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Local Air Quality Modeling, AIM/Air
The 9 The 9th
th AIM International Workshop
AIM International Workshop 12 12-
- 14, March 2004, at NIES
Local Air Quality Modeling, AIM/Air th AIM International Workshop - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Local Air Quality Modeling, AIM/Air th AIM International Workshop - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Local Air Quality Modeling, AIM/Air th AIM International Workshop The 9 th AIM International Workshop The 9 12- -14, March 2004, at NIES 14, March 2004, at NIES 12 Graduate School of Global Environmental Studies Graduate School of Global
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Characteristics of AIM/Air
+ Properties of emission, such as amount per year, gas temperature, and gas flow, are definable by each LPS or cell of AS. + Emission profile is definable. Not only change of emission in a day, in a week and in year but also special terms (such as holiday and off-time in equipment maintenance) are considered. + Standard meteorological data (ECMWF） is available. Use of the meteorological data locally measured is effective to increase accuracy of diffusion analysis. + An effective algorithm to reduce computational time is adopted.
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Model Equations
⋅ − ⋅ =
2 2 3
2 exp ) 2 ( ) , , ( α γ π u Q z y x C
p
] 2 2 exp 2 1 1 2 2 exp 2 1 1 [
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
− ⋅ ⋅ + + − ⋅ ⋅ +
+ + + + − − − −
αη η α αη π η αη η α αη π η ux erfc x u ux ux erfc x u ux
+ − + − − − ⋅ =
2 2 2 2 2 2
2 ) ( exp 2 ) ( exp 2 exp 2 ) , , (
z z y z y p
He z He z y u Q z y x C σ σ σ σ πσ ・
Plume model (Wind velocity >= 1 m/s) Puff model (Wind velocity < 1 m/s)
( )
2 2 2 2 2
He z R − + =
−
γ α η
( )
2 2 2 2 2
He z R + + =
+
γ α η
∫
∞
− =
W
dt t W erfc ) exp( 2 ) (
2
π
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AS AS LPS LPS
AIM/Air General Data Flow Diagram
u.air u.air u.air ECMWF local.air Meteorological data Local measurement readGRBX diff.air
Concentration
diffB viewCont
Viewer
(Connect to health impact assessment module) Diffusion calculation emitLPS.air emitAS.air Integration
- f LPS
emission data editAS editLPS Integration
- f AS
emission data stabLPS.air stabAS.air Stability calculation for AS stabAS stabLPS Stability calculation for LPS AGIS.rst AIM/Local convAGIS A-GIS agis.air Emission projection epat.air Emission patterns editEpat
. 2 . 4 . 6 . 8 1 1 . 2 M
- n
T u e W e d T h u F r i S a t S u n
gmap.air Target area editGmap
Grid data by raster format Change in A day, A week, A year, And Special term
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Emission Pattern Editor
Change in a day by hour Change in a year by month Change in a week by what day
. 2 . 4 . 6 . 8 1 1 . 2 M
- n
T u e W e d T h u F r i S a t S u n
Change in Special terms
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AS Emission Editor
1) Load Map Data 3) Set Target Area 2)Load Emission pattern Database 5) (and click) Assign the Emission Pattern To This Cell. 4) (click) Select A Emission Pattern …..
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LPS Emission Editor
1) Load Emission pattern database 2) Load LPS data 3) (click) Select A Emission Pattern ….. 4) (and click) Assign the Emission Pattern To This Cell.
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Application
- AIM/Air was applied to assess health
AIM/Air was applied to assess health impact of SO impact of SO2
2 in Beijing.
in Beijing.
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Air Quality Level in China
The 3rd level： Specified industrial area. Day- averaged SO2 concentration ： 250μg/m3 The 2nd level ： Residential area, the area mixed with commercial, transportation and residential area, cultural area , usual industrial area, and agricultural area Day-averaged SO2 concentration ： 150μg/m3 The 1st level: Nature protection zone, scenic zone. Day-averaged SO2 concentration: 50μg/m3
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In 343 cities researched in China, In 343 cities researched in China, The number of cities where SO2 concentration is above the standard value of the 3rd level air quality： 107 cities(31.2%) Above the 2nd level and below the 3rd level ： 120cities(35.0%) If the 2nd air quality level is achieved 178,000 of death will be avoided (World Bank) Because of drastic development of economics in China to identify the health impact caused by SO2 is significantly important.
