Policy Implementation Policy Implementation 脱温暖化 - How to develop LCS study How to develop LCS study - - 2050 http://2050.nies.go.jp p g jp Junichi Fujino （ fuji@nies.go.jp ） NIES 2008 AIM Training Workshop, Tsukuba 28 Oct, 2008
What LCS model can offer? What LCS model should answer? What LCS model should answer?
Forecasting from now and Backcasting Forecasting from now and Backcasting from future prescribed/normative world from future prescribed/normative world Technology development, Reference socio-economic change Forecasting projected by historically future world ld trend d Mitigation Technology ntion Required 3. We need development e Policy P li interven pressur “Innovation” intervention and Investment to realize visions Service demand mental p Required change by changing social Long-ter required behavior, lifestyles 2. We need intervention policy and institutions Environm Back-casting Back casting and measures rm target ye R “Visions” “Vi i ” Normative year(20 year(2 1.”Target” AIM re Release Chec Chec target world g E is tough is tough esult e of cking cking 015) 025) ear 50% reductions 2020 2050 2000 In the world
Japan Low Carbon Society Scenarios toward 2050 [FY2004-2008, Global Environmental Research Program, MOE] [FY2004 2008, Global Environmental Research Program, MOE] Study environmental options toward low carbon society in Japan Advisory board ： d b d advice to project Techno-Socio Innovation study Next generation vehicles Green buildings Eco awareness Efficient transportation system Self-sustained city Effective communication Advanced logistics Advanced logistics Decentralized services Decentralized services Dematerialization Dematerialization Transportation Urban structure IT-society Reduction system Target study Development of socio- ion BaU scenario BaU scenario economic scenarios, economic scenarios E Energy saving i Tech. innovation h GHG emissi Valid evaluating counter- 5 EE improvement measures with social- 3 Structure change economic-technology 1 models New energy Effective Equity -1 Life-style change h GHG reduction target Integration Suitable （ eg. 60-80% reduction by 1990 level ） Intervention Evaluate feasibility of Team scenario GHG reduction target 000 020 050 990 010 20 20 20 20 19 Middle-term Loge-term Target year Target year 5 teams 60 Researchers 60 Researchers Propose options of long-term global warming policy 4
GHG 70% reduction in 2050 Scenario A: Vivid Techno-driven Society Demand side energy -40% ＋ Low carbonization of primary energy ＋ＣＣＳ with moderate cost of technological options as 0.3% of GDP in the year of 2050 with moderate cost of technological options as 0.3% of GDP in the year of 2050 ・ High economic growth, Increase of service demand per household, Increase of office floor (increase) Change of activity ・ Servicizing of industry, Decline in number of households, Change Increase of public transportation (decrease) of activity 6 Reduction of demand Reduction of 6 1 ・ Farm products produced and consumed in season service demand Industry 21 24 Improvement of energy intensity 10 ector of y 13 13 Improvement of Improvement of Improvement o nergy demand se energy intensit ・ Fuel switch from coal and oil to natural gas carbon intensity of end ‐ use 90 38 dential & ・ Insulation Reduction of mmercial service demand ・ Energy use management (HEMS/BEMS) 9 on ・ Efficient heat pump air ‐ conditioner, Efficient water heater, Efficient heat pump air conditioner, Efficient water heater, 7 7 Resid com 70% reductio Improvement of Improvement of Improvement of carbon intensity E Efficient lighting equipment energy intensity of end ‐ use 28 ・ Development and widespread use of fuel cell Improvement of Emission Emission 36 ・ All ‐ electric house carbon intensity 17 ation ・ Photovoltaic tor 1990 CO 2 E 2000 CO 2 E nergy supply sect Transporta mprovement of arbon intensity f energy supply 41 ・ Advanced land use / Aggregation of urban function Reduction of service demand ・ Modal shift to public transportation service 77 ・ Widespread use of motor ‐ driven vehicle such as Improvement of 36 electric vehicle and fuel ‐ cell electric vehicle energy intensity gy y Im ca of CCS CCS E ・ High efficiency freight vehicle Improvement of nergy supply carbon intensity ・ Improvement of energy efficiency (train/ship/airplane) 2 Emission ・ Fuel mix change to low carbon energy sources such as natural gas, nuclear energy, and renewable energy Improvement of Improvement of En 2050 CO ・ Effective use of night power / Electricity storage carbon intensity ・ Hydrogen (derived from renewable energy) supply Carbon Capture ・ Power generation without CO2 emission Storage ・ Hydrogen production without CO2 emission
