Myanmar High- frequency Monitoring of COVID-19 Impacts Results - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

• Results from

Round 1 (May 2020)

Myanmar High- frequency Monitoring of COVID-19 Impacts

Round 1

Round 1 Myanmar Covid–19 Monitorıng Round 1 Myanmar COVID-19 Monitoring

Background

• Myanmar’s economy is expected to suffer

greatly from COVID-19, with GDP growth rate expected to fall to 0.5 percent in fiscal year 2019/2020.

• The pandemic and containment measures

are likely to affect households’ livelihoods through losses in employment and income, due to disruption in large employment sectors.

• Up-to-date evidence is required to assess the

impact of the crisis and thus inform policies to protect poor and vulnerable households.

Round 1 Myanmar Covid–19 Monitorıng Round 1 Myanmar COVID-19 Monitoring

High-frequency phone survey – households

Monthly survey of 1500 households starting May 2020 to monitor welfare changes

High-frequency phone survey – firms

Monthly survey of 500 enterprises starting May 2020 to monitor changes in economic activities and adaptation

Community assessment

Key informant interviews to assess changes within communities, with a focus on social cohesion

Myanmar COVID-19 Monitoring

Round 1 Myanmar Covid–19 Monitorıng Round 1 Myanmar COVID-19 Monitoring

Highlights (1)

Employment § Job losses affect 54% of households’ main

• workers. Agricultural workers are the least

resilient with more than 60% of them having lost employment. § Job losses are felt across the welfare distribution. § Among households’ main workers still working about 55% have experienced reduced income. Agricultural workers were particularly hit. § Reductions in income affect more households in the bottom quintiles. § Household businesses are not making as much as they used to. Since March 2020, about 80%

• f households in retail trade have lost earnings.

§ Half of farming households cannot perform their activities as usual. § In May 2020, about one out of ten rice growing farmers is concerned they may lack access to finance to be able to plant this season. § Difficulties in farming are experienced by households across the welfare distribution.

Round 1 Myanmar Covid–19 Monitorıng Round 1 Myanmar COVID-19 Monitoring

Highlights (2)

Livelihood changes § Households are not able to diversify as much as they used to before March 2020. About three quarters of households have lost an activity or experienced reduced income. § About 12% of households were receiving remittances in the last 12 months, but 73%

• f them have received less or no

remittances since the beginning of COVID- 19 containment measures. Food security § Households are able to access to food, but about 10% of households ate less in the last seven days than before March 2020. Coping mechanisms § About half of households have reduced food

• r non-food consumption to cope with

shocks. § Food security could become a concern.

Round 1 Myanmar Covid–19 Monitorıng Round 1 Myanmar COVID-19 Monitoring

Survey 01

Round 1 Myanmar Covid–19 Monitorıng Round 1 Myanmar COVID-19 Monitoring

Design

q Method: Panel survey conducted monthly through 20-25 minute phone interview on 1,500 households starting May 2020. Central Statistical Organization providing technical support to implementation. q Tracked indicators: Labor market and livelihood strategies, food security and poverty, households’ coping strategies in the first round. Behaviors, access to health and to education, and migration will follow in later rounds. q Respondents were sampled from an existing list created by a private firm. Respondents are adult women and men, irrespectively of whether they are household heads. q Estimates are representative at the Union level.

Round 1 Myanmar Covid–19 Monitorıng Round 1 Myanmar COVID-19 Monitoring

Sample distribution of MLCS 2017 and HFPS 2020 is very similar

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 MLCS (unweighted) HFPS (unweighted) MLCS (weighted) HFPS (weighted)

Proportion of households

Households by urban/rural

RURAL URBAN 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 K a c h i n K a y a h K a y i n C h i n S a g a i n g T a n i n t h a r y i B a g

