Future AIM modeling Future AIM modeling ~Focused on global models - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Future AIM modeling Future AIM modeling ~Focused on global models and national assessment tools~ ~Focused on global models and national assessment tools~ Yuzuru Matsuoka Yuzuru Matsuoka The 12th AIM International Workshop The 12th AIM International Workshop 19 9- -21 21, , February February 2007 2007 1 At Conference Room in Climate Change Research Hall At Conference Room in Climate Change Research Hall (Not Ohyama Memorial Hall) (Not Ohyama Memorial Hall) National Institute for Environmental Studies, 305- - National Institute for Environmental Studies, 305 8506,Tsukuba, Japan 8506,Tsukuba, Japan Future direction of AIM, 2007 1

AIM model family, FY2007 AIM model family, FY2007 Global model for climate policy assessment Category Name Category Objective Model type Target year FY 2006-2007 activity Conservation of ecosystem/ Modeling of relationship among economic activities, Multi-regional CGE + various Merge and extend to one Ecosystem water stress/ landuse/ pollution ～ 2100 land use and ecosystem environmental process models global/CGE model as a plat in developing countries home of AR5 scenario activity Global/CGE Energy, GHG Control Projection of long-term GHGs emission Multi-regional CGE model ～ 2100-2150 Top-down models CO2 reduction, energy Connecting with stock models, Economic and material flow impact by climate and houshold models, transport models Material consumption, waste management. One regional national CGE model ～ 2030-2050 other environmental policy environmental industry and so on. National scale models toward low carbon society Extend to a multi-regional world Forecasting macro-economic Quantification and analysis of macroeconomic and Econometric Country-level econometric model ～ 2050 frame energy variables model GHG, Energy, Low carbon Establishing scenarios toward saustainable society Implementation and Operation Backcasting Country-level dynamic optimization model ～ 2050 society from view points of environment and economy Establishing scenarios toward saustainable society Cohort-component model, houshold Population/Household Population, household ～ 2050 from view points of environment and economy transition matrix model Residential, non-residential Estimation of building demands related to houshold Building Stock dynamics model ～ 2050 building change, economic change and so on Quantitative shinario making Models /Tools for Passenger and Freight transport Estimation of transport demand related to tools for mid-term Transport Trip generation, modal share modeling ～ 2050 scenario making demand national/regional/urban land planning national/regional integrated assessment Infrastracture, capital, Estimation of raw material needs, waste generation Stocks Stock dynamics model ～ 2050 buildings related to recycling and economic activity Temporal and spatial regulation Adjustment among temporal and spatial fluctuation of Energy supply and of electlicity, heat and energy demand and supply Simulation and optimization type model ～ 2050 demand regulation hydrogen Still developing. Estimation of GHG,SO 2, NO X ,PM abatement Technology selection for global warming, regional air Country-level or regional-level bottom-up End-use, Energy, Enduse[global] ～ 2050 feasibility and economic burdens Technology technology pollution model of low carbon world Bottom-up GHG,SO 2, NO X ,PM abatement Technology selection for global warming, regional air Country-level or regional-level bottom-up Enduse[country] ～ 2050 technology pollution model Keep maintainance GHG,SO 2, NO X ,PM abatement Technology selection for global warming, regional air Country-level or regional-level bottom-up Enduse[local] ～ 2030 technology pollution model Impact assessment of climate Impact Impact assessment at global scale Process model based on raster GIS data ～ 2100 Keeping maintainance and change reinforcement ? Anyway, it is necessary to reconfirm the Impact assessment of climate developing policy, to review Impact[Country] Impact assessment at country scale Process model based on raster GIS data ～ 2100 change and to reorganize it. Integration of mitigation policy Change to multi-regional emission Impact Assessment Investigation of stabilization level and mitigation Impact[policy] evaluation and impact Calculating global GHGs paths ～ 2200 model, improve climate and carbon policy with considering consequent impacts assessment cycle modules Integrated assessment of water supply and demand Coupling process model with and Coupling with AIM/GBDB(Global Water Impact assessment ～ 2050 focusing on urban area statistics basin database) Coupling with AIM/Enduse[local], Regional and country scale atmospheric environmental for assessing long-range and urban Enduse[Air] Environmental Assesment Atmospheric quality model + GIS ～ 2050 analysis air pollution issues. Future direction of AIM, 2007 2

