AIM/Enduse model: AIM/Enduse model: Features and Features and - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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AIM/Enduse model: AIM/Enduse model: Features and Features and - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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AIM/Enduse model: AIM/Enduse model: Features and Features and applications applications Mikiko KAINUMA Mikiko KAINUMA AIM Team, National Institute for Environmental Studies AIM Team, National Institute for Environmental Studies (Integrated

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AIM/Enduse model: AIM/Enduse model: Features and Features and applications applications

Mikiko KAINUMA Mikiko KAINUMA

AIM Team, National Institute for Environmental Studies AIM Team, National Institute for Environmental Studies (Integrated Environmental Assessment Group, APEIS) (Integrated Environmental Assessment Group, APEIS)

AIM/APEIS Workshop as a part of APEIS IEA activities AIM/APEIS Workshop as a part of APEIS IEA activities 7 7-

  • 12 November 2005, NIES, Japan

12 November 2005, NIES, Japan

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AIM, NIES 2

Model analysis on CO2 reduction policy Model analysis on CO2 reduction policy

  • Bottom

Bottom-

  • up model approach

up model approach-

  • AIM/Enduse model

– Based on socioeconomic scenario, energy devices and energy types are selected to minimize total cost.

Marginal Abatement Cost Curve

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3

Multi-Sector General Equilibriums Model

(AIM/ENDUSE[Global], CGE)

Global Level ・ ・ ・ Country Level Technology /Economic Model/Material Technology /Economic Model/Material Technology /Economic Model/Material

AIM/Emission

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Energy Energy technology Energy service

  • Oil
  • Coal
  • Gas
  • Solar
  • Electricity etc.
  • Blast furnace
  • Power generation
  • Air conditioner
  • Boiler
  • Automobile etc.
  • Crude steel products
  • Sectoral GDP
  • Cooling demand
  • Lighting
  • Transportation etc.

Energy consumption CO2 emissions Technology selection Energy service demands

Energy database

  • Energy type
  • Energy price
  • Energy constraints
  • CO2 emission factor

Technology database

  • Technology price
  • Energy consumption
  • Supplied service

amounts

  • Technology share
  • Lifetime

Socioeconomic scenario

  • Population growth
  • Economic growth
  • Industrial structure
  • Employment
  • Lifestyle

Model analysis on CO2 reduction policy

  • Bottom-up model approach-

Structure of AIM/Enduse model

4

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5

. 6 . 2 5 1 2 . 5 1 8 . 7 5 2 5 . 3 1 . 2 5 3 7 . 5 4 3 . 7 5 5 . 5 6 . 2 5 6 2 . 5 6 8 . 7 5 7 5 . 8 1 . 2 5 8 7 . 5 9 3 . 7 5 > = 1 .

AIM-Enduse, Local Database System

GIS System Model: Search technology

  • ptions
  • Energy service

technology

  • Pollution removal

technology

  • Cost-benefit

China

Output

Change of technology share Beijing SO2 emission intensity in 1995

Database Database + End End-

  • use Model

use Model (Local Pollution) + GIS GIS

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6

  • III. Input and Output

Input: (1) Energy

  • Fuel type
  • Fuel price
  • Emission factors by fuels and

technologies(CO2, SO2, NOX, SPM)

  • Energy resource constraints
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(2)Technology

  • Initial cost
  • Operating cost
  • Energy consumption by fuels for a unit

production

  • Life-span
  • Capacity
  • Share
  • Pollutants removal technologies and their

combinations with major energy service technologies

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(3) Service demand by regions and sectors

  • Historical service data
  • Future service demand forecast
  • Economic development plans from the local

government

  • Development plans from the local industries

(4) Air pollutant emission constraints

  • Current air pollutant emissions
  • Local environmental protection policies
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(3) Service output

  • Service output by regions, sectors, technologies

and years

(4) Energy balance table

  • Energy balance table for the local region by

years (with energy information for sectors, technologies and fuel types)

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Output: (1) Aggregated results

  • Total energy consumption by years
  • Total costs by years
  • Total CO2 emissions by years
  • Total air pollutant emissions by years

