AIM modeling activity FY2012-FY2013 The 18 th AIM International - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
AIM modeling activity FY2012-FY2013 The 18 th AIM International - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
AIM modeling activity FY2012-FY2013 The 18 th AIM International Workshop December 15, 2012 NIES, Tsukuba, Japan Yuzuru Matsuoka Tabl able of of Cont onten ents 1. 1. Model odels i in n AIM model odel fam amily oper operat ating g
Tabl able of
- f Cont
- nten
ents
AIM modeling activity, FY2012-2013 2
1.
- 1. Model
- dels i
in n AIM model
- del fam
amily oper
- perat
ating g FY FY2012 2012 2.
- 2. An
n Int ntrod
- duc
uction of n of new new mem embe bers i in n AIM model
- del f
fam amily i in n FY FY2012 2012 -2013 2013 3.
- 3. Low
Low Car arbon P bon Pol
- licy Action
- ns (
(LC LCP-As) and and suppo upporting ng t tool
- ols
4.
- 4. Model
- del appl
applicat ation
- ns i
in n FY FY2012 and 2012 and FY FY2013 2013 5.
- 5. B
Broc
- chu
hures publ publishe hed/up upda dated ed in n 2012 2012
Model
- dels i
in n AIM model
- del f
fam amily opera
- perating F
FY2012 2012
- AIM/CGE(Global/National):
: One/multi-regi
gional
- nal CGE mode
- del.
Int nteg egration pl plat atform with h whi hich el elem ement mod
- dels ar
are e sof
- ft-lin
inked ac according to
- anal
analytical obj
- bjects. Globa
- bal and
and Nat ational scales. Two versions ar are now now in n oper
- perational stage
age; MPSGE ver ersion and and MCP ver ersion
- n
- AIM/Enduse(Global/National):
: One
ne or
- r mul
ulti-reg egion
- nal
al, mu mult lti- sec ector
- ral
al bot bottom
- m-up type
pe ene energy end end-us use e mode
- del. Integration platform of
ener ergy gy service’s gener erat ation
- n proc
- ces
esses es, ener ergy gy technol hnology
- gy
dev development, and and LC LCS pol
- policies. Globa
- bal, nat
national, and and loc
- cal scales.
- Extended snapshot tool (ExSS):
: A
A tool
- ol for
- r int
nteg egrating futur ure e econom
- nomic, indus
ustrial al, social al and ener ergy gy policies es, using ng social al ac accounting mat atrices, trad ade mat atrices, ener energy bal balan ance tabl ables, ener energy techn hnol
- logi
- gies
es, regional
- nal ener
ergy gy resour
- urces
es information.
- n. Now
- w, cov
- vers al
all mos
- st al
all sec ectors on
- n GHG em
- emissions. Singl
ngle/Multi-regi egion
- nal
al accou
- unt
nting ng type e tool.
3 AIM modeling activity, FY2012-2013
Mo Models in n AIM M mod model fami amily ope
- perating FY20
2012 (cont
- ntinu
nued ed)
- Back-casting model/Tool (BCM/BCT): A model
del for designi gning ng roadm dmaps aps towar ards ds low carbon bon societ eties
- es. Dynam
amic
- ptimi
mization type model.
- AFOLU models: Two
- type
pes ar are now now dev developed. AFOLU LU-A: A new new mode
- del for
- r AFOLU
LU sec ector’s ac activity, whi hich des describes the he dr driving for
- rces of
- f AFOLU
LU sec ectors with h agr agriculture and and for
- restry
pol policies, food,
- od, feed,
eed, bi bio-energy, indu ndustrial ac activities, and and land and-us use e balanc nces es. AFOLU LU-B: AFOLU LU sec ector’s GHG em emission red eduction mode
- del with
h bottom-up p technol hnology
- gy coupl
uplings ngs.
