biomass

Increase in demand for

3 854 61 8,000 (ktoe) . Biomass Natural gas Petroleum

Increase in demand for natural gas (3.2 times) the consumption in 2005.

3,854 193 33 964 6,000 gy demand

Energy sources such as bi l d

4 978 1 209 3,694 447 60 289 4,000 Energ

biomass, solar and wind power will be newly introduced for primary energy in 2025

1,729 4,978 788 1,209 , 2,000

primary energy in 2025 CM case.

2005 2025 BaU 2025 CM

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GHG Emissions in IM are projected to increase from

GHG Emission By Sector

1 672 4,070 45,000 50,000 Freight transport Passenger transport I d t

45,484 45,484

projected to increase from 12,552 ktoe CO2 (2005) to 45,484 ktoe CO2 (2025 BaU)

1,672 35,000 40,000 O2) . Industry Commercial

Industry Sector will increase 4.1 times in total

24,832 25,000 30,000 ssions (ktC

19,589 19,589 19,589 19,589

increase 4.1 times in total as compared to 2004 in GHG emission . (54%of total GHG emission in )

7 195 10,897 447 1,615 1,481 15,000 20,000 GHG emis

12,552 12,552

2025 BaU) GHG emissions per capital

1,468 7,715 2,972 2,419 7,195 3,802 6,035 , 1,015 , 5,000 10,000

GHG emissions per capital : 9.3 tonnes of CO2 /capita (2005) to 15.1 tonnes /capita (2025 BaU ), with

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1,468 2005 2025 BaU 2025 CM

CM will be reduced to 6.5 tonnes of CO2/capita.

Potential Mitigation in IM

50,000 5521 623 40,000 45,000 , ) Transport demand management tions 10831 777 3510 30,000 35,000

• ns (kt-CO2)

Fuel shifting Efficiency improvement (buildings) ssion Reduct

57% 262%

45483 19162 4463 20,000 25,000

• ns/reductio

Efficiency improvement (transport) Efficiency improvement (industry) Emis

5 % 52%

12552 19162 5 000 10,000 15,000 GHG emissio Efficiency improvement (power sector) GHG emissions 5,000 2005 2025 BaU 2025 CM G

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Buildings

Low Carbon Cities Policy Package

• Environmental performance standard

and evaluation of buildings

• Adjustment of tax rate of fixed asset

tax

• Low interest loans to investment to

ffi i t b ildi

• Environmental performance standard
• f equipments
• Environmental labeling
• Education and information service
• Green purchasing policy
• Subsidy to introduce

photovoltaic power generation system energy efficient buildings p g p y Environmental performance

Transport & Land use Industry

• Urban planning
• Transport planning
• Tax rate adjustment to fixed asset
• Investment to public transport
• Environmental performance

standard of vehicles

• Tax rate adjustment to

energy efficient vehicles

• Promotion of bio fuel
• Subsidy to investment to energy

efficient equipments

• Promotion of technology transfer
• Incentive to introduce energy efficient

equipments & buildings

• Controlling urban growth &

choice of transport mode

Energy efficiency i t Lowering CO2 i t it Transport d d t l

q p g

• Incentive to introduce renewable energy

choice of transport mode

Mitigation of GHG emissions from Iskandar Malaysia

improvement intensity demand control

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Preliminary findings Mitigation Measures

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SATREPS PROJECT

• Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development -
• Pr

Project Title:

• ject Title:

De Development of lopment of Lo Low Carbon Socie w Carbon Society Scenarios y Scenarios f for r Asian R Asian Regions gions

• Pr

Proj

• jec

ect P Period: Fiv riod: Five year ars (20 s (2011～20 2015) 15)

• Pr

Project Area:

• ject Area: Iskandar De

Iskandar Development R lopment Region (IM), Mala gion (IM), Malaysia ysia

• Sponsored b

Sponsored by JICA (Mala JICA (Malaysian side) and sian side) and JST(Japanese side) JST(Japanese side)

• Total fund

tal fund suppor supported b ed by JIC JICA : : 190 190 Millio Million JY n JY Total fund tal fund suppor supported b ed by JIC JICA : : 190 190 Millio Million JY n JY

• Pr

Projec

• ject Pur

Purpose:

• se:

De Develop Me lop Methodol thodology f y for r creati creating Lo ng Low-Ca Carbon Soci rbon Society (L y (LCS CS) scenari scenarios and and applied t applied to Isk Iskandar De ndar Development R lopment Region gion (IM) (IM), as , as well as ll as other regions in

• ther regions in Mala

Malaysia, and ysia, and the the resear research findings are findings are disseminat disseminated t ed to Asian Countries. Asian Countries.

