CA CAMS MS EMISSION EMISSION INV INVENT ENTOR ORY Latest - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

CA CAMS MS EMISSION EMISSION INV INVENT ENTOR ORY

Latest developments and plans | Jeroen Kuenen et al.

OUTL OUTLINE INE

Introduction Methodology Results Data availability What’s coming next

2 | CAMS emission inventory 08 October 2019

CAMS CAMS EMISSION EMISSION INVENT INVENTOR ORY

Update and extension of older TNO_MACC inventories European wide emission inventory with consistent spatial distribution, developed in support of air quality modelling efforts Multiple versions available V1 (latest: v1.1): single year 2015 (but improved version V2) V2 (latest: v2.2.1): time series 2000-2015 V3 (latest: v3.1): single year 2016 Default profiles (temporal, vertical) and PM/VOC splits available also Each version has separately a file for Air Pollutants (AP) but also Greenhouse Gases (GHG) in support of GHG/co-emitted species modelling All is available for download from ECCAD website (https://eccad.aeris-data.fr)

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CAMS CAMS EMISSIONS: EMISSIONS: METHOD METHODOL OLOGY GY

4 | CAMS emission inventory

Official reported emissions (CEIP/UNFCCC) GAINS & EDGAR emission datasets TNO internal estimates CAMS 81 emissions by subsector CAMS 81 regional emission product Spatial proxies

• Small combustion
• Inland shipping
• Agricultural waste burning
• Etc.

~ 250 subsectors, based on NFR with main fuel splits

• Population
• Road transport
• Animal densities
• E-PRTR, etc. etc.

Shipping grids

(FMI)

08 October 2019

CA CAMS MS-REG REG-V2 V2: : TIME TIME SE SERIES RIES 20 2000 00-2015 2015

(W (WOR ORK K DONE ONE IN IN 201 2018) 8)

Emission data collection, processing, gapfilling (based on 2017 reporting) Change in resolution (0.1° x0.05°) and sector coding (GNFR) Significant improvements have been implemented for the 2000-2015 time series:

• 1. A reprocessing, completeness check and gapfilling for the annual point

source data base (2000-2015)

• 2. Renewed most diffuse sources distribution maps (population, land

cover, livestock, road transport)

• 3. AIS-based emission distribution for international shipping
• 4. Domain extension to support modelling over the Mediterranean regions

5 | CAMS emission inventory

Opportunity:

Combine efforts with other projects More than just an update of TNO-MACC-III

08 October 2019

FR FROM OM SN SNAP AP TO O GNFR GNFR

Goal: harmonize with country reporting and make comparisons easier

08 October 2019 6 | CAMS emission inventory

GNFR SNAP Changes/remarks A_PublicPower 1 (only power&heat plants) Al SNAP1 non-power plants (refineries, coke ovens,

• il&gas extraction, and other energy industries: NFR

1A1b+1A1c) move to Industry B_Industry 34 (3+4 together) + non- power plants from SNAP 1 C_OtherStationaryComb 2 D_Fugitive 5 E_Solvents 6 Includes also product use including fireworks and tobacco F_RoadTransport (split in F1-F4) 7 Emissions delivered separately for exhaust in gasoline, diesel, LPG/nat.gas (F1,2,3), and evaporation & wear together as non-exhaust (F4) G_Shipping 8 (only shipping) Split of SNAP 8 in aviation, shipping and other sources. Shipping will include also international shipping at sea. H_Aviation 8 (only aviation) I_Offroad 8 (all SNAP 8 except shipping / aviation) J_Waste 9 K_AgriLivestock 10 (only livestock) Split of SNAP 10 in livestock and other, the latter including the soil emissions and also manure spreading L_AgriOther includes agricultural waste burning L_AgriOther 10 (all SNAP 10 except livestock) M_Other Empty: emissions reported here have been included with E_Solvents

