GHG Emission Reduction Policy Assessment for China -Collaborated - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

ghg emission reduction policy assessment for china
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GHG Emission Reduction Policy Assessment for China -Collaborated - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

GHG Emission Reduction Policy Assessment for China -Collaborated Project on AIM/Emission-China Between NIES and ERI- AIM/Emission China Project Team Prepared for 5th AIM Workshop March 24th to 26th, 2000, NIES, Tsukuba Sectors in AIM/End use of


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SLIDE 1

GHG Emission Reduction Policy Assessment for China

  • Collaborated Project on AIM/Emission-China Between NIES and ERI-

AIM/Emission China Project Team Prepared for 5th AIM Workshop March 24th to 26th, 2000, NIES, Tsukuba

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SLIDE 2

Sectors in AIM/End use of China

Sector Sub-Sector Simulation for 2010 Simulation for 2030 Agriculture v OOO Iron and Steel v v Copper v v Aluminum v v Zinc&Lead v v Cement v v Glass v v Brick v v Lime v v Ammonia v v Ethylene v v Soda Ash v v Caustic Soda v v Fertilizer v OOO Calcium v OOO Paper Making v v Textile v OOO Casting v OOO Heat Treatment v OOO Forging v OOO Cutting v OOO Industry Other Industry v OOO Energy Conversion Power Generation v OOO Refinery v OOO Transport v v Commercial Sector v v Residential Sector Urban Resident v v Rural Resident v v

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SLIDE 3

Classification Technologies (equipm ent) & Steel Coke oven, Sintering machine, Blast furnace, Open hearth furnace (OH), Basic oxygen furnace (BOF), AC-electric arc furnace, DC-electric arc furnace, Ingot casting machine, Continuous casting machine, Continuous casting machine with rolling machine, steel rolling machine, Continuous steel rolling machine, Equipment of coke dry quenching, Equipment

  • f coke wet quenching, Electric power generated with residue pressure on top of blast furnace (TRT), Equipment of

coke oven gas, OH gas and BOF gas recovery, Equipment of co-generation. errous metal Aluminum production with sintering process, Aluminum production with combination process, Aluminum with Bayer, Electrolytic aluminum with upper-insert cell, Electrolytic aluminum with side-insert cell, crude copper production with flash furnace, crude copper production with electric furnace, Blast furnace, Reverberator furnace, Lead smelting- sintering in blast furnace, Lead smelting with closed blast furnace, Zinc smelting with wet method, Zinc smelting with vertical pot method. ing materials Cement: M echanized shaft kiln, Ordinary shaft kiln, W et process kiln, Lepol kiln, Ling dry kiln, Rotary kiln with pro- heater, dry process rotary kiln with pre-calciner, Self-owned electric power generator, Electric power generator with residue heat; Brick & Tile: Hoffman kiln, Tunnel kiln; Lime: Ordinary shaft kiln, M echanized shaft kiln; Glass: Floating process, Vertical process, Colburn process, Smelter. ical industry Equipment of synthetic ammonia production: Converter, Gasification furnace, Gas-making furnace, Synthetic column, Shifting equipment of sulphur removing; Equipment of caustic soda production: Electronic cell with graphite process, Two-stage effects evaporator, Multi-stage effects evaporator, Equipment of rectification, Ion membrane method; Calcium Carbine production: Limestone calciner, Closed carbine furnace, Open carbine furnace, Equipment of residue heat recovery; Soda ash production: Ammonia & salt water preparation, limestone calcining, distillation column, filter; Fertilizer production: Equipment of organic products production, Equipment of residue heat utilization chemical Industry Facilities of atmospheric & vacuum distillation, Facilities of rectification, Facilities of catalyzing & cracking, Facilities

  • f cracking with hydrogen adding, Facilities of delayed coking, Facilities of light carbon cracking, Sequential separator,

Naphtha cracker, de-ethane separator, diesel cracker, de-propane cracker, facilities of residue heat utilization from ethylene.

