A Tool for Urban Air A Tool for Urban Air Pollution Analysis - - PDF document

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Interactive nteractive Database for atabase for Emission mission Analysis nalysis

• IDEA

IDEA -

Eri Saikawa Eri Saikawa

East Asia Region East Asia Region The World Bank The World Bank School of Public and Environmental Affairs School of Public and Environmental Affairs Indiana University Indiana University August 11, 2004 August 11, 2004

A Tool for Urban Air A Tool for Urban Air Pollution Analysis Pollution Analysis

Outline Outline

Context of Integrated Air Quality

Context of Integrated Air Quality Management (IAQM) Management (IAQM)

Critical Need for Information in IAQM

Critical Need for Information in IAQM

Interactive Database for Emission Analysis

Interactive Database for Emission Analysis (IDEA) (IDEA)

Case Studies

Case Studies

IDEA

IDEA – Potential Uses and Limitations Potential Uses and Limitations

Future Directions

Future Directions

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Air Pollution Air Pollution

Environmental degradation is a priority issue

Environmental degradation is a priority issue in the developing world in the developing world

Air pollution is a problem which has significant

Air pollution is a problem which has significant social social, , economic economic and and environmental environmental impacts impacts

Key factors:

Key factors:

• Increasing Urban Population/Industrialization

Increasing Urban Population/Industrialization

• Growing Vehicular Demand/Domestic Needs

Growing Vehicular Demand/Domestic Needs

Urbanization is increasing Urbanization is increasing…

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Including in East Asia Including in East Asia… Health Risks of Air Pollution Health Risks of Air Pollution

PM PM - premature mortality, lung, potential effects

premature mortality, lung, potential effects

• n heart
• n heart

SO SO2 - respiratory, possibly mortality effects

respiratory, possibly mortality effects

CO CO - circulatory system, Heart

circulatory system, Heart

O3 - respiratory system, lung

respiratory system, lung

NO NOx - respiratory, precursor of O

respiratory, precursor of O3

Pb Pb - nerv ous system, brain

nerv ous system, brain

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Air pollution impacts Air pollution impacts many urban areas in Asia many urban areas in Asia

50 50 100 100 150 150 200 200 250 250 300 300 350 350 400 400 B a n g k

• k

B a n g k

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B u s a n B u s a n C h

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g q i n g C h

• n

g q i n g C

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• m

b

• C
• l
• m

b

• H
• n

g K

• n

g H

• n

g K

• n

g J a k a r t a J a k a r t a K

• l

k a t a K

• l

k a t a M a n i l a M a n i l a M u m b a i M u m b a i N e w D e l h i N e w D e l h i O s a k a O s a k a P u n e P u n e S i n g a p

• r

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l S e

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l S h a n g h a i S h a n g h a i T

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y

• T
• k

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• concentration in

concentration in µg/m g/m

Source: Information collecte d from national and local go vernment Source: Information collecte d from national and local go vernmentagen cies thro ugh CAI agen cies thro ugh CAI-Asia netwo rk, 200 3, detailed source s availabl e from CAI Asia netwo rk, 200 3, detailed source s availabl e from CAI-Asia Secretariat Asia Secretariat

SO2 Limit = 50 µg/m3 (WHO, 1999) NO2 Limit = 40 µg/m3 (WHO, 1999) SPM Limit = 90 µg/m3 (WHO, 1999) PM10 Limit = 50 µg/m3 (WHO, 1999)

How can this be How can this be addressed effectively? addressed effectively?

Recognition of problem and management

Recognition of problem and management

• ptions
• ptions

An integrated air quality management

An integrated air quality management (IAQM) approach (IAQM) approach

Adequate knowledge base and analytical

Adequate knowledge base and analytical tools tools

Effective collaboration across stakeholders

Effective collaboration across stakeholders towards a shared goal towards a shared goal

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Key elements of IAQM Key elements of IAQM

Sour ces Sour ces Air Qualit y Air Qualit y I m pact s I m pact s

I nt egr at ed I nt egr at ed Air Q ualit y Air Q ualit y Management Management

P

• li cy

P

• li cy

Opti ons Opti ons Techni cal Techni cal Opti ons Opti ons OBJECTIVES OBJECTIVES

• Focus on key

Focus on key pollutants (e.g. fine pollutants (e.g. fine particulates) particulates)