Hugo Denier van der Gon - TNO-CAMS81 emissions @ CAMS50 meeting Toulouse

DATA USE USED D FOR FOR PUBLIC PUBLIC PO POWER WER AND AND HEA HEAT T SE SECT CTOR, OR, EU EU

E-PRTR Facility name Location Sector Emissions of CO2, NOx, SO2 and PM10 Years: 2001, 2004, 2007–2015 LCP Plant name Location Plant type Emission of NOx, SOx and dust Fuel use by fuel type Estimated CO2 emissions Years: 2004 – 2015 Gapfilling from LCP dataset:

• Fuel type
• Emissions of NOx, SOx, dust and

CO2 when missing in EPRTR dataset

• Plants when missing in EPRTR

dataset Platts WEPP Plant name Location Unit type Fuel type Electric capacity Sector (e.g. utility, autoproducer in paper prod.) Year start of operation Year retired (if applicable) Gapfilling from Platts WEPP dataset:

• Fuel type when missing in LCP

dataset (e.g. waste plants)

• Crosscheck to see if all large

electricity plants have been included

• Crosscheck with sector to see if

facility is part of Public power and heat sector Creating final product TNO EI map, EU Facility name Location (coordinate + country) Fuel type Pollutant Share of plant in country emissions by fuel type

28 March 2018

EXA EXAMPLE MPLE: : SO2 SO2 TIME TIME SER SERIES IES

8 | CAMS emission inventory 08 October 2019

20 2016 16 EMISSIONS: EMISSIONS: CAMS CAMS-REG REG-V3.1 V3.1

(W (WORK ORK DONE DONE IN IN Q1/20 Q1/2019) 19)

Providing new emissions for most recent available year Produced in Jan-Feb 2019, released in March 2019 Relatively simple & straightforward approach Latest (2018) reported data (UNFCCC & EMEP) taken up & processed Proxies for 2016 the same as for 2015 (incl. point sources & shares)

9 | CAMS emission inventory 08 October 2019

CAMS CAMS-REG REG-V3.1 V3.1 COMP COMPARE ARED D TO O V2.2.1 V2.2.1

(OR: HO (OR: HOW DOES W DOES 2016 FI 2016 FIT WI T WITH TH 2000 2000-2015 T 2015 TIME IME SE SERIES RIES?) ?)

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Species Change[%] CO 0% NH3

• 1%

NMVOC

• 1%

NOX

• 4%

PM10 1% PM2_5 1% SO2

• 12%

CO2_ff

• 2%

CO2_bf 3% CH4 0%

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EXA EXAMPLE MPLE: : CZE CZECH CH REP REPUBL UBLIC IC

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This again stresses there is a need for continuous reviewing/updating of emissions!

08 October 2019

Difference due to the time series (= reporting year) not 2015 or 2016. CAMs-REGv3 year 2016 cannot be just “glued” to the 2000-2015 timeseries (CAMS-REGv2.2.1) (see arrows – completely wrong trend emerges!) In this case due to change of methodology in one sector (Residential combustion) but this is not generic to all countries!

NEXT NEXT: : TIME TIME SERIES SERIES 2000 2000-2017 2017

Full updated time series 2000-2017 in preparation now Released within CAMS: April 2020 (will become public later in the year) Incorporating: Latest emission reporting (2019 cycle) for years 2000-2017 New point source information (focus on latest years) Improved road transport distribution maps Shipping: time series of gridded data

12 | CAMS emission inventory 08 October 2019

A PERSISTENT ISSUE… RES RESIDENTIAL IDENTIAL COMB COMBUSTION USTION (W (WOOD OOD & CO & COAL) AL)

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INTR INTRODUC ODUCTION TION

Large discrepancies between PM emission reporting for small combustion in Europe, mostly related to different measurement techniques used to measure PM2.5 emissions from small combustion appliances (boilers & stoves) Different techniques lead to very different results Filter measurement: excluding condensable component Dilution tunnel method will include condensable component Difference in emission factor can be up to a factor 5 (!) Currently, there is no prescribed method for emission inventories, and consequently countries use a mix of methods

