Low Carbon Scenarios: European Commission Development Method - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

14/06/06 Visions for a Low Carbon Society 1

Low Carbon Scenarios: European Commission Development Method

POLES: A world energy model and its applications

• A. Soria

IPTS, DG JRC Seville

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POLES: Model goals

A world

world simulation model for the analysis of energy systems and their global environmental impacts to 2010 and 2030 :

– scenarios and projections for energy demand, supply and prices – analysis of CO2 emission reduction options in an international perspective – impacts of technological change and R&D strategies

Policy Outlook on Long Term Energy Systems

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CONTRIBUTIONS TO MODEL DEVELOPMENT

The model development has been initially funded under the JOULE II programme

• f EU-DG XII with the main contribution the CNRS-IEPE, ECOSIM, JRC-

IPTS and the support of Enerdata, CEPII, ETSU, FhG-ISI and other partners.

1993-1995, a first version. 1996-1997, JOULE III programme CTS (Climate Technology Strategy) project :

– complementarity with other models such as PRIMES and GEM-E3 new model

1998-1999, the POLES model improvement and utilisation continue in the EU-

DG XII « JOULE III » programme, in the TEEM (Technology Endogenisation in Energy Models) project

1999-2001: SAPIENT 2000-2002: GECS 2001-2003: WETO, ACROPOLIS

2004-2006: EU New Member States, CIS, WETO-H2, EC

Communication “Winning the Battle Agianst Climate Change”

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The POLES model

The POLES 5 model is a recursive simulation model at world level,

working on a year by year basis, from 1998 to 2030

It incorporates more than 60 000 variables of which appr.:

– 10 000 exogenous variables – 15 000 endogenous

It is thus built of a system of >50 000 equations organised in modules for

the different countries/regions and energy consuming sectors, activities and technologies

The model provides a regularly updated Reference Case with associated

CO2 reduction costs, Technology Stories and other cases or sensitivity analyses

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POLES 5: Modelling Characteristics

Economic analysis

– Recursive year by year simulation process, with behavioural equations for energy demand, conversion, production and price- making processes

Outputs

– World long-term energy scenarios or projections – National-regional energy balance and CO2 emissions simulation – Analysis of new energy technologies potentials, markets and diffusion – Test of energy policies and energy RTD strategies

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POLES 5 : Geographical coverage 47 regions

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POLES 5: Energy demand disaggregation

INDUSTRY Steel Industry Chemical industry (+feedstock) Non metallic mineral industry Other industries (+non energy use) STI CHI (CHF) NMM OIN (ONE) TRANSPORT Road transport Rail transport Air transport Other transports ROT RAT ART OTT RAS Residential sector Service sector Agriculture RES SER AGR

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Reaction on price and income changes

Standard Demand Equation

Ln(FC) = RES_FC+Ln(FC[-1])

residual and lagged variable

+ES*(0.67*Ln(AP/AP[-1])+0,33*Ln(AP[-1]/AP[-2]))

short-term price effect, current year and year -1

+EL* Σ Σ Σ Σ (i = -1to -DP : 6*DI[i-1]/(DP*(DP**2-1))*(i**2+DP*i)*Ln(AP[i-1]/AP[i-2]))

long-term price effect with distributed lag and asymmetry factor

+EY*Ln(VA/VA[-1])

income/activity elasticity

+Ln(1+TR/100)

autonomous technological trend

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Technology Rich / Bottom-up Model: New and Renewable Energy Technologies

Small combined heat and power (cogeneration)

CHP

Small hydro power plants (<10 Mwe)

SHY

Wind power (grid connected)

WND

Solar thermal power plants (grid connected)

SPP

Decentalised roof integrated photovoltaic system

DPV

Rural electrification photovoltaic system

RPV

Low temperature solar heat in building

LTS

Conventional biomass (waste, electric., biofuels) BF1, BF2, BF3 Biomass gasification in gas turbines

BGT

Fuel-cells (vehicles, stationary and cogen.)

FCV, MFC, SFC

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Technology Rich / Bottom-up Model: Electricity generation technologies

Conventional large size hydropower

HYD

Nuclear Light Water Reactor

LWR

New nuclear design

NND

Supercritical pulverised fuel combustion (coal)

PFC

Integrated coal gasification with CC

ICG

Advanced thermodynamic cycle (coal)

ATC

Lignite powered conventional thermal

LCT

Coal powered conventional thermal

CCT

Oil powered conventional thermal

OCT

Gas powered conventional thermal

GCT

Gas powered gas turbine in combined cycle

GGT

Oil powered gas turbine in combined cycle

OGT

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POLES 5: 31 major Oil & Gas producers

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POLES 5 World Oil Production

Oil production depends :

– for Non OPEC, on the oil price and the Reserve/Prod. ratio – for OPEC non-Gulf, on the residual demand for OPEC oil – for Gulf countries on the residual demand and on capacities

0,0 10,0 20,0 30,0 40,0 50,0 60,0 70,0 65 70 75 80 85 90 OPEC NOPEC Mbd 0,0 10,0 20,0 30,0 40,0 50,0 65 70 75 80 85 90 OPEC NOPEC Mbd

