Projection of World Socio-economic and Industrial Activities for - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Projection of World Socio-economic and Industrial Activities for AIM/Enduse[Global]

Osamu Akashi (Kyoto University) The 13th AIM International Workshop 16-18, February 2008 @NIES, Tsukuba, Japan

Outline of AIM Enduse[Global]

Expansion of Enduse[Country] to cover world Target regions: 23 world regions

(Japan, China, India, Indonesia, Korea, Thailand, Other South- east Asia, Other South Asia, Middle East, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, USA, EU-15 in Western Europe, EU-10 in Eastern Europe, Russia, Argentine, Brazil, Mexico, Other Latin America, South Africa, Other Africa, Rest of World)

Time horizon: mid-long term (～2030, ～2050) Bottom-up type model Simulate GHG emissions under given energy

service demand such as production of steel, transport volume, space heating, etc.

Overall framework

• f Enduse[Global]

Industrial Sector Residential Sector Transport Sector

23 region Enduse model

( Transportation, Space heating etc) Macro economic indicators World trade balance equation Production function Consumption function Export and import function Production of tradable commodity Technology DB International price Domestic price International trade model ・ Initial cost ・ Energy consumption per operation ・ Service supply per operation ・ etc Transformation Sector Service Sector Final Energy Demand Production Export, Import Socio-economic macro frame model Energy service demand model Population scenario

GHG emission

Macro economic indicators Energy Service Demand

Outline of socio-economic macro frame model

Macroeconomic model which estimates macro economic

indicators such as GDP, final consumption expenditure, capital formation, value added of 3 sectors

Supply-side model (GDP is estimated from capital stock

and labor force)

Input is population 27 equations for each region Parameters are estimated by econometric approach

(historical data is used to estimate parameters)

Structure of socio-economic macro frame model

Private final consumption expenditure Gross capital formation Capital Stock Labor force Population (age: 15-64) Time trend Value added of agriculture, industry and service GDP

Endogenous variable Exogenous variable

Model performance test

Dynamic simulation (1960 – 2005) Comparing simulated value with reported value Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE*) are used

as index

Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE)

G D P V a l u e a d d e d

• f

a g r i c u l t u r e V a l u e a d d e d

• f

i n d u s t r y V a l u e a d d e d

• f

s e r v i c e G D P V a l u e a d d e d

• f

a g r i c u l t u r e V a l u e a d d e d

• f

i n d u s t r y V a l u e a d d e d

• f

s e r v i c e J a p a n 1 . 2 6 . 9 3 . 6 1 . 9 U S A 1 . 7 6 . 5 2 . 6 1 . 6 C h i n a 3 . 5 6 . 5 7 . 1 8 . 4 E U

• 1

5 i n W e s t e r n E u r

• p

e 1 . 8 3 . 2 . 1 1 . 9 I n d i a 4 . 1 6 . 1 6 . 2 6 . 2 E U

• 1

i n E a s t e r n E u r

• p

e 3 . 4 7 . 6 4 . 4 4 . 3 I n d

• n

e s i a 2 . 1 4 . 5 5 . 9 4 . R u s s i a 7 . 7 6 . 3 8 . 2 9 . 6 K

• r

e a 4 . 3 5 . 8 4 . 6 6 . 9 A r g e n t i n e 3 . 9 1 3 . 4 7 . 1 7 . 8 T h a i l a n d 1 . 9 8 . 8 3 . 2 . 4 B r a z i l 2 . 2 1 . 2 9 . 5 9 . 5 O t h e r S

• u

t h

• e

a s t A s i a 4 . 1 5 . 4 . 7 5 . 2 M e x i c

• 2

. 4 9 . 2 4 . 3 3 . O t h e r S

• u

t h A s i a 2 . 1 3 . 1 3 . 1 3 . O t h e r L a t i n A m e r i c a 3 . 5 . 9 5 . 4 . 2 M i d d l e E a s t 4 . 6 1 4 . 9 9 . 7 8 . 9 S

• u

t h A f r i c a 3 . 1 7 . 7 3 . 2 4 . 6 A u s t r a l i a 1 . 8 1 7 . 8 5 . 1 3 . 6 O t h e r A f r i c a 5 . 2 9 . 7 . 1 5 . 4 N e w Z e a l a n d 1 . 5 1 . 2 3 . 9 3 . R e s t

• f

W

• r

l d 2 . 6 9 . 8 4 . 6 5 . 3 C a n a d a 3 . 5 6 . 9 6 . 3 2 . 5 ( % )