08 October 2019 14 | CAMS emission inventory

08 October 2019 15 | CAMS emission inventory

DE DEVE VELOPM OPMENT ENTS S IN EMISSION IN EMISSION REP REPOR ORTING TING

Discussions in EMEP ongoing… but hard to everyone moving in the same direction and get full consistency across countries No clear definition of PM2.5 that should be reported Countries are themselves responsible, hard to push Changing now may cause issues with emission ceilings Until the issue is resolved, an alternative baseline has been produced by TNO Combining estimates of wood consumption and emission factors all including condensable component (Denier van der Gon et al., ACP, 2015)

08 October 2019 16 | CAMS emission inventory

BUILD UILDING ING CON CONSIST SISTENCY ENCY

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TO DIS O DISTRI TRIBUT UTE E RW RWC WE C WE US USE E TH THE E FRA FRACTI CTION OF ON OF WOOD OOD THA THAT I T IS S NO NOT LOCA OCALL LLY OB Y OBTAINED (FR AINED (FROM OM FOREST FORESTS) S) – THI THIS S IS IS NO NOT FORMA T FORMALL LLY KN Y KNOWN WN

08 October 2019

DEV DEVEL ELOPMENT OPMENTS S IN EMI IN EMISSION SSION REP REPOR ORTING TING

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+40%

IMP IMPACT CT ON ON MODEL MODELLING LING RES RESUL ULTS TS

19 | CAMS emission inventory

Niesky – daily TC

LOTOS-EUROS model over Germany using different emissions/options

• RWC = using TNO bottom-up inventory for residential combustion instead of base emissions
• Heating = using HDD approach for emission timing instead of default profile

08 October 2019

COND CONDENSA ENSABLE BLES

Model studies clearly show that performance is significantly better when condensables are consistently included. However, current reporting is a mix

• f various approaches with regard to PM

Things are moving in EMEP/country inventories (more countries moving towards including condensables) but at very slow speed… will take probably quite a few years for country inventories to be fully consistent Official CAMS regional inventories will continue to be using official country data, which means the issue will remain in the coming years Necessary to of when you do local emissions/modelling (FAIRMODE) to be aware of the issue and know what your emission data DO and DO NOT contain!

20 | CAMS emission inventory 08 October 2019

CONC CONCLUSION USIONS

Three new CAMS regional emission inventories produced Latest versions (v2, 2000-2015 and v3, 2016) available online (ECCAD) Provide model-ready emission grids that can be used by AQ (and GHG) modelling teams within CAMS and beyond Time series 2000-2017 (April 2020), first restricted to CAMS but will become public Inconsistencies due to in-/exclusion of condensables are a major issue in current inventories (also CAMS-REG), especially for small combustion Work ongoing in EMEP to improve this but will take time In the meantime, an alternative 2010 inventory has been prepared by TNO as alternative in support of CAMS

21 | CAMS emission inventory 08 October 2019

Dataset Pollutants Resolution Sector Classification Years CAMS-REG-AP-v1.1 NOx, SO2, NMVOC, CO, NH3, PM10, PM2.5 0.125° x 0.0625° SNAP (13 sectors) 2015 CAMS-REG-AP-v2.2.1 NOx, SO2, NMVOC, CO, NH3, PM10, PM2.5 0.1° x 0.05° GNFR (15 sectors) 2000-2015 CAMS-REG-AP-v3.1 NOx, SO2, NMVOC, CO, NH3, PM10, PM2.5 0.1° x 0.05° GNFR (15 sectors) 2015 CAMS-REG-GHG-v1.1 CO2 (ff), CO2 (bf), CH4 0.125° x 0.0625° SNAP (13 sectors) 2016 CAMS-REG-GHG- v2.2.1 CO2 (ff), CO2 (bf), CH4 0.1° x 0.05° GNFR (15 sectors) 2000-2015 CAMS-REG-GHG-v3.1 CO2 (ff), CO2 (bf), CH4 0.1° x 0.05° GNFR (15 sectors) 2016

THANK THANK YOU OU FOR FOR YOUR OUR ATTENTION TTENTION !

Data available from https://eccad.aeris-data.fr

08 October 2019 22 | CAMS emission inventory

Any questions or comments? Jeroen.Kuenen@tno.nl

THANK Y THANK YOU OU FOR Y FOR YOUR OUR ATTE TTENTION NTION

Any questions or comments? Jeroen.Kuenen@tno.nl