AIR QUALITY IN A CHANGING CLIMATE M. Schaap, C. Hendriks, A. - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Sep 26, 2023 229 likes •566 views

AIR QUALITY IN A CHANGING CLIMATE M. Schaap, C. Hendriks, A. Manders, A. Mues WHY STUDY AIR QUALITY? Adapted from EEA reporting, AIR QUALITY PATHWAYS 3 | Air quality in a changing climate AIR QUALITY IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

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AIR QUALITY IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

  • M. Schaap, C. Hendriks, A. Manders, A. Mues
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Adapted from EEA reporting,

WHY STUDY AIR QUALITY?

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AIR QUALITY PATHWAYS

3 | Air quality in a changing climate

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AIR QUALITY IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

Climate Air Quality at the surface Emissions Meteorology Atmospheric chemistry

(after: Jacob and Winner, 2009)

Δ Δ Δ Δ Δ

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Emissions

(natural + anthropogenic)

Air Quality

Pollutant concentrations

  • Temperature, e.g. biogenic volatile organic compounds ( 10% per °C)
  • Wind, e.g. Dust suspension, Sea salt
  • Soil moisture (natural Emissions)
  • Anthropogenic activities e.g. Heat/cool, renewable/fossil energy

AIR QUALITY

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  • Wind (speed, direction), e.g. Advection
  • Boundary layer parameter (PBL, Stability), e.g. vertical Transport,

Deposition

Air Quality

Pollutant concentrations

Dynamics

(horizontal + vertical Transport)

AIR QUALITY

Emissions

(natural + anthropogenic)

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  • Temperature, e.g. reaction rates, equilibrium semi-volatiles
  • Radiation, e.g. photochemistry (Ozone)
  • Clouds, e.g. Production of sulfate in cloud water

Air Quality

Pollutant concentrations

Chemical Reactions

AIR QUALITY

Dynamics

(horizontal + vertical Transport)

Emissions

(natural + anthropogenic)

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SLIDE 8
  • Dry Deposition: Boundary layer parameter (Turbulence, atmospheric

stability), soil moisture for stomatal conductance

  • Wet Deposition: Precipitation (Intensity, Variability), Cloud parameter

(CLWC, Coverage)

Air Quality

Pollutant concentrations

Deposition

(wet + dry)

AIR QUALITY

Chemical Reaktions Dynamics

(horizontal + vertical Transport)

Emissions

(natural + anthropogenic)

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LOTOS-EUROS – CHEMISTRY TRANSPORT

MODEL OF INTERMEDIATE COMPLEXITY

  • M. Schaap

Fossil Fuel pilot

Meteorological forecast

ECMWF

Emissions

Regional / Local Preprocessing

Transport

Advection Turbulence

Deposition

Wet and Dry

Chemistry

Gas phase Aerosol

Gidded hourly simulated concentrations:

Gases O3 , NO2 , SO2 … Aerosols Sulfate, Nitrate,

  • sec. organic, primary…

Wet, dry deposition fluxes

Explicit CTM Global chemical forcing

climatology / explicit model

Land use

Input data Numerical formulation

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MOVIE OF MODELLED PARTICULATE MATTER

Application of the new UBA-Griddingtool emissions for ammonia

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COMPARISON TO LONG TERM OBSERVATION DATA, E.G DENMARK

12 | Air quality in a changing climate

SO4 TNO3

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CLIMATE SCENARIOS FOR OZONE AND PM10 FOR 2050

  • „Downscaling“ of climate change scenarios of GCMs using the CTM

LOTOS-EUROS and RCM RACMO

  • Comparison of 20 year periods for 1989–2009 and 2041–2060
  • Focus: Ozone und PM10
  • Anthropogenic emissions taken constant for 2005 (MACC 2005)

Zeitraum Randbedingungen (RACMO) Name 1989-2009 ERA-interim RACMO_ERA 1970-2060 ECHAM5 A1B RACMO_ECHAM 1970-2060 MIROC A1B RACMO_MIROC Horizontal resolution 0.5°x0.25°

Manders et al., 2012 (Atmos. Chem. Phys.)

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“ECHAM” Boundary conditions “MIROC” Boundary conditions

ΔO3 (μg/m3)

  • Increase of the average daily maximum ozone (Sommer) of 5–10 μg/m3 in parts
  • f central and southern Europe
  • Low increase in northern and eastern Europe
  • The differences indicate high uncertainties between models but the direction is

consistent

CHANGE IN AVERAGE DAILY MAXIMUM OZONE IN SUMMER AT CONSTANT EMISSIONS

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PM IS A CHALLENGE

16 | Air quality in a changing climate

Summer 2003 PM10 concentration change (µg/m3)

Bias between ERA-interim and ECHAM current climate Climate change induced difference using ECHAM boundary conditions Mues et al., 2012 (Atmos. Environ.)