(2) Technology options

  • CO2 emissions by technologies and years
  • Air pollutant emissions by technologies and years
  • Energy consumption by technologies and years
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AIM, NIES 11

Model analysis on CO2 reduction policy Model analysis on CO2 reduction policy

  • Bottom

Bottom-

  • up model approach in Japan

up model approach in Japan -

  • Examples of socioeconomic scenarios

Examples of socioeconomic scenarios

2000 2010 2012 Real GDP growth rate %/year 0.9 1.9 1.9 Crude steel

  • mil. ton

106.9 95.9 94.8 Cement

  • mil. ton

79.3 70.3 69.8 Ethylene

  • mil. ton

7.6 6.7 6.7 Paper & board

  • mil. ton

31.8 36.0 36.7 Number of households mil. 46.8 49.1 49.2 Floor space in com. sector

  • mil. m2

1,655 1,793 1,844 Passenger transportation tri.*person*km 1.42 1.51 1.53 Freight transportation tri.*ton*km 0.56 0.57 0.57 Nuclear power generation (new construction after 2002) Plants － 8 8 Raw material production

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AIM, NIES 12

Model analysis on CO2 reduction policy Model analysis on CO2 reduction policy

  • Bottom

Bottom-

  • up model approach

up model approach-

  • 900

950 1000 1050 1100 1150 1200 1250 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Year A B C D E CO2 emissions from fossil fuels [MtCO2] ↑2% reduction of CO2 emissions from fossil fuels in 1990

  • Tech. fix

Cheapest choice C-tax: 3,000 JPY/tC C-tax: 30,000 JPY/tC Tax + Subsidy

CO2 emissions trajectories by scenarios

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AIM, NIES 13

Model analysis on CO2 reduction policy Model analysis on CO2 reduction policy

  • Bottom

Bottom-

  • up model approach

up model approach-

  • CO2 reduction

in Japan Model analysis AIM/Enduse AIM/Top-down AIM/Material Conclusion

Marginal cost [¥/tC] Tax rate Target Emissions Marginal cost [¥/tC] Present Target Emissions Marginal cost [¥/tC] Tax rate Subsidy Present Target Emissions Expenditure for countermeasures 45,000 JPY/tC 3,400 JPY/tC Amount of tax payment Present

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AIM, NIES 14

Carbon tax rate and required additional investments Carbon tax rate and required additional investments for reducing CO2 emissions in Japan for reducing CO2 emissions in Japan

sector Subsidized measures and devices Add. investm ent Industrial sector Boiler conversion control, High performance motor, High performance industrial furnace, Waste plastic injection blast furnace, LDF with closed LDG recovery, High efficiency continuous annealing, Diffuser bleaching device, High efficiency clinker cooler, Biomass power generation 101.3 Residential sector High efficiency air conditioner, High efficiency gas stove, Solar water heater, High efficiency gas cooking device, High efficiency television, High efficiency VTR, Latent heat recovery type water heater, High efficiency illuminator, High efficiency refrigerator, Standby electricity saving, Insulation 353.9 Commercial sector High efficiency electric refrigerator, High efficiency air conditioner, High efficiency gas absorption heat pump, High efficiency gas boiler, Latent heat recovery type boiler, Solar water heater, High efficiency gas cooking device, High frequency inverter lighting with timer, High efficiency vending machine, Amorphous transformer, Standby electricity saving, Heat pump, Insulation 194.5

  • bil. JPY / year

Model analysis on CO2 reduction policy Model analysis on CO2 reduction policy

  • Bottom

Bottom-

  • up model approach

up model approach-

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AIM, NIES 15

Model analysis on CO2 reduction policy Model analysis on CO2 reduction policy

  • Bottom

Bottom-

  • up model approach

up model approach-

  • Carbon tax rate and required additional investments

for reducing CO2 emissions in Japan (continued)

sector Subsidized measures and devices Add. investment Transportation sector High efficiency gasoline private car, High efficiency diesel car, Hybrid commercial car, High efficiency diesel bus, High efficiency small-sized truck, High efficiency standard-sized track 106.6 Forest management Plantation, Weeding, Tree thinning, Multilayered thinning, Improvement of natural forest 195.7 Total 952.0

  • bil. JPY / year

Tax rate to appropriate required subsidiary payments (JPY/tC) 3,433

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AIM, NIES 16

AIM/Enduse Software

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AIM Home Page

http://www-iam.nies.go.jp/aim/

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AIM, NIES 18

AIM Home Page

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AIM, NIES 19

AIM Home Page

http://www- iam.nies.go.jp/aim/india0210/software.htm

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AIM, NIES 20

Structure of Manual

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Example of Marginal Abatement Cost Analysis

Siftware: Enduse_MAC_050119.mdb

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Is there enough potential in 2020?

