Recent Development of Recent Development of AIM Models AIM Models - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

SLIDE 1

Recent Development of Recent Development of AIM Models AIM Models

National Institute for Environmental Studies National Institute for Environmental Studies

Mikiko Kainuma Mikiko Kainuma

The 8 The 8th

th AIM International Workshop

AIM International Workshop 13 13-

• 15 March 2003

15 March 2003 NIES, Tsukuba, Japan NIES, Tsukuba, Japan

SLIDE 2

Publication Publication

Changes in potential productivity of rice

• 500 0 +500 (kg/ha)

Transport Agriculture Industry Commerce Rural U r b a n

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Average cost for CO2 reduction, yuan/t-C Rate of accumulated CO2 reduction (%)

AIM/Emission AIM/Database

(Chap. 14)

GDP loss due to CO2 and solid waste constraints without countermeasures Mitigation from environmental investment Mitigation from technological improvement Mitigation from taxation policy Mitigation from green consumption GDP loss after mitigation GDP loss from reference case (Trillion yen at 1995 prices)

1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0

2010 2007 Year Mitigation of GDP loss Without Counter Measures

Global CO2 emissions and reduction for stabilization Recycling Society 10 20 30 40 10 20 30 40 Fossil Intensive Society 550 ppm 750 ppm 2000 2050 2100 2000 2050 2100 2000 2050 2100 2000 2050 2100 10 20 30 40 10 20 30 40

Gt-C GDP change by the Kyoto with and without USA

• 0.6
• 0.5
• 0.4
• 0.3
• 0.2
• 0.1

0.1 Japan USA EU FSU GDP change (%)

Rate of accumulated CO2 reduction (%)

2

2030

Mt-CO2 5 10 20 40 <3 >21 CO2

• 500 0 +500 (kg/ha)

CO2 emission per capita (t-C/capita)

AIM/Country AIM/Global

AIM/CGE-Linkage AIM/Ecosystem

AIM/Local

Inventory activity

Change in potential productivity of rice CO2 emission in 2030 GDP loss from reference case (Trillion yen at 1995 prices)

AIM family

(Chap. 1)

1995 2005 2015 2025 2032 Cambodia Bhutan Laos Solomon Islands Kiribati Bangladesh Vanuatu Papua New Guinea Pakistan Nepal Myanmar Vietnam Sri Lanka Maldives Samoa Indonesia Tajikistan Philippines India Fiji Kyrgyz Republic French Polynesia Tonga China Thailand Iran New Zealand Uzbekistan Mongolia Malaysia Japan Turkmenistan Nauru Taiwan Australia Korea, Dem Korea, Rep Kazakhstan Palau Singapore Brunei 2 4 6 8 10 12 Year

AIM/Trend

(Chap. 13)

GDP change by the Kyoto with USA and without USA

AIM/Climate

Atmospheric model UD Ocean model Radiative forcing model GCM,RegCM interface

AIM/CGE (Energy)

(Chap. 4)

AIM/Impact

AIM/Land AIM/Water AIM/Agriculture AIM/Vegetation AIM/Health etc. (Chap. 3, 12)

AIM/Material

(Chap. 11)

AIM/Emission-Linkage

AIM/Bottom-up AIM/Energy-Economics AIM/Land-Equilibrium (Chap. 2)

AIM/Enduse

(Chap. 5 – 10)

SLIDE 3

Without Counter Measures

Global CO2 emissions and reduction for stabilization Recycling Society 10 20 30 40 10 20 30 40 Fossil Intensive Society 550 ppm 750 ppm 2000 2050 2100 2000 2050 2100 2000 2050 2100 2000 2050 2100 10 20 30 40 10 20 30 40

Gt-C

AIM/Emission-Linkage AIM/Bottom-up, AIM/Energy-Economics, AIM/Land-Equilibrium

SLIDE 4

GDP change by the Kyoto with and without USA

• 0.6
• 0.5
• 0.4
• 0.3
• 0.2
• 0.1

0.1 Japan USA EU FSU GDP change (%)

R e f e r e n c e W R E 5 5 W G I 5 5 M I D 5 5

• 100
• 90
• 80
• 70
• 60
• 50
• 40
• 30
• 20
• 10

Change of productivity (%)

S c e n a r i

• Myanmar

Cambodia Malaysia Philippines Thailand Lao PDR Bangladesh Nepal Viet Nam Sri Lanka India Indonesia Bhutan Taiwan Korea DPR China Korea Republic Japan

Change in winter wheat productivity from 1990 to 2100

AIM/CGE (Energy)

SLIDE 5

Changes in potential productivity of rice

• 500 0 +500 (kg/ha)

AIM/Climate Atmospheric model, UD Ocean model Radiative forcing model, GCM-RegCM interface

SLIDE 6

. 1 . 2 . 3 . 4 . 5 . 6 . 7 . 8 . 9 . 1 . 1 1 . 1 2 . 1 3 . 1 4 . 1 5 . > = 1 6 .

