Policy Implementation Policy Implementation - How to develop LCS - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Policy Implementation Policy Implementation - How to develop LCS study How to develop LCS study - - 2050 http://2050.nies.go.jp p g jp Junichi Fujino fuji@nies.go.jp NIES 2008 AIM Training Workshop, Tsukuba 28 Oct,
2050
http://2050.nies.go.jp p g jp
2008 AIM Training Workshop, Tsukuba 28 Oct, 2008
Technology development, socio-economic change projected by historically d Forecasting Reference future ld trend world
Mitigation Technology development
Required P li
e
ntion
Service demand
Policy intervention and Investment
pressur
interven
“Innovation” to realize visions
Long-ter
Back casting
change by changing social behavior, lifestyles and institutions
required intervention policy
mental p
Required
“Vi i ”
rm target ye
Release AIM re
Back-casting Normative target world and measures
Environm
Chec year(2 Chec year(20
R
“Visions” 1.”Target” is tough
2020 2050 2000
ear
e of esult
g
E
cking 015) cking 025)
is tough
50% reductions In the world
Japan Low Carbon Society Scenarios toward 2050
[FY2004-2008, Global Environmental Research Program, MOE] [FY2004 2008, Global Environmental Research Program, MOE]
Study environmental options toward low carbon society in Japan d b d
Green buildings Self-sustained city Decentralized services Eco awareness Effective communication Dematerialization Next generation vehicles Efficient transportation system Advanced logistics
Techno-Socio Innovation study Advisory board： advice to project
Decentralized services Dematerialization Advanced logistics
BaU scenario
E i h
Urban structure IT-society
Development of socio- economic scenarios ion
Transportation system
Reduction Target study
BaU scenario
EE improvement New energy Energy saving Structure change Life-style h
economic scenarios, evaluating counter- measures with social- economic-technology models GHG emissi
1 3 5 Valid Equity Effective
990 000 020 050 010 Intervention scenario
change
GHG reduction target
（eg. 60-80% reduction by 1990 level） Evaluate feasibility of GHG reduction target
Integration Team
Suitable
19 20 20 20 20 Middle-term Target year Loge-term Target year
5 teams 60 Researchers
4
60 Researchers
Propose options of long-term global warming policy
GHG 70% reduction in 2050 Scenario A: Vivid Techno-driven Society
Demand side energy -40% ＋ Low carbonization of primary energy＋ＣＣＳ with moderate cost of technological options as 0.3% of GDP in the year of 2050
Change of activity
Change
・High economic growth, Increase of service demand per household, Increase of office floor (increase) ・Servicizing of industry, Decline in number of households, Increase of public transportation (decrease)
with moderate cost of technological options as 0.3% of GDP in the year of 2050
6 21 6 1 24 10 13
y Reduction
ector
Industry
Reduction of service demand Improvement of energy intensity Improvement of ・Farm products produced and consumed in season
90 13 38 9 7 Improvement o energy intensit
nergy demand se
dential & mmercial
Improvement of carbon intensity Reduction of service demand Improvement of ・Fuel switch from coal and oil to natural gas ・Insulation ・Energy use management (HEMS/BEMS) ・Efficient heat pump air‐conditioner, Efficient water heater, 70% reductio
36 7 28 17
Emission Emission
Improvement of carbon intensity
E tor
ation Resid com
Improvement of energy intensity Improvement of carbon intensity Efficient heat pump air conditioner, Efficient water heater, Efficient lighting equipment ・Development and widespread use of fuel cell ・All‐electric house ・Photovoltaic
77 41 36 CCS
1990 CO2 E 2000 CO2 E
mprovement of arbon intensity f energy supply nergy supply sect
Transporta
Reduction of service demand Improvement of energy intensity ・Advanced land use / Aggregation of urban function ・Modal shift to public transportation service ・Widespread use of motor‐driven vehicle such as electric vehicle and fuel‐cell electric vehicle
CCS
2 Emission
Im ca
E
nergy supply
gy y Improvement of carbon intensity Improvement of ・High efficiency freight vehicle ・Improvement of energy efficiency (train/ship/airplane) ・Fuel mix change to low carbon energy sources such as natural gas, nuclear energy, and renewable energy Carbon Capture Storage 2050 CO
En
Improvement of carbon intensity ・Power generation without CO2 emission ・Hydrogen production without CO2 emission ・Effective use of night power / Electricity storage ・Hydrogen (derived from renewable energy) supply
A Dozen Actions towards Low-Carbon Societies
Residential/commercial sector actions
Press release
Efficiently use of sunlight and energy efficient built environment design. Intelligent buildings. City design requiring short trips and pedestrian (and bicycle) friendly transport, augmented by efficient public transport
Use of Top-runner and Appropriate appliances. Initial cost reduction by rent and release system resulting in improved availability
electricity by large-scale renewables, nuclear power and CCS equipped fossil (and biomass) fired plants Energy supply sector actions resulting in improved availability.