MAPE = Ye: estimated value, Yr: reported value

t t t t t

Ye Yr Yr −

∑ ∑

• Annual GDP growth rate of the world is projected to be 2.8%/year

during 2000 - 2050

• It’s very similar to B2 of SRES scenario

Simulation result (1)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 I n d e x ( 2 = 1 ) r e s u l t S R E S

• A

1 B S R E S

• A

2 S R E S

• B

1 S R E S

• B

2

• Simulation 2000 - 2050
• Medium population of World population prospects (UN, 2006) are used as

population scenario

World GDP

Simulation result (2)

Annual GDP growth rate (2000-2050) of regions

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 W

• r

l d J a p a n C h i n a I n d i a I n d

• n

e s i a K

• r

e a T h a i l a n d O t h e r A s i a U S A E U

• 2

5 R u s s i a B r a z i l O t h e r L a t i n A m e r i c a A f r i c a O t h e r D e v e l

• p

e d R e g i

• n

O t h e r D e v e l

• p

i n g R e g i

• n

% / y e a r

Framework of Enduse[Global]

Industrial Sector Residential Sector Transport Sector

23 region Enduse model

( Transportation, Space heating etc) Macro economic indicators World trade balance equation Production function Consumption function Export and import function Production of steel Technology DB International price Domestic price International trade model [steel] ・ Initial cost ・ Energy consumption per operation ・ Service supply per operation ・ etc Transformation Sector Service Sector Final Energy Demand Production Export, Import Socio-economic macro frame model Energy service demand model Population scenario

GHG emission

Macro economic indicators Energy Service Demand

Why international trade model [steel] is needed ?

Steel is internationally traded

（ Amount of Internationally traded steel is 32 % of world steel production in 2005）

Production of steel in each region depends not only

consumption but also export and import (Production = Consumption + export - import)

Export and import of steel are needed to be modeled to

project future steel production

Outline of international trade model

Partial equilibrium model Domestic market and international market reach

equilibrium with steel price as intervening parameter

Input is value added of industry of 23 regions Main outputs are production, consumption, export and

import of steel for 23 regions

323 equations Parameters are estimated by econometric approach

(historical data is used to estimate parameters)

Structure of int. trade model

Endogenous Exogenous

Domestic market equilibrium： Consumptioni = Productioni－Exporti＋Importi World market equilibrium： Exporti ＝ Importi

∑

i

i

∑

i: region

Model performance test

Dynamic simulation (1993 – 2005) Comparing simulated value with reported value Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) are used

as indicator

P r

• d

u c t i

• n

P r

• d

u c t i

• n

W

• r

l d 3 . 9 C a n a d a 3 . 2 J a p a n 2 . 7 U S A 4 . 2 C h i n a 1 1 . 4 E U

• 1

5 i n W e s t e r n E u r

• p

e 2 . 3 I n d i a 3 . 2 E U

• 1

i n E a s t e r n E u r

• p

e 6 . 5 I n d

• n

e s i a 2 2 . 8 R u s s i a 3 . 4 K

• r

e a 2 . 9 A r g e n t i n e 5 . 6 T h a i l a n d 9 . B r a z i l 4 . 9 O t h e r S

• u

t h

• e

a s t A s i a 9 . 1 M e x i c

• 6

. 9 O t h e r S

• u

t h A s i a 5 . 9 O t h e r L a t i n A m e r i c a 4 . 3 M i d d l e E a s t 3 . 4 S

• u

t h A f r i c a 3 . 7 A u s t r a l i a 9 . 9 O t h e r A f r i c a 9 . 2 N e w Z e a l a n d 5 . 7 R e s t

• f

W

• r

l d 2 . 5 ( % )

MAPE = Ye: estimated value , Yr: reported value

t t t t t

Ye Yr Yr −

∑ ∑

Simulation result

• Simulation from 2005 to 2050

Steel production (mil. ton)

5 1 1 5 2 2 5 2 5 2 1 2 1 5 2 2 2 2 5 2 3 2 3 5 2 4 2 4 5 2 5 m i l . t

• n

O t h e r D e v e l

• p

i n g R e g i

• n

O t h e r D e v e l

• p

e d R e g i

• n

B r a z i l R u s s i a E U

• 2

5 U S A K

• r

e a I n d i a C h i n a J a p a n

Remaining Task

Comparing simulated result of GDP and steel

production with other research

Development of other industries model

(Cement, Paper and pulp, Petrochemical industry )

Run Enduse[global] model using those result as

input