CO2 emission intensity for 2010 in China

2030

5 10 15 20 40 15 - 18 18 - 21 > 21 12 -15 9 - 12 6 - 9 3 - 6 < 3

Million Ton Million Ton

Regional distribution of CO2 emissions in India for 2030 in reference scenario

AIM/Enduse China, India, Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam, Bangladesh

SLIDE 7

GDP loss due to CO2 and solid waste constraints without countermeasures Mitigation from environmental investment Mitigation from technological improvement Mitigation from taxation policy Mitigation from green consumption GDP loss after mitigation GDP loss from reference case (Trillion yen at 1995 prices)

1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0

2010 2007 Year Mitigation of GDP loss

AIM/Material (Japan, India, China)

SLIDE 8

AIM/Impact [Country]

Global GIS data GIS data scaled down for national scale assessment Input GIS data for impact assessment models GIS tool for trimming away ex-focused area GIS tool for spatial interpolation GIS tool for input data development (Scenario Creator) Socioeconomic and GHG emissions scenarios GIS output data of the impact assessment model Penman-PET model Thornthwaite-PET model Potential crop productivity model Surface runoff model River discharge model Water demand model Malarial potential model Holdridge vegetation classification Koeppen vegetation classification Vegetation shift potential model Model parameters Interface tool for visualizing data on IDRIDI Interface tool for visualizing data on plain spatial data viewer GIS tool for sub-national aggregation

P R E F . I D N A T R E G P R E F V A L U E 3 9 2 1 1 J P N H

• k

k a i d

• H
• k

k a i d

• 1

2 3 9 2 2 1 J P N T

• h
• k

u A

• m
• r

i

• 1

3 9 2 2 4 J P N T

• h
• k

u A k i t a

• 5

3 9 2 2 2 J P N T

• h
• k

u I w a t e

• 5

3 9 2 2 4 J P N T

• h
• k

u A k i t a 2 3 9 2 2 5 J P N T

• h
• k

u Y a m a g a t a 3 3 9 2 2 3 J P N T

• h
• k

u M i y a g i

• 1

3 3 9 2 4 1 J P N H

• k

u r i k u N i i g a t a

• 2

3 9 2 2 6 J P N T

• h
• k

u F u k u s h i m a 8 3 9 2 4 3 J P N H

• k

u r i k u I s h i k a w a

• 6

3 9 2 3 2 J P N K a n t

• T
• c

h i g i

• 7

3 9 2 3 3 J P N K a n t

• G

u m m a 1 5 3 9 2 5 2 J P N C h u b u N a g a n

• 1

7 3 9 2 4 2 J P N H

• k

u r i k u T

• y

a m a 1 2 3 9 2 3 1 J P N K a n t

• I

b a r a k i

• 1

GIS data for sub-national spatial aggregation

(1) Development of input GIS data for model (2) Impact/Adaptation assessment (3) Analysis of GIS data and outputs

SLIDE 9

AIM/Trend

• 50

50 100 150 200 250 300 South East Asia South Asia East Asia Central Asia Change in energy-related CO2 emissions by 2032 relative to 2002 (%)

Afghanistan Bangladesh Iran Maldives Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka Brunei Cambodia Indonesia Lao Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam China Korea, Dem Korea, Rep Japan Mongolia Taiwan, China Kazakhstan Kyrgyz Republic Turkmenistan Tajikistan Uzbekistan Australia New Zealand Fiji Kiribati Nauru Palau Papua New Guinea French Polynesia Tonga Vanuatu Samoa Solomon Islands India Bhutan

South Asia Southeast Asia East Asia Central Asia ANZ and South Pacific

MK PO SC SU MK: Market First PO: Policy First SC: Security First SU: Sustainability First MK PO SC SU MK PO SC SU MK PO SC SU MK PO SC SU ANZ and South Pacific

• 50

50 100 150 200 250 300 South East Asia South Asia East Asia Central Asia Change in energy-related CO2 emissions by 2032 relative to 2002 (%)

Afghanistan Bangladesh Iran Maldives Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka Brunei Cambodia Indonesia Lao Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam China Korea, Dem Korea, Rep Japan Mongolia Taiwan, China Kazakhstan Kyrgyz Republic Turkmenistan Tajikistan Uzbekistan Australia New Zealand Fiji Kiribati Nauru Palau Papua New Guinea French Polynesia Tonga Vanuatu Samoa Solomon Islands India Bhutan