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POLES 5 : International Energy Prices - OIL

The world oil price depends in the short run on the Gulf

countries capacities and in the long run on variations in the world R/P ratio

Oil Production

20 40 60 80 100 120 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Mbl/d Total, inc. Non-Conv. Conventionnal Gulf

International Prices

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 $05/boe Oil Gas

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POLES 5: Natural Gas Production from three Gas Markets

RCAM OSAM FRA, ITA, RFA, BLX, DNK, FIN IRL, SWE, ESP, GRC, PRT CEU4 RCEU OOWE ONAF FSUN OMIE SSAF CHN NDE

JPN

COR OSEA OSAS OJAN

CAN USA MEX VNZ COL ECU BRA NLD GBR NOR FSUN IRN ARE IRQ KWT OMN QAT SAU ZON DZA LBY EGY NGA GAB AGO

BRN MYS IDN

CHN

NDE

AUS

PAKE

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Typical output

energy balances per country/region development of energy prices trade matrices (e.g. gas, oil, coal) emission profiles technology deployment

Scenario approach

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Application and Results

Low/High resources cases

– impact of resources (basic information from US Geological Service)

Climate change policy

– impact of climate change policy (Kyoto/post-Kyoto)

Technology cases

– accelerated technological development

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Scenario design

Scenario design has to take into account the time

horizon and the capital equipment turnover time

Short-term disruptions cannot be properly modelled

within a long-term simulation prospective (no analyses of energy crises or strategic fossil reserves, but rather security of supply indicators)

Each scenario requires an entire definition of the

main exogenous assumptions (GDP, population dynamics, reserves, technology deployment, market regulatory setup, including semi-endogenous variables, like carrying capabilities, recoverable resources and the like)

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WETO

World energy, technology and climate policy

• utlook

http://energy.jrc.es

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The Carbon Constraint Case (s)

The Carbon Constraint Case in the

• n-going WETO study doesn’t

represent an EU climate policy target.

It simply intends to explore a future

• f ambitious carbon policies and

their consequences on the energy systems

The constraints that has been

chosen are consistent with a long term trajectory allowing a stabilisation in CO2 concentrations in the range of 500 - 550 ppmv

This implies an extension to the

time horizon (and the embedded exogenous assumptions) to the year 2050

A peak in emissions between 2020

and 2030, at a level that doesn’t exceed + 50 % compared to 1990 emissions is expected

Carbon Value

20 40 60 80 100 120 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 €05/tCO2 Europe Rest Annex 1 Non-Annex 1

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The resulting world CO2 emission profile

Total emissions can stabilise

between 2015 and 2025-2030 and start a decrease

The peak in emissions seems to

corresponds to the crossing of a 25-30 €/tCO2 threshold: – just before 2015 for Annex 1 – and by 2025-2030 for Non- Annex 1

The crucial sectors to achieve

reductions seems to be the energy transformation ones

CO2 Emissions - World

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 GtCO2 Electricity Res-Ser-Agr Transport Industry 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 MtCO2 Electricity - Transformation Res - Ser. - Agr. Transport Industry

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CCC: World Primary Energy

World 2025 primary energy

consumption decreases merely from 16 Gtoe in the REF to 15 Gtoe

Part of the reduction in final energy

demand is offset by the higher contribution of nuclear energy (with higher primary heat input)

Due to early action in Annex 1, the

primary fuel mix changes quite rapidly after 2010

The structure of world primary fuel-

mix is not dramatically altered already in 2025, but renewables and nuclear start gaining market share immediately after the gas peak by 2020

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 2001 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Gtoe Renew ables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal

Primary Consumption by Region

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 2001 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Gtoe Europe North America Japan - Pacific CIS Latin America Africa Middle East China India Rest Asia

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CCC: World electricity

Total electricity consumption

is only 10 % down from the Reference as this increasingly low carbon energy-carrier substitutes to

• thers

In 2030, carbon-free

electricity is projected to account for 45% of world power (renewable sources represent 23 % of total production and nuclear electricity nearly 22 %, as its “revival” is relatively quick in Annex 1 countries.

5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 2001 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 TWh Renew ables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal

Thermal Electricity Production - World

5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 TWh w ith CO2 Capture and Storage w ithout CO2 Capture and Storage

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International Fossil Fuel Markets

Oil Trade by Region

• 3000
• 2000
• 1000

1000 2000 3000 2001 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Mtoe Rest Asia Japan - Pacific Europe North America Middle East Africa Latin America CIS Net Imports > 0

Gas Trade by Region

• 1500
• 1000
• 500

500 1000 1500 2001 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Mtoe Asia Japan - Pacific Europe North America Middle East Africa Latin America CIS Net Imports > 0

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CCC key insights

The Carbon Constrained Case (s) is/are expected

to describe a very significant reduction scenario (from factor-2 to factor-4) for Europe in a consistent world context

It shows that ambitious climate policies :

– increase the long-term sustainability of world oil and gas resource use, as well as Europe’s energy self-sufficiency – require an intensified development of each one of the four key energy portfolios: 1/ efficiency 2/ renewables 3/ nuclear energy 4/ CCS