- Element models: Model
dels of spec ecific mecha hani nisms of social al- ec economic pr processes and and ene energy ser ervice dem demand, suc uch as as mac acro- econ
- nom
- my, dynam
namic demogr
- graph
aphy, buildi ding ng dynam amics, traffic demand and, mat aterial stoc
- cks and
and flow
- w, agr
agriculture for
- restry and
and land and-us use e activity.
4 AIM modeling activity, FY2012-2013
An n Int ntroduction of
- f new
new mem members in n AIM M mod model fami mily in FY2 Y2012 012 -2013 13
AFOLU-A model
Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land-use Activity model
LCP-Action T
- ols
T
- ols for designing and managing Low Carbon
Policy and connecting models’ output with policy actions
5 AIM modeling activity, FY2012-2013
AF AFOLU LU-A A model
- del
Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land-use Activity model
For projection of activity levels of AFOLU sectors and GHG
emissions from these sectors
Simple accounting type tool, based on land use accounting
table, food balance table and biomass balance table
Agriculture and forestry activities are consistent with socio-
economic variables from other models, i.e. ExSS, CGE
Considering production, consumption, import and export of
forestry and agriculture products including bio-energy crops
GAMS linear/non-linear program Developed by K.Gomi and
Y.Matsuoka
Now, applying to national and regional studies of Indonesia
6 AIM modeling activity, FY2012-2013
AF AFOLU LU-A A model
- del
Its Modules & variables Forestry module Energy module
- Crop production
- Head of livestock
- Biofuel production
- Timber production
- Degraded forest area
- Deforestation area
- Protected area
- Biofuel
demand & supply
- Population
- Industrial output
- Transport demand
- Food & feed
demand & supply
- Population
- Population
- Urbanization
- Industrial output
- Agro waste
generation
- Renewable
energy
- Wood products
demand & supply
Socio-economic module Waste module
- Fuel wood
demand
Bioenergy module
- Agricultural
residue
- Fuel crop
production
Landuse module Agriculture module
7 AIM modeling activity, FY2012-2013
AFOL OLU-B mode model
Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land-use sectors’
Bottom-up type emission reduction model
Technology based bottom-up type model, which consist of Agriculture/
Livestock module and FOLU module
Calculates GHG emission mitigation potentials and combinations of
mitigation technologies in AFOLU sectors, which minimize the net financial costs under arbitrary given conditions.
Two types of optimization scheme, 1) Time sequential optimization, 2) Over
the entire period optimization
Requires information on 1) GHG emission reduction technologies, 2) Future
scenarios of productions of agriculture, livestock and forestry and land-use change, 3) Scenarios of prices of commodities and energy, 4) Policy scenarios on GHG emission tax, energy tax rate, subsidies etc.
Developed by T.Hasegawa and Y.Matsuoka Applied to national studies of Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Bangladesh 8 AIM modeling activity, FY2012-2013
Coupl upling o g of Ex ExSS SS, AFO AFOLU-A and AFO and AFOLU-B
AIM modeling activity, FY2012-2013 9
ExSS
- Demographic and Labor Force
Accounting
- Economic, Industrial and Trade
Accounting Matrix
- Transport demand and Supply
- Energy demand and Supply
- Energy saving and emission reduction
technologies
GHG emission projection and reduction potential
AFOLU-A
- Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry activities
- Biomass energy production
- Bio-waste accounting
- Landuse accounting
AFOLU-B
Low Carbon Policy Actions GHG emission projection and reduction potential
- Emission reduction technologies
- Energy saving technologies in AFOLU
- Emission from LULC
Low Carbon Policy Actions Low Carbon Policy Actions
GHG emissions, Energy consumption and Solid Waste disposal in Residential, Commercial, Industrial, Transportation, and Power sectors GHG emissions, Biowaste generation from AFOLU sectors
AIM modeling activity, FY2012-2013 10
Enduse (Abridged version) ExSS
- Demographic and Labor Force
Accounting
- Economic, Industrial and Trade
Accounting Matrix
- Transport demand and Supply
- Energy demand and Supply
GHG emission projection and reduction potential
AFOLU-A
- Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry activities
- Biomass energy production
- Bio-waste accounting
- Landuse accounting
AFOLU-B
- Emission reduction technologies
- Energy saving technologies in AFOLU
- Emission from LULC
Low Carbon Policy Actions
- Emission reduction technologies in Non
AFOLU sectors
- Energy saving technologies in non AFOLU
sectors
Coupl
- upling of
ng of Ex ExSS SS, A AFO FOLU LU-A and and AFO FOLU LU-B
As an an int nteg egrated des design and and as assessment tool
- ol for
- r Low Carbon
bon Policies es
Up to now, we proposed many “Low Carbon Policy Actions (LCP-As)”
AIM modeling activity, FY2012-2013 11
For example,
“Low Carbon Policy Actions (LCP-As)” and related LCD framework, such as NAMA
AIM modeling activity, FY2012-2013 12
Low Carbon Policy Actions (LCP-As)
UNEP Riso Centre, 2011, A primer on framing NAMA in Developing Countries
Low Carbon Policy Actions (LCP-As)
LCP-A is a deliverable-
- riented grouping of
elementally programs that
- rganizes and totals the
scope of the LCP .