Press release A Dozen Actions towards Low-Carbon Societies on May 22, 2008 Residential/commercial sector actions 7. Pedestrian Friendly City Design 1. Comfortable and Green Built Environment City design requiring short trips and pedestrian (and Efficiently use of sunlight and energy efficient built bicycle) friendly transport, augmented by efficient environment design. Intelligent buildings. public transport Energy supply sector actions 2. Anytime, Anywhere Appropriate Appliances Use of Top-runner and Appropriate appliances. 8. Low-Carbon Electricity Supplying low carbon Initial cost reduction by rent and release system electricity by large-scale renewables, nuclear power resulting in improved availability resulting in improved availability. and CCS equipped fossil (and biomass) fired plants and CCS-equipped fossil (and biomass) fired plants Industrial sector actions 9. Local Renewable Resources for Local Demand 3. Promoting Seasonal Local Food Enhancing local renewables use, such as solar, wind, Supply of seasonal and safe low-carbon local biomass and others. biomass and others foods for local cuisine 10. Next Generation Fuels Development of carbon 4. Sustainable Building Materials Using local and free hydrogen- and/or biomass-based energy supply renewable buildings materials and products. system with required infrastructure system with required infrastructure 5. Environmentally Enlightened Business and Cross-sector actions Industry Businesses aiming at creating and 11. Labeling to Encourage Smart and Rational Choices operating in low carbon market. Supplying low Visualizing of energy use and CO2 costs information Visualizing of energy use and CO2 costs information carbon and high value-added goods and services carbon and high value added goods and services for smart choices of low carbon goods and service by through energy efficient production systems. consumers, and public acknowledgement of such Transportation sector actions consumers 6. Swift and Smooth Logistics 6. Swift and Smooth Logistics Networking seamless logistics systems with 12. Low-Carbon Society Leadership Human resource supply chain management, using both development for building “Low-Carbon Society” and transportation and ICT infrastructure recognizing extraordinary contributions.
http://www.kantei.go.jp/foreign/abespeech/2007/05/24speech_e.html
http://www.energysavingtrust.org.uk/resources/daily_news/climate_change/japanese_pm_outlines_green_fukuda_vision Japanese PM outlines green Japanese PM outlines green 'Fukuda vision‘ on 9 th June • • Japanese prime minister Yasuo Fukuda on Monday announced a new emissions trading trial set Japanese prime minister Yasuo Fukuda on Monday announced a new emissions trading trial set for this autumn and pledged to cut of 60-80 per cent of greenhouse gas emissions based on current levels by 2050. • Under the new ETS scheme, countries will be able to impose upper limits on greenhouse gas p pp g g emissions and issue credits to large firms. • Japan will also set out a mid-term reduction target of a 14 per cent cut in emissions by 2020 based on of 2005 level, said Mr Fukuda. • Japan will contribute up to $1.2 billion to a new multilateral fund with the US and Britain to help developing countries fight global warming, Mr Fukuda said in his speech. • • Analysts said Tokyo is aiming to boost the perception that it is playing a leading role in fighting Analysts said Tokyo is aiming to boost the perception that it is playing a leading role in fighting climate change at the July G8 summit in Hokkaido, where world leaders will meet to discuss arrangements for the successor to the Kyoto protocol, which expires in 2012. • Japan says it will use more clean energy such as wind and solar and cut overall output, consumption and waste. • Speaking at the Japan National Press Club, the Japanese premier outlined the 'Fukuda Vision', saying: "We must see the transition to a low-carbon society as an opportunity for new economic growth " growth. • Japan is currently the world's fifth largest carbon emitter.
July 7-9 2008, Hokkaido, Japan
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