New Activities of Emission Modeling New Activities of Emission - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
New Activities of Emission Modeling New Activities of Emission Modeling Integration of Climate Change Policy & Integration of Climate Change Policy & Solid Waste Treatment Policy Solid Waste Treatment Policy Toshihiko MASUI National
National Institute for Environmental Studies 6th AIM International Workshop NIES 27-28 March, 2001
Analysis using dynamic optimization model (EJOR; 15 sectors & 11 wastes)
Construction of recursive model (IGES; 32 sectors & 18 wastes)
Preliminary Analysis on Policy (JSCC; 33sectors & 18 wastes)
⇒Future directions Introduction of environmental-economic linkage model end-use module economic module material balance module Introduction of recursive economic model and its preliminary results Introduction of modification of economic model and its analysis Activities on AIM Workshop
– Pollutant is regarded as “bads bads”
– CO2 Emissions – Final Disposal of Solid Wastes
Flow of goods see “commodities” in the model Activity see “sectors” in the model
PTG UTL House- hold ACT(V) production PK PL POH PP(V,P) PM(H,V) PENE(V,”pro”) PY(U) PIWM PMWM RED(J,P) pollutant self management PA(P) PX(H) PXE(EN) PM(H,J) PENE(J,P) PZ PEK(P) PL SWS(F) sewage service activity PS(F) PM(H,”sew”) PENE(“sew”,”pro”) PP(“sew”,P) PEK(“sew”) PL PK POH IWM(W,WMW) industrial waste management activity PX(H) PM(H,”iwm”) PENE(“iwm”,”pro”) PP(“iwm”,P) PEK(“w_i”) PL PK POH PZ PIW(W,WMW) PXE(EN) MWM(W,WMW) municipal waste management activity PX(H) PM(H,”mwm”) PENE(“mwm”,”pro”) PP(“mwm”,P) PEK(“w_m”) PL PK POH PZ PMW(W,WMW) PXE(EN) IWS(W,WMW) PWIX(W) MWS(W,WMW) PWMX(W) IWX(W) MWX(W) PWI(W) PY(U) PWM(W) PY(U) MWG(J) IWG(J) PW(J,”w_m”) PW(J,”w_i”) EXD(U) ABR PEX(U) PDM(U) PIM(I) MRPA(J,P) self management PP(J,P) MRPS(J,F) PP(J,F) MRPE(J,P) discharge into env. PEV(P) PP(J,P) MRPW(J,S) PP(J,S) PW(J,S) PK PL PEK(P) PZ PCARB PEV(P) PDM(U) INV(U) PDM(U) PX(U) PIM(U) PINV(U) CAPF PCAP INFR(IVP) PSI(IVP) ECPF1(P) ECPF２ (P) PECP(P) PGI(U) GI(U) PDM(U) PX(U) PIM(U) CON(I) PDM(U) PX(I) PIM(I) PC(I) HOUSE PCON PENEH COH PDM(U) PIM(U) POH PS(F) PECH(EN) IOM(H,J) PDM(H) PIM(H) PM(H,J) PX(H) EAGG1(EN) EAGG2(EN) EAGG3(EN) PE(EN) PDM(EN) PIM(EN) PXE(EN) CEM(EN,J,D) CEMH(EN) PEC(EN,J,D) PECH(EN) PCARB PCARB EAH EAG(J,D) PENE(J,D) PENEH GWS HSS PWM(W) PS(F) PGS PGW HWS GSS PWM(W) PS(F) PDM(“mwm”) PDM(“sew”) PDM(“mwm”) PDM(“sew”) PDM(U) PE(EN) PE(EN) PE(EN) PE(EN) PCAP PSI(IVP) PECP(P) PGI(U) PTG PCON PDM(U) PIM(U) PGW PGS PE(EN)Flow of goods see “commodities” in the model Activity see “sectors” in the model
Household Production Activities Including activities for env. preservation Market Integration of recycled commodities and
capital labor energy inputs for pollution management
mediate inputs solid waste household investment final consumption resource input environmental industry disposal recycling waste treatment resource input final disposal CO2 environmental investment intermediate management policy policy policy policy policy policy production activity market policy
