Effects of CO Emission Targets Effects of CO 2 Emission Targets in - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The 13th International AIM Workshop Tsukuba, February 13-15, 2008 Emission Inventory and Modeling Applications:

Effects of CO Emission Targets Effects of CO2 Emission Targets in Thailand

Ram M. Shr e stha and Shr e e kar Pr adhan

Asian Institute of T e c hnology Asian Institute of T e c hnology T hailand

Email: ram@ait.ac.th Email: ram@ait.ac.th

Thailand Model: Base Case

Base Case assumptions:

• Hydro Import:
• Hydro Import:

– 4000 ktoe (Assumption: 21 GW of hydropower electricity is available as electricity import in the base case by 2050) y p y )

• Nuclear will be introduced by 2020:

– 2500 ktoe (4000 MW)

• Nuclear power generation will be available to the

maximum of

– 20,000 ktoe by 2050

• Biodiesel (B10) will be available up to

40 000 kt b b 2050 – 40,000 ktoe by by 2050

• Gasohol (E10) will be available up to

20 000 ktoe by 2050 – 20,000 ktoe by 2050.

Energy Supply and Demand during 2000 2050 during 2000-2050

Total Primary Energy Supply 600 300 400 500 600 toe Renewables and others Hydro Biomass Nuclear Nat gas

• 100

200 300 Mt g Coal Oil

• 2000

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Final Energy Demand 400 200 250 300 350 toe Agriculture Residential Commercial Transport Industrial 50 100 150 200 Mt Industrial 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

CO2 emission

1400 1000 1200 1400 Base Case 15% CO2 Target 600 800 1000 MtCO2

15% CO2 target

200 400 600 M 200 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

• 15% CO2 target introduced from 2015

2 7 billi tCO ld b d d d i 2000 2050

• 2.7 billion tCO2 would be reduced during 2000-2050

(10%) and 186 billion tCO2 in year 2050 (15%).

CO2 emission per capita in Base Case during 2000-2050

Base Case 16 18 20 22 a USA Australia Canada 8 10 12 14 tCO2 per capita Japan Singapore

• 2

4 6 t 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Sectoral CO2 emission in the Base case Base case

1400 Agriculture R id ti l Agriculture 1000 1200 Residential Commercial Transport Power Industrial Residential Agriculture 600 800

MtCO2

Power Transport Commercial 400 600 Industrial 200

• Industrial, Transport and Power sectors together account

for 94% share in CO2 emission

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

for 94% share in CO2 emission.

• Residential, Commercial and Agriculture sectors together

account for 6% share in CO2 emission

Sectoral shares in CO2 emission Secto a s a es CO2 e ss o

Sectoral Share in CO2 emission

90% 100% 70% 80% 90%

Residential Commercial A i lt

40% 50% 60% % Share

Agriculture Industrial Transport Power

10% 20% 30% 0% 2000 2050 2050 2000-2050 2000-2050 Base case Base case 15% CO2 Target Base case 15% CO2 Target

• The power sector would achieve the largest CO2 emission reduction

(73%) followed by Transport sector (15%) and Industrial sector (12%) (73%) followed by Transport sector (15%) and Industrial sector (12%).

Technology-mix in Power Generation

Shares of different technologies in Power Generation

70% 80% 90% 100% Nuclear Renewables 30% 40% 50% 60% % share Hydro Conventional Cogeneration Combined Cycle 0% 10% 20% 30% CCS IGCC and PFBC 2050 2050 2000-2050 2000-2050 Base Case 15% CO2 Target Base Case 15% CO2 Target

CO2 target would (during 2000-2050) – introduce CCS based coal fired power generation (188 Mtoe). – reduce the shares of IGCC, PFBC and Cogeneration (150 Mtoe). – increase the levels of of combined cycle power generation (130 Mtoe) d h l l f i l l d il b d i (69 M ) – decrease the levels of conventional coal and oil based power generation (69 Mtoe). – increase Hydro based power generation (24 Mtoe).

