Future AIM modeling modeling Future AIM ~Focused on mid- -term - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Future direction of AIM, 2006 1

Future AIM Future AIM modeling modeling

~Focused on mid ~Focused on mid-

• term national integrated assessment models~

term national integrated assessment models~

Yuzuru Matsuoka Yuzuru Matsuoka The 1 The 11 1th AIM International Workshop th AIM International Workshop 1 19 9-

• 21

21, , February February 200 2006 6 At At Ohyama Ohyama Memorial Hall Memorial Hall National Institute for Environmental Studies, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 305 305-

• 8506,Tsukuba, Japan

8506,Tsukuba, Japan

Future direction of AIM, 2006 2

Focusing Focusing points points

• AIM project(B52)
• APEIS
• Low Carbon Society toward 2050 Project（S3)
• Climate Impact Top-down project（S4)
• Others
• Reinforcement of national/regional

integrated assessment processes coupled with global assessment processes.

• Expansion of global warming specific issues

to more comprehensive integration of environmental issues, such as low material society, WEHAB problems, and so on.

Future direction of AIM, 2006 3

AIM model family, FY2003 AIM model family, FY2003

Constructing Institution Work-support- type tooｌ Others AIM/Ecosystem AIM/Material AIM/CGE AIM/Trend AIM/Enduse[local] AIM/Enduse[country] AIM/Enduse[global] AIM/Impact AIM/Impact[Count ry] AIM/Impact[policy ] (tentative name) AIM/DVM-LU (tentative name) AIM/Water AIM/Air AIM/Institution (tentative name) AIM/Common Database A-GIS APEIS/St rategy Database Category Conservation of ecosystem/ water stress/ landuse/ pollution in developing countries CO2 reduction, energy consumption, waste management. environmental industry, and recycling-based society Energy, GHG Control Evaluate country- wise environmental problems GHG,SO2,NOX,PM abatement technology GHG,SO2,NOX,PM abatement technology GHG,SO2,NOX,PM abatement technology Impact assessment of climate change Impact assessment of climate change Integration of mitigation policy evaluation and impact assessment Impact assessment of climate change and land-use change Impact assessment Environmental Assesment International egotiation, international relations Sharing of data Data visualization analysis

• f

counterm easure Objective Modeling of relationship among economic activities, land use and ecosystem Economic and material flow impact by waste management and climate policy Long-term global warming Quantification and analysis of energy and environmental variables Technology selection for global warming, regional air pollution Technology selection for global warming, regional air pollution Technology selection for global warming, regional air pollution Impact assessment at global scale Impact assessment at country scale Investigation of stabilization level and mitigation policy with considering consequent impacts Integrated assessment of the interaction among climate, vegetation and land-use Integrated assessment of water supply and demand focusing

• n urban area

Regional and country scale atmospheric environmental analysis Supporting constructing international institution Sharing of input and output of AIM family's models in unified format Addition of geographic information to

• utput of AIM

family's model analysis for effect innovation al counterm easure against environme ntal problem Model type Global economic model + various process models sucha as water Country economic model Global economic top-down model Country-level econometric model Country-level or regional-level bottom-up model Country-level or regional-level bottom- up model Country-level or regional-level bottom- up model Process model based on raster GIS data Process model based on raster GIS data Tool for synthesizing current knowledges Integrated model (process model + global economic model) City model （coupling process and statistical model） Atmospheric quality model + GIS Incorporating knowledge base and information of international institutions with AIM models, and assessing institutions Database Interface between AIM family's model and GIS Bottom- up model Target year ～2100 ～2030-2050 ～2100-2150 ～2032 ～2030 ～2050 ～2050 ～2100 ～2100 ～2050 (Mitigation policy) ～2100 (Impact) ～2150 ～2050

• ～2100
• 2050

Destination MA (millennium ecosystem assessment)/ APEIS/ General environmental analysis Carbon tax/ APEIS/BKP/ Coming top-down fund EMF21（Energy Modeling Forum） APEIS IPCC UNEP/GEO4 ACROPOLIS Tool for country and local level policy making by AIM team in each country, Estimation of future GHG inventories Tool for country and local level policy making by AIM team in each country ACROPOLIS EMF21 APEIS BKP IPCC APEIS AIACC GEF APEIS AIACC GEF BKP,IPCC,Initiativ e Next generation of AIM model APEIS Regional Environmental Planning, Auxiliary benefit analysis BKP, IPCC Sharing of statistical data Data transfer among AIM family's models Provision of interface for