ID contents ID contents AGR agriculture, forestry and fisheries WTR collection, purification and distribution of water MIN mining SAL wholesale and retail trade FOD manufacture of food FIN finance and insurance TEX manufacture of textile mill products EST real estate TRS transportation and communications SRV services CHM manufacture of chemical and allied products GOV government service NPS non-profit institution services SEW sewage service FMT manufacture of fabricated metal products MWM municipal waste treatment service MCH manufacture of general machinery IWM industrial waste treatment service COL coal mining and manufacture of coal products OIL crude oil production and manufacture of petroleum TRE manufacture of transportation equipment GAS natural gas production and manufacture of gas THE* thermal power generation HYD* hydro power generation OTH miscellaneous manufacturing industries NUC* nuclear power generation CNS construction ELE** electricity *: only sector, and **: only commodity. NMM manufacture of ceramic, stone, and clay products EMC manufacture of equipment for environmental preservation PLP manufacture of lumber, wood products, pulp, paper and paper products BMT manufacture of iron, steel, non-ferrous metals and products ELM manufacture of electrical machinery, equipment and supplies PRI manufacture of precision instruments and machinery
Contents ASH ash SLD sludge WOL slush, waste oil WAC waste acid WAL waste alkali WPL * waste plastics WPP * waste paper WWD * waste wood WTX * waste fiber and textile WAP * animal and plants wastes WRB * waste rubber SCM * metal trash, scrap metal WGC * waste glass SLG slag WCT construction and demolition waste DST dust, soot EXC animal excrement CRC animal carcass ID *: category of municipal waste.
– Revision of Database
Exogenous ⇒ Change by New Capital Formation
Database in 1995 Input-Output Table Energy Balance Table Waste Generation Table ・ ・ ・ Calculation in 1995 Parameters Calculation in 1996 Revision of parameters based on calculated new capital stock share Revision of parameters based on calculated new capital stock share Calculation in 1997 ... Scenarios *Efficiency of new capital *Change of preference *Environmental constraints *…
goods & service m activity intermediate goods 1 energy production capital labor pollution 1 value added intermediate goods n composed intermediate goods & service … input for pollution management pollution p … goods & service 1 … σ=0 σ=1 σ=0 σ=0 σ=0 electricity fossil fuel 1 fossil fuel CO2 emission (environmental resource) fossil fuel e … composed fossil fuel σ=0 σ=0 σ=0 produced recycled σ=0 σ：elasticity of substitution environmental capital labor energy intermediate goods σ=0 self management contract management discharge (environmental resource) σ=∞ Share of energy inputs depends on the diffusion
Environmental industries are disaggregated for detailed analysis.
Quantity of solid waste generation, management, disposal, and recycle
Including not only environmental investment but also energy, labor, and
This matrix should be prepared when joint products*1 are modeled.
*1 joint products: technologically inseparable products ex. town gas and coke
Intermediate Demand Final Demand Goods A Goods B Goods Z Consumption Expenditure Fixed Capital Formation Export Import Output Goods A Goods B Goods Z Intermediate Input Wage Value Added Operating Surplus Indirect Tax
Depreciation Output XAB XBB XZB WB SB TB DB YB XBA XBZ CB FCB EXB IMB YB … … … :
Intermediate input
produce Good Z YB=ΣiXiB+WB+SB+TB+DB YB=ΣoXBo+CB+FCB+EXB-IMB Environmental equipment, sewage, waste management service and so on are disaggregated for detailed analysis.