Overall structure of LCP-As
is shown with its Work Breakdown Structure (LCP- Action Breakdown Structure). It is a graphical format of hierarchically displaying deliverable measures and projects, which are further broken down into more detailed deliverables.
An example of LCP-ABS from IMLCSBP 13 AIM modeling activity, FY2012-2013
Hier erar archy hy o
- f LCPAs syst
stem em
Quantifie d
- bje c tive s
L CPAs Sub- ac tions Me asur e s
Prog ra ms
0 L
CP ta rg e ts, suc h a s 50% c ut in c a rb o n e missio n inte nsity, c re a tio n o f 100,000 ne w jo b b y 2030
1.0 Po lic y Ac tions ne e de d to a c hie ve the
Qua ntifie d o b je c tive s o f the L CP
1.1.1 Suba c tions/ Me a sure s a re de ta ile d
b re a kdo wn a nd inte rpre ta tio n o f a c tio ns into stra te g ie s with a c le a re r imple me nta tio n dime nsio n
1.1.1.1 Prog ra ms – Spe c ific a c tivitie s,
de live ra b le s, fro m whic h re so urc e re q uire me nts, b udg e t, imple me nta tio n a g e nc ie s a nd dura tio n ma y b e ide ntifie d/ e stima te d
14 AIM modeling activity, FY2012-2013
LCP LCP-Actio ion T Tools ls
Tools for designing and managing LCP-As
LCP-A tools are for
Connecting outputs of models with LCP-As quantitatively Monitoring and management of LCP-As progress
They are composed of
・ LCP Policy/Action Reference Database ・ LCP-A Breakdown Structures (LCP-ABS, formerly called WBS) ・ LCP-A Specification Cards (LCP-ASPEC) ・ LCP-A Design Structure Matrix (LCP-ADSM) ・ Tool for attributing LCP Quantified targets to each Action program (Action program’s RIPPLE effect) (LCP-ARIPPLE) ・ LCP-A Backcasting tool (LCP-ABCT)
15 AIM modeling activity, FY2012-2013
LCP CP-Actio ion Specif ific icatio ion Cards (LCP CP-ASPE SPEC)
Dictionary of a LCP-Action Breakdown Structure
Describes the Scope statement,
Workflow, Timeline of implementation, Required resource, Costing, Implementation organization, Stakeholders, SWOT*, Current status (where you are / how much is done /not done) of the Actions/Projects
In order to discuss/analyze the
Detailed design, Progress management, Sharing and communicating of the relevant information among research groups, implementation agencies and stockholders
* SWOT: Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats An example from IMLCSBP case 16 AIM modeling activity, FY2012-2013
LCP CP-Action
- n Design
n St Struc uctur ure e Matri rix (LCP-AD ADSM SM)
LCP-ADSM shows relations and interactions among programs in
LCP-ABS and crucial parameters/variables/output measure which influence quantified targets of LCPAs, with compact, easily scalable, and intuitively readable representation
LCP-ADSM is a DSM*1, which has a structure of MDM*2 with
four domains*3 , i.e. Player/Actor, Program/Action, Crucial parameter, and Quantified target
*1 DSM (Design Structure Matrix) is a network modeling tool to represent the elements comprising a system and their interactions *2 MDM(Multidomain Matrix) is an extension of DSM modeling in which two or more DSM models in different domains are represented simultaneously. Each single-domain DSM is on the diagonal of the MDM, and the off- diagonal blocks are DMMs *3 Domain is a realm of the elements comprising a DSM model of a system (e.g., product, process, organization, etc.). *4 DMM (Domain Mapping Matrix) is a non-square matrix mapping the domain of one DSM to the domain of another DSM. Terminology defined in Eppinger, D. and Browning, T., Design Structure Matrix Methods and Applications, MIT Press, 2012 17 AIM modeling activity, FY2012-2013