• utput of AIM

family's model Data visualization of AIM model's

• utput

Data transfer among AIM models with consistency in spatial scale APEIS Content Ecosytem and landuse in global

• env. problems

Assess reduction

• f environmental

loads by promoting recycle, environmental industry and investment Main model for top-down energy model Simple environmental burden estimation model that can be

• perated by

policymakers in each country Characteristics of regional detailed resolution, Interface between regional air pollution and energy management Assess country-level energy and GHG reduction policy, Main tool to achieve reduction target for AIM team in each country Bottom-up model covering world region and supplemented by AIM/CGE Flagship model of AIM/Impact study Distribution package for collaborative research teams of AIM Communication tool for policymakers Full couple model

• f land-use and

land-cover changes Urbanization, water use management, coupling water quantity and quality problem Coupled with AIM/Enduse[local] , analysis of regional atmospheric environment To assess efficiency and equity of UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol etc. Supplement tool

• f AIM family's

model Interface of stakeholders for

• utput of AIM

family's model Supplement tool of AIM family's model Interface

• f policy

makers Work time schedule Middle for MA/ Middle for APEIS Short for cabon tax in Japan and BKP/ long for application to Asian countries Short-term: EMF21, middle- term: APEIS, GEO4, long-term: IPCC Operational Operational Operational short-term: ACROPOLIS, EMF21, middle-term: APEIS, BKP, long-term:IPCC Operational Short/Mid term Mid term Mid/Long term Short/Mid term Soon Short/Mid term Short -Medium Short -Medium Short - Medium 1:MoE ○ carbob tax / BKP / recycling- based society ○ＢＫＰ ○ＢＫＰ ○BKP ○BKP 2:APEIS ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ 3:MA ○ ○ △ 4:EMF21 ○ ○ 5:ACROPOLIS ○ ○ 5:IPCC ○ ○ ○BKP ○ △ 6:GEO, etc △Asian countries ○ＧＥＯ４ ○ＧＥＯ４ ○ ○ ○ ○AIACC,GEF ○Initiative ○ Audience Global MoE/National gov. Outside Outside each country, local government, outside MoE, each country government, outside MoE, each country government, outside Outside Outside MoE/outside Outside Outside Local government Outside Inside of AIM team, Policy makers Inside of AIM team MOE, Asian foreign- governme nts Task Completion of model Link with enduse model Completion To include more environmental indices Link with AIM/AIR(air pollution model and GIS, revision of data Revision of data Link with the country models Additional modules Manual writing Additional modules and Manual writing Fix specification and development schedule in detail Make a linkage between land-use model and global dynamic vegetation model Linkage of water resource assessment model Link with A-GIS Incorporating with

• ther AIM models

Linkage with AIM family's model Reinforcement of database Development of user interface and various command for interpolation Reinforce ment of database Main modeller Masui & Hijioka Masui Fujino Fujino Kainuma Kainuma Kainuma Takahashi, Hijioka Takahashi, Hijioka Takahashi, Hijioka Takahashi Hijioka Fujiwara Kameyama Hibino of FRIC Ishii of FRIC Hibino of FRIC Top-down/CGE End-use, Energy, Technology Bottom-up Impact Assessment

Future direction of AIM, 2006 4

Kind Name Category Objective Model type Target year

Ecosystem Conservation of ecosystem/ water stress/ landuse/ pollution in developing countries Modeling of relationship among economic activities, land use and ecosystem Global economic model + various process models such as water ～2100

Specialized in specific environmental change processes

CGE Energy, GHG Control Long-term global warming Global economic top-down model ～2100-2150

Specialized in energy supply and demand mechanism

Material CO2 reduction, energy consumption, waste management. environmental industry, and recycling-based society Economic and material flow impact by waste management and climate policy Country economic model ～2030-2050

Connecting with stock models, houshold models, transport models and so on.