• Improve

Improve understanding of understanding of key pollution key pollution sources sources

• Assess impacts

Assess impacts

• Analysis of

Analysis of alternative alternative management management strategies/options strategies/options Economi c Economi c Opti ons Opti ons

Typical constraints for IAQM Typical constraints for IAQM

Systematic

Systematic collation collation of existing data and

• f existing data and

information information

Up

Up-to to-date and consistent date and consistent database database (on (on pollution sources and ambient levels, pollution sources and ambient levels, impacts, and responses) and effective impacts, and responses) and effective integrative integrative analytical tools analytical tools

Stakeholder interaction

Stakeholder interaction and and institutional institutional capacity capacity

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Conceptual framework for Conceptual framework for this initiative this initiative

Collation:

Collation: Systematically organize existing Systematically organize existing information on selected cities to aid IAQM information on selected cities to aid IAQM

Database & Tools:

Database & Tools: Development of Development of IDEA IDEA – an Interactive Database for Emissions an Interactive Database for Emissions Analysis Analysis

Stakeholders:

Stakeholders: Building partnerships to Building partnerships to develop a shared knowledge base develop a shared knowledge base

Case Study Cities Case Study Cities

Jakarta Jakarta Hanoi Hanoi Shanghai Shanghai Beijing Beijing Bangkok Bangkok

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What is IDEA? What is IDEA?

Ambient Air Quality Level Ambient Air Quality Level

Dispersion Dispersion Modeling Modeling Met eorology Met eorology

Emissions Emissions

Management Options Management Options

• Economic

Economic

• Administrative

Administrative

• Policy

Policy

• Technical

Technical

Economic & Policy Economic & Policy Assessment Assessment Integrated Modeling/ Integrated Modeling/ Stak eholder Feedback Stak eholder Feedback

Exposure Exposure

Damage Damage Assessment Assessment Dose Dose-Response/ Response/ Valuation Valuation Population Population Distribution & Activity Distribution & Activity Exposure Exposure Assessment Assessment

IDEA IDEA

• Systematic Knowle

dge Systematic Knowle dge Base (sources, ambient Base (sources, ambient levels, impacts, options) levels, impacts, options)

• Use in impact assessment

Use in impact assessment and analysis of alternatives and analysis of alternatives

What Types of Information What Types of Information does IDEA focus on? does IDEA focus on?

General

General

Sources & Emissions

Sources & Emissions

Ambient Levels

Ambient Levels

Impacts

Impacts

Options

Options

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General General

Ongoing Projects

Ongoing Projects

Policies, Legislation

Policies, Legislation

Population

Population

GIS Databases

GIS Databases

Maps

Maps

Studies

Studies

Ja k arta B eijing Sh an gha i H an

• i

Population (20 0) 1 1,01 8 ,0 00 13 ,8 2 0,00 16 ,7 4 0,00 3 ,7 51 ,0 Are a (km

2)

6 61 .5 2 1 6 80 6 34 0.5 91 8 Mo nito ring d ata T SP (µg /m

3)

1 1 .6

• 18

9 .2 3 70 16 2 PM

10 (µg

/m

3)

4 5

• 14

6 N O

x (µg

/m

3)

4 5

• 18

7 7 1 6 2 SO

2 (µg

/m

3)

9 .5

• 40

.5 6 4 4 3 1-9 8

Pollutants and Sources Pollutants and Sources

Industrial and Power Sector Industrial and Power Sector

Coal, Fuel Oil, NG Coal, Fuel Oil, NG

Domestic Sector Domestic Sector

Coal, Biofuels, NG/LPG Coal, Biofuels, NG/LPG

Transportation Sector Transportation Sector

Gasoline, Diesel, CNG/LPG Gasoline, Diesel, CNG/LPG

Anthropogenic Sources Anthropogenic Sources

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Pollutants and Sources Pollutants and Sources