Four
- ur domai
domains ns i in n LC LCP-AD ADSM SM
AIM modeling activity, FY2012-2013 18
Actors/Players: Central and local governments, private sectors, communities, citizens, International organizations, NPOs Program/Actions: Programs containing Low Carbon Policy actions Crucial parameters/Performance measures: Index for measuring the output of programs directly connecting with LCP quantified targets Quantified targets: Quantified targets of LCP, not only GHG emission reductions, but also including relevant sustainable indexes Actor-Program DMM Program-Measure DMM Measure-Target DMM Target-Actor Impact DMM Measure-Actor Impact DMM Objectives including co-benefits
- f LCP
Performance Monitoring
- f LCP
An n ex example of
- f LC
LCP-AD ADSM SM
- Direction of information is from column to row
- Elements of matrix denote functional types of relation between column elements and
row elements
19 AIM modeling activity, FY2012-2013
ALG LG AM AMOE AM AMOI AD ADOE AC ACOC ACTZ TZ PT PT PI PI PU PU PB PB PR PR PL PL PC PC PD PD PS PS PG PG PW PW PE PE p1_RES_ ES_EEI EEI p2_RES_ ES_ESVG ESVG p3_RES_ ES_ESVG ESVG p4_ p4_RES_RE p5_C _COM_E M_EEI p6_C _COM_E M_ESV p7_C _COM_E M_ESV p8_C _COM_R M_RE p9_ p9_IND_EEI p10_PT PTS_ S_EEI EEIa p11_PT PTS_ S_EEI EEIb QTG TG QTE TE QTS TS Loc Local al gov gover ernm nment ent ALG LG Mini nistry of- f Env
- nment
- urces
- f Indus
- f Ener
- f Com
- mmer
- n
- ver
- nstruc
- n
- mmuni
- nsens
- wth
- urces
- nment
- r (Ener
- vem
- f appl
- r (Ener
- n - Air
- nditioni
- ning)
- r (Ener
- n - Other
- r (Renew
- mmer
- r (Ener
- vem
- f appl
- mmer
- r (Ener
- n - Air
- nditioni
- ning)
- mmer
- r (Ener
- n - Other
- mmer
- r (Renew
- r (Ener
- vem
- f appl
- r (Ener
- vem
- f by
- gy impr
- vem
- r (Ener
- vem
- n reduc
- n
- lid
- n
Progr
- gram
am/Action
- n
Cruc ucial al Par aram amet eter er/ Per erfor
- rmanc
ance e meas easur ure
Quant uantified ed tar arget gets
Actor/ r/ Stackhol
- lder
Actor/ r/ Stackholder
Meas easur ure- e-Tar arget get DMM
Quant uantif ified ied tar arget getsAc Actor-
- r-
Program DMM MM
Progr gram am/Action Crucial P Parameter/ Performance m e measure
Progr
- gram
am DSM Progr
- gram
am-Meas easur ure DMM MM
Tar arget get- Actor- r
- ng par
param amet eter ers ar are e des described bed in n pr progr
- gram
am DSM
Measure-Actor Impact DM DMM
Cas asual uality from- m par
- gram
- gram
Several hundred programs
Several dozens to hundreds parameters
Mainly described in ExSS, CGE, and enduse model Planning stage 1 Planning stage 2
LCP LCP-ARI RIPPL PPLE
A tool for quantification of causality in planning stage 1 : To calculate contribution of LCP Action program’s ripple effects to quantified targets
A tool for calculating contributions of LCP-A programs to the objectives of
LCP-A, quantitatively, used coupling with ExSS/Enduse/CGE
Implemented with GAMS/MIP and Excel Main input : LCP-ASPEC, LCP-ABS, LCP-ADSM Output : Attributed portions of Quantified targets/performance measures to
each program and actor, directly and indirectly
Attribution link Program A Program B Program ...