Trend Evaluate country-wise environmental problems Quantification and analysis of energy and environmental variables Country-level econometric model ～2032

Extention to simultanious equation models, more firm caliblation Backcasting GHG, Energy, Recycled society Establishing scenarios toward saustainable society from view points

• f environment and economy

Country-level dynamic

• ptimization model

～2050 Merging and aggregation of AIM/material and AIM/Trend

Models for scenario making

Population Population, household Establishing scenarios toward saustainable society from view points

• f environment and economy

Cohort-component model, houshold transition matrix model ～2050 Building Residential, non- residential building Estimation of building demands related to houshold change, economic change and so on Stock dynamics model ～2050 Transport Passenger and Freight transport demand Estimation of transport demand related to national/regional/urban land planning Trip generation, modal share modeling ～2050 Quantitative shinario making tools for mid-term national/regional integrated assessment Stocks Infrastracture, capital, buildings Estimation of raw material needs, waste generation related to recycling and economic activity ～2050 Energy supply and demand regulation Temporal and spatial regulation of electlicity, heat and hydrogen Adjustment among temporal and spatial fluctuation of energy demand and supply Simulation and optimization type model ～2050

Enduse[global] GHG,SO2,NOX,PM abatement technology Technology selection for global warming, regional air pollution Country-level or regional-level bottom-up model ～2050 Enduse[country] GHG,SO2,NOX,PM abatement technology Technology selection for global warming, regional air pollution Country-level or regional-level bottom-up model ～2050 Enduse[local] GHG,SO2,NOX,PM abatement technology Technology selection for global warming, regional air pollution Country-level or regional-level bottom-up model ～2030 Impact Impact assessment of climate change Impact assessment at global scale Process model based on raster GIS data ～2100 Impact[Country] Impact assessment of climate change Impact assessment at country scale Process model based on raster GIS data ～2100 Impact[policy] Integration of mitigation policy evaluation and impact assessment Investigation of stabilization level and mitigation policy with considering consequent impacts Tool for synthesizing current knowledges ～2100 Water Impact assessment Integrated assessment of water supply and demand focusing on urban area City model（coupling process and statistical model） ～2050 Air Environmental Assesment Regional and country scale atmospheric environmental analysis Atmospheric quality model + GIS ～2050

FY 2006 activity

Top- down/CGE End-use, Energy, Technology Bottom-up Impact Assessment

Keeping maintainance and reinforcement ? Anyway, it is necessary to reconfirm the developing policy, to review and to reorganize it. Coupling with AIM/GBDB(Global basin database), and reinforce for more specific issues, such as MDG and so on Coupling with AIM/Enduse[local], and estabilsh firm and sound platform for assessing long-range and urban air pollution issues. Use common Economic module Keep maintainance Still developing. Estimation of feasibility and economic burdens of low carbon world

AIM model family, FY2006 AIM model family, FY2006

Future direction of AIM, 2006 5

AIM model family, FY2006 AIM model family, FY2006 – –topdown topdown/CGE /CGE-

Future direction of AIM, 2006 6

Kind Name Category Objective Model type Target year

Material CO2 reduction, energy consumption, waste management. environmental industry, and recycling-based society Economic and material flow impact by waste management and climate policy Country economic model ～2030-2050

Connecting with stock models, houshold models, transport models and so on.

Trend Evaluate country-wise environmental problems Quantification and analysis of energy and environmental variables Country-level econometric model ～2032

Extention to simultanious equation models, more firm caliblation Backcasting GHG, Energy, Recycled society Establishing scenarios toward saustainable society from view points

• f environment and economy

Country-level dynamic

• ptimization model

～2050 Merging and aggregation of AIM/material and AIM/Trend

Models for scenario making

Population Population, household Establishing scenarios toward saustainable society from view points

• f environment and economy

Cohort-component model, houshold transition matrix model ～2050 Building Residential, non- residential building Estimation of building demands related to houshold change, economic change and so on Stock dynamics model ～2050 Transport Passenger and Freight transport demand Estimation of transport demand related to national/regional/urban land planning Trip generation, modal share modeling ～2050 Quantitative shinario making tools for mid-term national/regional integrated assessment Stocks Infrastracture, capital, buildings Estimation of raw material needs, waste generation related to recycling and economic activity ～2050 Energy supply and demand regulation Temporal and spatial regulation of electlicity, heat and hydrogen Adjustment among temporal and spatial fluctuation of energy demand and supply Simulation and optimization type model ～2050

