2050 Global Calculator CO2 GHG emissions Presenter: Benoit Lefevre, Ph.D. Date: July 16th, 2014 Introduction: This presentation from Dr. Benoit Lefevre, World Resources Institute, looks at the benefits of the 2050 Global Calculator of CO2 – GHG emissions for the world. The 2050 Global Calculator, currently in Beta Test, enables users to experiment with many different ways of reducing CO2-equivalent emissions. For example, users can boost energy supply by building more nuclear and wind turbines, or they can reduce energy demand by insulating people’s homes and changing travel behaviour. It is published by a set of partners including EMBARQ at the World Resources Institute (WRI) and the UK Department of Energy and Climate Change. More information on EMBARQ.org
G lobal C alculator Overview of the Global Calculator project Benoit Lefevre, Ph.D. Erin Cooper July 16 th , 2014 Julien Pestiaux
G lobal Structure C alculator Background Presentation of the Global Calculator Methodology Demonstration Next Steps 3
G lobal DECC: From National Calculators to Global Calculator C alculator UK 2050 UK Calculator ICF approval for Global Calculator Launch of Global Calculator used to inform 2050 Calculator team to start Calculator published Carbon Plan project work 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Chinese govt start South Africa, Brazil, 10 developing Launch of Chinese work on 2050 Bangladesh all start countries developed Calculator Calculator work 2050 Calculators Achieved Aim
The UK set a legal requirement to reduce its emissions G lobal by 80% by 2050 from 1990 levels C alculator Despite having sophisticated optimising models, the UK built its “2050 Calculator” What proportion of energy Can we meet our targets might the UK import in without using nuclear? 2050? How much bioenergy can the UK produce? How much will it cost? What might be the impact on the UK landscape? Will we still be able to fly? How can we deal with intermittency of renewables? 5
G lobal UK Calculator C alculator
The UK Calculator has had an impact within and G lobal outside of government C alculator Within government Outside government Informing UK Government energy Energising debate among NGOs, strategy businesses and politicians • Electricity market reform • Expert pathways • Heat strategy • Bioenergy strategy • Calculator adopted as an analytical and educational tool Carbon Plan 2011 • • Urgent analysis (e.g. for Cabinet • Briefing for MPs, ministers, and post Fukushima) and cited in Hansard 7
G lobal Other countries are making good progress on their country-level 2050 Calculators C alculator ICF supported Published: UK Belgium China South Korea Work in progress: Japan Hungary Serbia and SEE Taiwan South Africa Bangladesh Brazil India Indonesi Mexico a Close to starting: Colombia Vietnam Thailand Algeria In discussion: 8 Poland Russia France USA Nigeria Philippines Ethiopia
G lobal C alculator • The Chines Planning Commission used their National Calculator to coherence of their 5-year plan: would there be enough supply to meet demand if they stopped building coal power plants? • The tool will support the forthcoming publication of “China Energy Outlook” • This series publications won high praise for both academic and practical value, http://eri.org.cn/news_zj.php?cid27=&aid=2172
G lobal Structure C alculator Background Presentation of the Global Calculator Methodology Demonstration Next Steps 10
Why a Global Calculator ? G lobal C alculator A difficulty with the current suite of global climate and energy models is that they tend not to be very user friendly. For example, MARKAL screenshot: So DECC decided to build a Global Calculator model. 11
G lobal Consortium C alculator Sophie Hartfield Team leader, (DECC) Jeremy Woods and Markus Nicole Kalas (ICL and Benoit Lefevre (WRI) Wrobel Climate-KIC) Erin Cooper (WRI) (CMF) Ephraim Tom Bain Anindya Julien Michel Cornet Zhang Bo Alexandre Erica Broschkowski Bhattacharya Pestiaux Strapasson Thompson Visuals Lead modeller Electricity and Transport Materials Buildings Land/bio/food Climate fossil fuels (Chinese science and (CMF) (DECC) (E&Y) (Climact) ERD/ERI) (ICL) impacts (LSE) Davide D’Ambrosio IEA support on data, peer review and stakeholder engagement Funded by Climate-KIC Support from Climate-KIC partners: Utrecht University, Netherlands; Potsdam Institute, Germany; Walker Institute, UK; Rothamsted Research, UK; University of Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, France; Met Office, UK; and Tyndall Centre, UK.