Increasing of people’s preference of Technology T1 Establishment of subsidy of Technology T2
・・・・・・・・ ・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・
Ex ExSS SS AI AIM/endus enduse AI AIM/CGE
LCP Actions
Quantified targets
- f LCPAs
Cause-and-effect link ARIPPLES
Contribution
- f Program A
Contribution
- f Program A
Contribution
- f Program A
20 AIM modeling activity, FY2012-2013
Colla llabora ratio ion framework rk o
- f Tools
ls for
- r con
- ncrete des
design of
- f LCP
LCP-Act ctions
- ns
AIM modeling activity, FY2012-2013 21
ARIPPL PPLE
A tool for calculating contribution and attribution of/to LCP- A program’s ripple effects LCP CP-ASP SPEC EC Dictionar
- nary o
- f a
LCP CP-A B Break akdow down n Struc uctur ure e
LCP CP-ADSM SM Design S gn Structur ure Mat atrix of
- f LC
LCP Actions
- ns
LCP CP-ABS BS Work Breakdow down n Stru ructure re o
- f LCP
Actions
- ns
ExSS+ S+AF AFOL OLU AIM/ M/en endu duse AIM/ M/CG CGE
Technol hnologi
- gies
es’ d databas abase f e for AIM/endus enduse
BCT CT Backca ckcast sting Too
- ol f
for
- r
design gning L ng LCP A Action n roadm dmap ap
OUTPUTS of
- f Cal
alcul ulat ation
- n
At pl planni anning ng stage : age : Expec pected ed GHG emi emission r
- n reduc
eductions
- ns and
and cos
- sts at
attribut buted ed to
- eac
each h Action and
- n and Tec
echnol hnology
- gy
At moni monitor
- ring
ng stage : age : Per erfor
- rmanc
ance e meas measur ures es at attribut buted ed to
- eac
each A h Action and
- n and
Tec echnol hnolog
- gy
OUTPUT o
- f Calcul
ulat ation
- n
Time me-serial r res esou
- urce and
and cos
- st
alloc
- cat
ation f
- n for implem
ement enting L ng LCP-A by technologies and countermeasure by Action and Program Polic licy/ Action
- n
Refer erenc ence e Databas abase e
An n ex example of
- f at
attri ribution of
- f GHG emi
emission redu eduction n to LCP-Ac Action
- ns, from
- m IMLCSB
SBP
Green Economy: 59% Green Community: 21% Green Environment: 20%
694 319 1,012 441 1,085 587 188 996 1,276 1,632 155 2,905 156 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 EEI in Residential sector CDR in residential sector EEI in Commercial sector CDR in Commercial sector EEI in Industry sector EEI (vehicle) in Passenger transport … EEI (TDM) in Passenger transport … Modal shift in Passenger transport … Shorter trip distance in Passenger … EEI in Freight transport sector Modal shift in Freight transport sector EEI in power sector Renewables ktCO2
Contribution of Emission reduction by sector/counter- measure Contributions of Emission reduction by action
22 AIM modeling activity, FY2012-2013
As for the preparing LCP-AWS in Asian countries, Mr. Hibino, MHIR are requesting each country’s AIM mitigation teams to submit LCP-database and AWS, by Feb. 15, 2013
