The 19 th AIM International Workshop Closing Speech: AIM Modeling and its Contribution to Climate Policies Mikiko Kainuma National Institute for Environmental Studies http://www ‐ iam.nies.go.jp/aim/ 13 ‐ 14 December 2013
AIM (Asia ‐ Pacific Integrated Model): A model for quantified LCS assessment • AIM is an integrated assessment model to assess mitigation options to reduce GHG emissions and impact/adaptation to avoid severe climate change damages • Developed since 1990 • First set of models focusing on Asia ‐ Pacific region to assess the strategies of low carbon development plan quantitatively 2
Examples of Brochures introducing Asian Low Carbon Scenarios Communication and feedbacks of LCS study to real world 2009/11 2010/11 2007/05 2009/11 2011/03 2009/10 2009/10 Shiga Kyoto Shiga Jilin Iskandar Putrajaya India Japan Japan Japan China Malaysia Malaysia 2010/10 2010/10,2012/10 2009/10,2012/02 2010/02,2012/09 2011/09,2012/11 2013/10 2011/10 Putrajaya Ahmedabad Bhopal Malaysia Thailand Indonesia Vietnam Bangladesh India India 2013/03 2013/10 2013/07 2009/08,2012/11 2012/02 2013/05 2013/05 Malaysia Cyberjaya Iskandar Guangzhou Khon Kaen Korea Cambodia Malaysia Malaysia China Thailand http://2050.nies.go.jp/LCS/ 3
Lock-in high carbon infrastructure inhibits GHG emissions reduction ・ Whatever pathways are followed, GHG emissions need to be reduced close to zero in the long run. ・ The more the delay in timing of actions, the more is the amount of reduction needed. ・ Temperature will increase as long as GHG emissions are positive. ・ GHG emissions need to be below zero to decrease temperature. It takes long time. ・ As climate impacts may be irreversible, recovery may not happen even if GHG emissions are decreased. Increase in radiative forcing （（ W/m ２ ） RCP2.6 RCP4.5 CO 2 Emissions （ GtC) RCP6 RCP8.5 CO 2 emissions pathways in four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) used for IPCC 5 th Assessment Report (left) and their extension through 2300, Extended Concentration Pathway (ECP) (right). （ Source: M. Meinshause, 2011)
Without climate policies, the annual average temperature will increase more than 10 degrees Celsius in some regions in a worst scenario. RCP2.6 The global average surface temperature increase 0.3 ℃ to 1.7 ℃ in 2100 RCP8.5 The global average surface temperature increase 2.6 ℃ to 4.8 ℃ in 2100 and about 8 ℃ by 2300. Average surface temperature change (average between 2081 and 2100) compared to the average temperature between 1986 and 2005. Source: Fig. SPM.7 in Summary for Policy Makers, AR5, IPCC AR5
Unconventional Gas Biomass Unconv. Oil ~900-2900 PgC N . Gas Oil ~430-460 ~300-400 ~190–240 ~180–280 PgC PgC PgC PgC Cumulative Emissions for 2 o C Carbon Storage Potential Stabilzaiton ~400-1500 PgC Gas Hydrates ~300 PgC ~28,000 PgC Coal Historcial ~ 10,000 PgC Emissions ~500 PgC Preidustrial Present Atmosphere Atmosphere ~530 PgC ~800 PgC Source: GEA, 2012 (Nakicenovic, IIASA) 2013 #6 Nakicenovic 14
Additional annual investment to meet 2 ℃ target (base year – 2050) Investment can be recovered by energy saving trillion US$/year 3 Difference comes from the assumption on technologies, energy service demands, energy 2 prices, and so on. Additional investment 1 Energy savings 0 ‐ 1 GEA: The approximately US$ 1.4 trillion energy cost savings per year until 2050 in ‐ 2 avoided heating and cooling energy costs. Their estimated investment cost is 0.38 trillion $ per year. ‐ 3 *a scenario with nuclear and CCS about 0.6% to 3% of current global GDP ** a scenario without nuclear and CCS
Additional investment to meet ２ ℃ target trillion $/year 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 AIM AIM Scenario B * * Scenario A * IEA_ETP2012 Additional investment per year by periods *a scenario with nuclear and CCS ** a scenario without nuclear and CCS
Additional Annual Investment to meet 2 ℃ target billion US$/year billion US$/year 700 700 600 600 500 500 2005 ‐ 2030 400 400 2030 ‐ 2050 300 300 200 200 100 100 0 0 Scenario A (with nuclear and Scenario B (without nuclear CCS) and CCS) Source: Akashi