Enduse[global] GHG,SO2,NOX,PM abatement technology Technology selection for global warming, regional air pollution Country-level or regional-level bottom-up model ～2050 Enduse[country] GHG,SO2,NOX,PM abatement technology Technology selection for global warming, regional air pollution Country-level or regional-level bottom-up model ～2050 Enduse[local] GHG,SO2,NOX,PM abatement technology Technology selection for global warming, regional air pollution Country-level or regional-level bottom-up model ～2030

FY 2006 activity

Top- down/CGE End-use, Energy, Technology Bottom-up

Keep maintainance Still developing. Estimation of feasibility and economic burdens of low carbon world

AIM model family, FY2006 AIM model family, FY2006 – –scenario making scenario making-

• Integrated with

Integrated with “ “Menoko Menoko” ”, a , a simpified simpified rule rule-

• of
• f-
• thumb type

thumb type accounting tool accounting tool Hard link with AIM/Material or Hard link with AIM/Material or AIM/ AIM/Backcasting Backcasting

Future direction of AIM, 2006 7

AIM model family, FY2006 AIM model family, FY2006 – –Enduse Enduse and impact and impact-

Future direction of AIM, 2006 8

Integrated Assessment Model for Integrated Assessment Model for national/regional s national/regional scenario cenario making making

The objects of national/regional scenario making with IAM are;

• 1. To support designing

To support designing future societies, which satisfy future societies, which satisfy prescribed environmental, economical and social targets prescribed environmental, economical and social targets.

• 2. To show feasible, concrete and plausible pathways that

To show feasible, concrete and plausible pathways that will reach the future societies. will reach the future societies. The design is consistent, quantitative, feasible and plausible from the view points of technology, economy and sociality. Often the designed societies are not on the BaU pathway (current trend), and in order to reach them, we need many trend breaking interventions trend breaking interventions.

Future direction of AIM, 2006 9

Integrated Assessment Model for Integrated Assessment Model for national/regional s national/regional scenario cenario making making (Snapshot model) (Snapshot model)

First of all, to design future quantitatively , we must describe concrete pictures of desired societies, which are feasible , and consistent with physical, economical, technological laws. To keep the consistency and feasibility, we are developing a group of models, called “Snapshot models”. Example of snapshot models are;

• Household production/Lifestyle model

Household production/Lifestyle model

• Passenger/Freight transportation demand model

Passenger/Freight transportation demand model

• Energy supply and demand balance model

Energy supply and demand balance model

• Energy technology bottom

Energy technology bottom-

• up model

up model

• General equilibrium model

General equilibrium model

Future direction of AIM, 2006 10

Integrated Assessment Model for Integrated Assessment Model for national/regional s national/regional scenario cenario making making (Transition model) (Transition model)

Secondly, to design pathways which leads us to future prescribed normative societies, we must design concrete schedules of trend breaking innovation processes of technology, social and economic systems and infrastructure development with some rationale. To design these schedules, we are developing a group of models, called “Transition models”. Example of transition models are;

• Infrastructure/building dynamic model

Infrastructure/building dynamic model

• Dynamic macro

Dynamic macro-

• economy model

economy model

• Population and household transition model

Population and household transition model

Future direction of AIM, 2006 11

Coupling of storylines, transition models and snapshot models Coupling of storylines, transition models and snapshot models

Population dynamic model (cohort model including birth/death, inter-regional/national migration) Technology development schedule for energy use, production, and consumption (R&D plan, expert judgment)

Archive data set of Socio-economic change Archive data set of Technology development and diffusion

Socio-economic scenario, Intervention scenario

Macro-economic model (econometric model for parameter estimate of supply-side potential productivity change, IS balance and calculation of BAU scenario) Infrastructure/building dynamic model (econometric/engineering bottom-up approach for residential/nonresidential housing, construction and retirement of energy supply facilities)