5% 33%(Private), 10%(Public) < 0 < 100 < 300 < 0 < 100 < 300 CO2 Steel 395 571 642 338 486 546 Other manufacture 1,045 1,850 1,855 196 1,195 1,898 Indutry total 1,440 2,421 2,496 533 1,682 2,444 Residential 210 330 351 22 110 281 Commercial 307 474 483 56 275 373 Transportation 1,298 1,826 2,481 448 542 1,233 Agriculture Others Power generation 3,026 3,366 3,526 3,010 3,082 3,463 Total 6,282 8,417 9,337 4,069 5,690 7,795 CH4 Agriculture 42 330 32 152 Energy 797 2,005 2,005 478 2,001 2,005 Total 797 2,048 2,335 478 2,033 2,158 N2O ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ HFCs,PFCs,SF6 (4%) 84 796 859 ‐ ‐ ‐ Total 7,163 11,260 12,531 4,548 7,723 9,953 Discount rate Marginal abatement cost 2000US$

Mt-CO2

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Reduction potential Reduction potential in in Developed and Developing/Transition Developed and Developing/Transition Economies Economies

< US$ 0, 2020 < US$ 100, 2020 Developed Developing/Transition

1,000 2,000 3,000 Manufacture - CO2 Residential & Commecial - CO2 Transportation - CO2 Energy industry

  • CO2

Energy industry

  • CH4

Agriculture - CH4 HFCs,PFCs,SF6 CO2 Reduction (Mt-CO2eq) Developed Developing /Transition 1,000 2,000 3,000 Manufacture - CO2 Residential & Commecial - CO2 Transportation - CO2 Energy industry

  • CO2

Energy industry

  • CH4

Agriculture - CH4 HFCs,PFCs,SF6 CO2 Reduction (Mt-CO2eq) Developed Developing /Transition

Discount rate = 5% (Private & Public)

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Reduction potential Reduction potential from from s steel sector teel sector in 2020 in 2020

2,307 1,520 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 2000 2020 Frozen AC < 0 AC < 100 AC < 300 AC < 0 AC < 100 AC < 300 CO2 Emission (Mt-CO2) Reduction Emission 2020 DR= 33% (-25%) (-15%) (-17%) (-28%) (-21%) (-24%) 2020 DR= 5% DR=Discount rate AC = Abatement Cost (US$/tCO2) + 787

Discount Rate Mt-CO2 vs frozen 33% 338 15% 486 21% 546 24% 5% 395 17% 571 25% 642 28% less than 300 less than 300 CO2 Reduction Abatement Cost US$/tCO2 less than 0 less than 100 less than 0 less than 100

115 175 200 58 74 79 46 67 74 14 21 24 14 21 22 74 97 108 17 32 40 100 200 300 400 500 600 < US$0/t-CO2 < US$100/t- CO2 < US$300/t- CO2 CO2 Reduction (Mt-CO2) Developed Developing Others Brazil EU-10 in Eastern Europe India Russia China Discount rate = 33% 124 124 124 88 88 88 68 68 68 28 28 28 15 15 66 66 47 47 25 25 26 66 15 20 14 100 200 300 400 500 600 < US$0/t-CO2 < US$100/t- CO2 < US$300/t- CO2 CO2 Reduction (Mt-CO2) Others Coke dry type quenching High efficiency heating furnace Increase of coal injection LDG & latent heat recovery Continuous caster Retire of OHF Large size blast furnace Large size coke oven Furnace gas recovery Discount rate = 33%

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Reduction potential Reduction potential from from t transportation sector ransportation sector in 2020 in 2020

