[PPT] - Demographic Coppell Update Independent Spring 2018 School PowerPoint Presentation

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Learn from Yesterday… Understand Today… Plan for Tomorrow

Coppell Independent School District Demographic Update Spring 2018

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Economic Conditions – DFW Area (December 2017)

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Unemployment Rate

0.5%

99,800 new jobs National rate 1.2%

Job Growth

2.8%

3,202 more starts than 4Q16

Annual Home Starts

33,262

Sources: Texas Workforce Commission & Metrostudy

U.S. 3.9% Texas 3.7% DFW MSA 3.2% Coppell 2.8%

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New 34% Resale 64% Foreclosure 1% REO Sale 1%

2017 District Home Sales by Type

Coppell ISD Home Sales

2017 Home Sales by Transaction Type

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Coppell ISD had 1,160 home sales in 2017, and roughly 34% were of new homes
The average sale price in 2017 for a new home in CISD was $535,873
The average sale price in 2017 for an existing home in CISD was $416,607

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Rank District Name Annual Starts Annual Closings VDL Future 1 Frisco ISD 2,486 2,729 4,488 5,628 2 Prosper ISD 2,890 2,692 6,351 24,785 3 Denton ISD 2,037 1,883 2,651 32,583 4 Dallas ISD 2,041 1,854 1,733 7,339 5 Northwest ISD 1,748 1,847 1,941 31,864 6 Little Elm ISD 1,473 1,258 1,227 3,436 7 Lewisville ISD 1,141 1,188 1,943 4,485 8 Rockwall ISD 968 961 1,862 8,291 9 Eagle Mt.‐Saginaw ISD 1,181 925 1,377 19,265 10 McKinney ISD 788 863 1,626 8,084 11 Forney ISD 1,120 850 1,595 13,949 12 Keller ISD 707 816 651 1,698 13 Wylie ISD 813 759 1,164 3,996 14 Mansfield ISD 654 710 1,018 6,836 15 Allen ISD 711 707 1,406 1,208 16 Midlothian ISD 768 611 1,331 19,550 17 Fort Worth ISD 587 606 824 5,034 18 Garland ISD 411 578 390 4,065 19 Crowley ISD 653 537 996 12,584 20 Waxahachie ISD 574 511 754 9,446 21 Coppell ISD* 407 481 328 605 22 Plano ISD 563 445 979 2,288 23 Aledo ISD 546 414 1,169 15,056 24 Anna ISD 497 409 361 4,652 25 HEB ISD 465 393 593 4,386

DFW New Home Ranking Report

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ISD Ranked by Annual Closings – 4Q17

*Based on additional TD Research

SLIDE 5

New Housing Activity

Coppell ISD had more than 400 new home starts for the third consecutive year
Within the district there were more than 480 new home closings in 2017
New home inventory is low at 4.6 month’s supply due to the large amount of

closings in the 4th quarter of 2017

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Coppell ISD

Starts 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Closings 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1Q 27 22 29 78 126 101 1Q 20 15 22 88 96 99 2Q 29 25 41 89 97 128 2Q 24 31 21 67 103 122 3Q 46 23 83 158 145 108 3Q 26 30 26 80 162 112 4Q 20 30 66 114 93 70 4Q 33 22 20 107 122 148 Total 122 100 219 439 461 407 Total 103 98 89 342 483 481 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

Starts Closings

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Annual Closings Distribution

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Top 5 Subdivisions ‐ 4Q17 (Ranked by Annual Closings) Rank Subdivision Annual Closings VDL Future 1 Parkside West 163 199 106 2 Bridges at Las Colinas 107 1 3 Parkside East 97 9 4 East Lake 27 5 Westhaven (Town Center) 27 72 TOTALS 421 281 106

SLIDE 7

Vacant Developed Lots

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Top 5 Subdivisions ‐ 4Q17 (Ranked by Vacant Developed Lots) Rank Subdivision Annual Closings VDL Future 1 Parkside West 163 199 106 2 Westhaven (Town Center) 27 72 3 Red Hawk Villas 7 17 4 Kyra Court 17 5 Parkside East 97 9 TOTALS 294 314 106

SLIDE 8

Future Lots

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Top 5 Subdivisions ‐ 4Q17 (Ranked by Future Inventory) Rank Subdivision Annual Closings VDL Future 1 Stonegate 206 2 Southaven 203 3 Parkside West 163 199 106 4 Blackberry Farm Addition 80 5 Petterson Addition 7 TOTALS 163 199 602

