Future Direction of Future Direction of AIM AIM Mikiko Kainuma - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Future Direction of Future Direction of AIM AIM Mikiko Kainuma - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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th AIM International Workshop The 11 th AIM International Workshop The 11 19- -21 February 2006 21 February 2006 19 NIES, Tsukuba, Japan NIES, Tsukuba, Japan Future Direction of Future Direction of AIM AIM Mikiko Kainuma Mikiko Kainuma

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The 11 The 11th

th AIM International Workshop

AIM International Workshop 19 19-

  • 21 February 2006

21 February 2006 NIES, Tsukuba, Japan NIES, Tsukuba, Japan

Future Direction of Future Direction of AIM AIM

Mikiko Kainuma Mikiko Kainuma

National Institute for Environmental Studies National Institute for Environmental Studies

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Assessment of Climate Policies toward Low Carbon Society

Sub-theme 2 International Framework

  • n Climate Change

Sub-theme 1 Visions for Low Carbon Society Visions for Low Carbon Society Sub-theme 3 Model Development Model Development Policy Assessment Policy Assessment Quantification of the effects of international frameworks International Framework Low carbon society in long-term context Long-term socio-economic scenarios Medium-long term target International framework Analysis of climate policies Monitoring Climate & Impact Modeling

←Inventory data Global satellite data→ ←Sink, biomass resources ←Probabilistic climate projection S

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i

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i c s c e n a r i

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Model support for quantification I n t e r n a t i

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a l F r a m e w

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←climate change impacts

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Sub Sub-

  • theme 1: Visions for Low Carbon

theme 1: Visions for Low Carbon Society Society Goal: Development of scenarios for Goal: Development of scenarios for Low Carbon Society through Low Carbon Society through sustainable development sustainable development

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Sub-theme 1 Visions for Low Carbon Society

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  • Japanese scenarios towards low carbon society

Projection with consistency based on several dynamics such as macro-economic balance, industrial structure, household, consumption, lifestyle, transport demand, physical stock and Infra-structure

  • Low carbon society in Asia regions

Scenarios of China, India, Korea, Thailand, Indonesia, Viet Num, etc.

  • Global stabilization

Scenarios for low carbon society in world region.

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Scenario Development Processes

Transition Model Snap shot model

Population dynamic model (cohort model including birth/death, inter-regional/national migration) Technology development schedule for energy use, production, and consumption (R&D plan, expert judgment)

Archive data set of Socio-economic change Archive data set of Technology development and diffusion

Socio-economic scenario, Intervention scenario

Macro-economic model (econometric model for parameter estimate of supply-side potential productivity change, IS balance and calculation of BAU scenario) Infrastructure/building dynamic model (econometric/engineering bottom-up approach for residential/nonresidential housing, construction and retirement of energy supply facilities)

Archive data set of Energy Balance, Environmental Burden, and Cost

Scenario, Storyline

Passenger/Freight Transportation demand model (parameter estimate of trip generation, modal share using statistics on person trip, traffic flow, freight flow and others. Service demand estimation assuming technology and behavior change) Energy supply and demand balance model (adjusting seasonal/daily energy balance of electricity, heat, and hydrogen supply and demand considering infrastructure development) Household production/Lifestyle model (identify effects of consumer behavior considering change of age/type of household/ environment-oriented preferences on energy service demand, transportation trip demand by econometric methods and estimate impacts of intervention scenarios) Energy technology bottom-up model (technology selection of energy supply, conversion, consumption using econometric/engineering/management methods) General equilibrium model (investigate feasibility, economic impacts considering general equilibrium of approx. 40 services including energy at service and labor market with support

  • f other models)

5 Trajectory

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Back-cast ing f rom f ut ure t arget world by t he macro- economy and indust ry st ruct ure dynamics model

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2020 2050 2000

Long-term target year

Release of AI M result

Technology development , socio-economic change proj ect ed by hist orically calibrat ed mult i-sect or economet ric model

Forecasting Back-casting Normative target world Ref erence f uture world

Service demand change by changing social behavior, lif est yles and inst it ut ions Mit igat ion Technology development

Required Policy intervention and I nvestment

Calculat ion of required int ervent ion policy and int ervent ion by dynamic

  • pt imizat ion mult i-sect or

model

Environment al pressure

Checking year(2015) Checking year(2025)

Required intervention

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Main elements to decide development path and GHG emissions in Japan

International cooperation Economic growth (BRICs and others) low birthrate and longevity Competition or slow life Immigration /migration Industrial structure Centralization /decentralization Big government /small government Innovation on ICT Technology RD&D Consumption preferences Energy supply system Financial market Urban system Industrial structure Transportation system ICT International trade mechanism Innovative technologies Urban living /rural living

International cooperation international division of labor

National strategy Taxation

Important elements to design low carbon society (LCS) International Domestic Other important elements to decide development path and GHG emissions Burden sharing for Japan and others

Why we need scenarios?

