Low Carbon Scenarios Low Carbon Scenarios for India to 2050 for - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Low Carbon Scenarios Low Carbon Scenarios for India to 2050 for - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Aug 22, 2023 165 likes •276 views

COP11 and COP/MOP1 side event COP11 and COP/MOP1 side event Global Challenges Toward Low- -Carbon Economy Carbon Economy Global Challenges Toward Low -Focus on Country Focus on Country- -Specific Scenario Analysis Specific Scenario

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SLIDE 1

P.R. Shukla ( P.R. Shukla (shukla@iimahd.ernet.in shukla@iimahd.ernet.in) ) Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad (IIMA) Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad (IIMA)

Low Carbon Scenarios Low Carbon Scenarios for India to 2050 for India to 2050

COP11 and COP/MOP1 side event COP11 and COP/MOP1 side event Global Challenges Toward Low Global Challenges Toward Low-

  • Carbon Economy

Carbon Economy

  • Focus on Country

Focus on Country-

  • Specific Scenario Analysis

Specific Scenario Analysis-

  • December 3, 2005 Montreal

December 3, 2005 Montreal

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SLIDE 2

Drivers of Future Emissions

Population

0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 1950

Population in billions

High Medium Low 2000 2050 2100 100 year CAGR

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 GDP index (2000=1) High Medium Low

4.5% 4 % 3.5% 5.56% 4.91 % 4.71% 50 year CAGR

Economic Growth

Conventional Drivers

  • Population
  • Economic Growth
  • Energy Resources
  • Technologies

Emerging Drivers for Developing Countries

  • Transition Processes (Lock-ins)
  • International Labor Markets
  • Human Capital
  • Knowledge Flows
  • Governance (Risks, Investments)
slide-3
SLIDE 3

Indian Emissions Scenarios

Fragmented

IA1

Globalization High Growth

IA2

Mixed Economy

IB1

Sustainable Development

IB2

Self Reliance

Centralizati

  • n

Decentralization

Market integration G

  • v

e r n a n c e

Integrated

CO2 Emissions Projections for India

900 2000 1800 2700 3600 4500 5400 6300 7200 2020 2060 2100 CO2 Emissions (MT) 8100 2040 2080 IA2 IB2 IB1 IA1 IA1T

2050

ERB/Mini-CAM SGM AIM/Material AIM/Trend Inventory Assessment Health Impact Assessment GIS Model Productivity Global Energy Prices Regional projections Power Sector LP Demand Projection AIM/End-Use ANSWER MARKAL Stochastic MARKAL

AIM/Local

Bottom-up Models

Energy Balances Sector Demand End

  • use

Demand Technology Share Scenarios Emissions Consolidation Prices, GDP

Top-down Models

GEMA Local Emissions Projections of Technology Specifications

Local/Sector Models

Modeling Framework

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SLIDE 4

Indian Emissions: Equity and Cost-effectiveness

Mitigation Supply-curve from India 2005-2035)

10 20 30 40 50 60 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Carbon Mitigation (billion ton) Cost ($/Ton of Carbon)

1 2 3 4 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 1 2 3 4

Per capita emissions (CO2)

IA2 IA1 IB2 IB1

Indian Scenarios

Per Capita CO2 Emissions

IPCC A2 Scenario

Ton of Carbon Dioxide/Person 3 6 9 12 18 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 World Annex II Annex I excl. Annex II Non-Annex I (Asia) Non-Annex I (Rest) 15

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SLIDE 5

Technologies in Scenarios

IA1T IA2 IB2 IB1 IA1

750 2000 1500 2250 3000 3750 4500 2020 2050

CO2 Emissions (Million Ton)

2040 2010 2030

Frozen Technology

Conventional Technology Paths: Include significant endogenous technological change Synfuels, Next-Gen Nuclear Fission Energy efficient appliances/ infrastructure Coal liquid, IGCC, Hydrogen from gas Fuel cell vehicles, Pipeline networks Nuclear (Thorium), Carbon-free hydrogen Advanced materials, Nanotechnology Information highways, High speed trains Renewable Energy Technologies Push for renewable energy & recycling Bikeway, Advanced car sharing system Sustainable habitats & land-use practices Dematerialization, Material substitutions Substitution of transport by IT

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SLIDE 6

Stabilization Induced Low Carbon Transition

  • There is no silver bullet
  • Need to develop portfolio of technologies
  • Significant stabilization induced transitions

in the second half of 21st century

  • Stabilization induced technological change

would impose sizable GDP losses

  • Technology & financial transfers are vital

for a cost-effective and fair stabilization regime

  • Type of endogenous development path

matters to quantity and cost of mitigation

  • Cost-effective Stabilization, e.g. at 550

ppmv level, would require mitigation in India even in case of low endogenous emissions scenarios