Transition Model Snap shot model

Trajectory Archive data set of Energy Balance, Environmental Burden, and Cost

Scenario, Storyline

Passenger/Freight Transportation demand model (parameter estimate of trip generation, modal share using statistics on person trip, traffic flow, freight flow and others. Service demand estimation assuming technology and behavior change) Energy supply and demand balance model (adjusting seasonal/daily energy balance of electricity, heat, and hydrogen supply and demand considering infrastructure development) Household production/Lifestyle model (identify effects of consumer behavior considering change of age/type of household/ environment-oriented preferences on energy service demand, transportation trip demand by econometric methods and estimate impacts of intervention scenarios) Energy technology bottom-up model (technology selection of energy supply, conversion, consumption using econometric/engineering/management methods) General equilibrium model (investigate feasibility, economic impacts considering general equilibrium of approx. 40 services including energy at service and labor market with support

• f other models)

Future direction of AIM, 2006 12

Forecasting from now and Forecasting from now and Backcasting Backcasting from future from future prescribed/normative world by the transition models prescribed/normative world by the transition models

2020 2050 2000 Checking year

Long-term target year

Release of AIM result

Technology development, socio-economic change projected by well calibrated transition models

Forecasting Backcasting Normative target world Reference future world

Service demand change by changing social behavior, lifestyles and institutions Mitigation Technology development

Required Trend breaking Intervention and Investment

Calculation of required intervention by dynamic

• ptimization model

Environmental pressure

Sufficient calibration in order to reflect historical trends

Future direction of AIM, 2006 13

Concerns and Keywords of the Future Society Concerns and Keywords of the Future Society

Besides technology development, the models should describe the following future trends and their impacts on environment.

• Demographic transition: Low fertility, Aging society
• Lifestyle change: Household type changes, Empowerment
• f women, Affluence, Flexibility, Insecurity, Social capital

loosing, Pension problem

• Transportation change: Urbanization, Modal change
• Industrial change: Weightless society, hyper-IT,

globalization

• Other severe environmental constraints, such as an
• rientation toward recycle-oriented society

Future direction of AIM, 2006 14

Change of types of household and its impact on CO Change of types of household and its impact on CO2

2 emission

emission Experience of Japan, 1965 Experience of Japan, 1965-

• 2000

2000

10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Year

Household (thousand)

One-person Father/mother and child(ren) Others A married couple only A married couple and their child(ren)

Projection

0. 1 0. 2 0. 3 0. 4 0. 5 0. 6 0. 7 0. 8 0. 9

1965 1975 1985 1995

Y ear C O 2 em i ssi

• n

( t C / ( capi t a・y)

A ver age A m ar r i ed coupl e and t hei r chi l d( r en) A m ar r i ed coupl e

• nl

y Fat her / m ot her and chi l d( r en) O t her s O ne- per son

Future direction of AIM, 2006 15

Stock dynamics - Material stock balances in Japan’s society -

10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 100,000 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 西暦（年） 建築物 土木構造物 機械設備 その他 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 西暦（年） 建築物 土木構造物 機械設備 家具・建具 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 西暦（年） 建築物 土木構造物 機械設備 家具・建具 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 西暦（年） 建築物 土木構造物 機械設備 家具・建具 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 西暦（年） 建築物 土木構造物 機械設備 家具・建具 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 西暦（年） 建築物 鉄道・電力 港湾・漁港 道路・橋脚 その他 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 西暦（年） 建築物 鉄道・電力 港湾・漁港 道路・橋脚 その他

Input of wood 1000t/y

Buildings Infra- Structure Hardware

Furniture

Input of cement 1000t/y

Buildings Railway,

Electric Power

Port and harbor Road and bridge Others Buildings Infra- Structure Hardware

Furniture

Input of iron 1000t/y

400,000 800,000 1,200,000 1,600,000 2,000,000 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 建築物 土木構造物 機械設備 その他 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 木材のストック量(1000t) 建築物 土木構造物 機械設備 家具・建具 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 木材のストック量(1000t) 建築物 土木構造物 機械設備 家具・建具 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 （ ） 建築物 鉄道・電力 港湾・漁港 道路・橋脚 その他 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 （ ） 建築物 鉄道・電力 港湾・漁港 道路・橋脚 その他

