Working Futures 2014–2024 www.gov.uk/ukces
Introduction The presentation: Working Futures 2024 Sets out the background PAST NOW FUTURE to the Working Futures model Managers, Directors and Senior Offjcials Associate Professional Examines economic Professional Occupations and Technical and sectoral prospects Administrative and Secretarial s e d a r T Explores the outlook d Caring, Leisure e l and Other Service l i k S Health and Education for skills by assessing Public Admin, Sales and Customer occupational prospects Service Process, Plant and and the implications Machine Operatives for qualifjcations. Elementary www.gov.uk/ukces Occupations www.gov.uk/ukces
What is Working Futures? Why use Working Futures? The main purpose of Working Futures is to provide a rich source of information that can inform choice and facilitate evidence based rather than anecdotal decision making. For employers , it gives an indication of future requirements for skilled labour, including by industry sector and occupation. For individuals , it gives a sense of where the future jobs may be – and whether they’re in growth industries, or meeting a need to replace retiring workers. For education and training providers it gives an insight into the skills that are likely to be in the greatest demand in future. And for policymakers , it allows us to think about whether we’re going to have the right people in the right jobs in the future. www.gov.uk/ukces
Methodology The projections are based on Comprehensive it covers the entire UK labour market, investigating how difgerent industry sectors’ the use of a multi-sectoral, prospects interact, with some expanding and some regional macroeconomic contracting, and each changing in difgerent ways. model, combined with occupational, replacement Robust it draws on the full range of published statistics to provide an employment baseline by sector, demand and qualifjcation occupation and local area, and uses sophisticated modules. modelling to forecast how these difgerent dimensions are likely to evolve. Data sources that underpin The results take account of the Working Futures include: The Offjce for National latest offjcial data published by Statistics’ UK National and Regional Accounts, Input- the Offjce for National Statistics. Output Supply and Use Tables, the Labour Force Survey and the 2011 Census. Granular by providing a breakdown by sector and occupation, it allows us to understand not only the likely broad changes in the labour market, but also the implications for the skills mix in each industry sector. www.gov.uk/ukces
Labour market context Employment trend 1990-2024 40,000,000 35,000,000 30,000,000 25,000,000 20,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Source: Working Futures www.gov.uk/ukces
Labour market context Changes in employment in the UK by gender and status, 2014-24 1200 Full-time Part-time Self-employed 1000 800 Employment (000’s) 600 400 200 0 -200 Male Female Total Source: Working Futures www.gov.uk/ukces
Sectoral prospects Performance of broad sectors of the economy by forecast output and employment change, 2014-2024 Primary sector & utilities 20 a Manufacturing b h Construction c 15 f c k Wholesale and retail trade d Transport and storage l e 10 Employment % Change 2014 - 2024 Accommodation and food f p Media g d Information technology h 5 o Finance and insurance i q i g Real estate j j m Professional services k 0 n e -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 Support services l Public administration and defence m -5 Education n Health and social work o a b Arts and entertainment p -10 Bubble size represents the Other services q percentage of the workforce employed in the sector in 2024 Note: Public administration and -15 defence excludes H.M. Forces GVA % Change 2014 - 2024 Source: Working Futures www.gov.uk/ukces
Sector Profjle Primary sector & utilities Activity is expected to grow modestly in this sector, leading to a fall in its share of total output. It is anticipated that competition from imports and cost pressures will drive effjciency savings and productivity improvements, leading to a decline in employment over the course of the decade. Industry profjle Sub-sectors 2014 Key factors infmuencing the sector: 837,000 2014 2014 2014 2.5% 4.5% £68,253m Agriculture, 2024 765,000 forestry and Agricultural output is expected Coal, oil & gas production fjshing to grow modestly, driven by is expected to fall, due 2024 2024 2024 changing consumer patterns. to dwindling domestic Mining and 2.2% 3.9% £72,730m However, productivity reserves and high costs quarrying improvements are expected to of extraction relative to Electricity, gas, Total Share of total GVA: £ (£2011m) Share of UK result in a fall in employment. imports. steam and air employment employment output (GVA) conditioning Water supply, Energy policies and environmental sewerage, waste Utilities output is forecast to legislation are likely to grow in management grow modestly, driven partly Trends in output, productivity and employment importance, creating long-term by an anticipated increase in opportunities and challenges for household demand. the sector. 2014 - 2024 Sector UK Average -72,000 1,810,000 Employment change (n) -8.6% 5.4 % Employment change (%) Employment levels in utilities 0.6% 2.2 % will grow more slowly as GVA growth (% p.a) effjciency measures will 1.5 1.7 Productivity growth (% p.a) reduce labour demand. 330,000 13,110,000 Replacement demand (n) 1 www.gov.uk/ukces
Sector Profjle Manufacturing Manufacturing is forecast to grow at a slower rate than the wider economy over the next decade, in the face of intense competition from overseas. Its share of total output will decline slightly. Productivity growth is expected to lead to a continued decline in employment, with traditional roles being particularly afgected. Industry profjle Sub-sectors 2014 Key factors infmuencing the sector: 2,591,000 2014 2014 2014 7.8% 9.7% £147,439m Food, drink & tobacco 2024 Textiles & clothing 2,350,000 Future output growth in Employment is expected Wood & paper manufacturing is expected to to stagnate or fall despite products 2024 2024 2024 be constrained by increasing the growth in output, 6.7% T R T 9.3% IMPORT O R O £175,430m P M P competition from overseas driven mostly by increasing M I Printing & recording I manufacturers. automation in the sector. Coke & petroleum Total Share of total GVA: £ (£2011m) Share of UK Chemicals & chemical employment employment output (GVA) products Rubber & plastic Global population growth, as New processes and techniques products & other well as a rising proportion of such as 3D printing, additive non-metallic mineral individuals with middle-class IMPORT and composite manufacturing IMPORT I M P R O T IMPORT IMPORT incomes, are expected to products and plastic electronics are Trends in output, productivity and employment T R M I O P O P R M T I increase global consumption of changing the shape of Pharmaceuticals manufactured goods. production within the sector i . Metals & metal 2014 - 2024 Sector UK Average products Electronics -241,000 1,810,000 Employment change (n) Global growth in advanced Electrical equipment -9.3 % 5.4 % Employment change (%) manufacturing demand will drive The availability of skilled Machinery an increase in domestic activity, labour will be an important 1.8 % 2.2 % GVA growth (% p.a) Motor vehicles especially for industries in which consideration for the Other transport 2.8 1.7 the UK has specialised, such as employment outlook in the Productivity growth (% p.a) aerospace, pharmaceuticals, and long-term. equipment 885,000 13,110,000 Replacement demand (n) other technology-intensive industries. Other manufacturing & repair www.gov.uk/ukces
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