Non Non- -CO2 Emissions Analysis: CO2 Emissions Analysis: - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The 18th AIM International Workshop Ohyama Memorial Hall at NIES 14 15 December 2012 14-15 December 2012

Non Non-

• CO2 Emissions Analysis:

CO2 Emissions Analysis: Expansion of AIM/ Expansion of AIM/Enduse Enduse[Global] [Global] Tatsuya HANAOKA

N i l I i f E i l S di National Institute for Environmental Studies

Topics Topics

1 M j t f AIM/E d [Gl b l] i

• 1. Major outcomes of AIM/Enduse[Global] in

FY2011-FY2012

• 2. Remaining issues for analyzing technological

f ibilit f “2 d t t” d “50% feasibility of “2 degree target” and “50% reduction target”

• 3. Fluorocarbons emissions analysis and

H it i t t i A i i How it important in Asia regions

Major Outcomes of AIM/ Major Outcomes of AIM/Enduse Enduse[Global] [Global] in FY2011 in FY2011-

• FY2012

FY2012

• 1. Technology options for meeting a 2.6W/m2 target are evaluated in Asia & World.
• 2. Top five key technologies are CCS, solar, wind, biomass, and biofuel which in total

account for 60% of global GHG emissions reduction in 2050 account for 60% of global GHG emissions reduction in 2050.

• 3. If the use of CCS or biomass is limited, cumulative GHG abatement cost until 2050

increases considerably. CCS and biomass have a vital role in curbing mitigation costs

Source) Akashi, O., Hijioka, Y., Masui, T., Hanaoka, T., and Kainuma, M. (2012) GHG emission scenarios in Asia and the world: The Key technologies for significant reduction, Energy Economics 34:s346-s358

Major Outcomes of AIM/ Major Outcomes of AIM/Enduse Enduse[Global] [Global] in FY2011 in FY2011-

• FY2012

FY2012

• 1. Technological feasibility of achieving a 50% global GHG emission reduction target in

2050 and its transition in 2020 are evaluated. 2 MAC to achieve the target is $150/tCO2 eq in 2020 $600/tCO2 eq in 2050

• 2. MAC to achieve the target is $150/tCO2 eq in 2020, $600/tCO2 eq in 2050.

3. Additional investment for achieving the target is US$6.0 trillion by 2020 and US$73 trillion by 2050 (corresponding to 0.7% and 1.8% of the world GDP, respectively).

Source) Akashi, O. and Hanaoka, T. (2012) Technological feasibility and costs of achieving a 50 % reduction of global GHG emissions by 2050: mid-and long-term perspective, Sustainability Science, 7:139-156

Remaining Issues Remaining Issues

for analyzing feasibility of 2 degree target for analyzing feasibility of 2 degree target

• 1. Strengthening mitigation options in the demand-side
• Residential sector
• Residential sector
• Industry sector
• 2. Updating constraints in the supply-side

p g pp y

• Potentials&costs of renewables (biomass)
• Tracking power plants data based on LPS
• 3. Reassembling datasets in non-energy & non-CO2 sectors
• Fluorocarbons sector, including Non-Kyoto Gas (i.e. CFCs, HCFCs)
• CH4 emissions in waste sector

Today’s Topic

• CH4 emissions in waste sector
• 4. Co-benefits of reducing global non-CO2 emissions (SO2, NOx, etc)

Today s Topic

• 5. Discussions on service demands and their transitions
• 6. Updating AIM/Enduse itself and improving interface
• 7. Strengthening linkage with CGE[Global]

Environmental Impacts of major gases Environmental Impacts of major gases

Gas ODP GWP(SAR) GWP(AR4) Major sectors CFC-11 1.0 4000 4750 Closed/Open foam, Aerosols, etc CFC 12 1 0 8500 10900 R f i t ( t bil i diti i f i ti t ） CFC CFC-12 1.0 8500 10900 Refrigerant (automobile air-conditioning, refrigeration etc） CFC-113 0.8 5000 6130 Solvent (Electronic component, dry-cleaning etc） CFC-114 0.8 9300 10000 Open foam HCFC 22 0 055 1700 1810 Refrigerant (room air conditioning commercial refrigeration etc） HCFC HCFC-22 0.055 1700 1810 Refrigerant (room air-conditioning, commercial refrigeration etc） HCFC-141b 0.11 630 725 Closed foam, Open foam, Solvent(Electronic component), etc HCFC-142b 0.065 2000 2310 Open foam HFC 23 11700 14800 By product of HCFC 22 production HFC HFC-23 11700 14800 By-product of HCFC-22 production HFC-134a 1300 1430 Refrigerant, Closed/Open foam, Aerosols, HFC-152a 140 124 Aerosols, Closed foam HFC-32 650 675 Mixed refrigerants HFC HFC 32 650 675 Mixed refrigerants HFC-125 2800 3500 Mixed refrigerants HFC-143a 3800 4470 Mixed refrigerants HFC-227ea 2900 3220 Aerosols, Fire Extinguishers , g PFC CF4 6500 7390 AL production, Semiconductor Manufacturing, etc C2F6 9200 12200 AL production, Semiconductor Manufacturing, etc SF6 SF6 23900 22800 Semiconductor Manufacturing, Electric Utilities, etc

