AIM/Trend Model Junichi Fujino (NIES, Japan) APEIS Capacity - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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AIM/Trend Model Junichi Fujino (NIES, Japan) APEIS Capacity - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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AIM/Trend Model Junichi Fujino (NIES, Japan) APEIS Capacity Building Workshop on Integrated Environment Assessment in the Asia Pacific Region October 24, 2002 Hotel Grand Inter-Continental, New Delhi 1 Objectives To prospect the situation of

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Junichi Fujino (NIES, Japan)

AIM/Trend Model

APEIS Capacity Building Workshop on Integrated Environment Assessment in the Asia Pacific Region October 24, 2002 Hotel Grand Inter-Continental, New Delhi

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Objectives

To prospect the situation of economy, energy and environment in Asia-Pacific region

  • to cover as wide a range of countries in Asia-Pacific

region (42 countries)

  • the target year is 2032 (= Johannesburg summit + 30)
  • to use simple method and develop several scenarios
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Target Countries

Detailed data model (Model A) Simple data model (Model B)

Code Country Group AUS Australia ANZ BGD Bangladesh SA CHN China EA IDN Indonesia SEA IND India SA IRN Iran SA JPN Japan EA KAZ Kazakhstan CA KGZ Kyrgyz Republic CA KOR Korea,Rep EA LKA Sri Lanka SA MMR Myanmar SEA MYS Malaysia SEA NPL Nepal SA NZL New Zealand ANZ PAK Pakistan SA PHL Philippines SEA PRK Korea,Dem EA SGP Singapore SEA THA Thailand SEA TJK Tajikistan CA TKM Turkmenistan CA TWN Taiwan EA UZB Uzbekistan CA VNM Vietnam SEA Code Country Group AFG Afghanistan SA BRN Brunei SEA BTN Bhutan SA FJI Fiji SP KHM Cambodia SEA KIR Kiribati SP LAO Lao SEA MDV Maldives SA MNG Mongolia EA NRU Nauru SP PLW Palau SP PNG Papua New Guinea SP PYF French Polynesia SP SLB Solomon Islands SP TON Tonga SP VUT Vanuatu SP WSM Samoa SP Code Group SA South Asia SEA Southeast Asia EA Northwest Pacific and East Asia CA Cetral Asia ANZ Australia And New Zealand SP South Pacific

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Target Period

400 800 1,200 1,600 1970 1990 2010 2030 Year Population (Million)

2032: Rio summit (1992) + 40 Johannesburg summit (2002) + 30

1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 1970 1990 2010 2030 Year GDP (Bill.US$) 1 2 3 4 5 6 GDP per capita (1000US$/cap)

GDP GDPCPT

To show “Historical data” + “Projection results”

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(1) Population: population, rate of urbanization (2) Economy: GDP (growth rate, per capita), GDP share (agriculture, industry, service, PFC (private final consumption), car holders (3) Energy: primary energy supply by fuel, final energy demand by fuel and sector, energy plant, economic intensity, carbon intensity (4) Environment: GHG (CO2, SOx, NOx, CH4, N2O, CO) emissions, wastes (5) Water: withdrawal, consumption (agriculture, industry, domestic), population in water stress* (6) Food and Agriculture*: average daily consumption, vegetable food consumption, animal food consumption, fraction of meat from feedlots, fish production, crop production, feed production, nitrogen fertilizer consumption (7) Land use*: crop land, irrigated cropland, potential cultivable land, mature forest, growing forest, pasture, protected, other land (8) Human Health*: SPM (PM10, PM2.5) (9) Biodiversity*: species, degree of threat to biological diversity, area of habitat remaining Note: sign “*” means the element under consideration.

