2050 Global Calculator CO2 GHG emissions Presenter: Benoit Lefevre, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

2050 Global Calculator CO2 GHG emissions

Presenter: Benoit Lefevre, Ph.D. Date: July 16th, 2014 Introduction: This presentation from Dr. Benoit Lefevre, World Resources Institute, looks at the benefits of the 2050 Global Calculator of CO2 – GHG emissions for the world. The 2050 Global Calculator, currently in Beta Test, enables users to experiment with many different ways of reducing CO2-equivalent emissions. For example, users can boost energy supply by building more nuclear and wind turbines, or they can reduce energy demand by insulating people’s homes and changing travel behaviour. It is published by a set of partners including EMBARQ at the World Resources Institute (WRI) and the UK Department of Energy and Climate Change. More information on EMBARQ.org

Global Calculator

Overview of the Global Calculator project

Benoit Lefevre, Ph.D. Erin Cooper Julien Pestiaux July 16th, 2014

Global Calculator

Background Presentation of the Global Calculator Methodology Demonstration Next Steps

Structure

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DECC: From National Calculators to Global Calculator

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 UK 2050 Calculator published UK Calculator used to inform Carbon Plan Chinese govt start work on 2050 Calculator ICF approval for 2050 Calculator project Launch of Chinese Calculator South Africa, Brazil, Bangladesh all start work Global Calculator team to start work 10 developing countries developed 2050 Calculators Launch of Global Calculator Aim Achieved

Global Calculator

The UK set a legal requirement to reduce its emissions by 80% by 2050 from 1990 levels

Can we meet our targets without using nuclear? What proportion of energy might the UK import in 2050? Will we still be able to fly? What might be the impact

• n the UK landscape?

How much will it cost? How much bioenergy can the UK produce? How can we deal with intermittency of renewables?

Despite having sophisticated optimising models, the UK built its “2050 Calculator” 5

Global Calculator

UK Calculator

Global Calculator

The UK Calculator has had an impact within and

• utside of government

Informing UK Government energy strategy

• Electricity market reform
• Heat strategy
• Bioenergy strategy
• Carbon Plan 2011
• Urgent analysis (e.g. for Cabinet

ministers, and post Fukushima) Energising debate among NGOs, businesses and politicians

• Expert pathways
• Calculator adopted as an analytical

and educational tool

• Briefing for MPs,

and cited in Hansard Within government Outside government 7

Global Calculator

Other countries are making good progress on their country-level 2050 Calculators

Published: Work in progress: Close to starting: In discussion:

UK Belgium China South Korea South Africa Brazil Bangladesh India Indonesi a Nigeria Poland Russia France Taiwan Algeria Hungary Serbia and SEE Japan Mexico ICF supported Thailand Vietnam USA Philippines Ethiopia Colombia

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• The Chines Planning Commission used their National Calculator to coherence
• f their 5-year plan: would there be enough supply to meet demand if they

stopped building coal power plants?

• The tool will support the forthcoming publication of “China Energy Outlook”
• This series publications won high praise for both academic and practical

value, http://eri.org.cn/news_zj.php?cid27=&aid=2172

Global Calculator

Background Presentation of the Global Calculator Methodology Demonstration Next Steps

Structure

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Why a Global Calculator ?

11 A difficulty with the current suite of global climate and energy models is that they tend not to be very user friendly. For example, MARKAL screenshot: So DECC decided to build a Global Calculator model.

Global Calculator

Consortium

Sophie Hartfield Team leader, (DECC) Tom Bain Lead modeller (DECC) Erica Thompson Climate science and impacts (LSE) Julien Pestiaux Transport Alexandre Strapasson Land/bio/food (ICL) Anindya Bhattacharya Electricity and fossil fuels (E&Y)

Ephraim Broschkowski

Visuals (CMF) Zhang Bo Buildings (Chinese ERD/ERI) Davide D’Ambrosio IEA support on data, peer review and stakeholder engagement Michel Cornet Materials (Climact) Support from Climate-KIC partners: Utrecht University, Netherlands; Potsdam Institute, Germany; Walker Institute, UK; Rothamsted Research, UK; University of Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, France; Met Office, UK; and Tyndall Centre, UK.

Funded by Climate-KIC

Benoit Lefevre (WRI) Erin Cooper (WRI) Markus Wrobel (CMF) Jeremy Woods and Nicole Kalas (ICL and Climate-KIC)

Global Calculator

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Added value of Global Calculator

• User-friendly
• Transparent
• Gives a cross-sectoral view in one glance
• Gives global perspective
• Shows trade-offs between policies
• Unlike national calculators, global calculator is constrained by

availability of materials

Global Calculator

Scenario analysis tool for showing how global energy, land and food system “adds up” and showing the business opportunities that could arise from

• decarbonisation. e.g.
• Industry: if big shift to recycling and more durable

products, what does this mean for industrial production?

• Transport: what’s the size of the potential future

market for EVs (would there be enough rare earth materials to manufacture vehicle batteries)?

• Food: what’s the global availability of land for food vs

bioenergy, and what might this mean for production methods?