Note1) GWP values in IPCC SAR (Climate Change 1995) are used for GHGs national inventory reports under UNFCCC, because of the stipulation in the Kyoto Protocol Note2) GWP values in IPCC AR4 (Climate Change 2007) are the latest and will be used for GHGs national inventory under UNFCCC, after 2015 (i.e. when we report emissions in 2013).

Scale of Fluorocarbon Emissions Scale of Fluorocarbon Emissions

CO2 emissions per person in 2010 in Japan = 9.31 tCO2

+ + + + + =around 8~9

Similar

1 room air-conditioner is hermetically sealed around 800 g of HCFC-22 refrigerant = around 1.4 t-CO2 eq (if it is released to the atmosphere at the time of disposal)

tCO2 eq

a ou d t CO eq ( t s e eased to t e at

• sp e e at t e t

e o d sposa )

CO2 emissions per household in 2010 in Japan = 4.76 tCO2

+ + + = around 2-3

Around half

+

1 refrigerator around 150 g of HFC-134a refrigerant = around 0.2 t-CO2 eq

+ + = around 2 3

tCO2 eq

+ 2 room air-conditioner around 800 g of HCFC-22 refrigerant = around 1.4 t-CO2 eq + 1 car air-conditioner around 500-700 g of HFC-134a = around 1.1 t-CO2 eq (if they are released to the atmosphere at the time of disposal)

Background information: Background information: International Regimes and Issues International Regimes and Issues

Issue1) Insufficient linkage between the Kyoto Protocol and the Montreal Protocol

Protocol Regulation Target gas

Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Ozone Depleting Substances (ODS) ( ) ( )

KYOTO Emissions CO2, CH4, H2O, HFCs, PFCs, SF6 Yes No MONTREAL Productions Consumptions CFCs, HCFCs, Halons, Carbon tetrachloride, 1,1,1-trichloroethane, Methyl bromide Yes Yes

I 2) Ph t h d l f d ti d ti d th M t l P t l

• ODSs are also GHGs, but no international regulation on ODS emissions.
• They have been emitted without measures, in developed/developing countries

How large emissions in CO2? Q1

Issue 2) Phase-out schedule of production and consumption under the Montreal Protocol

80 100

• ut

se year] 20 40 60 Phase-o [% below bas 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

CFCs [Article5 ≒ Developing] CFCs [Non-Article5 ≒ Developed] HCFCs [Article5 ≒ Developing] HCFCs [Non-Article5 ≒ Developed]

• CFCs was abolished, but banked CFCs will be released at the time of disposal.
• HCFCs is not yet regulated in developing countries and produced large amounts.

Phase-out is far from enough? Q2

Background information: Background information: International Regimes and Issues International Regimes and Issues

Issue3) Limitations of financial/technological mechanism under the Montreal Protocol

 Montreal Multilateral Fund only support measures for achieving phase-out schedule of production and consumption. There is no fund to support measures for emissions reductions.  Recovered fluorocarbons (e.g. refrigerants) are treated as chemical waste, thus it will be forbidden to take out the country because of the Basel Convention.

• Developing countries must treat recovered fluorocarbon in own countries.
• But, there is no fund, no technology and no system for recovery and treatment

How much fund & cost? Q3

Issue 4) Limitations of financial/technological mechanism under the Kyoto Protocol

Production is regulated under the Montreal Protocol HCFC-22 production Dispersive use (for Refrigerants, Foams, etc) Feedstock use (for fluorine contained resin) By-product HFC-23 CDM Emission is regulated under the Kyoto Protocol ( ) By-product HFC-23 GWP=14800 CDM project There is no regulation for HCFC-22 feedstock production

• More HCFC-22 feedstock is produced, more by-product HFC-23 is emitted.
• CDM project of HFC-23 destroy is hardly accepted due to various reasons.