Reduction potential v.s. additional investment costs in 2030 in high efficient case with short payback period in Japan Additional investment costs (yen/tCO 2 ) Renewables Decrease of illuminance demand (10 years) (*1) High efficient truck High efficient air conditioner (commercial) Transport Improvement of insulation (commercial) (5 years) (*1) PV (residential) Technology improvement of energy intensive industry Commercial Geothermal (3 years) (*1) High efficient motor Common technologies in industry Energy efficient vehicle Residential PV (non residential) (3years) Biomass/waste power generation Wind power generation Industry High efficient appliance (3/10 years) BEMS Small hydro (payback period) *1: industrial plants, buildings (10 years) Improvement of insulation (residential) High efficient hot water supply (residential) High efficient air conditioner (residential) High efficient lighting (residential) High efficient lighting (commercial) HEMS High efficient hot water supply (commercial) Reduction potential (thousand ton CO 2 )
Reduction potential v.s. additional investment costs in 2030 in high efficient case with long payback period in Japan Additional investment costs (yen/tCO 2 ) Renewables (12 years) Decrease of illuminance demand High efficient truck Transport Common technologies in industry (8 years) High efficient air conditioner (commercial) High efficient appliance Commercial High efficient motor Energy efficient vehicle (8 years) (*2) HEMS Improvement of insulation (commercial) Residential PV (residential) BEBS (8years) (*3) High efficient hot water supply (Commercial) High efficient lighting (Residential) Industry High efficient lighting (commercial) (12 ‐ 15 years) Geothermal (payback period) Technology improvement of energy intensive industry *2: residential buildings PV (non residential) (17 years) *3: commercial buildings (15 years) Improvement of insulation (residential) High efficient hot water supply (residential) High efficient air conditioner (residential) Biomass/waste power generation Small hydro Wind power generation Reduction potential (thousand ton CO 2 )
Projects related AIM activities Long ‐ term Vision Policy Implementation EMF30 (bioenergy/land use & non ‐ Kyoto Gases/air pollution) Global ADVANCE (Improved analysis of costs and impacts of mitigation policies) AgMIP (Crop and economic modeling for food security) COBHAM (Consumer behavior, energy and climate change) IMPRESSIONS (High end impact & adaptation scenario) Scale SSP (Socio ‐ economic pathways with mitigation and adaptation) IAMC (Building a community of practice) ERTDF ‐ S10 (Global climate change risk) ERTDF ‐ S12 (Long ‐ lived GHGs and Short ‐ lived climate pollutants) Low Carbon Asia (Scenarios with Action Plans) Country SATREPS, JCM, ・・・ National & Local mitigation analysis DDPP (Post ‐ 2015/National deep decarbonization pathways to 2050) ERTDF ‐ S8 (Impact & Adaptation in Japan) Local Fukushima (Reconstruction ‐ based town planning with social innovation) Climate Change Research Program at NIES 2100 2020 2050 Target Year Networking LCS ‐ RNet (International Research Network for Low Carbon Societies) LoCARNet (Low Carbon Asia Research Network)
Research topics on climate change related AIM activities Coupling models • Model validation and quality assurance • Uncertainty quantification • Regional , country and local action plants/ implementation • Long ‐ term Vision Policy Implementation (Future Earth) (Planetary Boundaries) Cancun Agreements GHG emissions half by 2050 2 o C Target Global Agriculture Land Use Scale Energy Technologies Social Change Lifestyle National GHG reduction potential Co ‐ Benefits Country (Reduction of air pollution, water pollution, etc. ） Local LCS action plan in local level 2100 2020 2050 Target Year
How can we make a transition to a low carbon society? * The low-carbon Asia research Project is supported by the Environmental Research and Technology Development Fund (S-6)
Ten Actions towards Low Carbon Asia are proposed Energy System Action 1 Action 6 Urban Transport Low carbon energy system with Structured Compact City local resources Agriculture & Livestock Action 2 Action 7 Interregional Transport Spread of high yields and low Mainstreaming trains and emission agricultural water transportation technologies Action 3 Action 8 Resources & Materials Forest & Landuse Smart material use that realizes Sustainable forest the full potential of resources management Buildings Technology & Finance Action 4 Action 9 Smart buildings that Technology and finance to utilize natural systems facilitate achievement of LCS Governance Biomass Action 5 Action 10 Transparent and Fair Local production and local Governance that Supports LCS consumption of biomass Asia
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