Development of Development of AIM/Enduse[Global Enduse[Global] - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

▶
development of development of aim enduse global enduse
SMART_READER_LITE
LIVE PREVIEW

Development of Development of AIM/Enduse[Global Enduse[Global] - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Mar 07, 2024 138 likes •326 views

The 12 The 1 2th AIM International Workshop th AIM International Workshop 19- -2 20 0, February 200 , February 2007 7 19 NIES, Tsukuba, Japan NIES, Tsukuba, Japan Development of Development of AIM/Enduse[Global Enduse[Global] model

slide-1
SLIDE 1

2007/3/20 1

Development of Development of AIM/ AIM/Enduse[Global Enduse[Global] model ] model

  • GHG emissions reductions and costs

GHG emissions reductions and costs in Asia regions in Asia regions -

  • The 1

The 12 2th AIM International Workshop th AIM International Workshop 19 19-

  • 2

20 0, February 200 , February 2007 7 NIES, Tsukuba, Japan NIES, Tsukuba, Japan

National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan

Tatsuya Hanaoka, Mikiko Kainuma, Junichi Fujino

Kyoto University Yuzuru Matsuoka, Osamu Akashi, Mizuho Information and Research Institute Go Hibino, Maho Miyashita

slide-2
SLIDE 2

2007/3/20 2

Topics Topics

  • 1. Objective
  • 1. Objective
  • 2. Overview of developing
  • 2. Overview of developing Enduse[Global

Enduse[Global] ]

  • 3. Scenario outline
  • 3. Scenario outline

4.

  • 4. Result

Results in Asia regions s in Asia regions

  • Global and regional reduction potentials

Global and regional reduction potentials

  • Marginal abatement costs

Marginal abatement costs

slide-3
SLIDE 3

2007/3/20 3

According to recent scenario studies，most of BaU scenarios show increase of GHG emissions toward the latter half of the 21st century. Considering socioeconomic and technology level in each country & region, studies such as burden sharing, CDM potentials, regional and global economic impacts become major interests in the world.

Objective of this study Objective of this study

To evaluate GHG mitigation potentials and estimate To evaluate GHG mitigation potentials and estimate marginal abatement costs in world regions. marginal abatement costs in world regions.

  • Comparison of region

Comparison of region-

  • wise & sector

wise & sector-

  • wise

wise reduction potentials and reduction costs reduction potentials and reduction costs

  • Technologies with large reduction potentials

Technologies with large reduction potentials

Background

slide-4
SLIDE 4

2007/3/20 4

Overview of Overview of Enduse[Global Enduse[Global] ]

◆ Target Regions

Target Regions : 23 geographical world regions 23 geographical world regions

◆ Time Horizon

Time Horizon : 2000 2000 – – 20 2020 20 ( (planning to expand up to 2050 planning to expand up to 2050) )

◆ Target Gas

Target Gas : CO2, CH4, N2O, CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs HFCs, , PFCs PFCs, SF6 (CFCs, , SF6 (CFCs, HCFCs HCFCs) )

◆ Target Sectors

Target Sectors : multiple sectors multiple sectors (Power generation sector / Industry sector / Residential sector (Power generation sector / Industry sector / Residential sector / / Commercial sector / Transport sector / Agriculture secto Commercial sector / Transport sector / Agriculture sector / r / CH4 & N2O emissions sector / F CH4 & N2O emissions sector / F-

  • gas emissions sector

gas emissions sector ) )

slide-5
SLIDE 5

2007/3/20 5

Geographical coverage Geographical coverage

Region Region Code Code 1) 1) Japan Japan 2) 2) China China 3) 3) India India 4) 4) Indonesia Indonesia 5) 5) Korea Korea 6) 6) Thailand Thailand 7) 7) Other South Other South-

  • east Asia

east Asia 8) 8) Other South Asia Other South Asia 9) Middle East 9) Middle East 10) Australia 10) Australia 11) New Zealand 11) New Zealand JPN JPN CHN CHN IND IND IDN IDN KOR KOR THA THA XSE XSE XSA XSA XME XME AUS AUS NZL NZL Region Region Code Code 12) Canada 12) Canada 13) USA 13) USA 14) EU 14) EU-

  • 15 in Western Europe

15 in Western Europe 15) EU 15) EU-

  • 10 in Eastern Europe

10 in Eastern Europe 16) Russia 16) Russia 17) Argentine 17) Argentine 18) Brazil 18) Brazil 19) Mexico 19) Mexico 20) Other Latin America 20) Other Latin America 21) South Africa 21) South Africa 22) Other Africa 22) Other Africa 23) Rest of the World 23) Rest of the World CAN CAN USA USA XE15 XE15 XE10 XE10 RUS RUS ARG ARG BRZ BRZ MEX MEX XLM XLM ZAF ZAF XAF XAF XRW XRW Depending on what is to be analyzed, there are different approaches for regional aggregations In this study, focus major GHG emission regions, especially Agai In this study, focus major GHG emission regions, especially Again regions in detail n regions in detail

slide-6
SLIDE 6

2007/3/20 6

Target gas and sectors Target gas and sectors

Target gas Target gas Target sector Target sector Target service Target service CO2 CO2 Power Power generation generation Coal power plant, Oil power plant, Gas power plant, Coal power plant, Oil power plant, Gas power plant,