Biomass Burning Biomass Burning

Controlled and uncontrolled Controlled and uncontrolled combustion combustion

Volcanoes Volcanoes Dust Outbreaks Dust Outbreaks

Natural Sources Natural Sources

Emissions Emissions

Emissions Emissions

Inputs Inputs

• Total Fuel Use

Total Fuel Use – Coal, oil, gas, natural gas, Coal, oil, gas, natural gas, alternatives alternatives

• Industrial Fuel Use

Industrial Fuel Use

• Electricity Demand

Electricity Demand

• Vehicle N umber by Age/Type

Vehicle N umber by Age/Type

• Vehicle Km Travel ed

Vehicle Km Travel ed

• Trends

Trends

• Road N etwor k

Road N etwor k

Outputs Outputs

• Emissions apportionment

Emissions apportionment by source by source

• Spatial distribution

Spatial distribution

• Projections under v arious

Projections under v arious scenarios scenarios

• Control

Control vs vs Cost estimates Cost estimates f or key pollutants f or key pollutants …input into input into Dispersion Dispersion Models Models Emission Estimation Emission Estimation f or Key Pollutants f or Key Pollutants

BMR Regions Road Network Emission Characteristics

• Emission Factors for key

Emission Factors for key pollutants pollutants – PM PM10

10, SO

, SO2, , NO NOx, CO , CO2

• Point Source Locations &

Point Source Locations & Emissions Emissions

• Emission Control

Emission Control Scenarios/Options Scenarios/Options

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Dispersion Dispersion

Inputs Inputs

• Emission Inventory

Emission Inventory

• Meteorology

Meteorology

• Ambient Concentration

Ambient Concentration Data Data

• Scenarios/Options

Scenarios/Options

• Maps/GIS information

Maps/GIS information Outputs Outputs

• Ambient Concentrations

Ambient Concentrations

• Projections under v arious

Projections under v arious scenarios scenarios

• Spatial patterns

Spatial patterns

• Exposure levels

Exposure levels …input into input into Exposure Models Exposure Models

Units: mg/m3 PM1

• 120. 8

121

• 121. 2

121. 4 12 1. 6

• 121. 8

122

• 30. 8

31

• 31. 2
• 31. 4
• 31. 6
• 31. 8

32

5 10 15 20 25 30

Emissions

Spatial Distribution Spatial Distribution

• f Ambient Concentrations
• f Ambient Concentrations

BMR Regions Road Network Emissions Characteristics

• Meteorology

Dispersion Modeling

Exposure Exposure

Inputs Inputs

• Ambient Concentrations

Ambient Concentrations

• Population Distribution

Population Distribution

• Distribution of other

Distribution of other sensitive receptors sensitive receptors

• Scenarios/Options

Scenarios/Options

Outputs Outputs

• Health Estimate

Health Estimate

• Projections under v arious

Projections under v arious scenarios scenarios …input into input into Economic Economic A nalysis Models A nalysis Models

Units: µg/m3 PM1

• 120. 8

12 1 1

• 21. 2

121. 4 1

• 21. 6

121. 8 122 30. 8 31 31. 2 31. 4 31. 6 31. 8 32

5 1 0 1 5 2 0 2 5 3 0

Impact/Exposure Impact/Exposure Assessment Assessment

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Typical Options for IAQM Typical Options for IAQM

Economic

Economic: taxes, subsidies, pricing, charges, : taxes, subsidies, pricing, charges, fines, tradable permits fines, tradable permits

Administrative

Administrative: emission, energy efficiency : emission, energy efficiency and fuel quality standards, restrictions on and fuel quality standards, restrictions on

• peration, inspection and maintenance,
• peration, inspection and maintenance,

industrial compliance industrial compliance

Policy

Policy: monitoring, compliance, transport : monitoring, compliance, transport systems, traffic management, public transport, systems, traffic management, public transport, NMT, industry, zoning, land NMT, industry, zoning, land-use use

Technological

Technological: fuel improvements, cleaner : fuel improvements, cleaner technologies, end technologies, end-of

