Recent Development of Recent Development of AIM Models and - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Recent Development of Recent Development of AIM Models and Activities AIM Models and Activities

National Institute for Environmental Studies National Institute for Environmental Studies

Mikiko Kainuma Mikiko Kainuma

The 1 The 11 1th

th AIM International Workshop

AIM International Workshop 19 19-

• 21 February 2006

21 February 2006 NIES, Tsukuba, Japan NIES, Tsukuba, Japan

AIM AIM/MATERI /MATERIAL AIM AIM/ECOSYSTEM /ECOSYSTEM AIM/LAND AIM/LAND AIM/WA AIM/WATER TER AIM/AGRI AIM/AGRI AIM/VEG AIM/VEG AIM/HEALTH AIM/HEALTH Etc. Etc. AIM AIM/IMPA /IMPACT CT Gl Global ve version Country Country version version AI AIM/TOPD M/TOPDOW OWN AIM AIM/CGE CGE/GLOBAL /GLOBAL AIM AIM/CGE CGE/ASIA ASIA AIM AIM/LOCAL /LOCAL ALICE ALICE AIM-CMB AIM-CMB AIM-SUBsidy AIM-SUBsidy

AIM-CO AIM-COUNTRY TRY mode models ls AIM AIM/CGE/ CGE/ ECOSY ECOSYSTEM STEM

AI AIM n next genera rati tion m model del

AIM/Inventory Activity House Househol

• ld

d pr prod

• duct

uctio n n ap approach

• ach

Bottom- Bottom-up app p approa

• ach

ch of disagg disaggregated environme regated environmental tal tech technolo nologies gies

AIM AIM/Dat atabase base AIM AIM/Database base AIM AIM/TREND TREND AIM AIM/Emission Emission AIM AIM/Im Impact pact AIM AIM/ENDUSE /ENDUSE AIM AIM/CLIMATE /CLIMATE

At Atmos mospher heric mod c model UD UD Ocea Ocean n model model Radiativ Radiative forcing forcing mod model GCM GCM,RegCM RegCM interface nterface

Roadmap of the AIM family

AIM model family

AIM/Ecosystem

[country]

Bottomup, enduse, SDB approach Global National CGE approach AIM/Ecosystem

[global]

Bottomup/accounting models AIM/Material AIM/Topdown AIM/enduse models (Energy, Materials)

Enduse/SDB type modules Energy end-use Renewable energy Waste treatment/disposal Resource recycling

AIM/Policy… Simplified model for Long-

term assessment of climate change

Process/SDB type modules Land-use, Population-urbanization

Forestry, Agriculture

Water Resource and Infrastructures Air Load/emission

Demography and Household dynamics Consumption and Lifestyle dynamics Transport demand dynamics Macro-economic balance and Industrial structure dynamics Physical stock and Infra- structure dynamics New model members for scenario analysis

AIM: Asia-Pacific Integrated Model

Outline of AIM model presentation at the workshop

• Impact modeling [Session II & III]
• Emission inventory and modeling [Session IV, V &

VII]

• AIM/Enduse[Global] [Session VI]
• APEIS project [Session VIII & IX]
• Low carbon society project [Session X & XI]
• Future direction [Session XII & XIII]

Development of AIM Model Development of AIM Model

Model development Model development

– Country models & global model – Climate policy & other environmental policies

Model applications Model applications

– EMF: BC, land use, ... – IPCC: database, new scenario ➜ Morita memorial – IMCP: technology – UNEP/GEO4: sustainable development – Others: GHG stabilization and burden sharing, marginal abatement cost, carbon tax in Japan, ...

（１）Comprehensive assessment of climate change impact for discussing long-term stabilization target （２）Impact assessment considering effects of extreme climate events

• SRES

SRES-

• B2: Business as usual

B2: Business as usual ▲ ▲ GHG GHG-

• 500ppmv: 500ppmv cap on total GHG concentrations

500ppmv: 500ppmv cap on total GHG concentrations ▲ ▲ GHG GHG-

• 600ppmv: 600ppmv cap on total GHG concentrations

600ppmv: 600ppmv cap on total GHG concentrations

To achieve around 2℃ temperature increase in 2100, 550ppmv cap on total

GHG constraint is needed

• 30
• 25
• 20
• 15
• 10
• 5

• 30
• 25
• 20
• 15
• 10
• 5

CO2排出経路 気温変化 大気中CO2濃度 海面上昇 コムギ生産性変化 イネ生産性変化 インド インド

Optimal emission path for achieving 2 degC target and consequent temperature change, SLR and crop impacts.