Buildings Infra- Structure Hardware

Furniture

Buildings Railway, Electric Power Port and harbor Road and bridge Others Buildings Infra- Structure Hardware

Furniture

Stock of wood, 1000t Stock of cement, 1000t Stock of iron, 1000t

5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 建築物 土木構造物 機械設備 その他 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 （ ） 建築物 土木構造物 機械設備 家具・建具 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 （ ） 建築物 土木構造物 機械設備 家具・建具 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 暦（年） 建築物 鉄道・電力 港湾・漁港 道路・橋脚 その他 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 暦（年） 建築物 鉄道・電力 港湾・漁港 道路・橋脚 その他

Buildings Infra- Structure Hardware

Furniture

Buildings Railway,

Electric Power

Port and harbor Road and bridge Others

Waste wood, 1000t/y Waste cement, 1000t/y Waste iron, 1000t/y

Buildings Infra- Structure Hardware

Furniture

Future direction of AIM, 2006 16

Stock dynamics greatly affects social Stock dynamics greatly affects social energy/material efficiency energy/material efficiency

Physical Physical stock stock Production including Production including reproduction reproduction Decommissioning Decommissioning Inputs of virgin material Inputs of virgin material Recycling Recycling Service Service produced by produced by the stock the stock Increase of service efficiency Increase of service efficiency Saturation of Saturation of service demand service demand

D e c r e a s e

• f

s t

• c

k D e c r e a s e

• f

s t

• c

k d i f f u s i

• n

r a t e d i f f u s i

• n

r a t e

year year Stock, Flows Stock, Flows These factors These factors affect energy affect energy consumption consumption， ， greatly greatly

Future direction of AIM, 2006 17

In order to design pathways which lead us to prescribed world, In order to design pathways which lead us to prescribed world,

The The Backcasting Backcasting Model Model

will be developed will be developed

• Objective of the model is to identify required political intervention and public/private

investment schedule with backcasting from future prescribed world.

• The model is one country multi-sector (＜20 sectors) econometric model coupled with

1) Intervention/investment optimization module, 2) Stock dynamics (infrastructure/buildings/capital) modules 3) Aggregated environmental load emission modules

• And has interfaces for

1) The changing of input-output coefficients by technology development, 2) Final consumption changes projected by the household life-style model

• The model should be well calibrated with historical dynamics, and can differentiate

current trends and required tread breaking intervention.

Future direction of AIM, 2006 18

Accumulation Supply = Demand Import Intermediate Demand Final Demand Export Final Consumption From household Production model Production Capital Formation Stock CO2 Emissions

Intermediate goods

Production Capital Labor Production Function by Industry Labor supply and demand in each period Domestic Production Per Capita Utility in Each Period Total Utility in Each Period Import/Export Balance in Each Period Required Surplus Internationally Relative Price of goods Limit on Growth Rate

• f Export

Limit on growth Rate and Dependency of Import Social/private Infla-structure Formation Accumulation

Emission allowance

Maximization

Framework of the Framework of the “ “backcasting backcasting model model” ”

Future direction of AIM, 2006 19

AIM model family, FY2006 AIM model family, FY2006 – –topdown topdown/CGE /CGE-

Future direction of AIM, 2006 20

Calibration and forecasting using the Calibration and forecasting using the macroeconomic module of the macroeconomic module of the“ “Backcasting Backcasting model model” ”

Japan, 1975-2000 (calibration), 2001-2050 (forecasting)

• 400000
• 200000

200000 400000 600000 800000 1000000 1200000 1400000 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 Y ear B i l l i

• n

1995yen

Im port (M C ) E xport (E X C ) Invent

• ry

i nvest m ent , governm ent (JG ) Invent

• ry

i nvest m ent , pri vat e(JP ) H ousi ng i nvest m ent (IH ) Invet m ent , pri vat e(IP ) Invest m ent , governm ent (IG ) F i nal consum pt i

• n,

governm ent (C G ) F i nal consum pt i

• n,

pri vat e(C P )

