AIM/Enduse Application to Pakistan and Myanmar Rahul Pandey IIM, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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AIM/Enduse Application to Pakistan and Myanmar Rahul Pandey IIM, Lucknow, India AIM Workshop March 2004 NIES, Tsukuba Presentation scheme Overview of Pakistan & Myanmars energy-economy Data estimation & Scenario

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AIM Workshop March 2004 NIES, Tsukuba

AIM/Enduse Application to Pakistan and Myanmar

Rahul Pandey IIM, Lucknow, India

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AIM Workshop March 2004 NIES, Tsukuba

Presentation scheme

Overview of Pakistan & Myanmar’s energy-economy
Data estimation & Scenario assumptions
Preliminary results
Aggregate data estimation tool for AIM/Enduse

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AIM Workshop March 2004 NIES, Tsukuba

Social & Economic Indicators

Item Pakistan Myanmar GDP $ 80.8 Billion $ 42.4 Billion Population 165 Million 47 Million GDP growth 4.0-5.0% 4.5-6.5% (1998-2002) Agriculture 25% of GDP 47% of GDP Commercial energy Oil & Gas dominated Gas & Oil dominated Accessibility to elec. 50% < 25% Persons/vehicle 100 132

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AIM Workshop March 2004 NIES, Tsukuba

Energy Sources & Supply

Item Pakistan Myanmar

Nat.Gas reserves 26.4 Tcf 12.1 Tcf Nat.Gas production 800 Bcf 216 Bcf Oil reserves 310 Mill.bbl 200 Mill.bbl Oil production 19 Mill.bbl 3.5 Mill.bbl Oil imports 112 Mill.bbl 5.2 Mill.bbl Coal reserves 2.5 Bt 0.26 Bt (India: 82 Bt) Coal production 3.5 Mt 0.026 Mt (India: 360 Mt) Electricity capacity 18 GW 1173 GW Electricity mix

39%O, 30%H, 29%G 75%G, 23%H, 2%O

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AIM Workshop March 2004 NIES, Tsukuba

Item Pakistan Myanmar

Per capita comm.energy use 218 kgoe 95 kgoe (India: 317) Per capita C emission 0.22 tC 0.1 tC (India: 0.25) Traditional energy scenario: Biomass energy use 22 Mtoe 9 Mtoe (India: 163) % of commercial energy use 60 200

Energy … (contd.)

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AIM Workshop March 2004 NIES, Tsukuba

Data estimation

Secondary sources:

– International publications/databases (IEA, WDI, WRS, IISI, FAOSTAT, FAO-RWEDP, USDOE, etc) – National government/ministry websites – Country specific reports from internet

Technology efficiency assumptions based on India and

Bangladesh (if country specific factors are unavailable)

Calibration of aggregate parameters with IEA Energy

Balance Tables

Interlinked Energy/CO2 and Non-CO2 databases

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AIM Workshop March 2004 NIES, Tsukuba

Data estimation: Sector classification

Pakistan Myanmar

Agriculture Agriculture Commercial Commercial Industry: Brick, Cement, Fertilizer, Others Industry: Steel, Others Residential: Cooking & water heating, Lighting, Space heating, Fans, ACs, Refrigerators, TVs, Other appliances Residential: Cooking, Other uses Transport: Road, Rail passenger, Rail freight, Air passenger, Others Transport: Road passenger, Others Electricity generation Electricity generation Oil production Oil production Oil refining Oil refining Gas production Gas production Gas transport & distribution Gas transport & distribution Coal mining Coal mining Rice cultivation Rice cultivation Domestic livestock Domestic livestock Synthetic fertilizers Synthetic fertilizers

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AIM Workshop March 2004 NIES, Tsukuba

CO2 & Non-CO2 linkage in AIM/Enduse

Coal mining methods Coal consuming devices Coal Oil production Refining Oil import Oil

Petro. import

Petro. Petro. consuming devices

CH4 CO2, SO2, NOx CO2, SO2, NOx CH4 CH4

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AIM Workshop March 2004 NIES, Tsukuba