CHN National IND National THA National THA region IDN National MYS National Bophal
LCP-database ◎ ◎ ◎ ◎ ◎ ◎ ◎ AWS/Buildings ◎ ◎ ◎ ◎ ◎ ◎ ◎ AWS/ Transportation ◎ ◎ ◎ ◎ ◎ ◎ ◎ AWS/Industrial ◎ ◎ ◎ ◎ ◎ ◎ ◎ AWS/Energy ◎ ◎ ◎ ◎ ◎ ◎ ◎ AWS/Agriculture △ △ △ △ ◎ ◎ △ AWS/Forestry △ △ △ △ ◎ ◎ △ ◎:Mandatory, △:Voluntary
23
Model
- del appl
application
- ns condu
conducted i in n FY2012 2012
ExSS CGE AFOLU-B China NIES (MPSGE), paper KU (MCP), paper India IIM (MPSGE) KU (MCP), paper Thailand TU (ExSS), brochure, paper TU(MPSGE) KU (MCP),FY2012 Indonesia ITB+KU(ExSS) brochure KU (MCP), FY2012 NIES+KU Vietnam KU (ExSS), brochure, paper KU (MCP), paper NIES+KU, brochure, paper Bangladesh KU (ExSS), brochure,paper NIES+KU Malaysia UTM+KU (ExSS including Solid waste, Industry sectors), preparing brochure KU (MCP), FY2012 NIES+KU Iskandar, Malaysia UTM+KU (ExSS), brochure,paper, blueprint Putrajaya, Malaysia UTM+KU(ExSS), brochure,paper Guangzhou, China GIEC+KU(ExSS), preparing brochure Kyonggi Province, Korea SNU+KU(ExSS), preparing brochure National studies Regional studies
24 AIM modeling activity, FY2012-2013
Model
- del appl
application
- ns sched
scheduled ed i in n FY2012 2012-13 13
25 AIM modeling activity, FY2012-2013
Country/Region ExSS, AFOLU-A, AFOLU-B, LCP-A tools CGE AIM/enduse China
MPSGE extended to multi-provincial regions (NIES ), MCP version coupled with enduse technology model (KU)
India
MCP version coupled with enduse technology model (KU)
Thailand
ExSS coupled with AFOLU-A (KU,TU) MCP version coupled with enduse technology model (KU) AIM/enduse (MIHR,TU)
Indonesia
ExSS coupled with AFOLU-A and B, multi-provincial regions (KU, IPB, ITB) MCP version coupled with enduse technology model (KU) AIM/enduse (MIHR, ITB)
Vietnam
AFOLU-A coupled with AFOLU-B (KU, ISPONRE) MCP version coupled with enduse technology model (KU)
Bangladesh
ExSS coupled with AFOLU-A and B (KU)
Malaysia
ExSS coupled with AFOLU-A and B (KU,UTM) MCP version coupled with enduse technology model (KU)
Cambodia
ExSS coupled with AFOLU-A and B (KU)
Taiwan, Philippines, Korea
MCP version coupled with enduse technology model (KU)
Nepal Iskandar, Malaysia
ExSS coupled with LCP-A tools (KU, UTM)
(not determined), Thailand
National studies Regional studies
(KMUT)
Br Brochu hures res published/ ed/updat updated ed in 2012
Com
- mmun
unicati tion and feedb and feedbacks of
- f LC
LCS stud tudy to to real eal w wor
- rld
2009/11
- n going
2011/10 2011/03 2010/10 2007/05 2009/10 2009/11 2009/10 under preparation 2009/08,2012/11 2011/09,2012/11 2009/10,2012/02 2010/02,2012/09 2010/10,2012/10
26 AIM modeling activity, FY2012-2013
under preparation