S cenari

• A

A ct ual w orki ng hours i s kept t

• year

2000 l evel T F P i ncreases 1. 7% / y S cenari

• B

A ct ual w orki ng hours decreases 0. 7% / y T F P i ncreases 1. 5% / y

2.02%/y GDP increase 1.30%/y GDP increase

• No. of equations: 375 (Statistical: 155, definitional: 220)

Future direction of AIM, 2006 21

Calibration and forecasting using the macroeconomic Calibration and forecasting using the macroeconomic module of the module of the“ “Backcasting Backcasting model model” ”

Japan, 1975-2000 (calibration), 2001-2050 (forecasting)

50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 400000 450000 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 Year F i nal energy (1010kcal )

I ndust ry R esi dent i al C om m erci al P assenger t ransport F rei ght t ransport

100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 700000 1975 1995 2015 2035 Y ear P ri m a ry e ne rg y (1 010kca l ) R enew abl e H ydro N ucl ear G as C oal O i l

Primary energy Final energy

Future direction of AIM, 2006 22

Concerns and Keywords of the Future Society Concerns and Keywords of the Future Society

Besides economic and technology development, the models should explicitly describe the relationships between following social changes and environmental consequences.

• Changes of Demographic structure, family type
• Changes of Income, Consumption propensity, Time use
• Changes of Transportation demand; Urbanization, Modal

share, trip length

• World trade environment
• Developments and saturation of social stocks, such as

infrastructures and capitals and so on

Future direction of AIM, 2006 23

Framework of analyzing low carbon society

Household production Model Final consumption and production of utility Transportation Model Passenger and freight transport Stock Models

CO2 emission Developments, maintenance and saturation

• f stocks

Household type change Time use change Demographic structure change

Population household dynamics model Buildings Social infra- structures Industrial production capitals Emission allowance Energy/CCS industry Model Energy/waste transformation facilities

Modal share/trip length change National/Urban /Rural planning

Freight transportation demand Labor supply and demand Passenger transportation demand Investment supply

Investment demand for sustainable development

Commercial and public service model Industrial Model Production and inter industrial relation

Export/ Import functions

Per capita utility

Final consumption

Operational/Scenario/Uncontrolled but noteworthy parameters

Model Major system variables

Hard link with AIM/Material Hard link with AIM/Material

• r AIM/
• r AIM/Backcasting

Backcasting

Future direction of AIM, 2006 24

Framework of analyzing recycle-

• riented society

Household production Model Final consumption and production of utility Transportation Model Passenger and freight transport Stock Models

Waste generation Developments, maintenance and saturation

• f stocks

Household type change Time use change Demographic structure change

Population household dynamics model Buildings Social infra- structures Industrial production capitals Final disposal target/capacity Environmental industry Model Solid/Water/Air Energy/waste transformation facilities

Modal share/trip length change National/Urban /Rural planning

Freight transportation demand Labor supply and demand Passenger transportation demand Investment supply

Investment demand for sustainable development

Commercial and public service model Industrial Model Production and inter industrial relation

Export/ Import function

Per capita utility

Final consumption

Operational/Scenario/Uncontrolled but noteworthy parameters

Model Major system variables

Future direction of AIM, 2006 25

The 6 steps for the mid-term national IAM development

1. Examine feasibility and suitability of the research from the view points of 1) problem definition (for example, toward low carbon society, material recycled society, coupling of these two, target index of future society, etc.), 2) data availability, 3) human recourses of the research team 2. Become familiar with the component models, collect and organize related information for the analysis 3. Establish/calibrate models thoroughly with the last 20-50 years, and project (forecast) the latest trend with no intervention to the next 50 years

• 4. Using SDB (engineering/institutional innovation

SDB (engineering/institutional innovation’ ’s database), s database), projected socio- economic future calculated by the above models, and a simple and transparent a simple and transparent calculator (such as calculator (such as Menoco Menoco) which connects the both, we can examine relationship among socio-economic transitions and necessary innovations to keep the targets with try and error .

• 5. Aggregate/combine the above calculation processes within a model (i.e. Backcasting

Backcasting model model)

• 6. Using the interactive version of the above tools (models),

the interactive version of the above tools (models), hold a series of PIA (Participatory Integrated Assessment) workshops with stakeholders to support the trend breaking movement.