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RESEARCH OUTPUT AND RESEARCH OUTPUT AND ACTIVITIES

1.Methodology to create LCS scenarios which is et odo ogy to c eate CS sce a os c s appropriate for Malaysia. 2 LCS scenarios are created and utilized for policy 2.LCS scenarios are created and utilized for policy development in Iskandar Malaysia (IM). 3.Co-benefit of LCS policies on air pollution and on recycling-based society is quantified in IM. 4.Organizational arrangement of UTM to conduct trainings on LCS scenarios for Malaysia and Asian countries is prepared and a network for LCS in Asia is countries is prepared, and a network for LCS in Asia is established.

IMPLEMENTATION ARRANGEMENT AND OUTPUT OUTPUT

RESEARCH PROJECT TIMELINE 2011-2015

Interim project Evaluation

• Need substantial input to blueprints etc.
• Compiling the the first draft of LCS

roadmap Final project Evaluation

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

ACTIVITY 1: METHODOLOGY

Apply the whole methodology and tools Revising and Improvement Revising and Improvement

ACTIVITY 2: IMPLEMENTATION Design the scenarios and roadmaps Details for Implementation I l i R i i d

e project

IMPLEMENTATION Implementation Revising and Improvement ACTIVITY3: AIR & SWM Detailed basic survey System integration

Wrap up th

AIR & SWM y g Manual development ACTIVITY 4: DISSEMINATION International Expert Workshop once per year International Training Workshop once per year

W

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Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 4 Stage 3

LCS Activities in Malaysia…

Expert Talk Held by JPBD KL

Guided tour around Putrajaya by PJC

Meeting with Vice Chancellor of UTM

LCS UTM team & Japan team members.

Day 1: AIM Training – participants from Japan, China, India, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, South Korea and Taiwan

• Prof. Yuzuru Matsuoka (Head of LCS Project – Kyoto

U; Dr. Junichi Fujino, NIES; Dr. Zainah Ibrahim JPBD R&D; Dr. ... (Executive Director of NIES) and Boyd Joeman IRDA

Members of the LCS IM, Japan Team

LCS UTM Research Workshop – 07 Jan 2011

Env’l Env’l

Implement Implement Comply . Enforce Comply . Enforce i i i i

Planning Planning & & Mngt Mngt Social & Social & Cultural Cultural Dev Dev Com & Com & Industry Industry Planning Planning

Talent Workforce; L Value‐

CDP CDP

Fed Fed P li P li Monitor . Review Monitor . Review

Green Green‐

Dev Dev & Dev & Dev

Low carbon lifestyle added products & services

CDP CDP

Policy Policy

NPP NPP

IRDA’s IRDA’s BPs BPs

Green Green focused focused Agenda Agenda

Integrated Integrated Transport Transport Economic Economic Dev Dev

BPs BPs

LCS LCS

Green Economy TODs

Agenda Agenda

RE & RE &

Modes Infrastructure Corridors Movements

LCS LCS

Economy

DPs DPs

SWM SWM Land Use Land Use Planning Planning RE & RE & Resources Resources

Reuse Recycle Reduce Compost FIT EE blgs & areas Rainwater harvesting Decarbonising

UD Phased Dev & DC

Decarbonising development/ Development Process

Synergy of LCS research and application in Synergy of LCS research and application in

Iskandar Malaysia Iskandar Malaysia

Actions on the Actions on the

Research: Research: Institutions Institutions Academia Academia

Policy Policy (IRDA) (IRDA)

ground: ground: See and Touch See and Touch

LCS LCS BPs BPs

IRDA Blueprints that promote Low Carbon Society

3

IM Vision: “A Strong, Sustainable Metropolis of International Standing”

Essential Mechanisms Essential Mechanisms

Government: Government: Political Will Political Will & & Commitment Commitment

LCS LCS

Awareness Awareness‐ ‐ Raising & Raising &

Funding Funding

LCS LCS

Public Public Involvement Involvement

Funding Funding

Capacity Capacity Capacity Capacity‐ Building Building

IRDA’s expectations from the LCS Project IRDA’s expectations from the LCS Project

H ill th LCS S i h l t d IM’ CO

• How will the LCS Scenarios help to reduce IM’s CO2

emissions between 30‐50% by 2025?

• How do we translate the results from the research

into policies and proposals that can be implemented? REAL SOLUTIONS implemented? REAL SOLUTIONS

• How will the results enhance our blueprints?

Identify GAPS

• CDP Review 2015

CDP Review 2015

Conclusion

1

• LCS Scenario development needs national vision and political/

society commitment and input.

2

• The use of model to quantify this vision into quantifiable variables –

AIM model from NIES and Kyoto University

2

AIM model from NIES and Kyoto University D t ll ti d S t f t i d lli i

3

• Data collection and Support of experts in modelling exercise –

Capacity building

4

• To realize a LCS, IM has to have new and bold policies to

encourage and promote businesses and citizens have to take countermeasures to lower the emissions levels.

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4

countermeasures to lower the emissions levels.

THANK YOU FOR THE ATTENTION.

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