Pollution Level of cities in China
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Procedure
E M I S S I O N P R O J E C T I O N Cement Power Generation Public Commerce Transportation Iron & Steel Others
L P S A S
Non-Ferrous Metal Pollutant SO2 T A R G E T P O L L U T A N T
( A I M / L
- c
a l )
M E T E O R O L O G Y D A T A Cloud cover Solar radiation Wind velocity Temperature Geo potential Surface Geo potential Interpolation of meteorology data Calculation of atmospheric stability Calculation of effective stack height D I F F U S I O N C A L C U L A T I O N Diffusion model for AS Diffusion model for LPS
( A I M / A i r )
(0.5°mesh, 6hrs interval) (1km mesh,1hrs interval) Emission patterns A-GIS H E A L T H R I S K A S S E S S M E N T Concentration-Response Function Population map
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Target Area
Beijing(China) Target time extent： Jan 1, ～Dec. 31, 2000 Target pollutant： SO2 1,600km2
1 2 3 4 5 6 T h e T e m p l e
- f
H e a O l y m p i c C e n t e r A g r i c u l t u r a l M u s e u m 観測点 C h e G
- n
g Z h u a n g Q i a n M e n D
- n
g S i 1 6 3 2 4 5
Measurement points
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Emission Source (AIM/Local)
L P S ( L a r g e P
- i
n t S
- u
r c e ) A S ( A r e a S
- u
r c e )
C e m e n t s e c t
- r
S t e e l a n d i r
- n
s e c t
- r
N
- n
- f
e r r
- u
s m e t a l s e c t
- r
P
- w
e r g e n e r a t i
- n
s e c t
- r
C
- m
m e r c e s e c t
- r
T r a n s p
- r
t a t i
- n
s e c t
- r
P u b l i c s e c t
- r
O t h e r s e c t
- r
GDP by secondary industry section in each district Population density in each 30 seconds mesh GDP by third industry section in each district Population density in each 30 seconds mesh. Population density
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Emission pattern (1)
C h a n g e i n d a y C h a n g e i n w e e k Industry and commerce sectors Power generation and public sectors
Industry sector： constant during Mon. to Fri. and zero on Sat. and Sun.
Constant during 9:00～19:00 Zero during 19:00～8:00
. . 2 . 4 . 6 6 1 2 1 8 2 4 時刻 加重
Weight Time
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Emission Pattern (2)
S p e c i a l t e r m s C h a n g e i n y e a r Commerce and public sectors (frequent use of heater)
equipment every from Emission heater from Emission =39%(public sector) =89%(commercial sector)
J a n . F e b . M a r . A p r . M a y J u n . J u l . A u g . S e p . O c t . N
- v
. D e c . . 5 1 . 5 1 . 5 2 . 9 . 7 8 . 7 6 . 5 2 . 5 1 . 9 . 9 . 5 1 . 1 6 9 . 6 6 . 1 1 . 9 . 7 1 . 1 7 8 . 1 2 5 M
- n
t h E m i s s i
- n
r a t e b y s e c t
- r
. 9 . 1 3 . 2 4 3 . 1 2 1 . 5 1 C
- m
m e r c e P u b l i c . 4 4 7
新年 ： J a n . 1 春節 ： F e b . 5 ～7 労働祭： A p r . 2 9 ～M a y 5 国慶祭： S e p . 2 9 ～O c t . 3 .
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Health Impact Assessment
The relationship between SO2 concentration averaged in 48 hrs and daily mortality
( ) ( )
[ ] pop
SO y Mortality Daily ⋅ − ⋅ − ⋅ = 1 exp
2
⊿ β
y0 : rate of death caused by any events except accident β ： SO2 coefficient ⊿ SO2 ： The difference between projected SO2 concentration which is averaged in 48 hrs and the regulation value of the 2nd grade standard. Using the daily mortality how many death can be avoided if the concentration is regulated under the standard value of the 2nd level air quality is calculated.