It will help answer questions of interest to businesses…

Multinational businesses User Questions answered

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Global Calculator

Show at a glance how pathways from other models compare (e.g. IEA 2, 4 and 6D pathways). Develop and promote a global eco-wide vision / pathway for a sustainable future

… and NGOs and governments

To make the case for tackling climate change by:

• Showing detrimental impacts
• Illustrating aspirational low emission pathways.

Environmental NGOs and governments All users User Questions answered

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But it will not be designed to answer more complex price impact and burden sharing questions

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It will not be designed to answer questions such as:

• Price impacts: what is the impact of a global carbon tax of $x/tCO2?
• Burden sharing: if the US did X and China did Y, how would other

countries respond and what would happen to global emissions and climate impacts? But it will be able to illustrate pathways from other models exploring these questions.

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Global Calculator

Background Presentation of the Global Calculator Methodology Demonstration Next Steps

Structure

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Global Calculator

High level structure of the Transport modelling

Transport (energy demand and emissions) Passenger Urban Non-Urban Long range international Freight Short to medium range / domestic Long range international (ship, air)

+ + +

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Automobile City Transit City Booming City

+

Developed Developing

+

Developed Developing

+

Developed Developing

+

Developed Developing

+

Global Calculator

Urban

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Automobile City Transit City Booming City

+ City types and levels are based on:

• City form and projected future growth
• Existing mode shares within each city type
• Trip distances within each city type
• Countries/population of each category

Close-up on urban passenger travel modelling

To capture change potential in a variety of cities throughout the world.

Global Calculator

IMPROVE IMPROVE SHIFT Demand ICEV road transport GHG emissions (CO2e) CARS Demand electric road transport Fuel demand CARS Elecricity demand - CARS Electricity emissions factors Fuel emissions factor Efficiency rate Occupancy rate Electric penetration Occupancy rate

x +

Transport demand CARS ICEV penetration Transport demand CARS Modal share CARS Urban passengers transport demand per year per inhabitant in the city Urban population

x x x x

Efficiency rate

x x

Modal share CARS Urban passengers transport demand per year per inhabitant in the city Urban population

x GHG emissions – CARS electricity GHG emissions – CARS fuel TOTAL FIGURES APPROACH SOURCE: Global Calculator team

AVOID AVOID SHIFT

x x TOTAL FIGURES APPROACH

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Structure of the URBAN Passengers transport modelling

Global Calculator

Levels 1 to 4 represent the least/most abatement effort that experts believe possible

The level 1-4 range is simply a synthesis of what a wide range of credible experts believe could be possible by 2050.

Level 1: Minimum abatement effort Level 2: ambitious but achievable Level 3: very ambitious but achievable Level 4: extraordinarily ambitious and extreme Most experts will tend to congregate here Only a minority

• f experts will

think this is

• possible. An

extreme view. More abatement effort

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Global Calculator

Level 1 represents the minimum level of abatement effort

Technology levers: minimum or no technological roll out. e.g. UK nuclear Behavioural levers: minimal abatement

• effort. Maximum demand that could

plausibly be envisaged. In level 1 there is no decoupling of economic/population growth and demand. e.g. UK average home temperature Level 1 should not be interpreted as BAU. It may actually be more pessimistic. 25

Global Calculator

Level 2 is described by most experts as ambitious but achievable; and level 3 is described as very ambitious but achievable

Technology levers: technological roll

• ut at ambitious / very ambitious

rates. e.g. UK nuclear Behavioural levers: ambitious / very ambitious behaviour change and abatement effort in this sector. e.g. UK average home temperature 26

Global Calculator

Level 4 for technology levers reflects the maximum theoretical potential of a technology

Technology levers: the maximum technology roll out that is technically possible by 2050, not constrained by cost. e.g. UK nuclear Level 4 is:

• Extraordinarily ambitious and

extreme – an “Apollo” level of effort

• The maximum technology roll out as

suggested by the most ambitious expert

• Only constrained by:
• Build/installation rate: e.g. roll
• ut of nuclear will be

constrained by the fastest it is possible to build plants (determined by a “top runner” build rate)

• Natural resources: e.g. roll out
• f wind and solar will be

constrained by the availability of windy/sunny locations. 27

Global Calculator

How does the Calculator reflect current/planned policy?

Current / planned policy is not reflected in the levels 1-4… Level 1 is not the “business as usual” scenario because it does not attempt to take account of existing/planned

• policy. Level 1 is actually likely to be higher emissions than

business as usual. … instead, it’s reflected in example pathways e.g. The IEA 4DS is all current and planned policy.

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Background Presentation of the Global Calculator Methodology Demonstration Next Steps

Structure

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Global Calculator

Demo of prototype Global Calculator tool

http://gcp.pik-potsdam.de/glob-calc-v10a.html Username: gcp Password: ObErOn7! (please note the confidentiality agreement) 30

Benoit Lefevre, Ph.D.

Benoit Lefevre is the Director of the Transport and Climate Program for and EMBARQ/WRI. He is in charge

• f developing a new initiative on

transport and climate change. Benoit leads the Transport Working Group

• f the Low Emissions Development

Strategies Global Partnership (LEDS- GP).

About the Presenter