How large HFC23 emission? Q4

Background information: Background information: Uncertainty of Inventory and GWP Uncertainty of Inventory and GWP

Issue5) Lack of accuracy and lack of detailed data in fluorocarbon inventory

 Lack of accuracy of data (e.g. incomplete data and outlier in UNEP database)  Inconsistency of units between different database (e g in ODP ton metric ton and CO2 ton)  Inconsistency of units between different database (e.g. in ODP ton, metric ton, and CO2 ton)  Lack of detailed data by gas and by category (e.g. aggregated all gases in UNEP database)  Lack of data of major countries (e.g. China, India, Russia in AFEAS database)  Suspected data (e.g. inconsistency b/w emission factor and emissions in UNFCCC database)

Issue6) Large effects caused by difference of Global Warming Potentials

• It is necessary to create reliable global inventory from scratch.
• Detailed data by gas & category are necessary to convert inconsistent units.

How accurate and detail? Q5

35% 40% 9 10 d l ) q) 35% 40% 9 10 d l ) q)

Issue6) Large effects caused by difference of Global Warming Potentials

CFCs Based on GWP values in IPCC1995 （used for UNFCCC national report currently） Based on GWP values in IPCC2007 （will use for UNFCCC national report after 2015）

15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 4 5 6 7 8 9

• Energy‐relate

ns (% 1990 leve gas production valent (Gt‐CO2eq 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 4 5 6 7 8 9

• Energy‐relate

ns (% 1990 leve gas production valent (Gt‐CO2eq

CFCs HCFCs HFCs Compared to around1.5GtCO2eq

0% 5% 10% 15% 1 2 3 4 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 Compared t CO2 emissio Global Fg in CO2 equiv 0% 5% 10% 15% 1 2 3 4 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 Compared t CO2 emissio Global Fg in CO2 equiv

Compared to CO2 emissions level in 1990 Source) AFEAS (2011)

193 194 195 196 197 198 199 200 201 193 194 195 196 197 198 199 200 201

Note) AFEAS database is used for representing global fluorocarbon production, however the database is missing some major developing countries (e.g. China, India, Russia). Thus, this figure shows underestimated values. (e.g. CFCs production in 2004 represents 16 % of global production reported in UNEP). ) ( )

Target Sectors and Gases Target Sectors and Gases

Code Category GHG Mitigation option BYP By-production HFC Thermal oxidation BYP y p oduct o emission HFC Thermal oxidation REF Refrigerants CFC, HCFC, HFC, PFC Alternative refrigerants (carbon dioxide, hydrocarbons, NH3, etc), Leakage reduction, Recovery, Decomposition Alternative aerosol (hydrocarbon aerosol propellants, not-in- ARS Aerosols CFC, HCFC, HFC ( y p p , kind alternatives), 50% reduction (for medical applications, general aerosol propellants) FOM Foams CFC, HCFC, HFC, PFC Recovery, Decomposition, Alternative foams (water-blown CO2 systems, liquid CO2 foam blowing, hydrocarbon foam blowing) SLV Solvents CFC, HCFC, HFC, PFC Alternative solvents (NIK aqueous, NIK semi-aqueous), Retrofit

• ptions, 50% reduction

FEX Fire Extinguishers HFC, PFC Inert gas systems, Water mist, Leakage reduction & recovery SEM Semiconductor Manufacture HFC, PFC, SF6 Cleaning facility (NF3 in situ clean, NF3 remote clean), Recapture/destroy, Plasma abatement, Catalytic destruction, Thermal oxidation ALM Aluminium PFCs SF R t fit（PFPB SWPB CWPB VSS HSS） ALM Production PFCs, SF6 Retrofit（PFPB,SWPB,CWPB,VSS,HSS） MGS Magnesium Foundries SF6 SO2 replacement, Recovery and recycling, Alternative fluorinated compounds Electrical ELU Electrical Equipment SF6 Leak detection, Device recovery & recycling

Overview of Overview of Global Fluorocarbon Modeling Global Fluorocarbon Modeling