South Asia Southeast Asia East Asia Central Asia ANZ and South Pacific

Afghanistan Bangladesh Iran Maldives Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka Brunei Cambodia Indonesia Lao Malaysia Myanmar Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam China Korea, Dem Korea, Rep Japan Mongolia Taiwan, China Kazakhstan Kyrgyz Republic Turkmenistan Tajikistan Uzbekistan Australia New Zealand Fiji Kiribati Nauru Palau Papua New Guinea French Polynesia Tonga Vanuatu Samoa Solomon Islands India Bhutan

South Asia Southeast Asia East Asia Central Asia ANZ and South Pacific

MK PO SC SU MK PO SC SU MK: Market First PO: Policy First SC: Security First SU: Sustainability First MK PO SC SU MK PO SC SU MK PO SC SU MK PO SC SU MK PO SC SU MK PO SC SU MK PO SC SU MK PO SC SU ANZ and South Pacific

Energy related CO2 emissions in sub- regions of the Asia-Pacific region

SLIDE 10

AIM/Enduse database system, optimization system and GIS

Sum of Value Energy_Device Remov al CK1 CK2 COLBLR Year NO N NO N NO N SFG D _base 4,700,000 1,300,000 24,528,000 1,752,000 1995 4,700,000 1,300,000 24,528,000 1,752,000 1996 6,000,000 26,134,533 1,664,400 1997 6,180,000 27,624,834 1,584,466 1998 6,365,400 29,010,707 1,510,876 1999 6,556,362 30,301,836 1,442,662 2000 6,753,053 31,506,418 1,379,091 2001 6,955,645 32,631,543 1,319,587 2002 7,164,314 33,683,447 1,263,694 2003 7,379,244 34,667,680 1,211,035 2004 7,600,621 35,589,232 1,161,300 2005 7,828,640 36,452,618 1,114,226

AIM/Enduse Database AIM/Enduse GAMS program AIM/Enduse GIS System (IDRISI 32) AIM/Enduse Database System (MS Access) AIM/Enduse GAMS Program (GAMS) User interface Display of output with pivot table and chart User

Input file of GAMS Program Output file of GAMS Program

Input file

• f GIS System

Export module Export module Import module

. 1 2 . 5 2 5 . 3 7 . 5 5 . 6 2 . 5 7 5 . 8 7 . 5 1 . 1 1 2 . 5 1 2 5 . 1 3 7 . 5 1 5 . 1 6 2 . 5 1 7 5 . 1 8 7 . 5 > = 2 . . 1 2 . 5 2 5 . 3 7 . 5 5 . 6 2 . 5 7 5 . 8 7 . 5 1 . 1 1 2 . 5 1 2 5 . 1 3 7 . 5 1 5 . 1 6 2 . 5 1 7 5 . 1 8 7 . 5 > = 2 . . 6 . 2 5 1 2 . 5 1 8 . 7 5 2 5 . 3 1 . 2 5 3 7 . 5 4 3 . 7 5 5 . 5 6 . 2 5 6 2 . 5 6 8 . 7 5 7 5 . 8 1 . 2 5 8 7 . 5 9 3 . 7 5 > = 1 .

SLIDE 11

• Local Air Pollution Modelling
• Prof. Fujiwara, Kyoto University

Other Model Development

• Non-CO2 Gas Emission Modelling
• Impact Assessment in China and Korea
• Models for APEIS and MA

Water, Health, …

SLIDE 12

Activities

• AIM Training Workshop

5-6 September 2002, NIES

• APEIS Capacity Building Workshop

24-26 October 2002, New Delhi

• COP8 Side Event

25 October 2002, New Delhi

• AIM International Workshop

13-15 March 2003, NIES

SLIDE 13

SLIDE 14

SLIDE 15

SLIDE 16

Program: The 8th AIM International Workshop March 13 (Thursday) 9:30-10:00 Session I Opening (Chairperson Prof. P. R. Shukla) 9:30-9:35 Welcome Address

• Dr. S. Nishioka (NIES, Japan)

9:35-9:45 Welcome Address

• Dr. T. Morita (NIES, Japan)

9:45-10:00 Recent Development of AIM Models

• Dr. M. Kainuma (NIES, Japan)

10:00-10:50 Session II Emission Inventory and Modelling (Chairperson Dr. M. Kainuma) 10:00-10:20 Emission Inventory and Modelling in China

• Prof. X. Hu, Dr. K. Jiang and Dr. H. Yang (ERI, China)

10:20-10:40 Emission Inventory and Modelling in India

• Prof. P. R. Shukla (IIM, India)

10:40-10:50 Discussions 11:10-12:10 Session II Emission Inventory and Modelling (Continued) 11:10-11:30 Country Model in Korea

• Dr. T. Jung (IGES, Japan) and Prof. S. JO (Andong University)