• M

a g w a y M a n d a l a y M

• n

R a k h i n e Y a n g

• n

S h a n A y e y a r w a d y N a y P y i T a w

Proportion of households States/Regions

Households by S/R

MLCS (unweighted) HFPS (unweighted) MLCS (weighted) HFPS (weighted)

Round 1 Myanmar Covid–19 Monitorıng Round 1 Myanmar COVID-19 Monitoring

… strengthening confidence in the representativeness of the HFPS

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 4 5 6-20

Proportion of households Categories of household size

Household size

MLCS (unweighted) HFPS (unweighted) MLCS (weighted) HFPS (weighted) 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 [0 - 0.1] [0.1 - 0.3] [0.3 - 0.4] [0.4 - 0.5] [0.5 - 1]

Proportion of households Categories of dependency ratio

Dependency ratio

MLCS (unweighted) HFPS (unweighted) MLCS (weighted) HFPS (weighted)

Round 1 Myanmar Covid–19 Monitorıng Round 1 Myanmar COVID-19 Monitoring

Implementation plan

Round 1 18 May – 03 June Modules: employment, coping, food security, asset

• wnerships

Round 2 15 – 30 June Modules: employment, coping, behaviors, migration, food access and security Round 3 July 2020 Modules: employment, coping, migration, food access and security, poverty Round 4 to 8 by end

• f November 2020

Round 1 Myanmar Covid–19 Monitorıng Round 1 Myanmar COVID-19 Monitoring

Demography02

11

Round 1 Myanmar Covid–19 Monitorıng Round 1 Myanmar COVID-19 Monitoring

42 58

Gender

Women Men 0.21 0.20 0.63 3.03 0.47 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 Children 0-2 Children 3-4 Children 5-14 Members 15- 64 Members 65

• ver

Number of members

Household composition

86 432 2 4

Main language spoken

Burmese Rakhine Karen Shan Dawei Other 37 48 15

Age group

15-34 35-54 55 over

HFPS aimed to capture a diversity of respondents and households

Round 1 Myanmar Covid–19 Monitorıng Round 1 Myanmar COVID-19 Monitoring

Employment & Income 03

13

Round 1 Myanmar Covid–19 Monitorıng Round 1 Myanmar COVID-19 Monitoring

One of the channels of the COVID-19 impacts on welfare can be measured

• Through changes in employment, in own

businesses, or in farm activities

• Through reduction of income from these

activities

• Through reduction of non-labor income from

remittances

• Looking at the situation in May 2020 and

comparing that to the situation before March 2020

Round 1 Myanmar Covid–19 Monitorıng Round 1 Myanmar COVID-19 Monitoring

Three out of four households have one main worker engaged in any type of work before the end of March 2020…

Work disruption

Round 1 Myanmar Covid–19 Monitorıng Round 1 Myanmar COVID-19 Monitoring

However by May 2020, 54% of them have stopped working and 55% of the

• nes still working

are earning less

Main workers

Stop working

54%

Continue working

46%

Reduced income

55%

Same/more income

44%

Round 1 Myanmar Covid–19 Monitorıng Round 1 Myanmar COVID-19 Monitoring

Stopped working

By May 2020, two out three workers engaged in the agriculture sector have lost their job. This is critical given agriculture was one of the main sectors of employment before March 2020. The retail sector, second largest sector of employment, was badly hit: nearly half of main households’ workers engaged in retail sector have lost their job.

67% 53% 57% 37% 45% 48% 44% 62% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% A g r i c u l t u r e M a n u f a c t u r i n g C

• n

s t r u c t i

• n

O t h e r i n d u s t r y R e t a i l & P e r s

• n

a l s e r v i c e s T

• u

r i s m & t r a n s p

• r

t P u b l i c & P r i v a t e a d m i n . O t h e r s e r v i c e s Proportion of households Sector of employment

Stopped working, by sector

Round 1 Myanmar Covid–19 Monitorıng Round 1 Myanmar COVID-19 Monitoring

Stopped working

The share of households’ main workers who stopped working is the same across all quintiles.