CFC-11 REF BYP(feedstock) Hermetic use HFC-23

Production

CFC-11

Consumption

By-product emission BYP(dispersive) CFC 11 CFC-12 CFC-113 CFC-114 CFC-115 HCFC 22 CFCs REF REFDOM REFCOM REFTRT REFIND REFSAC CFCs HCFCs HFCs CFC 11 CFC-12 CFC-113 CFC-114 CFC-115 HCFC 22 Leakage emission per annume HCFC-22 HCFC-141b HCFC-142b HCFC-123 HCFC-124 HCFC-225 HCFCs FOM ELU REFSAC REFMAC REFUSM HFCs PFCs SF6 HCFC-22 HCFC-141b HCFC-142b HCFC-123 HCFC-124 HCFC-225 Gl b l Emission at the time of disposal HCFC 225 HFC-134a HFC-32 HFC-125 HFC-143a Release use Dispersive use HCFC 225 HFC-134a HFC-32 HFC-125 HFC-143a SLV ARS Global Market CFCs HCFCs HFCs Emission at the time of consumption HFC-152a HFC-23 HFC-227ea HFC-236fa HFC-245ca HFC 365mfc HFCs HFC-152a HFC-23 HFC-227ea HFC-236fa HFC-245ca HFC 365mfc FEX SEM Metal production PFCs SF6 Emission at the time of HFC-365mfc HFC-43-10mee CF4 C2F6 C3F8 PFCs HFC-365mfc HFC-43-10mee CF4 C2F6 C3F8 Other non-specified ALM MGS PFCs SF6 production CFCs HCFCs Emission at the time of consumption C3F8 C4F10 SF6 SF6 C3F8 C4F10 SF6

35 regions

ONS

35 regions

HCFCs HFCs PFCs SF6 consumption

The latest Inventory & The latest Inventory & Baseline Emissions Scenarios Baseline Emissions Scenarios

• 1. Creation of the latest global inventory by gas, by category and by country
• UNEP Ozone Secretariat database
• AFEAS d t b
• AFEAS database
• UNFCCC National Inventory reports in all Annex I countries
• Various national statistics/report (Japan, EU, China, Russia, Indonesia, etc)
• Jo rnal Papers (McC lloch 1998 2003 2006 2007 Miller 2010 etc)
• Journal Papers (McCulloch 1998, 2003, 2006, 2007, Miller 2010, etc)
• 2. Baseline consumption scenario
• CFCs HCFCs : Following phase out schedule under the Montreal Protocol
• CFCs, HCFCs : Following phase-out schedule under the Montreal Protocol
• HFCs : Alternatives of CFCs and HCFCs considering phase-out

(extrapolating data by sector, based on GDP&POP growth)

• PFCs SF6

: BaU (extrapolating based on GDP & POP growth)

• PFCs, SF6 : BaU (extrapolating based on GDP & POP growth)
• 3. Baseline emission functions
• Emissions functions are determined by considering the time delays
• Emissions functions are determined by considering the time delays

between consumption and emissions depending on different service types in each category (e.g. refrigerants, aerosols, foams, solvents, others)

• Leakage of banked refrigerants during the use of appliances is considered

g g g pp

• HFC-23 emission ratio (by-product of HCFC-22 production) is considered

both in dispersive use and feedstock use.

Baseline Fluorocarbon Emissions Baseline Fluorocarbon Emissions HFCs & PFCs & SF6 HFCs & PFCs & SF6 + CFCs & + CFCs & HCFCs HCFCs

1800 2000 2200

2 eq)

World

800 900 1000

2 eq)

Asia

800 900 1000

2 eq)

Annex I

1200 1400 1600

ions (MtCO2 CFC

600 700 800

ions (MtCO2 CFC

600 700 800

ions (MtCO2 CFC

600 800 1000 1200

seline Emiss HCFC SF6 PFC

300 400 500

seline Emiss HCFC SF6 PFC

300 400 500

seline Emiss HCFC SF6 PFC

200 400 600

Bas HFC

100 200

Bas HFC

100 200

Bas HFC

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Year

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Year Note) This is still tentative result under the updating process of global fluorocarbon inventory

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Year

 Emissions of CFCs & HCFCs are larger than those of fluorinated gases under the the Kyoto GHGs in the mid-term (up to 2030), even if the world regions follow the phase-out schedule of production/consumption under the Montreal Protocol

) p g p g y

phase-out schedule of production/consumption under the Montreal Protocol.  It is important to consider early mitigation actions in Asia in the next 10 -20 years

It should be focused on when discussing the mid-term targets in the international regimes.

Thank You Thank You