CO2 & Non-CO2 linkage in AIM/Enduse

Gas production Transport & distribution Gas Gas export demand Delivered Gas Gas consuming devices

CH4 CH4 CO2

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AIM Workshop March 2004 NIES, Tsukuba

Scenarios

– Service projection drivers from AIM-Trend output (Reference scenario) – Moderate efficiency improvement assumptions – Declining share of biomass cookstoves – No Tax or Emissions constraint

Tax: $ 50 / tC

– Constant tax from 2010 onwards

Tax: $ 100 / tC

– Constant tax from 2010 onwards

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AIM Workshop March 2004 NIES, Tsukuba

AIM-Pakistan: BAU Results

40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 Year Mtoe Biomass Nuclear & Other renewables Coal Hydro Gas Oil

10 15 20 25 30 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 Year Mtoe Nuclear & Othe renewables Hydro Coal Oil Gas

Primary energy Primary energy use in power sector

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AIM Workshop March 2004 NIES, Tsukuba

AIM-Pakistan: BAU Results

CO2 emissions

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 Year Mt CO2 Agriculture Commercial Residential Industry - cement Industry - brick Industry - others Electricity Transport

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 Year kt CH4 Fugitive - oil & ga Fugitive - solids Rice cultivation Domestic livestoc

CH4 emissions

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AIM Workshop March 2004 NIES, Tsukuba

AIM-Pakistan: BAU Results

NOx emissions SO2 emissions

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 Year kt NOx Commercial & Agriculture Industry Electricity Residential Transport 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 Year kt SO2 Industry & others Residential Electricity Transport

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AIM Workshop March 2004 NIES, Tsukuba

AIM-Pakistan: Scenario Results

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 1 9 9 8 2 1 2 4 2 7 2 1 2 1 3 2 1 6 2 1 9 2 2 2 2 2 5 2 2 8 2 3 1 Year Mt CO2

BAU $ 50/tC $ 100/tC

Efficiency improvement in Industry, Transport; Oil to Electricity, Oil to Gas Primary energy switch from Oil to Renewables

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 Year Mt CH4

BAU $ 50/tC $ 100/tC

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 Year kt SO2 BAU $ 50/tC $ 100/tC

CO2 emissions SO2 emissions CH4 emissions

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AIM Workshop March 2004 NIES, Tsukuba

AIM-Myanmar: BAU Results

5 10 15 20 25 30 1 9 9 8 2 1 2 4 2 7 2 1 2 1 3 2 1 6 2 1 9 2 2 2 2 2 5 2 2 8 2 3 1 Year Mtoe Biomass Coal Hydro Gas Oil

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 1 9 9 8 2 1 2 4 2 7 2 1 2 1 3 2 1 6 2 1 9 2 2 2 2 2 5 2 2 8 2 3 1 Year Mtoe Hyd Oil Gas

Primary energy

Primary energy in power sector

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AIM Workshop March 2004 NIES, Tsukuba

AIM-Myanmar: BAU Results

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 Year Mt CO2 Agriculture Commercial Residential Industry - others Electricity Transport 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 1 9 9 8 2 2 2 6 2 1 2 1 4 2 1 8 2 2 2 2 2 6 2 3 Year kt CH4 Fugitive - oil & gas Fugitive - solids Rice cultivation Domestic livestock

50 100 150 200 250 300 1 9 9 8 2 1 2 4 2 7 2 1 2 1 3 2 1 6 2 1 9 2 2 2 2 2 5 2 2 8 2 3 1 Year kt NOx Commercial & Agriculture Industry Electricity Residential Transport 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 Year kt SO2 Industry & othe Residential Electricity Transport

CO2 CH4 SO2 NOx

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AIM Workshop March 2004 NIES, Tsukuba

Future Work

Disaggregate Myanmar database; Myanmar

mitigation analysis

Non-CO2 database for Bangladesh
Detailed analysis for Pakistan & Bangladesh
Validate Non-CO2 database
Costs of Non-CO2 abatement options
Other countries