56% 54% 55% 54% 55% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Proportion of households’ main worker Welfare quintiles

Stop working, by welfare quintiles (%)

Round 1 Myanmar Covid–19 Monitorıng Round 1 Myanmar COVID-19 Monitoring

Among main workers who are still working 55% have experienced reduced income.

Main worker

Stop working

54%

Continue working

46%

Reduced income

55%

Same/more income

44%

21% 54% 25%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% proportion

Employment and income status as share of all main worker

Stopped working Decreased income Still working

Main workers’ employment and income

Round 1 Myanmar Covid–19 Monitorıng Round 1 Myanmar COVID-19 Monitoring

Still working but facing income losses

Nearly seven out of ten workers engaged in agricultural sector have experienced reduced income in May 2020. Six out of ten workers engaged in retail or in tourism/transport have experienced reduced income. Workers in public or private administration are more resilient.

68% 43% 59% 52% 60% 60% 14% 32% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% A g r i c u l t u r e M a n u f a c t u r i n g C

• n

s t r u c t i

• n

O t h e r i n d u s t r y R e t a i l & P e r s

• n

a l s e r v i c e s T

• u

r i s m & t r a n s p

• r

t P u b l i c & P r i v a t e a d m i n . O t h e r s e r v i c e s

Households with reduced income, by sector (%)

Round 1 Myanmar Covid–19 Monitorıng Round 1 Myanmar COVID-19 Monitoring

Reduced income

In relative terms, more households’ workers in the bottom welfare quantiles have experienced reduced income than households’ workers in the top welfare quintile.

59% 56% 56% 54% 52% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5

Reduced income, by welfare quintiles (%)

Round 1 Myanmar Covid–19 Monitorıng Round 1 Myanmar COVID-19 Monitoring

One out of four households has a business in the last 12 months…

Household businesses

Round 1 Myanmar Covid–19 Monitorıng Round 1 Myanmar COVID-19 Monitoring

• 60% of these businesses are in

retail, 10% in personal services, and about 9% in agriculture (outside farming).

• Losses in business earnings

affect all sectors. 80% of retail businesses having lost earnings.

Three out of four household businesses are losing earnings

3 1 9 4 15 34 26 51 17 16 5 56 66 74 49 73 84 85 17 6 10 20 40 60 80 100 Agriculture Manufacturing Construction Transportation Retail Personal Services Education

Share of household with reduced business earnings, by business type (%)

DK More Same Less No income

Round 1 Myanmar Covid–19 Monitorıng Round 1 Myanmar COVID-19 Monitoring

Household businesses with reduced earnings

In relative terms, more households in the top welfare quintiles have businesses experiencing reduced earnings, compared to households in the bottom welfare quintile.

72% 75% 73% 75% 77% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5

Share of households with reduced business earnings, by welfare quintile (%)

Round 1 Myanmar Covid–19 Monitorıng Round 1 Myanmar COVID-19 Monitoring

Half of the households are working in farm activities:

• 71% cultivating land;
• 58% growing crops;
• 50% owning livestock; and
• 3% doing aquaculture.

But half cannot farm.

Household farming activities

Round 1 Myanmar Covid–19 Monitorıng Round 1 Myanmar COVID-19 Monitoring

Households not able to farm

More households in the bottom quintile are engaged in farming activities. However, issues to farm since March 2020 affect households in all welfare quintiles.

66% 61% 55% 48% 36% 57% 56% 55% 54% 54%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5

Farming households, by welfare quintiles (%)

Farm activities Not able to farm

Round 1 Myanmar Covid–19 Monitorıng Round 1 Myanmar COVID-19 Monitoring

• 43% of agricultural

households are planting rice.

• But 26% of them are

facing problems to plant rice.

• About 12% of rice growing

farmers are facing financial problems.