Supply of seasonal and safe low-carbon local and CCS-equipped fossil (and biomass) fired plants
Enhancing local renewables use, such as solar, wind, biomass and others Industrial sector actions foods for local cuisine
renewable buildings materials and products. biomass and others.
free hydrogen- and/or biomass-based energy supply system with required infrastructure
Industry Businesses aiming at creating and
carbon and high value added goods and services system with required infrastructure
Visualizing of energy use and CO2 costs information Cross-sector actions carbon and high value-added goods and services through energy efficient production systems.
Visualizing of energy use and CO2 costs information for smart choices of low carbon goods and service by consumers, and public acknowledgement of such consumers Transportation sector actions
development for building “Low-Carbon Society” and recognizing extraordinary contributions.
Networking seamless logistics systems with supply chain management, using both transportation and ICT infrastructure
http://www.kantei.go.jp/foreign/abespeech/2007/05/24speech_e.html
http://www.energysavingtrust.org.uk/resources/daily_news/climate_change/japanese_pm_outlines_green_fukuda_vision
for this autumn and pledged to cut of 60-80 per cent of greenhouse gas emissions based on current levels by 2050.
p pp g g emissions and issue credits to large firms.
based on of 2005 level, said Mr Fukuda.
developing countries fight global warming, Mr Fukuda said in his speech.
climate change at the July G8 summit in Hokkaido, where world leaders will meet to discuss arrangements for the successor to the Kyoto protocol, which expires in 2012.
consumption and waste.
saying: "We must see the transition to a low-carbon society as an opportunity for new economic growth " growth.
July 7-9 2008, Hokkaido, Japan
(2) Environment and Climate Change (2) Environment and Climate Change (a) Prime Minister Fukuda stated at the beginning that this was a very important summit,
severing its dependence on fossil fuels and addressing challenges including global severing its dependence on fossil fuels and addressing challenges including global warming and resource depletion countries. (b) Long-term Goal With respect to the goal of achieving at least 50% reduction of global emissions by 2050 the G8 leaders agreed to seek to share and adopt it with all Parties to the 2050, the G8 leaders agreed to seek to share and adopt it with all Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. (c) Mid-term Goals In order to achieve absolute emission reductions in all developed nations, G8 leaders agreed to implement ambitious economy-wide mid-term goals agreed to implement ambitious economy-wide mid-term goals. (d) Sectoral Approach It was recognized that sectoral approaches are useful tools for achieving national emission objectives and for reducing GHG emissions. (e) Climate Investment Funds (e) Climate Investment Funds G8 leaders welcomed and supported the establishment of the Climate Investment Funds administered by the World Bank to support the efforts of developing countries, and welcomed commitments from other donors.
T iti i t l b i ti d t bli hi Transitioning to low-carbon societies and establishing an international research network on low-carbon societies
g g , y g current socio-economic structures and transition to low-carbon societies. In so doing there was general recognition of the importance of all the so doing, there was general recognition of the importance of all the countries to have a clear vision of low-carbon societies. Strong support for establishing an international research network of i tit ti i l d i th h l b i ti institutions involved in the research on low-carbon societies was shown by a number of countries, and other countries also expressed their support for the consideration of its establishment.
http://www.env.go.jp/earth/g8/en/img/G8EMM%202008%20Chair'sSummary_Final_.pdf
Chair’s Summary G8 Environment Ministers Meeting Kobe, Japan May 24-26, 2008
A ti t li l b i ti Actions to realize low-carbon societies
their lifestyle, production and consumption patterns, and social y p p p infrastructure in addition to technological innovations. It was recognized that technology transfer and capacity building are necessary to achieve low-carbon societies at the global scale. The necessary to achieve low carbon societies at the global scale. The importance of research and development, information infrastructures and institutional planning was also pointed out. It was highlighted that there is a need to promote further development of technologies that there is a need to promote further development of technologies such as carbon capture and storage and biofuels. Carbon offsetting was also recognized as an effective mechanism that provides a wide range of stakeholders such as citizens companies and range of stakeholders such as citizens, companies, and governments with opportunities to contribute to mitigation actions. It was observed that in shifting toward low-carbon societies, international cooperation on carbon offsets will play an important role.
http://www.env.go.jp/earth/g8/en/img/G8EMM%202008%20Chair'sSummary_Final_.pdf
Megan Stein City of Portland Office of Sustainable Development
We are here! We are here!