Fixed Capital Formation for Environment Preservation
Environmental Investment
Energy Type Energy 1 Energy 2 Energy e Indigenous Production Imports Primary Energy Petroleum Refineries Transfer Electricity : … : Total Sector A Final Consumption Sector B : Residential (Household)
Sector classification is the same as that in IO table. Energy balance table is used for estimation of energy related pollutant generation such CO2, SOx. Energy type is at least classified into energy goods in IO table.
Sector A
Industrial Sector Sector B Sector Z Household Generation Self Reduction Emission Pollutant a GBa SRBa EBa SRAa SRZa SRHa Contract Reduction … … CRBa GZa GHa … CRZa CRHa … EZa EHa … GAa CRAa EAa Generation Self Reduction Emission Pollutant p GBp SRBp EBp SRAp SRZp SRHp Contract Reduction … CRBp GZp GHp … CRZp CRHp … EZp EHp … GAp CRAp EAp Total SRTOTa GTOTa CRTOTa ETOTa SRTOTp GTOTp CRTOTp ETOTp … … … … … … …
GTOTp=ΣiGip+GHp Gip=SRip+CRip+Eip Treated pollutants depend on the analysis. To the environment Sector classification is the same as that in IO table.
Generation
Direct Reuse Intermediate Management Total Reuse Solid Waste a Solid Waste b Solid Waste s Solid Waste DRb WGb WMb TRb : Total Final Disposal TDb
WGs=DRs+DDs++WMs Treated solid wastes depend on the analysis. To the environment (Final disposal site)
Direct Final Disposal DDb Waste Management Reduction Reuse Final Disposal MZb MDb MRb DRs WGs WMs TRb TDb DDs MZs MDs MRs
WMs=WMs+MRs+MDs+ TRs=DRs+MRs TRs=DRs+MRs To the market (Recycled goods) From industry & household
Sectors Sector A Production Total Goods A Goods B Goods Z Intermediate Input Wage Value Added Operating Surplus Indirect Tax
Depreciation Output XAB XBB XZB WB SB TB DB YB XBA … … … : … … … … … … … Sector B : … Pollutant a Sector Z XBZ Pollutant p XABY XBBY XZBY WBY SBY TBY DBY YBY : XABa XBBa XZBa WBa SBa TBa DBa YBa : XABp XBBp XZBp WBp SBp TBp DBp YBp :
Xio=ΣpXiop+XioY Output of pollutant sub sector is equal to the quantity
YBp=ΣiXiBp+WBp+SBp+TBp+DBp Each sector is disaggregated into sub sectors such as production and pollutant self management.
Commodities Commodity A Commodity B Commodity Z Sector A Sector B Sector Z Sectors Total output YAB YBB YZB YB YBA YBZ … … … : Total output QB
Quantity of commodity Z produced by Sector B. QB=ΣcYBc YB=ΣaYaB YB, total output of commodity B, is equal to the total of IO table. By using IO table (commodities x commodity) and make matrix, U Matrix (matrix on commodity input by kind of economic activity) is calculated based on the commodity technology, which assumes that each commodity has its typical input structure, regardless of which industry is the producer.
Recycled paper, low emissions vehicle, and environmental investment for waste management
Increase of reused material input share
Sewage sludge treatment Environmental constraints
CO2 constraint: Kyoto Target (CO2 emissions in 2010/1990 ⇒ 6 % reduction) Final disposal site: Government Target (Quantity of final disposal in 2010/1996 ⇒ 50% reduction)
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2005 2010 Year billion yen at 1990 price A)-1 Recycled paper A)-2 Low emission vehicle A)-3 Paper + vehicle B) Env. investment
3 2005 2010 Year %
A)-1 Recycled paper A)-2 Low emission vehicle A)-3 Paper + vehicle B) Env. investment
1 2 3 2005 2010 Year % A)-1 Recycled paper A)-2 Low emission vehicle A)-3 Paper + vehicle B) Env. investment
–
Targets of material reuse by government and business
–
Uncertainty of recycling activities –collection cost, additional cost, …
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Background: Parameter modification by technology change
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