11:30-11:50 AIM/Enduse Model for Thailand: Effects of CO2 Emission Constraints

• Prof. R. Shrestha (AIT, Thailand)

11:50-12:10 Discussions

SLIDE 17

(Chairperson Dr. K. Jiang) 13:40-14:00 Local Air Pollution Modelling

• Prof. T. Fujiwara

14:00-14:20 Advanced Electric Generating Technologies in a Computable General Equilibrium Model

• Dr. R. Sands (PNNL, USA)

14:20-14:40 Non-CO2 Gas Emissions Modelling

• Dr. J. Fujino (NIES, Japan)

14:40-15:00 Discussions 15:20-16:30Session IV Impact Modelling (Chairperson Dr. H. Harasawa) 15:20-15:40 Recent Development of the AIM/Impact Model

• Dr. H. Harasawa (NIES, Japan)

15:40-16:00 Impact Assessment of Forest Influenced by Changing Global Climate

• Dr. S. Jeon and Mr. H.C. Jung (KEI, Korea)

16:00-16:20 Database for AIM(Impact Model) /China

• Prof. J. Sun and Prof. Z. Li (IGSNRR, China)

16:20-16:30 Discussions 16:50-18:00Session IV Impact Modelling (Continued) 16:50-17:05 Water Saving Measures for Policy Design

• Dr. S. You (IGSNRR, China)

17:05-17:25 Impact Model

• Dr. Y. Hijioka (NIES, Japan)

17:25-17:45 AIM Country Model

• Mr. K. Takahashi (NIES, Japan)

17:45 scussions

SLIDE 18

March 14 (Friday) 9:10-10:20 Session V AIM/Enduse Modelling (Chairperson Dr. R. Sands) 9:10-9:30 Emission Inventory and Modelling in Malaysia

• Prof. A.Z. Abidin (Universiti Purtra, Malaysia)

9:30-9:50 AIM/Country Model in South Asia

• Prof. R. Pandey (NIES, Japan; IIM, Lucknow, India)

9:50-10:10 The latest version of AIM/Enduse Model

• Mr. G. Hibino (Fuji Research Institute, Japan)

10:10-10:20 Discussions 10:30-12:00 Session VI New Direction of Integrated Modelling (Chairperson Prof. P. R. Shukl 10:30-11:15 New Integrated Modelling with Special Reference to AIM/Ecosystem Model

• Prof. Y. Matsuoka (Kyoto University, Japan)

11:15- 11:30 AIM/Trend and AIM/CGE

• Dr. J. Fujino (NIES, Japan)

11:30- 11:45 Integration of Emission, Climate Change and Impacts

• Dr. T. Masui and Mr. K. Takahashi (NIES, Japan),

11:45-12:00 Discussions

SLIDE 19

13:30-15:25 Session VII APEIS (Asian Pacific Environmental Innovation Strategies) and MA (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment) (Chairperson Prof. Y. Matsuoka) 13:30-13:50 Overview of APEIS-IEA (Integrated Environmental Assessment) and MA

• Dr. T. Morita (NIES, Japan)

13:50-14:10 Preliminary Results for MA

• Dr. H. Harasawa (NIES, Japan)

14:10-14:25 AIM/Material Japan

• Dr. T. Masui (NIES, Japan) and Ms. M. Miyashita (TIT, Japan)

14:25-14:40 AIM/Material India

• Dr. A. Rana (NIES, Japan)

14:40-14:55 AIM/Material China

• Dr. H. Yang (ERI, China)

14:55-15:10 AIM/Material India with Natural Resources

• Dr. T. Masui and Dr. A. Rana (NIES, Japan)

15:10-15:25 Discussions

SLIDE 20

15:45-16:25 Session VII APEIS and MA (Continued) (Chairperson Dr. T. Morita) 15:45-16:05 Comparison Study of Innovation

• Dr. A. Rana (NIES, Japan), Prof. P.K. Shukla (IIM, India),
• Dr. K. Jiang (ERI, China), Prof. R. Shrestha (AIT, Thailand)

16:05-16:25 Strategic Database and Indicators

• Mr. G. Hibino (Fuji Research Institute, Japan)

16:25-17:55 Session VIII Discussion (Chairperson Dr. Morita) 16:25-17:25 Discussions on APEIS and MA 17:25-17:55 Open Discussions 17:55-18:00 Session IX Closing (Chairperson Dr. Morita) 17:55-18:00 Closing Address

• Dr. H. Harasawa (NIES, Japan)

SLIDE 21

Thank you for your collaboration!

SLIDE 22

Application: Application: Scenario Analysis Scenario Analysis for UNEP/GEO 3 for UNEP/GEO 3

0 5 10 100 1000 gC/m2/year

1995 2032 2032 Conventional Policy

CO2 emission intensity CO2 emission intensity