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Result from diffusion simulation (1)
1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5 S O
2
日平均濃度推計値( μg / m
3
) S O
2
日平均濃度観測値 ( μg / m 3 )
1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 S O
2
日平均濃度推計値( μg / m
3
) S O
2
日平均濃度観測値 ( μg / m
3
)
S u m m e r s e a s
- n
R e l a t i
- n
c
- e
f f i c i e n t0 . 8 9 2
( e n v i r
- n
m e n t a l a n n u a l r e p
- r
t
- f
1 9 9 8 )
Comparison between measurement and computation of day- averaged concentration.
Measurement value Measurement value Computational value
W i n t e r s e a s
- n
R e l a t i
- n
c
- e
f f i c i e n t : . 7 6 9
Computational value
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2 4 6 8 1 1 / 1 3 / 1 5 / 1 7 / 1 9 / 1 1 1 / 1 日付 S O
2
日平均濃度( μg / m 3 )
セメ ント 発電 鉄鋼 非鉄金属 商業 運輸 民生 その他
Result from diffusion simulation (2)
Contribution of the day-averaged SO2 concentration by sector at a cite of high population density
2 n d g r a d e
- f
a i r q u a l i t y 1 5 ( μg / m
3
)
Cement
Power Gen. Iron Steel Non Ferrous Come rce Trans port Public Others
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Result from Diffusion Simulation (3)
Histogram of day-averaged SO2 concentration
4 8 1 2 6 1 2 1 8 2 4 3 3 6 日数 S O
2
日平均濃度( μg / m 3 )
全部門 発電 商業 民生 その他
9 1 d a y s 4 3 d a y s T h e 2
n dl
e v e l 1 5 μg / m
3
T h e 3
r dl
e v e l 2 5 μg / m
3 All sectors Power gen. Commerce Public Others
days
Day-averaged SO2 concentration
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Result from Diffusion Simulation (4)
The number of days which day-averaged SO2 concentration is above the standard value of the 2nd level air quality
Jan. Feb. Mar. Apl. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. 86.09 97.09 99.25 99.84 99.78 99.81 99.75 99.91 99.69 99.75 99.37 99.5 1 8.054 1.88 0.501 0.063 0.157 0.063 0.157 0.031 0.219 0.157 0.439 0.345 2 3.322 0.282 0.094 0 0.031 0 0.031 0.031 0.031 0.031 0.031 3 0.721 0.188 0 0.031 0 0.063 0 0.031 4 0.407 0.157 0 0.031 0.031 0.031 0.031 0.031 5 0.501 0.125 0 0.031 0 0.031 0 0.063 0.031 6 0.094 0.031 0.094 0.031 0 0.031 0 0.031 7 0.094 0.031 0.031 0 0.031 0.031 0.031 8 0.251 0.063 0 0.031 9 0.125 10 0.063 0.031 0 0.031 0 0.031 11 0.031 0 0.031 12 0.063 13 0.031 0.063 0.031 14 0 0.031 15 0.031 0.031 17 0.031 18 0.031 0.031 21 0.031 29 0.031
#
- f
d a y s a b
- v
e s t a n d a r d
Mo n t h
The maximum number of days which is above the 2nd standard is 104 days.
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Result from Impact assessment
J a n . 5 8 7 . 1 4 F e b . 2 2 . 9 M a r . 3 . 5 7 A p r . . 7 2 M a y . 3 9 J u n . . 7 9 J u l . 2 . 2 8 A u g . . 3 1 S e p . 1 . 1 5 O c t . . 8 2 N
- v
. 6 . 6 D e c . 1 . 7 9 1 . 7 7 M
- n
t h T
- t
a l T h e m a x i m u m i n c e l l s . 3 1 . 7 3 . 8 2 6 . 2 . 7 2 . 3 9 . 4 1 1 . 3 8 2 6 . 7 8 1 1 . 1 7 2 . 9
The total number of avoidable death in the target area and the maximum number of the avoidable death in whole cells, by month If SO2 concentration in Beijing is regulated under the standard value of the 2nd grade
- f air quality in China,
the total number of avoidable death in year 2000 is approximately
6 2 6 . 9
Unit： person’s death
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Conclusion
Air quality modeling and simulation tool AIM/Air was
developed.
By using this tool concentration of air pollutant can be
calculated from the information of emission source that is resulted from AIM/Local.
Proposed algorithm for quick calculation and user
interface enables to run diffusion calculation both on PC’s Windows and Linux.
This tool was applied to project air quality of Beijing.
Moreover, daily mortality was assessed.
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