CO Reduction Goal: CO2 Reduction Goal:
by 2010 by 2010 Over 100 government actions & community initiatives
R bl E
Internal energy efficiency and renewable energy efforts save the City over $2 7 million annually efforts save the City over $2.7 million annually Biogas generation, representing $500,000 annual savings savings Solar panels, hydroelectric turbines and a small wind turbine
All Diesel = 5% Biodiesel All Gasoline = 10% Ethanol All Gasoline = 10% Ethanol 2010 = 10% Biodiesel
New construction Existing buildings and remodels Special requirements for roofs and re-roof projects
Portland 2010 Goal: 10% below 1990 levels 10% below 1990 levels Emissions level required to stabilize the climate
18,000,000 14 000 000 16,000,000 8,000,000
Business as usual
12,000,000 14,000,000 O2e
Buildings/ electricity
8,000,000 10,000,000 metric tons CO
Buildings/ natural gas
4,000,000 6,000,000 m
Passenger transportation
2,000,000
Commercial transportation Goal
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Establish an investment fund to leverage private Establish an investment fund to leverage private capital to finance comprehensive energy efficiency improvements and clean distributed ti generation Require energy performance ratings for Require energy performance ratings for residential and commercial buildings at time of sale Require all evaluations of land use options to include forecasts of greenhouse gas impacts g g p Make it possible for residents to access key community goods and services within walking community goods and services within walking distance
目標値はそれぞれ
カリフォルニア州
1 1 1.2
2050年 目標値はそれぞれ の地域での基準年 比排出量。
カリフォルニア州 カリフォルニア州 ニューメキシコ州 ニューメキシコ州 コネッチカット州 コネッチカット州 オレゴン州 オレゴン州 ジュネーヴ 広島市 柏
0.9 1 1.1
基準年は地域に よって異なるが、 1990年が多い。
ロンドン チェルトナム ウォキング オレゴン州 ストックホルム ベルリン ミュンヘン 豊中 豊中 横浜 柏 千代田区 東京都 ニューヨーク市
0 6 0.7 0.8
排出量
1990年が多い。
ロンドン ブリストル チェルトナム ウォキング ウォキング レスター ベルリン ベルリン ミュンヘン 豊中 横浜 横浜 広島市
0.4 0.5 0.6
基準年比排
ロンドン ブリストル カリフォルニア州 ニューメキシコ州 オレゴン州 豊中
0 1 0.2 0.3
基
60%～100%削減目標
ストックホルム ジュネーヴ
0.1
1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 目標年 目標年
環境モデル都市プロジェクト（内閣官房地域活性化統合 本部、2008）に提案された温室効果ガス排出削減目標
1.2
応募、
宇都宮市 堺市 高知市 釧路市 帯広市 宇都宮市 太田市 川口市 松戸市 松戸市 流山市 江戸川区 江戸川区 福生市 相模原市 大垣市 多治見市 刈谷市 後 熊本市
1
現可能性、地域の特 色など、五つの選定
宇都宮市 大阪市 富良野市 下川町 洞爺湖町 鹿追町 青森市 飯豊町 太田市 太田市 川口市 柏市 流山市 千代田区 豊島区 調布市 福生市 横浜市 相模原市 上越市 富山市 金沢市 珠洲市 山梨市 各務原市 豊田市 東近江市 京丹後市 岸和田市 出雲市 真庭市 上勝町 高松市 北九州市 長崎市 熊本市 水俣市 日田市 那覇市 うるま市
0.8 目標値
出量 基準により、
て ６自治体（北海道
土浦市 北区 中津川市 札幌市 札幌市 下川町 つくば市 戸田＆白河市 北本市 福生市 横浜市 相模原市 金沢市 山梨市 飯田市 岐阜市 岐阜市 大垣市 静岡市 名古屋市 刈谷市 刈谷市 近江八幡市 高島市 京都市 大阪市 松山市 熊本市 水俣市 鹿児島市 う 市
0.6 基準年比排出目
※
基準年比排出 て、６自治体（北海道 帯広市、北海道下川 町、横浜市、富山市、 北九州市、熊本県水 俣市）
中津川市 釧路市 帯広市 富良野市 下川町 洞爺湖町 飯豊町 土浦市 松戸市 柏市 流山市 千代田区 豊島区 調布市 川崎市 珠洲市 飯田市 各務原市 御嵩町 豊田市 近江八幡市 京都市 吹田市 真庭市 広島市 高松市 松山市 高知市 北九州市 長崎市 熊本市 日田市
0.4
※
基 俣市）、
市」として、東京都千
名古屋市 洞爺湖町 鹿追町 青森市 宇都宮市 太田市 川口市 崎市 上越市 富山市 山梨市 飯田市 岐阜市 多治見市 中津川市 静岡市 近江 幡市 東近江市 京都市 京丹後市 長岡京市 堺市 岸和田市 吹田市 新宮市 出雲市 広島市 上勝町 州市 杵築市 鹿児島市 那覇市 うるま市 けいはんな
0.2
代田区、長野県飯田 市、愛知県豊田市、 京都市、大阪府堺市 高知県梼原町 沖
静岡市 京都市 上勝町
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055
年
目標年 、高知県梼原町、沖 縄県宮古島市を選ん だ。
Th Fi k h h ld The First workshop was held in Tokyo, June14-16, 2006. G8 Gleneagles 2005
Participants from 19 countries;
Participants from 19 countries; Asia: Japan, China, India, Thailand, Taiwan (China) Africa: South Africa, Nigeria Europe: UK France Germany
Europe: UK, France, Germany, Denmark, Spain, Netherlands, Russia Latin America: Brazil, Mexico, Chile North America: US, Canada
The Second workshop was held in London, June13-15, 2007. The Third workshop was held in Japan, Feb13-15, 2008. http://2050.nies.go.jp http://2050.nies.go.jp
Developing and Diffusing Innovations for our good life and LCS through SD
Sustainable Low Sustainable Low‐ ‐Carbon Societies Carbon Societies ( (LCSs LCSs） ）
In 2006, the Governments of Japan and UK established an innovative joint research project with participation from a diverse group of some 20 countries.