Future direction of AIM, 2006 26

Modeling Modeling activities in F activities in FY Y2006 2006

From the view point of international and national establishment of environmentally sustainable development in the Asian-Pacific region;

• 1. Focusing on the following three spatial scales and three temporal scale;

1) International/National/Regional, 2) 2020(2030) /2050/after 2100 2. As for national/regional scales, we put focuses on creating; 1) Low carbon society, 2) Eco-efficient society. 3. For mid-term national/regional scale integrated assessment, we use models separately and combining; ・ Energy end-use model, ・ One/Multi-regional CGE/econometric models for macro-economic and industrial dynamics, ・ Demography and household model, ・ Consumption and Lifestyle model, ・ Transport demand dynamics model, ・ Stock and infra-structure model, ・ SDB (Strategic Database). 4. Also, for global long-term integrated assessment, we will keep developing AIM/Enduse[global], AIM/Ecosystem(CGE), AIM/Impact[Process], AIM/Impact[Policy].

Future direction of AIM, 2006 27

Framework of analyzing low carbon society

Household production Model Final consumption and production of utility Transportation Model Passenger and freight transport Stock Models

CO2 emission Developments, maintenance and saturation

• f stocks

Household type change Time use change Demographic structure change

Population household dynamics model Buildings Social infra- structures Industrial production capitals Emission allowance Energy/CCS industry Model Energy/waste transformation facilities

Modal share/trip length change National/Urban /Rural planning

Freight transportation demand Labor supply and demand Passenger transportation demand Investment supply

Investment demand for sustainable development

Commercial and public service model Industrial Model Production and inter industrial relation

Export/ Import function

Per capita utility

Final consumption

Operational/Scenario/Uncontrolled but noteworthy parameters

Model Major system variables

Future direction of AIM, 2006 28

Household production Model Final consumption and production of utility Transportation Model Passenger and freight transport

CO2 emission

Population household dynamics model Energy/CCS industry Model Stock Models Buildings Social infra- structures Industrial production capitals Energy/waste transformation facilities Commercial and public service model Industrial Model Production and inter industrial relation Model Stock Models Buildings Social infra- structures Industrial production capitals Energy/ waste transfor mation facilities Model Outputs of models – targets/goals of environmental control

Energy supply and demand Energy balance table Energy technology bottom up model

Energy supply and demand balance model

Energy technology bottom up model Energy technology bottom up model Energy technology bottom up model Energy technology bottom up model Activity Stock House stock model

Non- residential building stock model Energy storage and transfor- mation Transport Vehicule and infrastructure model

Capital stock

Other infrastructure stock

Economy model Population and Household Population dynamic model Residential energy service model Passenger Trns. model Freight Trns. model Household production model Commercial energy service model Coupling of dynamic econo- metric approach and CGE approach Multi- sectral CGE model Industrial production (IO) model Commercial service production model Dynamic econo- metric model House

• hold

Trans- port- ation Comm- ercial /public sector Industrial sector Energy transformation sector Material balance table

CO2 Emission table

Environ- mental load table ：Transition model ：Snapshot model ：Part of model ：Output of model

Future direction of AIM, 2006 29

：Transition model ：Snapshot model ：Part of model ：Output of model

Models for Models for analyzing one analyzing one country country Sustainable Sustainable Development Development

Outputs of models – targets/goals of environmental control

Energy supply and demand Energy balance table Energy technology bottom up model

Energy supply and demand balance model

Energy technology bottom up model Energy technology bottom up model Energy technology bottom up model Energy technology bottom up model Activity Stock House stock model

Non- residential building stock model Energy storage and transfor- mation Transport Vehicule and infrastructure model

Capital stock

Other infrastructure stock

Economy model Population and Household Population dynamic model Residential energy service model Passenger Trns. model Freight Trns. model Household production model Commercial energy service model Coupling of dynamic econo- metric approach and CGE approach Multi- sectral CGE model Industrial production (IO) model Commercial service production model Dynamic econo- metric model House

• hold

Trans- port- ation Comm- ercial /public sector Industrial sector Energy transformation sector Material balance table

CO2 Emission table

Environ- mental load table