Rice cultivation

1% 3% 4% 5% 5% 7% 7% 12% 26% 35% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Fertilizer Pests / Insects / Animals Lack Of Seeds Lack Of Other Inputs Lack Of Tools / Equipment Too Much Rain / Flooding Hard To Find Outside Labor Financial problem Not Enough Rain Delayed / Late Rains Household Working Less

Type of obstacles faced by rice growing households (%)

Round 1 Myanmar Covid–19 Monitorıng Round 1 Myanmar COVID-19 Monitoring

Households have diversified livelihood sources and 12% of households also receive remittances.

Diversified livelihood sources

Round 1 Myanmar Covid–19 Monitorıng Round 1 Myanmar COVID-19 Monitoring

Before March 2020, about 17% of households were engaged in two sectors. 13% had no activity. In May 2020, fewer households rely on agriculture for their livelihood and more than 1 out of 5 households have no activities.

Households’ sector participation

Change in sector participation

Before end of March 2020 By May 2020

Round 1 Myanmar Covid–19 Monitorıng Round 1 Myanmar COVID-19 Monitoring

Fewer sources of livelihoods

On average, 52% of households have experienced disruptions in their activity since March 2020. In addition, 73% of households usually receiving remittances have received less in remittances.

57% 55% 52% 50% 44% 73% 72% 75% 73% 69%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5

Share of households with reduced labor income or remittances, by welfare quintiles (%)

Livelihood losses Reduced remittances

Round 1 Myanmar Covid–19 Monitorıng Round 1 Myanmar COVID-19 Monitoring

Food access and security 04

31

Round 1 Myanmar Covid–19 Monitorıng Round 1 Myanmar COVID-19 Monitoring

Food access and security

Households do not report any issues accessing the main food products. About 11% of households report eating less than before March 2020.

89 95 98 93 20 40 60 80 100 Ate less than before Hungry but not eating Not eating whole day Ran out of food

Food security (%)

Yes - Often Yes - Sometimes Yes - Seldom No

Round 1 Myanmar Covid–19 Monitorıng Round 1 Myanmar COVID-19 Monitoring

Coping mechanisms05

33

Round 1 Myanmar Covid–19 Monitorıng Round 1 Myanmar COVID-19 Monitoring

Households are adopting coping strategies that could worsen their welfare in the long run. Half are reducing food consumption or non-food consumption. A third of households are using their savings.

Coping strategies

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Assistance NGO Rent subsidies Insurance policy Unemployment check Advanced payment Sold harvest in advance Sale of assets Additional activities Utility subsidies Done nothing Gov't food assistance Friends assistance Credited purchases Delayed payment Loan financial institution Borrowed friends/family Relied on savings Reduced food consumption Reduced non-food consumption

Households' coping strategies (%)

Round 1 Myanmar Covid–19 Monitorıng Round 1 Myanmar COVID-19 Monitoring

Implications

35

Closing the Development Gap

Employment & income losses

Jobs and income losses are huge

• concerns. Compared to other

countries, agriculture does not represent a buffer as farming households are also suffering.

Livelihood diversification

Households have fewer ways to diversify their livelihood sources as all sectors of the economy are

• affected. It is very hard for them

to switch activities.

Food security & coping mechanisms

Concerns over food security could increase, as households are reducing food consumption to cope with shocks. Close monitoring is required.

Round 1 Myanmar Covid–19 Monitorıng Round 1 Myanmar COVID-19 Monitoring

Next steps

• Discussions with relevant stakeholders, with

support from CSO

• HFPS activities

– Round 2 data collection completed (July 2020), panel constructed over 1150 households. – Modules: food security (follow-up), migration, and behaviors as part of Round 2. – Preparing for the new school year and adding questions on access to schools in Round 3 or 4 depending on school reopening.

Round 1 Myanmar Covid–19 Monitorıng Round 1 Myanmar COVID-19 Monitoring

Thank you

• Results from

Round 1 (May 2020)

myanmar@worldbank.org