Myanmar High-frequency Monitoring of Covid-19 Impacts Myanmar - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Myanmar High-frequency Monitoring of Covid-19 Impacts

Survey

The only nationally representative survey of firms in Myanmar

Closing the Development Gap

500 firms 8 rounds

The survey also covers all of Myanmar and is divided into 6 zones (Yangon, Mandalay, Chin and Dry Zone, Delta and Costal Lowland, and the Hilly zone.

12 sectors

The survey is nationally representative and is the only enterprise survey that also covers the Agriculture sector (17%). Manufacturing (33%), Retail (17%) and Services (32%) are the other sectors.

Micro & Informal too

The survey covered micro and small firms too and not just large and formal firms. 35% of the sample were micro firms and 40% were small firms. Medium firms were 19% and large firms 6%.

16 % of firms closed for an average of 2 months AND expect to stay closed for another month

Border states and more densely populated areas saw higher temporary closures

Two of the five zones are single states, Yangon and Mandalay. The Hilly Zone includes the states of Kachin, Kayah, and Shan. The Delta and Coastal Lowland Zone includes the states of Ayeyarwaddy, Rakhine, Mon, Bago, Tanintharyi, and Kayin. Chin and the Dry Zone includes the states of Chin, Sagaing, Magwe, and Nay Pyi Taw.

12% 13% 18% 20% 23%

Delta and Coastal Lowland Chin and Dry Zone Mandalay Yangon Hilly Zone

39 % of firms in the service sector closed temporarily

39% 15% 12% 6%

Service Retail and wholesale Manufacturing Agriculture

83%

• f firms

experienced reduction in sales

51%

• f firms experienced cash flow

shortages

• f firms experienced

a reduction in accessing credit

29%

Female-

• wned firms

were more likely to report negative effects from Covid-19

16% 86% 52% 32%

17% 80% 50% 25%

Temporarily closed Reduction in sales Cash flow shortages Reduction in access to credit Female ownership Non-female ownership

Firms in agriculture were hardest hit by cash flow shortages and access to credit

Agriculture firms were least impacted by reduction in sales, but their smaller profits and informal status exposed them most to cash flow shortages and access to credit

75%

89% 82% 84%

64%

52% 41% 48%42% 21% 27% 30% Agriculture Manufacturing Retail and wholesale Service Agriculture Manufacturing Retail and wholesale Service Agriculture Manufacturing Retail and wholesale Service Reduction in sales Cash flow shortages Reduction in access to credit

69% of firms saw a decline in profits compared to last year

71% 71% 68% 67% 69%

Service Manufacturing Agriculture Retail and wholesale Total

61% 56% 55% 50% 55%

Service Agriculture Retail and wholesale Manufacturing Total

The average decline in profits was 55%

36%

• f firms believe

they will go into arrears in next 3 months

27%

• f firms are NOT CONFIDENT they

will be in business in 3 months time

• f firms expect

to close within the month

7%

52% of agricultural firms expect to fall in arrears in next 3 months… …with medium and larger firms more likely to go into arrears

52% 39% 34% 24% 36%

Agriculture Service Retail and wholesale Manufacturing Total

61% 43% 39% 34% 36%

Medium (20- 99) Large (>99) Small (5-19) Micro (1-4) Total

Firms across the sectors expect sales to be 28% lower again next quarter, compared to same time last year.

• 9%
• 24%
• 24%
• 25%
• 27%
• 30%
• 30%
• 31%
• 31%
• 33%
• 44%
• 65%

Construction Food and Beverage Products Retail and Wholesale Financial Services Agriculture and Aquaculture Food and Beverage Services Health and Pharmaceutical… Other Manufacturing Textiles and Garments Accommodation Information Technology and… Other Services

36% of firms shifted to delivery services and only 6% shifted to remote working arrangements

36% 26% 19% 6%

Started or increased delivery or carry-on Changed its production or services offered partically or completely Adopted online/digital platform for major business functions such as sales Started or increased remote work arrangement for its workforce

Only 10% of firms applied for government support Agricultural firms along with micro and small firms had the lowest applications

15% 12% 8% 6% 10%

Service Manufacturing Retail and wholesale Agriculture Total

30% 23% 20% 3% 10%

Large (>99) Medium (20- 99) Small (5-19) Micro (1-4) Total

38% of

firms said access to loans/credit guarantees were the most needed government support

Next steps Round 2 collected (June) Round 3 start next week