Focusing Focusing points points •AR5 new scenario activity •LCS/APEIS activities •Others •Three global climate policy assessment models Impact[Policy], Global[CGE], Enduse[Global] • Two tools for national sustainable study Extended Snapshot(ESS), Backcasting Model(BCM) Future direction of AIM, 2007 3

Three global climate policy assessment models Impact[Policy], Global[CGE], Enduse[Global] • Impact[Policy]: Calculating long-term global GHGs paths under various climate stabilization targets, main focus is on global characteristics of paths as well as the rough global scale assessment of climate impact/benefit of mitigation • Global[CGE]: Describing regional details of energy system and economic impacts under global climate policies in this century. Expected as a common platform of AR5 by national teams. • Enduse[Global]: Describing regional details of mitigation potential and engineering characteristics under various global and national climate policies in the first half of this century Future direction of AIM, 2007 4

AIM/Impact[Policy] - Global and Long-term climate-economic-energy integrated model multi-regions (< 10), year 2000 to year 2200 - Dynamic global model consisted with; Dynamic economic CGE module maximizing social utility + Simplified climate module (global surface energy balance model) + Carbon cycle module with feedback mechanism + Simplified chemical reaction module + Climate impact module - Gases : CO 2 , CH 4 , N 2 O, BC, SO 2 , and F gases - Now, developing mainly by AIM impact group, updating with latest climate mechanisms and information - Immediate refinements: 1)to multi-regional, 2) inclusion of climate feedback mechanism, 3) systematic and organized methodology of impact assessment. Future direction of AIM, 2007 5 �

World regional classification of global AIM activity ( top-down/bottom-up) Asia Oceania North America South America Africa Europe ARG ARG ZAF ZAF JPN JPN AUS AUS CAN CAN BRZ BRZ CHN CHN USA USA NZL NZL XAF HKG MEX MEX IND IND IDN IDN KOR KOR XRW XLM THA THA BRN MMR RUS CYP BHR OMN KHM PHL XSE IRN QAT LAO SGP XE10 XE15 RUS XRW IRQ SAU MYS VNM ISR SYR XME TLS JOR ARE : Region classification of UN BGD NPL http://unstats.un.org/unsd/methods/m49/m49regin.htm KWT YEM BTN PAK XSA : Region classification of AIM [Global] LBN MDV LKA : Country XRW Future direction of AIM, 2007 6 2006.8.17 GH of MHIR

AIM/Global[CGE] - Global and Long-term economic model 23 regions (same as AIM/Enduse[global]), year 2000 to year 2100 - Recursive dynamic multi-regional CGE model Implemented on GAMS/MPSGE or GAMS/MCP Factor markets: land, labor, and capital Product markets: industrial, agricultural, energy Production sectors: industry, agriculture, energy Final demand sectors: households, governments, investment CES/Leontief production function, putty/clay capitals - Detailed energy resource information Fossil fuels (conventional, non-conventional) Renewables (hydro, wind, solar, biomass...) Nuclear - Gases : CO 2 , CH 4 , N 2 O, BC, SO 2 , and F gases - Calibration (year 2001) with GTAP ver.6 database, IEA energy data, FAOSTAT etc. - Distributed to AIM members in the next AIM workshop � Future direction of AIM, 2007 7

AIM/Enduse[Global] - Regional bottom-up type model 23 regions (same as AIM/Global[CGE]), year 2000 to year 2050 - Regional energy enduse module coupled with Regional energy resource module International energy, basic materials balance module Regional macro-economy and energy service demand module - Emission sectors (activities) Industrial, residential and commercial, transport, agriculture, non-agricultural non CO2 emission sectors, F gases - Systematic reconciliation of base year information among stocks of energy devices, energy efficiency, energy services, and energy consumption - Gases: CO 2 , CH 4 , N 2 O, BC, SO 2 , and F gases - Compatibility with national AIM enduse modeling activity using same methodology and classification of energy/device/service Future direction of AIM, 2007 8 