  • ther powers generation (wind, biomass, PV)
  • ther powers generation (wind, biomass, PV)

CO2 CO2 Industry Industry Iron and steel, cement, other industries Iron and steel, cement, other industries CO2 CO2 Residential & Residential & commercial commercial Cooling, heating, hot Cooling, heating, hot-

  • water

water， ，cooking cooking， ，lighting lighting， ， refrigerator, TV refrigerator, TV CO2 CO2 Transportation Transportation Passenger vehicle, truck Passenger vehicle, truck， ，bus bus， ，ship, aircraft ship, aircraft， ， passenger train passenger train， ，freight train (except for pipeline freight train (except for pipeline transport and international transport) transport and international transport) N2O N2O Industry process Industry process & agriculture & agriculture Adipic Adipic acid, nitric acid, cropland acid, nitric acid, cropland CH4 CH4 Agriculture & Agriculture & non non-

  • agriculture

agriculture Coal mining, gas production, livestock rumination, Coal mining, gas production, livestock rumination, manure management, paddy field, municipal solid manure management, paddy field, municipal solid waste waste HFCs HFCs, , PFCs PFCs, SF6 , SF6 F gas F gas By By-

  • product of HCFC

product of HCFC-

  • 22, refrigerant

22, refrigerant， ，aerosol, foams aerosol, foams， ， solvent, etching solvent, etching， ，aluminum production, magnesium aluminum production, magnesium

  • production. Insulation gas, others.
  • production. Insulation gas, others.
slide-7
SLIDE 7

2007/3/20 7

Outline of model simulation Outline of model simulation

Base year: 2000 2000 Target year : 2020 2020 Discount rate: 5%/year 5%/year Baseline scenario: technology technology-

  • frozen case

frozen case

Assuming the characteristics in 2020 as the case under Assuming the characteristics in 2020 as the case under existing technology options with the same technical and existing technology options with the same technical and economic characteristics as in 2000 economic characteristics as in 2000

Reduction potentials are estimated by consideration of diffusion of

  • f selected advanced technology.

Additional costs are estimated by subtraction of the cost of existing technology and the one of selected advanced technology in each sector

slide-8
SLIDE 8

2007/3/20 8

Estimation of service demands Estimation of service demands

Service Demand in 2000 Future Service Demand

Change of Service Demand from SAGE*

Current method of estimating future service demand Current method of estimating future service demand

  • in sectors in residential, commercial, transportation, industry

in sectors in residential, commercial, transportation, industry

SAGE* : USDOE, 2003, Model Documentation Report: System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets

World energy

  • utlook
  • in sectors in non

in sectors in non-

  • CO2 emission

CO2 emission

IEA Energy balance Various statistics

Service Demand in 2000 Future Service Demand

Various statistics World energy

  • utlook

IEA Energy balance Various statistics

slide-9
SLIDE 9

2007/3/20 9

Example of on Example of on-

  • going work and issues

going work and issues

  • General

General – – Refine & investigate data of driving forces in the base year and Refine & investigate data of driving forces in the base year and future. future. – – Develop rich database of technology options Develop rich database of technology options

  • Data preparation in residential and commercial sector

Data preparation in residential and commercial sector – – Detai Detailed check of biomass energy consumption led check of biomass energy consumption – – Detailed check of biomass energy technologies Detailed check of biomass energy technologies – – Consideration of relationship between building types and warming Consideration of relationship between building types and warming demand demand – – Consideration of Consideration of technology substitution over energy kind in cooking, technology substitution over energy kind in cooking, hot water and warming hot water and warming – – Detailed check of energy technology of hot water and warming in Detailed check of energy technology of hot water and warming in Europe and the United States Europe and the United States – – Estimation of future driving force not using SAGE Estimation of future driving force not using SAGE

  • Data preparation in transportation sector

Data preparation in transportation sector – – Detai Detailed check of service demand in year 2000 led check of service demand in year 2000 (Check consistency with energy consumption, energy efficiency, (Check consistency with energy consumption, energy efficiency, number of vehicle) number of vehicle) – – Estimation of future service demand by econometric model Estimation of future service demand by econometric model

slide-10
SLIDE 10

2007/3/20 10

Reduction potentials Reduction potentials

5 1 ,0 1 ,5 2 ,0

Japan China India Indonesia Korea Thailand Other South-east Asia Other South Asia Middle East Australia New Zealand Canada USA EU-15 in Western Europe EU-10 in Eastern Europe Russia Argentine Brazil Other Latin America Africa Rest of the World Reduction Potential (Mt-CO2)