Changes in Power Supply Technology under 15% CO Target Technology under 15% CO2 Target

Increase from Base Case 118.4 130.4 100 150 24.2 18.9 0.3

• 50

CCS IGCC and Cogeneration Combined Conventional Hydro Biomass Renewables Nuclear Mtoe

• 55.1
• 68.7
• 2.2

(100) (50) PFBC Cycle (Conventional and IGCC)

• 177.6

(200) (150)

15% CO2 target would require (during 2000-2050) – CCS based coal fired power generation (188 Mtoe). – Combined cycle power generation (130 Mtoe) Combined cycle power generation (130 Mtoe) – Hydro based power generation (24 Mtoe). – Biomass (18.9 Mtoe)

Final Energy Demand under 15% CO R d i T 15% CO2 Reduction Target

2% 2% 1% 1% 4% 100% 6% 11% 12% 10% 10% 16% 4% 4% 6% 7% 4% 80% 90% 100% 39% 40% 39% 39% 38% 50% 60% 70% hare Agriculture Residential Commercial 30% 40% 50% % S Commercial Transport Industrial 35% 43% 44% 43% 43% 0% 10% 20% 2000 2050 2050 2000-2050 2000-2050 Base Case Base Case 15% CO2 Target Base Case 15% CO2 Target

• Not significant changes under 15% CO2 target
• Industrial and Transport sector would experience a small decrease in energy

demand.

Final Energy Demand under 15% CO 15% CO2 target

10000 8000 9000 10000 Industrial Transport Commercial Residential Agriculture

8637 8380

5000 6000 7000 toe 3000 4000 5000 Mt 1000 2000 Base Case 15% CO2 Target

• Industrial (108 Mtoe) and Transport sector (159 Mtoe) final
• Industrial (108 Mtoe) and Transport sector (159 Mtoe) final

energy demand would slightly decline.

Share of technologies in the transport sector the transport sector

90% 100% Gasohol 60% 70% 80% 90% are Gasohol Electric Biodiesel 20% 30% 40% 50% % Sha Biodiesel Efficient vehicles H b id 0% 10% 20% 2000 2050 2050 2000-2050 2000-2050 Hybrid Fuel Cell

• Efficient gasoline/diesel vehicles (30%) hybrid vehicles (24%)

Base Case Base Case 15% CO2 Target Base Case 15% CO2 Target Conventional

• Efficient gasoline/diesel vehicles (30%), hybrid vehicles (24%)

would have a major share in the base case followed by bio-diesel (15%) and Gasohol (3%).

• 15% CO2 target would increase the share of biodiesel (by 4%),

gasohol vehicles (3%) and hybrid vehicles (3%).

NOx emission under 15% CO2 target

Emission of NOx pollutants

6 7

Base Case

4 5 6

• n tons

15% CO2 Target

1 2 3 Millio 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

• 7 million ton of NOx is reduced during 2000-2050.

SOx emission under 15% CO2 target

Emission of SOx pollutants

9 10

Base Case

5 6 7 8

• n tons

15% CO2 Target

1 2 3 4 Millio 1 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

• 40 million ton of SOx is reduced during 2000-2050.

Co-benefits of 15% CO2 target

• Power sector would

achieve the largest

Reduction in NOx and SOx 30 NOx

achieve the largest NOx emission reduction followed by the industrial

15 20 25 n tons NOx SOx

by the industrial sector.

• In transport
• 5

10 Million

In transport, 0.4 million ton of NOx would be increased.

(5) Agriculture Commercial Power Industrial Residential Transport Net reduction in NOx and SOx pollutants 50

increased.

20 30 40 50

• n tons

Transport Agriculture Residential Commercial Power Industrial

41 Million tons

• Industrial Sector

would achieve the

(10)

• 10

NOx SOx Millio Industrial

7 Million tons

largest SOx emission reduction followed by the d t t power and transport sector.

Energy Import Dependency under 15% CO2 target

Enegy Import Dependency under 15 % CO2 target

75% 80% Base Case 15% CO2 Target 60% 65% 70% % g 50% 55% 60% % 40% 45% 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

• Energy import dependency reduces by 2% during 2000-2050
• The same would reduce by 4% in year 2050

The same would reduce by 4% in year 2050.

Concluding Remarks

T hi t t f 15% d ti i CO

• To achieve a target of 15% reduction in CO2

emission,

CCS d bi d l t h l i th – CCS and combined cycle technology in the power sector would play a major role. – Renewable energy would not be contributing Renewable energy would not be contributing significantly in CO2 reduction in the power sector. – In transport sector, bio-diesel, gasohol and hybrid vehicles would have significant role in emission reduction. The results would be affected if modal shift to – The results would be affected if modal shift to railways and other mass transport systems are considered.

Thank you Thank you