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BUT EMISSIONS WILL NOT BE CONSTANT…

17 | Air quality in a changing climate

What will be the combined impact of:

  • An increase of bioenergy plantations
  • EU’s air quality policy
  • Climate change
  • n health damage from ground based ozone?
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SCENARIO STUDY APPROACH

PRIMES energy scenarios for Europe

  • Current legislation (CLE)
  • Decarbonization scenario + efficiency measures

GAINS Anthropogenic emissions GLOBIOM Land use change LOTOS-EUROS Ground level ozone

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0,00 0,20 0,40 0,60 0,80 1,00 Methane Non-methane VOC Nitrogen Oxides

relative to 2010

Anthropogenic emissions EU 28

2010 2030 CLE 2030 Decarbonisation 2050 CLE 2050 Decarbonisation

ANTHROPOGENIC EMISSION CHANGE

In cooperation with IIASA

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LAND USE AND ISOPRENE EMISSION CHANGE

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

2030 2050 2030 2050

1000 km2

Land use change from 2010 EU28

CLE Decarb

plantation forest

0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 3 3,5 2010 CLE 2030 decarb 2030 CLE 2050 decarb 2050 1000 kton

Isoprene emissions Apr-Sept EU28

future climate current climate

In cooperation with IIASA

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2010 2050 decarbonisation current climate 2050 decarbonisation future climate

GROUND LEVEL OZONE CONCENTRATION

[µg/m3]

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2010 2050 decarbonisation current climate 2050 decarbonisation future climate

RELATIVE RISK, ALL CAUSE MORTALITY [%]

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DECOMPOSITION: WHAT DETERMINES EFFECT?

0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1 1,2 NLD SWE POL ITA

Relative risk [% extra mortality]

Relative risk ozone pollution 2010

  • nly land use change
  • nly anthropogenic

2050 decarbonization

Impact land use change Impact emission change Total change

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CONCLUSIONS

Damage to health from ozone pollution is likely to decrease in 2030 / 2050 if climate remains as today The difference between the energy pathways is small Impact of anthropogenic emission change far outweighs impact of land use change Climate change may be a more important driver of ozone concentrations than the change in anthropogenic emissions and land use change unless very strong emission reductions are achieved

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DO CURRENT SOURCE RECEPTOR MATRICES HOLD FOR LARGE SCALE IMPLEMENTATION OF RENEWABLES?

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SCENARIOS

27 | Air quality in a changing climate

Define scenarios with different contribution of solar (PV) and wind

500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 2500000 3000000 3500000 4000000 Current situation Renewable (50-50) Renewable (high solar) Renewable (high wind) Scenario Electricity used (GWh) Fossil Renewables Others

4% 25% 25% 18% Major assumptions:

  • 1. No exchange between

countries

  • 2. No storage of electricity

Under these assumptions, solar (PV) capacity is not sufficient to supply the necessary electricity at the requested time

  • M. Schaap

Fossil Fuel pilot

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Assessment of technology impact in energy supply systems

Power demand

Conventional power plants Nuclear, coal CCGT, gas Storage Pumped hydro

Compressed Air Energy Storage

Hydrogen Demand Side Management Industry & households (ongoing research)

Electric vehicles Heat demand

DC - Transmission Overhead lines or earth cables AC - Transmission Simplified representation of the current high voltage grid

x

BEV/EREV: different charging strategies, V2G. Battery capacity of the vehicle fleet in temporal resolution. FCEV: flexible on-site H2-generation

  • Flex. CHP-operation:
  • heat storage
  • Peak load boilers

Renewable power generation potentials

Optimisation module REMix

Least-cost power supply, spatially and temporally explicit

  • Mo. 30.10
  • Di. 31.10
  • Mi. 1.11
  • Do. 2.11
  • Fr. 3.11
  • Sa. 4.11
  • So. 5.11

Model Results: Strategies for power generation & storage

DLR

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ELECTRICITY DEMAND TURKEY – JANUARY - CURRENT

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 1 23 45 67 89 111 133 155 177 199 221 243 265 287 309 331 353 375 397 419 441 463 485 507 529 551 573 595 617 639 661 683 705 727 Electricity generated (GWh) Hour number (1-744)

Electricity distribution; month 1; country tur; scenario: Current situation

Others Renewables Fossil

  • M. Schaap

Fossil Fuel pilot

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ELECTRICITY DEMAND TURKEY – JANUARY – HIGH WIND

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 1 23 45 67 89 111 133 155 177 199 221 243 265 287 309 331 353 375 397 419 441 463 485 507 529 551 573 595 617 639 661 683 705 727 Electricity generated (GWh) Hour number (1-744)

Electricity distribution; month 1; country tur; scenario: 30% renewables, high wind

Others Renewables Fossil

  • M. Schaap

Fossil Fuel pilot

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Impact on sulphate concentrations – CZE and DEU

Concentration per unit emission

Base same timing 50-50 High wind

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WE SEE THE SAME FOR OTHER POLLUTANTS, E.G. NO2, PM10

  • M. Schaap

Fossil Fuel pilot

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CONCLUSIONS

The impact of changing emission variability for renewable energies may be significant during the transition phase to a society based on renewable energy resources. In general, the meteorological and climate impact on anthropogenic emissions is largely neglected in current modelling approaches and needs to be accounted for,

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THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION

Take a look: TIME.TNO.NL

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5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 1000 Tonnen

Offene Verbrennung von Biomasse Abfallwirtschaft Maschinen Verkehr Industrie Haushalte - Őfen Stromerzeugung

RUßQUELLEN IN DEUTSCHLAND

IIASA Prognose für die europäische Kommission (TSAP)

(Courtesy of M. Amann)

  • ffene Verbrennung

Abfallwirtschaft Maschinen Verkehr Industrie Haushalte (Feuerungsanlagen) Stromerzeugung