Target Indices

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Model Structure

Population Economy Energy Supply and Demand GHGs Emissions Water Supply and Demand Wastes Driving Forces

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Model Procedures

Regression analysis Prospect

y = 9.8494x

  • 0.5724

R2 = 0.9778 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 500 1000 1500 2000 GDP/cap [1995US$/cap] AVA share of GDP [%]

GDP share (AVA, IVA, SVA) car holders final energy demand energy share Scenario Setting GDP, population, AEEI, non fossil fuel supply… Regression results GDP share, final energy demand…

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Primary Energy Supply COL, OIL, GAS, CRW NUC, HYD, GEO, NEW Final Energy Demand IND, TPR, TPO, AGR, OTH Electricity Share Heat Share IND, TPR, TPO, AGR, OTH Final Energy Demand: excluding Electricity and Heat IND, TPR, TPO, AGR, OTH Final Energy Demand: Electricity and Heat IND, TPR, TPO, AGR, OTH Input for Electricity plant, Heat plant, and CHP Elasticity IND: IVA TPR: CAR TPO: GDP AGR: AVA OTH: PFC Driving Force Population GDP *IVASHR *AVASHR *PFCSHR CARCAP

Calculation Flow of Energy Supply and Demand (Model A)

Fossil fuel power plant share Fossil fuel share AEEI Generation efficiency Distribution loss

IVA: Industry Value Added AVA: Agriculture Value Added PFC: Private Final Consumption CARCAP: Car holders per capita IND: Industry TPR: Transport on road TPO: Other transport AGR: Agriculture OTH: Other

Non-fossil fuel supply Non-fossil fuel supply Scenario Regression Calculation (Fix)

COL: Coal OIL: Oil GAS: Gas CRW: Combustible and renewables NUC: Nuclear HYD: Hydro power GEO: Geothermal NEW: Wind, PV, and so on

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ATPL (AIM/Trend Program Language)

  • Built with VBA of Microsoft Excel
  • Major commands are load, save, future parameter

setting, future projection, format and regression. Interface

  • Clickable buttons are designed to perform

simulations effectively. They are written in ATPL and users can write or change programs for their

  • wn purpose.

Programming and Interface

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ATPL

Example program ImpSrsTest A B C D E 1 Program ImpSrsTest 2 OpenWS !Import DAT <1 3 Series !Import YEAR <1 4 !Table DATA1 5 ImpSrs !Table Data 6 POP POP_A <1 7 GDP GDP_A 8 End Input data sheet 'DAT' A B C D E 1 2 #TABLE DATA1 3 YEAR 1990 1995 2000 4 POP_A 1,000 1,010 1,020 5 GDP_A 1,000 1,050 1,120 6

Open worksheet Import series data time series time series data name Please see “AIMTrend-AddIn Manual.doc”

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Interface

File Operation

Load Data Case

Future Projection

Projection of Energy Use Save data

India

Projection of Water Use Write Output to "Result" Sheet Projection All

Choose “country” Save simulation case by clicking the button Run the program with your data set

Please see “AIMTrend-User's Manual.doc”

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UNEP/GEO3 scenario Market First (MK): market driven developments converge on the values and expectations that prevail in industrialized countries Policy First (PO): concerted action on environment and social issues occurs through incremental policy adjustments Security First (SC): inequality and conflict prevail, brought about by socio-economic and environmental stresses Sustainability First (SU): a new development paradigm emerges in response to the challenge of sustainability, supported by new values and institutions

Scenario Study

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2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 1970 1990 2010 2030 Year GDP (Bill.US$) 1 2 3 4 5 6 GDP per capita (1000US$/cap) GDP GDPCPT

Driving forces

400 800 1,200 1,600 1970 1990 2010 2030 Year Population (Million)

10 20 30 40 50 60 1970 1990 2010 2030 Year GDP share (%) AVASHR IVASHR SVASHR

Regression Regression Basic scenario Basic scenario

Sustainability First (SU) Scenario for China

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500 1,000 1,500 2,000 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Year Final energy demand by sector (MTOE) OTH AGR TPO TPR IND 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Year Primary energy supply by fuel (MTOE) NEW GEO HYD NUC CRW GAS OIL COL

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 1970 1990 2010 2030 Year

TPE ,TFE (MTOE)

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 CO2 emissions (Mt-C)

TPE TFE CO2

TPE (Total Primary Energy Supply), TFE (Total Final Energy Demand)

Energy structure

Energy structure of FE Energy and CO2 emissions Energy structure of PE

Sustainability First (SU) Scenario for China

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1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Year CO2 emissions (Mt-C) Historical data Market First Policy First Security First Sustainability First