• f-pipe control devices,

pipe control devices, cleaner production cleaner production

Economic Analysis Economic Analysis

Inputs Inputs

• Health and Other

Health and Other Damages and Damages and Valuation under Valuation under v arious v arious scenarios/options scenarios/options

• Costs of various

Costs of various

• ptions
• ptions

Outputs Outputs

• Cost

Cost-Effectiv eness of Effectiv eness of v arious options v arious options

• Net Benef its of v arious

Net Benef its of v arious

• ptions
• ptions

…input for input for Decision Decision Support Support Economic Analysis Economic Analysis

• f Various
• f Various

Management Options Management Options

$$$

Cost-Effectiveness Graph (for Selected Component)

• 5

5 10 15 20 25

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600

Emission R eduction (tons/day) Incremental Cos ($/ton)

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IDEA: An Excel IDEA: An Excel-based Tool based Tool Jakarta Jakarta

0.0 50 0.0 100 0.0 150 0.0 200 0.0 250 0.0 300 0.0 µg/m

3

1 981 1 982 19 83 1 984 198 5 19 91 Year

TSP con centratio n

Pulo Ga dun g Kay u Ma nis C iledu g H alim P. Mo nas G lo do k Ban den ga n Anc

• l

BMG

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 PJ 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Year Energy Consumption by F uel in Jakarta Heat/Steam E lectricity Nuc lear Renewables Natural Gas Light F rac tions M iddle D is tillates Heavy F uel Oil Biof uels Coal

• 2,000,000

4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000 10,000,000 12,000,000 Population 195 0 19 55 1960 1965 19 70 1 975 1 980 198 5 19 90 1995 200 0 Ye ar Po pulation i n Jakarta 1950-2000

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Potential Uses of IDEA Potential Uses of IDEA

City

City-level air quality databases level air quality databases

Selection and Analysis of Options/Scenarios

Selection and Analysis of Options/Scenarios

Useful for environmental assessment (baseline,

Useful for environmental assessment (baseline, impacts, analysis of alternatives) impacts, analysis of alternatives)

Modeling Framework Development and

Modeling Framework Development and Application Application

Common platform for collaboration at city

Common platform for collaboration at city-level level

DIESEL DIESEL-IDEAS program IDEAS program

Developing eveloping Integrated ntegrated Emission mission Strategies trategies for for Existing xisting Land transport and transport – Informed nformed Decision ecision-support support for for Evaluating valuating Alternative lternative Strategies trategies

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Limitations Limitations

Results are only as good as the databases

Results are only as good as the databases – coverage, quality, consistency and access coverage, quality, consistency and access problems problems

Consensus on types of options to be considered

Consensus on types of options to be considered

Evolving methodologies and tools for

Evolving methodologies and tools for assessment assessment

Involvement of multiple stakeholders and

Involvement of multiple stakeholders and disciplines disciplines

Adequate reflection of political economy

Adequate reflection of political economy

Actual

Actual USE USE and continuous updating of the and continuous updating of the systems developed systems developed

Next Steps Next Steps

Going deeper

Going deeper

Better Quality and Updated Data

Better Quality and Updated Data

Interface with Modeling Tools/Decision

Interface with Modeling Tools/Decision Support Systems Support Systems

Better Impact Assessment and Analysis of

Better Impact Assessment and Analysis of Alternative Strategies/Options Alternative Strategies/Options

Going broader: More Cities

Going broader: More Cities

Dissemination: Web

Dissemination: Web-based Systems based Systems

Institutional: Stakeholder collaboration for

Institutional: Stakeholder collaboration for Shared knowledge base; Institutional Shared knowledge base; Institutional “home home”

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15 15 Government Government Industry groups Industry groups Judiciary Judiciary Research institutes Research institutes International International

• rganizations
• rganizations

Community groups Community groups Clean air Clean air NGOs NGOs

In Conclusion In Conclusion…

Organized information is essential for IAQM

Organized information is essential for IAQM in urban areas in urban areas

IDEA is one approach to piloting the user

IDEA is one approach to piloting the user- friendly organization of such information friendly organization of such information

It could have many uses despite limitations

It could have many uses despite limitations

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Thank You! Thank You!

Questions? Questions? Comments? Comments?