Improvement of impact model Application to the discussion of post-2012 framework

Climate change impact on crop productivity using daily climate scenario with high spatial resolution.

（３）Impact assessment considering interaction between climate change,

• ther environmental problems, and development target.

Development of AIM/Ecosystem (Project S-3-2 and S-4) (Project B-52) (Project B-12)

Three main research activities of AIM impact study

Global Enduse & Inventory

Regional scale: 21 Global regions 21 Global regions (however, improve data as detail as possible in a nation (however, improve data as detail as possible in a national level) al level) Temporal scale: 2000 2000 – – 2020 2020 ( plan to extend ( plan to extend upto upto 2050 ) 2050 ) Gas classifications: CO CO2

2, CH

, CH4

4, N

, N2

2O, CFC, HCFC, HFC, PFC, SF

O, CFC, HCFC, HFC, PFC, SF6

6

(plan to include SO (plan to include SO2

2,

, NOx NOx, PM, BC/OC) , PM, BC/OC) Sector classifications: Energy industry, Industry, Transport, Energy industry, Industry, Transport, Residential, Commercial, Agriculture, F Residential, Commercial, Agriculture, F-

• gas emission

gas emission

Development of Global Development of Global Enduse Enduse model model

1) Development of 1) Development of emission factor data of Black Carbon emission factor data of Black Carbon and and its emission inventory in 2000 in Asia regions its emission inventory in 2000 in Asia regions 2) Development of 2) Development of emission inventory in 2000 in China, India, emission inventory in 2000 in China, India, Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia 3) Development of 3) Development of emission inventory in 2000 in Asia regions emission inventory in 2000 in Asia regions and and geographical geographical informatization informatization

Development of Emission Inventory Development of Emission Inventory

Activities in APEIS Activities in APEIS

(Session VIII & IX) (Session VIII & IX)

SDB (Strategic DataBase)

AIM/APEIS Training Workshop (November, 2005)

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2000 2015 2025 2000 2015 2025 Conventional Advanced Technologies Technologies 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

Household connection Public standpoint Well/Pond/Borehole Rainwater Sewer connection Septic tank VIP/Simple pit latrine Diarreha

Annual cost (Bil.$/year) Relative risk of diarrhea mortality 50 100 150 200 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Year Water supply by household connection (million m3/yr)

5 10 15 20 2000 2015 2025 Annual cost for HC (billion$/yr)

Management options can reduce leakage

• f water supply,

and reduce the cost. Manage- ment

• ptions

Manage- ment

• ptions

Assessment of Safe Water/Sanitation Technologies and Management Options

• India’s case using SDB -

Design environmental innovation strategies Collect & process data of environmental

• ptions

Develop quantitative scenario of future drivers and countermeasure Combine data cards Simulate effect of environmental innovation strategies Assess environmental innovation strategies Data collection Structure Design Quantitative Analysis

CGE model application

Back-casting from future target world by the macro- economy and industry structure dynamics model

2020 2050 2000

Long-term target year

Release of AIM result

Technology development, socio-economic change projected by historically calibrated multi-sector econometric model

Forecasting Back-casting Normative target world Reference future world

Service demand change by changing social behavior, lifestyles and institutions Mitigation Technology development

Required Policy intervention and Investment

Calculation of required intervention policy and intervention by dynamic

• ptimization multi-sector

model

Environmental pressure

Checking year(2015) Checking year(2025)

Required intervention

Research project on Japan Low-carbon society scenario

U S C a n a d a U K F ra n c e C h in a In d ia W o rld 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 CO2 per capita emissions (t-C/cap) G e rm a n y M E T I, Ja p a n 2 0 3 0 sc e n a rio

Current per capita CO2 emissions and Target

Target for Low Carbon Economy

IB1 IA2

Japan 2050 scenario

NIES COP11 and COP/MOP1 side event, Montreal, Dec.3, 2005

Global Challenges Toward Global Challenges Toward Low Low-

• Carbon Economy (LCE)