Energy related CO2 emissions in Asia-Pacific region

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Energy related CO2 emissions in sub-regions of Asia-Pacific region

  • 50

50 100 150 200 250 300 South East Asia South Asia East Asia Central Asia ANZ and South Pacific

Change in energy-related CO2 emissions by 2032 relative to 2002 (%)

Afghanistan Bangladesh India Iran Maldives Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka Brunei Darussalam Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand Cambodia Lao PDR Myanmar Singapore Viet Nam China DPR Korea

  • Rep. Of Korea

Japan Mongolia Taiwan Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Turkmenistan Tajikistan Uzbekistan Australia New Zealand Fiji Kiribati Nauru Palau Papua New Guinea French Polynesia Tonga Vanuatu Samoa Solomon Islands Bhutan

South Asia Southeast Asia East Asia Central Asia ANZ and South Pacific MK PO SC SU MK: Market First PO: Policy First SC: Security First SU: Sustainability First MK PO SC SU MK PO SC SU MK PO SC SU MK PO SC SU

  • 50

50 100 150 200 250 300 South East Asia South Asia East Asia Central Asia ANZ and South Pacific

Change in energy-related CO2 emissions by 2032 relative to 2002 (%)

Afghanistan Bangladesh India Iran Maldives Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka Brunei Darussalam Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand Cambodia Lao PDR Myanmar Singapore Viet Nam Viet Nam China DPR Korea

  • Rep. Of Korea

Japan Mongolia Taiwan Taiwan Kazakhstan Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Turkmenistan Tajikistan Uzbekistan Australia New Zealand Fiji Kiribati Nauru Palau Papua New Guinea French Polynesia Tonga Vanuatu Samoa Solomon Islands Bhutan

South Asia Southeast Asia East Asia Central Asia ANZ and South Pacific MK PO SC SU MK PO SC SU MK: Market First PO: Policy First SC: Security First SU: Sustainability First MK PO SC SU MK PO SC SU MK PO SC SU MK PO SC SU MK PO SC SU MK PO SC SU MK PO SC SU MK PO SC SU

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Next steps

  • Revised AIM/Trend model (version 2)
  • Scenarios should be checked by experts in each

region

  • Develop renewables, nuclear, gas supply scenario
  • Add waste sector, food/biomass sector…
  • Other role of AIM/Trend model:

database, display of scenario results AIM/Trend scenarios can be used as input data for

  • ther AIM models (AIM/CGE, AIM/Country...)
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Contents of CD-ROM

/Document: AIM/Trend documents AIMTrend-AddIn Manual.doc AIMTrend User’s Manual.doc Overview of AIM-Trend Model.ppt AIM-Trend.mdb /UserDataA: data folder for Model A /UserDataB: data folder for Model B /DAT: data folder for historical data and energy data Model_A.xls: program for Model A Model_B.xls : program for Model B Summary.xls : program for data aggregation

Program Data Document

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How to install AIM/Trend model

  • Copy all files and folders from CD-ROM into your

computer.

  • ex. c:¥AIM-Trend
  • Install “AIM Trend.xla”

– Execute Microsoft Excel – Select [Tools]-[Add-Ins] menu option. – Click “Browse” button and select “AIM Trend.xla” file.

  • ex. C:¥AIM-Trend¥Addins¥AIM Trend.xla
  • If “AIM Trend” menu bar appears, you succeed to install

AIM/Trend model !

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AIM/Trend model Exercise

1) Open “Model_A.xls” file in your AIM/Trend folder. (please enable macro) 2) Choose your country from “load data” on “GUI” sheet. 3) Move to “GPro” sheet and “Result” sheet. Check the results of your country. 4) Choose other country from “load data” on “GUI” sheet and check the results. 5) Move to “Pam” sheet. You can check the assumptions for the projection. 6) Change population data, GDP growth rate data, or AEEI (Autonomous Energy Efficiency Improvement) data as you like. 7) Return to “GUI” sheet, and click “Pam Set All” button. “Projection of Driving Force”, “Projection of Final Energy Demand”, and “Projection of Energy Share ” will be done. 8) Click “Projection All”. You can see new results with your new input data on “GUI” sheet and “Result” sheet.