  • Low endogenous emissions trajectory

would result from technology innovations and sustainable actions

  • High economic growth does not mean high

emissions

550 ppmv CO2 Stabilization Induced Energy/ Technology Transition in India in A2 Scenario

500 1000 1500 2000 2500

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

Carbon Capture Energy Efficiency Wind Solar Biomass Hydro Nuclear Gas Oil India 550 ppmv emission

550 PPMV 550 PPMV

400 800 1200 2000 1600

500 1000 1500 2000 2500

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

Carbon Capture Energy Efficiency Wind Solar Biomass Hydro Nuclear Gas Oil India 550 ppmv emission

550 PPMV 550 PPMV

500 1000 1500 2000 2500

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

Carbon Capture Energy Efficiency Wind Solar Biomass Hydro Nuclear Gas Oil India 550 ppmv emission

550 PPMV 550 PPMV

400 800 1200 2000 1600

Emissions in Million Ton of Carbon

Indian Emission Scenarios & Cost-effective 550ppmv mitigation trajectory

200 2000 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 2020 2060 2100

Carbon Emissions (MT)

1800 2040 2080

200 2000 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 2020 2060 2100

Carbon Emissions (MT)

1800 2040 2080 200 2000 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 2020 2060 2100 1800 2040 2080

550 ppmv 550 ppmv

IA2 IA2 IB2 IB2 IB1 IB1 IA1 IA1 IA1T IA1T Emissions in Million Ton of Carbon

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SLIDE 7

National Development Targets Climate Quality Economic/social Indicator

Aligning Development and Climate

Aligning Development & Climate Actions to Gain Multiple Dividends

Indian Examples

  • Air Quality and GHG Mitigation
  • Energy Security and GHG Mitigation
  • South-Asia Regional Energy and Economic Cooperation and Climate
  • Infrastructure Investment and Climate Risks

Technology & Institutional Innovations Climate Quality Economic/social Indicator

Climate Goal

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SLIDE 8

Joint SO2 and CO2 Mitigation

Mitigation Regime Co-benefits SO2 mitigation alone Little carbon mitigation Joint Mitigation: CO2 mitigation @ $5/ton & same SO2 target Joint mitigation costs $400 Million less

Joint Mitigation (Period 2005-2030)

SO2 Emissions Million Ton

1 2 3 4 5 6

1995 2005 2015 2025 2035

7

Frozen SO2 Control Policies A2 Scenario Emission

Carbon Emissions 200 400 600 800 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 Million Ton of Carbon

A2 Scenario Emissions With Carbon Price @ $5/ton of CO2 With BAU SO2 Control Policies

Energy Security and GHG Mitigation

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

1953 1960 1970 1980 1990 2002

Percentage of Primary Energy Biomass Hydro Coal Oil Gas Nuclear

50 years of Primary Energy Transitions in India

Energy Security: How choices matter to climate?

  • Domestic Coal – High Emissions
  • Nuclear Fission – Carbon Free, Safety Issues
  • Wind – Limited Potential, Supply stability
  • Solar – High upfront cost, Supply stability, Storage
  • Bio-fuels

Ethanol – Food Security, Water Stress Bio-Diesel – Land Restoration, Employment

Indian Bio-diesel Mission

  • Phase I (2003-07):Demonstration Projects
  • Crop: Jatropha Curcas
  • 400,000 hectares of land
  • Participation by Oil Companies
  • Phase II (2007-2012)
  • Self Sustaining Expansion of Biodiesel
  • Production target 1.2 MT of oil/ hectare
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SLIDE 9

Benefit (Saving)

Cumulative from 2010 to 2030

$ Billion

% GDP

Energy 60 Exa Joule 321 0.87 CO2 Equiv. 5.1 Billion Ton 28 0.08 SO2 50 Million Ton 10 0.03 Total 359 0.98

South-Asia Energy Cooperation

Spillover Benefits:

  • 16 MW additional Hydropower
  • Flood control
  • Lower energy prices would enhance

competitiveness of regional industries

Infrastructure and Climate

More number of days with >200 mm rainfall Very high number of days with >200 mm rainfall Less number

  • f

days with >200 mm rainfall Present C limate Future Climate Probability of Occurrence Light and spread

  • over rain

Heavy and concentrated rain Number of days with

> 200mm rainfall

Increase in mean and variability due to Climate Change

Arabian Sea

Monsoon Rainfall (2050)

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SLIDE 10

Conclusions

  • Strategies for low carbon future should begin with shaping

endogenous development path

  • Stabilization would require mitigation even in low endogenous

emission scenarios

  • Achieving cost-effective global transition to low carbon future

would call for substantial mitigation and adaptation actions in Developing Countries

  • Stabilization would significantly alter energy system
  • Policies and measures for achieving “National Sustainable

Development Goals” provide climate friendly opportunities

  • Aligning development and climate actions would accrue multiple

dividends from co-benefits/spillovers and reduce ‘climate burden’