  • making

Cooker, facilities of distillation, facilities of washing, facilities of bleaching, evaporator, crusher, facilities of de-water, facilities of finishing, facilities of residue heat utilization, facilities of black liquor recovery, Co-generator, Back pressure electric power generator, condensing electric power generator. e Cotton weaving process, Chemical fiber process, W ool weaving & textile process, Silk process, Printing & dyeing process, Garment making, Air conditioner, Lighting, Facilities of space heating. inery Ingot process: Cupola, Electric arc furnace, fan; Forging process: coal-fired pre-heater, Gas-fired pre-heater, Oil-fired pre-heater, Steam hammer, Electric-hydraulic hammer, Pressing machine; Facilities of heat processing: Coal-fired heat processing furnace, Oil-fired heat processing furnace, Gas-fired heat processing furnace, Electric processing furnace; Cutting process: Ordinary cutting, high speed cutting. tion Diesel engine, Electric induct motor ng works Tractor, Other agricultural machine ultural products process Diesel engine, Electric induct motor, processing machine, coal-fired facilities. ry Diesel engine, Electric induct motor. al husbandry Diesel engine, Electric induct motor, Other machines. heating in resident Heat supplying boiler in thermal power plant, Boiler of district heating, Dispersed boiler, Small coal-fired stove, Electric heater, Brick bed linked with stove (Chinese KANG). ng in resident Air conditioner, Electric fan. ng in resident Incandescent lamp, Fluorescent lamp, Kerosene lamp. ng & Hot water in nt Gas burner, bulk coal-fired stove, briquette-fired stove, Kerosene stove, Electric cooker, cow dung-fired stove, firewood-fired stove, methane-fired stove. ic Appliance Television, Cloth washing machine, Refrigerator, others. heating in service sector Heat supplying boiler in the thermal power plant, Boiler of district heating, dispersed boiler, Electric heater. ng System of central air conditioner, Air conditioner, Electric fan. ng Incandescent lamp, fluorescent lamp. ng & Hot water Gas burner, Electric cooker, Hot water pipeline, Coal-fired stove. ic Appliance Duplicating machine, computer, Elevator, others. nger & freight transport Railway (passenger & freight): Steam locomotive, Internal combustion engine locomotive, Electric locomotive.; Highway (passenger & freight): Public diesel vehicle, Public gasoline vehicle, Private vehicle, Large diesel freight truck, Large gasoline vehicle, small freight truck. W aterway (passenger & freight): Ocean-going ship, Coastal ship, Inland ship. Aviation (passenger & freight): Freight airplane, passenger airplane.

Technology List

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SLIDE 4

Energy Services in China

Energy Service 1990 2000 2010

Steel Output 1 1.8 2.1 Copper output 1 1.5 1.7 Aluminum output 1 2.5 3.5 Synthetic ammonia Output 1 1.3 1.8 Fertilizer Output 1 1.2 1.4 Cement Output 1 2.4 2.9 Brick & Tile Output 1 1.3 1.8 Flat glass Output 1 1.9 3.5 Paper and Pulp Output 1 2.1 2.6 Irrigated Land area 1 1.0 1.1 Cultivated land area 1 1.0 1.0 Residential households in the urban 1 1.5 2.0 Urban housing area of each household 1 1.3 1.6 Changes in cooing intensity in Urban Household 1 1.2 1.4 Changes in space heating intensity in Urban Household 1 1.3 1.3 Changes in cooking and hot water intensity in Urban Household 1 1.4 1.6 Changes in illumination of lighting in Urban Household 1 1.1 1.2 Possessing rate of refrigerator in Urban Household 1 1.5 1.9 Possessing rate of clothes washing machine in Urban Household 1 1.1 1.1 Possessing rate of color TV in Urban Household 1 1.4 1.5 Residential household in the rural 1 1.2 1.2 Rural Resident housing area 1 1.0 0.9 Changes in cooling intensity in Rural Household 1 1.3 1.5 Changes in space heating intensity in Rural Household 1 1.2 1.2 Changes in cooking intensity in Rural Household 1 1.2 1.3 Changes in illumination of lighting in Rural Household 1 1.1 1.2 Possessing rate of refrigerator in Rural Household 1 1.4 4.3 Possessing rate of clothes washing machine in Rural Household 1 1.3 1.5 Possessing rate of TV in Rural Household 1 1.2 1.4 Changes in intensity of space heating in service sector Changes in intensity of space cooling in service sector Changes in illumination requirement Changes in electric power consumed by duplicating machine Changes in electric power consumed by computer Changes in electric power consumed by elevator Changes in electric power consumed by other electric appliance 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.2 1.25 1.10 1.10 1.20 1.05 1.10 1.36 1.35 1.20 1.15 1.25 1.10 1.20 Traffic volume of Railway Freight Transport 1 1.5 1.9 Traffic volume of Railway Passenger Transport 1 1.8 2.4 Traffic volume of Aviation(freight transport) 1 11.0 53.1 Traffic volume of Aviation(passenger transport) 1 11.0 52.6 Traffic volume of private car 1 19.8 272.4 Traffic volume of Small truck 1 5.1 9.2 Traffic volume of Large truck 1 1.7 2.9