Former Japanese Environment Minister Yuriko Koike and UK Ambassador to Japan Sir. Graham Fry announced the launch of the joint research of the announced the launch of the joint research of the Low‐Carbon Societies (LCSs)
A l t ti f i th d f
Developing Visions for a LCS through Sustainable Development
A long‐term perspective focusing on the need for urgent action to reduce CO2 towards 2050. Achievement of LCS will involve the development d d l t f l b t h l i and deployment of low carbon technologies, changes to lifestyles and institution, and need to align with sustainable development.
Tokyo
Sustainable Low Sustainable Low‐ ‐Carbon Societies Carbon Societies ( (LCSs LCSs） ）
In 2006, the Governments of Japan and UK established an innovative joint research project with participation from a diverse group of some 20 countries.
A wide range of stakeholders‐ from government A wide range of stakeholders‐ from government, business, and civil society need to be engaged in finding solutions. A significant share of GHG is due to cities Effective
A significant share of GHG is due to cities. Effective Action can be and is being undertaken.
London Tokyo
Creation of appropriate incentives for business using long‐term policy signals to strengthen carbon pricing. Expanding financial flows, international cooperation in low‐carbon approaches. Building trust between countries and stakeholders
Co‐chairs: Shuzo Nishioka(NIES), Jim Skea(UKERC)
though enhancement of communications is important.
Moriguchi (NIES, Japan)
Wh t th i l i b h i h h t b i
need to be overcome?, and
Governments etc? Governments, etc?
setting standards, for behaviour change?
p , p p p countries can be tackled in the context of behavior change?
Japan)
Kathmandu), Tomoki Ehara (MHIR)
terms of adapting to and mitigating the climate change?
approaches and what advantages do LCS approaches provide to achieve SD?
Sueyoshi (UNDP) Sueyoshi (UNDP)
K Q ti
stimulate investment for LCSs? H d t th i ti t d i d
enhance innovation?
investments happen? investments happen?
LCS sectors
impacts to industry and other sectors impacts to industry and other sectors
(MoEJ, Japan)
transition to LCS?
social systems economic systems infrastructure etc)? social systems, economic systems, infrastructure, etc)?
markets and what policy measures exist to achieve international level playing fields? p y g
Co-chairs – Yuichi Moriguchi, Jeremy Watson Rapporteur – Stephen Cornelius Rapporteur – Stephen Cornelius
Timely and appropriate Behaviour Change
creating enabling frameworks
incentives and penalties and with long-term policy certainty incentives and penalties and with long term policy certainty
governments rather government inaction
responsibility of the others (government / business / i di id l ) individuals)
t d d t h i d l tt ti d
M t
procurement e.g. C40 (energy efficiency purchases for public buildings)
meters & accounting meters & accounting
l i t k
A il bilit f it bl lt ti / h i
transport modal shift
influence behaviours in the medium to long-term
by increased consumption (rebound effect) and switching to more energy intensive alternatives
recycling)
disposal
transition to LCS
level etc)
leapfrogging assistance to develop on a low carbon pathway through appropriate technology transfer, financing and investment, joint venture exemplar projects etc
p p
and government
by national frameworks by national frameworks
action
with differences in, for instance, population, natural , , p p , resource endowment, stage of economic development, as well as political or geological conditions. Therefore, It is not proper to elaborate LCS questions monotonally on is not proper to elaborate LCS questions monotonally on “developing countries”.
q developed and developing countries, in line with their needs, priorities and within the available resources. Th G l b t d th LCS i ith b d ti
framework of “LCS by 2050”, while the Group was fully recognizant of the urgency of climate actions, in g g y , particular, viz. extremely vulnerable countries. The Group also considered that actions towards “by 2050” would contain many early actions even in the near future term” contain many early actions even in the near future term .