Decide possible combination Given condition for LCS studies Investigate the direction of LCS development

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Application to India

Technologies in Scenarios: Short Technologies in Scenarios: Short-

  • term

term

IA1 IA1T IB2 IB1 IA2

Million Ton of CO2 Emissions 800 1600 2400 3200 2000 2010 2020 2030 800 1600 2400 3200 2000 2010 2020 2030

Frozen Technology

Road infrastructures, Energy markets Ultra-critical boilers, IGCC Building insulations, Appliance standards Gasoline hybrid vehicle, Bio-ethanol Energy efficiency, Environment markets Nuclear Fission, Information highways Fuel cell vehicle: H2 from natural gas Bikeway, Advanced car sharing system Renewable energy technologies Urban planning, Public transport Virtual communication system Waste recycling and reuse Conventional Technology Paths

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U S C a n a d a U K F ra n c e C h in a In d ia W o rld 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 CO2 per capita emissions (t-C/cap) G e rm a n y M E T I, Ja p a n 2 0 3 0 sc e n a rio

Current per capita CO2 emissions and Target

Target for Low Carbon Economy

IB1 IA2

Japan 2050 scenario

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n a l y s i s S p e c i f i c S c e n a r i

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n a l y s i s

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Sub Sub-

  • theme 2: Analysis on International Negotiation Process and Inter

theme 2: Analysis on International Negotiation Process and International Framework national Framework

  • n Climate Change
  • n Climate Change Goal: To make a proposal on a process to achieve an internationa

Goal: To make a proposal on a process to achieve an international l agreement on climate change mitigation for years beyond 2012 agreement on climate change mitigation for years beyond 2012

2006 2006 2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 Kyoto Protocol’s First Commitment Period

International Politics

Negotiation and dialogue for beyond 2012 Informal dialogue on beyond 2012 Improvement of Kyoto Protocol A Framework beyond 2012

・ Comments from key countries, especially those in the Asia- Pacific region ・ Assessments on international process to start a negotiation on a framework on beyond 2012 A interim summary: a proposal for beyond 2012 ・ Analysis on current Kyoto Framework and mechanisms under Kyoto, such as international emissions trading and CDM ・ Domestic climate policy of key countries ・ Assessment

  • f the existing

mechanisms, and proposals for any new mechanisms if necessary Research Agenda Final goal: a proposal for beyond 2012 10

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Sub Sub-

  • theme 3: Cost

theme 3: Cost-

  • effect analysis of climate change

effect analysis of climate change policies policies Goal: Model development and application to assess Goal: Model development and application to assess climate change policies climate change policies

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Sub-theme 3 Cost-effect analysis of climate change policies

1) Model development to support Japanese climate policies toward 2013 and beyond 2) Model development in Asia countries and application through sustainable development analysis

  • f

Millennium Development Goals and portfolio of adaptation and mitigation policies 3) Global model development to support international climate policies including emissions trading 4) Capacity building and model dissemination

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Development of country model Development of country model

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Global model link to global model

AIM/Country

Water model Agriculture model Landuse model Solid waste model Energy model Resource model Environmental policy assessment model Air pollution model Other models End-use model potential production model CGE model Element of environment model Environmental policy assessment model Existing examples (improved in this project)

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Development of global model Development of global model

： Global enduse model China model India model ○○ model Korea model Japan model

Linkage between global model and country model

Water model Agriculture model Landuse model Solid waste model Energy model Resource model Environmental policy assessment model Air pollution model Other models

Thailand model Global water resource model Global environmental policy assessment model Global agricultural productivity model

Linkage among global models Element of environment model

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Region Region-

  • wise reduction potential in 2020

wise reduction potential in 2020

elaboration and expansion up to 2030

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

Japan China India Indonesia Korea Thailand Other South-east Asia Other South Asia Middle East Australia New Zealand Canada USA EU-15 in Western Europe EU-10 in Eastern Europe Russia Argentine Brazil Other Latin America Africa Rest of the World

Reduction Potential (Mt-CO2) US$ 100-300/t-CO2 US$ 0-100/t-CO2 < US$ 0/t-CO2

Discount rate = 5%

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Images of results

Economy oriented Harmonization of economy and environment Regionalism Globalism A2 B1 B2 population Economy Technology Energy Agriculture (Land use) Driving forces A1

二酸化炭素排出量 1 2 1 9 9 2 1 2 3 2 5 2 7 2 9 西暦（ 年）

（ 1 9 9 年の値を1 と し た指数）

3 4 5

A 2 B 1 B 2 A 1 B A 1 C A 1 T

Trend of CO2 emissions (1990=1) Millennium Development Goals Domestic environment policy and economic development Stabilizing GHG concentration IPCC/SRES 4 scenarios 2100 - 2 1

  • 2

3

2 4 6 8 1 1 2

1 9 9 72 0 2 32 62 9 2 1 22 1 5

飢餓人口（ 世界 1 万人） B 2 A 2 B 2 + 経済援助 目標

Number of people suffering from hunger (mil. peoples)

2 4 6 8 1 1 2

1 9 9 72 02 32 62 92 1 22 1 5

貧困人口（ 世界 1 万人） B 2 A 2 B 2 + 経済援助 目標

Number of poverty people (mil. peoples)

million peoples million peoples Target Target B2 A2 B2+Economic support B2 A2 B2+Economic support

Consistency among climate policy,

  • ther environmental

problems and economic development

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Appreciate your participation!

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