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Case definition Case Technology Selection Countermeasures Frozen Efficiency (Frozen) No No Baseline (MARKET) Yes No Economic Instrument (Policy) Yes Carbon Tax and Subsidy

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Medium-term emission scenarios: Results

CO 2 em i ssi ons i n Chi na, AI M / Chi na

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Year M t - C

Technol ogy Fr ozen M ar ket Pol i cy

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SLIDE 7

CO2 Emission by sectors

CO2 emission by sectors

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Agricult Industry Transport Service Resident- City Resident- Rural

Sector Million ton-C Frozen Market Policy

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SLIDE 8

Integrated Environment Policy Assessment: Local air pollution

SO2 emission Forecast in China

10 20 30 40 1990 2000 2010

Year Million tons

Frozen Market Policy

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SLIDE 9

SO2 emission by sectors

SO2 emissions by sectors

5 10 15 20 25 30

Agricult Industry Transport Service Resident- City Resident- Rural

Sector Million ton SO

2

Frozen Market Policy

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SLIDE 10

Regional Environment Policy Assessment: Dalian

Economic Growth Model (MERGE-MACRO) Energy Model (MERGE-ETA)

China Top-Down Model AIM/China Model

Energy Efficiency Improvement

CO2 Emission SO2 Emission

AEEI

CO2 Emission Limitation

Dalian Module

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SLIDE 11

Regional Environment Policy Assessment: Dalian

CO2 Emission in Dalian by AIM

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 1990 2000 2010 Year Million Ton-C CMP Market Policy

SO2 Emission in Dalian by AIM

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 1990 2000 2010 Year kTon-SO2 CMP Market Policy

GDP Loss in Dalian

  • 3.0%
  • 2.0%
  • 1.0%

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 1990 2000 2010 2020 Year % P

  • licy-1

P

  • licy-2

S O 2 Em is s ion Re duc tion by S e c tors 0.00 100.00 200.00 300.00 Indus try Trans port Commerc e Urban Rural Sectors Kto n S O2 CO 2 Em is s ion by S e c tors 2 4 6 8 In d u s try Tra n s p o rt C o m m e rce U rb a n R u ra l Sector M illion Tons Ca rbon

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SLIDE 12

Model Linkage AIM/Emission China: Bottom-up SGM-China: Top-down, collaborated from 1992

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Sectors in SGM-CHINA

SGM 97 SGM 2000

1 Agriculture 1 Other Agriculture 15 Food Processing 2 Everything Else 2 Everything Else 16 Other Industry 3 Oil Production 3 Oil Production 17 Passenger Transport 4 Gas Production 4 Gas Production Automobile 5 Coal Production 5 Coal Production Railway 6 Biomass 6 Coal Products Sea 7 Nuclear Fuel 7 Biomass Air 8 Electricity Production 8 Electricity Production 18 Freight Transport Oil-Fired Oil-Fired Truck Gas-Fired Gas-Fired Railway Coal-Fired Coal-Fired Sea Nuclear Nuclear Air Hydro Hydro 19 Residential Building Energy Services 9 Oil Refining 9 Oil Refining 20 Commercial Building Energy Services 10 Gas Distribution 10 Gas Distribution 21 Grains and Oil Crops 11 Paper and Pulp 22 Animal Products 12 Chemicals 23 Forestry 13 Cement 14 Primary Metals

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China Carbon Emissions

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Million Metric Tons

  • f Carbon

Reference $10 Tax $20 Tax $30 Tax $40 Tax $50 Tax

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SLIDE 15

CO2 Emission from Energy Use

2 4 6

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2120

Year GtC

A1B A1C A1G&O A1T A2 B1 B2

IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios(SRES)

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SLIDE 16

SO2 Emission from Energy Use, China

10 20 30 40 50 60

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2120

Year MtC

A1B A1C A1G&O A1T A2 B1 B2

IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios(SRES)

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SLIDE 17

CH4 Emission of China

20 40 60 80

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2120

Year Mt Ch4

A1B A1C A1G&O A1T A2 B1 B2

IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios(SRES)

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SLIDE 18

CO Emission of China

200 400 600 800 1000

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2120

Year Mt CO

A1B A1C A1G&O A1T A2 B1 B2

IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios(SRES)

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SLIDE 19

N2O Emission of China

0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2120

Year Mt N2O

A1B A1C A1G&O A1T A2 B1 B2

IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios(SRES)

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SLIDE 20

NOx Emission of China

5 10 15

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2120

Year Mt NOx

A1B A1C A1G&O A1T A2 B1 B2

IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios(SRES)