G lobal Added value of Global Calculator C alculator • User-friendly • Transparent • Gives a cross-sectoral view in one glance • Gives global perspective • Shows trade-offs between policies • Unlike national calculators, global calculator is constrained by availability of materials 14
It will help answer questions of interest to G lobal businesses… C alculator User Questions answered Scenario analysis tool for showing how global energy, Multinational land and food system “adds up” and showing the businesses business opportunities that could arise from decarbonisation. e.g. • Industry: if big shift to recycling and more durable products, what does this mean for industrial production? • Transport: what’s the size of the potential future market for EVs (would there be enough rare earth materials to manufacture vehicle batteries)? • Food: what’s the global availability of land for food vs bioenergy, and what might this mean for production methods? 15
G lobal … and NGOs and governments C alculator User Questions answered Show at a glance how pathways from other models Environmental compare (e.g. IEA 2, 4 and 6D pathways). NGOs and Develop and promote a global eco-wide vision / governments pathway for a sustainable future To make the case for tackling climate change by: All users • Showing detrimental impacts • Illustrating aspirational low emission pathways. 16
G lobal But it will not be designed to answer more complex C alculator price impact and burden sharing questions It will not be designed to answer questions such as: Price impacts : what is the impact of a global carbon tax of $x/tCO2? • Burden sharing : if the US did X and China did Y, how would other • countries respond and what would happen to global emissions and climate impacts? But it will be able to illustrate pathways from other models exploring these questions. 17 17
G lobal Structure C alculator Background Presentation of the Global Calculator Methodology Demonstration Next Steps 20
G lobal High level structure of the Transport modelling C alculator Automobile City Urban + Transit City Booming City Developed + Non-Urban Passenger + Developing Long range Developed Transport + international + Developing (energy demand and emissions) Developed Short to medium + range / domestic Developing Freight + Long range Developed + international Developing (ship, air) 21
G lobal Close-up on urban passenger travel modelling C alculator Automobile City Urban + Transit City Booming City City types and levels are based on: • City form and projected future growth • Existing mode shares within each city type • Trip distances within each city type • Countries/population of each category To capture change potential in a variety of cities throughout the world. 22
G lobal Structure of the URBAN Passengers transport modelling C alculator SHIFT Modal share CARS GHG emissions Fuel demand Demand ICEV road Transport demand x x x x – CARS fuel CARS transport CARS AVOID IMPROVE Urban passengers Efficiency rate transport demand Fuel emissions ICEV TOTAL x per year per factor penetration FIGURES inhabitant in the city GHG emissions Occupancy rate APPROACH + (CO 2 e) CARS Urban population SHIFT Modal share CARS GHG emissions – Elecricity demand - Demand electric Transport demand x x x x CARS electricity CARS road transport CARS IMPROVE AVOID Urban passengers Electricity Electric x Efficiency rate transport demand emissions factors penetration TOTAL per year per FIGURES inhabitant in the city APPROACH Occupancy rate Urban population 23 SOURCE: Global Calculator team
Levels 1 to 4 represent the least/most abatement effort G lobal that experts believe possible C alculator The level 1-4 range is simply a synthesis of what a wide range of credible experts believe could be possible by 2050. More abatement effort Level 1: Level 4: Level 3: very Level 2: extraordinarily Minimum ambitious but ambitious but abatement ambitious and achievable achievable effort extreme Most experts will tend to congregate here Only a minority of experts will think this is possible. An extreme view. 24
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