8,483 4,836 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 2000 2020 Frozen AC < 0 AC < 100 AC < 300 AC < 0 AC < 100 AC < 300 CO2 Emission (Mt-CO2) Reduction Emission DR=Discount rate AC = Abatement Cost (US$/tCO2) +2,436 2020 DR= 5% 2020 DR= 33% (-5%)(-6%) (-15%) (-15%) (-29%) (-22%)

30 30 81 37 41 53 40 41 60 27 27 53 172 191 330 21 21 355 80 139 187 40 50 113 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 < US$0/t-CO2 < US$100/t-CO2 < US$300/t-CO2 CO2 Reduction (Mt-CO2) Developed Others EU-15 in Western Europe USA Developing Others Russia Brazil India China Discount rate = 33%

109 119 556 237 237 45 180 39 33 57 111 237 24 89 39 39 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 < US$0/t-CO2 < US$100/t- CO2 < US$300/t- CO2 CO2 Reduction (Mt-CO2) Others Retire of stock type truck Engine friction reduction GDI Engine Weight reduction Retire of stock type vehicle VVLT & Cylinder Deactivation Discount rate = 33%

Discount Rate Mt-CO2 vs frozen 33% 448 5% 542 6% 1,233 15% 5% 1,298 15% 1,826 22% 2,481 29% Abatement Cost CO2 Reduction US$/tCO2 less than 0 less than 100 less than 300 less than 0 less than 100 less than 300

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Region Region-

  • wise reduction potential in 2020

wise reduction potential in 2020

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

Japan China India Indonesia Korea Thailand Other South-east Asia Other South Asia Middle East Australia New Zealand Canada USA EU-15 in Western Europe EU-10 in Eastern Europe Russia Argentine Brazil Other Latin America Africa Rest of the World

Reduction Potential (Mt-CO2) US$ 100-300/t-CO2 US$ 0-100/t-CO2 < US$ 0/t-CO2

Discount rate = 5%

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Technology with large reduction potential Technology with large reduction potential

under 100 US$ marginal abatement costs in 2020

Developed

(MtCO2)

Developing/Transition

(MtCO2)

High efficiency gasoline engine (VVLT, GDI etc) 632 Existing type of power plant (coal ,gas) 2,462 Existing type of power plant (coal ,gas) 546 Use of instrument air, low bleed pneumatic devices* 676 Inverter control for motor 216 Gas high efficiency industrial furnace 449 Fluorescent of incandescent type 143 Inverter control for motor 431 Domestic refrigeration: recovery 129 Coal bed methane ventilation oxidizer for heat** 232 * Recovery of CH4 leakage from natural gas pipeline and well ** Recovery of CH4 in coal mine

Discount rate = 5%

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  • 100
  • 50

50 100 150 200 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 CO2 Reduction (Mt-CO2) Marginal Abatement Cost (US$/t-CO2)

  • 100
  • 50

50 100 150 200 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 CO2 Reduction (Mt-CO2) Marginal Abatement Cost (US$/t-CO2)

Marginal abatement cost of developed and Marginal abatement cost of developed and developing/transition economies developing/transition economies

Developed Developing/Transition

Discount rate = 5%, 2020

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  • 100
  • 50

50 100 150 200 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 CO2 Reduction (Mt-CO2) Marginal Abatement Cost (US$/t-CO2)

  • 100
  • 50

50 100 150 200 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 CO2 Reduction (Mt-CO2) Marginal Abatement Cost (US$/t-CO2)

3,400 Mt-CO2 52 US$ Billion 4,200 Mt-CO2 120 US$ Billion 4,900 Mt-CO2 196 US$ Billion Developing/Transition Developed

Discount rate = 5%, 2020

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AIM, NIES 30

Summary Summary

Tool to evaluate policy options to mitigate climate

change and its impacts, and to analyze other environmental issues such as air pollution control, water resources management, land use management, environmental industry encouragement.

Could be applied at global, regional and country level. Effect of policies such as regulation (constraint) on

energy or emission, tax on emission (CO2, SO2, NOx) or energy, subsidy on energy devices or removal process,

  • etc. can be analyzed.

Can analyze the effect of a single or combination of

policies on technology mix, fuel mix, emission mix, total cost, etc.