Carbon Economy (LCE)

• Focus on Country

Focus on Country-

• Specific Scenario Analysis

Specific Scenario Analysis-

International Cooperation

◆ EMF 22 (Energy Modeling Forum)

kt-BC/(0.5Degree)2

BC BC Emission Emission Distribution Distribution in China in China

Preliminary Analysis on BC/OC Model using AIM

258 195 183 117 50 100 150 200 250 300 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Emission (2000=100) CO2 - Market CO2 - Intervention BC - Market BC - Intervention 0.5Yuan/kg-CO2 0.5Yuan/kg-CO2

Emission profile in China Emission profile in China

Carbon Tax Co-benefit of Carbon Tax

Emissions Scenarios Database for the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report

Geographical coverage Data source Scenarios Multiregional global scenario 47 236 60 18 104 Single global scenario 13 Single & multinational regional scenario 4 National scenario 25 Scenarios of interest: New mitigation scenarios since TAR New mitigation scenarios since TAR Regional scale: Global, regional and national level analysis Global, regional and national level analysis Temporal scale: Scenarios with horizons beyond 2030 Scenarios with horizons beyond 2030 Gas classifications: all anthropogenic all anthropogenic GHGs GHGs CO2, CH4, N2O, CFCs, HCFCs, HFCs, PFCs, SF6, CO, NMVOC, SOx, NOx and Black Carbon etc Sector classifications: Multi Multi-

• sector scenarios

sector scenarios “ “Greenhouse Gas Emissions Scenarios Database and Regional Greenhouse Gas Emissions Scenarios Database and Regional Mitigation Analysis Mitigation Analysis” ”, , CGER Research Report CGER Research Report ( (CGER

CGER-

• D038

D038-

• 2006

2006), NIES

), NIES

International Cooperation

◆ IMCP (Innovation Modeling Comparison Program)

Steering Committee :Imperial College in Cambridge Univ., Tyndall Center in Cambridge Univ., Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), German Institute of Economic Research (DIW) Project period: 2004 (?) ~ Target regions: Global level analysis Temporal scale: 2000 - 2100 Program: Mitigation scenarios of 550, 500, 450 CO2 Mitigation scenarios of 550, 500, 450 CO2-

• only
• nly ppmv

ppmv, , Comparison of with and without induced technology changes Comparison of with and without induced technology changes, , 4 Key concerns (investment pathway, policy instruments, 4 Key concerns (investment pathway, policy instruments, international spillovers, impact of uncert international spillovers, impact of uncertainty) ainty) Output: Energy Journal Special Issue Energy Journal Special Issue Models: WIAGEM, AIM, DEMETER-ICCS, MERGE-ETL, MIND, DNE21+, GET-LEF, MESSAGE-MACRO, E3MG, IMACLIM-R, FEEM-RICE, ENTICE, IMAGE/TIMER

International Cooperation

◆ SEF-II (National Performance Assessment and Strategic

Environment Framework for Greater Mekong Sub-region) Steering Committee: ADB / UNEP RRC.AP Project period: 2003 FEB ~ 2006 MAR Target regions: 6 Greater Mekong Sub-regions (GMS) Program: 13 13 env

• env. issues with

. issues with Pressure Pressure-

• State

State-

• Response method

Response method Output: Environmental Performance Assessment reports Environmental Performance Assessment reports

◆ CASCADE-MINTS-II (Case study Comparisons And Develop-

ment of Energy Models for Integrated Technology Systems) Steering Committee : ECN / National Technical University of Athens Project period: 2004 FEB ~ Target regions: Europe Program: 5 packages 5 packages (Baseline, Baseline, Renewables Renewables, Nuclear, CCS, , Nuclear, CCS, Trade Trade-

• offs
• ffs)

Output: A comparison analysis report in each work A comparison analysis report in each work-

• package

package Models: MARKAL Western Europe, PRIMES, Prometheus, NEMESIS, POLES,

TIMES-EE, PACE, NEWAGE-W, MESSAGE, GMM, DNE21+, AIM

Thank you for your contribution!