  • 1

U S $ /t-C O 2 < U S $ /t-C O 2

in the year 2020 Discount rate = 5%

Japan China India Indonesia Korea Thailand

Other South East Asia Other South Asia

slide-11
SLIDE 11

2007/3/20 11

Comparison of marginal abatement Comparison of marginal abatement costs curves in China costs curves in China

  • 50

50 100 150 200 100 200 300 400

GHG reduction (Mt-C eq) in China Marginal abatement cost (US$/t-C eq)

CO2, 2020, DR=5% (AIM/Enduse[Global]) CH4, 2020, DR=5% (AIM/Enduse[Global]) F-gas, 2020, DR=5% (AIM/Enduse[Global]) CH4&N2O, 2020, DR=5% (EMF21) CH4, 2020, DR=10% (USEPA2006) N2O, 2020, DR=10% (USEPA2006) F-gas, 2020, DR=10% (USEPA2006)

Existing type of coal plant Inverter control for motor Gas high efficiency industrial furnace Coal bed methane ventilation

  • xidizer for heat & electricity
slide-12
SLIDE 12

2007/3/20 12

Comparison of marginal abatement Comparison of marginal abatement costs curves in India costs curves in India

  • 50

50 100 150 200 50 100 150 200

GHG reduction (Mt-C eq) in India Marginal abatement cost (US$/t-C eq)

CO2, 2020, DR=5% (AIM/Enduse[Global]) CH4, 2020, DR=5% (AIM/Enduse[Global]) F-gas, 2020, DR=5% (AIM/Enduse[Global]) CH4&N2O, 2020, DR=5% (EMF21) CH4, 2020, DR=10% (USEPA2006) N2O, 2020, DR=10% (USEPA2006) F-gas, 2020, DR=10% (USEPA2006)

Existing type of coal plant Gas high efficiency industrial furnace Gas boiler with combustion control

slide-13
SLIDE 13

2007/3/20 13

Comparison of marginal abatement Comparison of marginal abatement costs curves in costs curves in SA SA＆ ＆SE SE

  • 50

50 100 150 200 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

GHG reduction (Mt-C eq) in South and South East Asia Marginal abatement cost (US$/t-C eq)

CO2, 2020, DR=5% (AIM/Enduse[Global]) CH4, 2020, DR=5% (AIM/Enduse[Global]) F-gas, 2020, DR=5% (AIM/Enduse[Global]) CH4&N2O, 2020, DR=5% (EMF21) CH4, 2020, DR=10% (USEPA2006) N2O, 2020, DR=10% (USEPA2006) F-gas, 2020, DR=10% (USEPA2006)

slide-14
SLIDE 14

2007/3/20 14

Comparison of marginal abatement Comparison of marginal abatement costs curves in costs curves in Korea Korea

  • 50

50 100 150 200 10 20 30 40 50

GHG reduction (Mt-C eq) in Korea Marginal abatement cost (US$/t-C eq)

CO2, 2020, DR=5% (AIM/Enduse[Global]) CH4, 2020, DR=5% (AIM/Enduse[Global]) F-gas, 2020, DR=5% (AIM/Enduse[Global]) CH4&N2O, 2020, DR=5% (EMF21) CH4, 2020, DR=10% (USEPA2006) N2O, 2020, DR=10% (USEPA2006) F-gas, 2020, DR=10% (USEPA2006)

Gas high efficiency industrial furnace

slide-15
SLIDE 15

2007/3/20 15

Comparison of marginal abatement Comparison of marginal abatement costs curves in costs curves in Japan Japan

  • 50

50 100 150 200 10 20 30 40 50 60

GHG reduction (Mt-C eq) in Japan Marginal abatement cost (US$/t-C eq)

CO2, 2020, DR=5% (AIM/Enduse[Global]) CH4, 2020, DR=5% (AIM/Enduse[Global]) F-gas, 2020, DR=5% (AIM/Enduse[Global]) CH4&N2O, 2020, DR=5% (EMF21) CH4, 2020, DR=10% (USEPA2006) N2O, 2020, DR=10% (USEPA2006) F-gas, 2020, DR=10% (USEPA2006)

slide-16
SLIDE 16

2007/3/20 16

Global economic model

Trade matrix DB Trade cost DB Macro-Economic model Industry Residential / Commercial Transportation Agriculture Non-Agriculture (CH 4 /N 2 O) F-gas emission Resource model Resource reserve & cost DB

23 regions

Enduse model

Energy resource price Resource mining Resource price Energy price Goods/service price Goods/service export/import Goods/service production Energy demand Electricity price, Emission factor Non-CO2 Trend model GDP，POP Energy conversion Energy service demand Goods/service production Technology option DB Non-CO2 drivers DB

Scope for f Scope for further urther development development

slide-17
SLIDE 17

2007/3/20 17

Thank you Thank you