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New Home Activity by Elementary Zone

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Highest activity in the category Second highest activity in the category Third highest activity in the category

Elementary Zone Annual Starts Quarterly Starts Annual Closings Quarterly Closings Inventory VDL Futures AUSTIN

5 3 9 5 17 203

COTTONWOOD CREEK

26 8 26 7 3 6

DENTON CREEK LAKESIDE

1 2 1 80

LEE

240 37 270 82 92 200 312

MOCKINGBIRD PINKERTON

90 10 108 39 35 13 3

TOWN CENTER

39 9 54 13 13 72

VALLEY RANCH WILSON

6 3 12 7 5 20 7

TOTALS 407 70 481 148 154 328 605

SLIDE 10

District Housing Overview

10 Active Subdivision Future Subdivision

Coppell ISD has approx. 330 lots available to build on
The district has more than 600 future lots planned
Groundwork is underway on nearly 310 lots

SLIDE 11

Residential Activity

Cypress Waters

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Cypress Waters

Developer estimates 10,000 housing units at build-out
761 apartment units have been constructed to date
The Sound Apartments Phase 1 (540 units) under

construction, first units available 1Q18

Groundwork on Phase 2 of The Sound started late 2017
Developer projects adding approx. 500 additional units

between late 2018- late 2019

Single family removed from updated concept plan
Full build out is estimated to take 20-30 years
Split between Austin and Lee Elementary

Existing multi-family The Sound Phase 1 & 2

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Residential Activity

Parkside West and Parkside East

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Carrollton-Farmers Branch ISD

Parkside West

638 total lots
106 future lots
251 homes occupied
48 U/C
199 VDL
Groundwork underway on Phase 2B

(final 106 lots) homes starting fall 2018

Built 163 homes in 2017
$400K - $650K
Lee Elementary

Parkside East

249 total lots
227 homes occupied
6 U/C
9 VDL
Built nearly 100 homes in 2017
Expected built out mid 2018
$400K - $650K
Pinkerton Elementary

SLIDE 13

Residential Activity

Stonegate & Bridges at Las Colinas

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Stonegate

206 total future lots
First lots delivering by end 1Q18
Pre-sales underway
First residents expected summer 2018
Built out by Fall of 2020
$495K - $585K
Lee Elementary

Bridges at Las Colinas

399 total lots
388 occupied
3 U/C
10 VDL
Built out by mid 2018
$475K-$680K
Lee Elementary

Carrollton-Farmers Branch ISD

SLIDE 14

Residential Activity

Red Hawk Villas

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Red Hawk Villas

51 total lots
31 occupied
2 U/C
17 VDL
$550K- $865K
Building 3-5 homes per year
Wilson Elementary

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Future Residential Activity

Southaven (aka. West Cell)

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Carrollton-Farmers Branch ISD

Southaven

203 total future lots
Sold to new development company
Rezoning approved March 2017
Austin Elementary

SLIDE 16

Ten Year Forecast

By Grade Level

*Yellow box = largest grade per year *Green box = second largest grade per year

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Coppell ISD will likely exceed 13,000 students by 2019
5 year growth = 1,136 students
2022/23 enrollment = 13,750 students
10 year growth = 1,385 students
2027/28 enrollment = 13,999 students

Year (Oct.) EE Pre‐K K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total Total Growth % Growth 2013/14 49 139 742 784 861 843 873 901 896 874 901 924 894 869 814 11,364 2014/15 40 122 739 791 830 899 910 930 963 930 900 927 889 871 829 11,570 206 1.8% 2015/16 50 153 740 803 841 889 949 940 957 973 960 945 928 880 873 11,881 311 2.7% 2016/17 98 167 826 821 862 928 896 985 1,031 997 1,003 1,039 962 892 863 12,370 489 4.1% 2017/18 44 207 807 899 857 926 947 951 1,047 1,062 1,018 1,058 996 936 859 12,614 244 2.0% 2018/19 44 207 808 876 946 900 964 993 1,017 1,087 1,104 1,108 1,034 956 911 12,955 341 2.7% 2019/20 44 207 809 868 912 983 926 1,007 1,065 1,058 1,122 1,175 1,089 989 928 13,182 227 1.8% 2020/21 44 207 822 883 915 956 1,024 965 1,082 1,107 1,094 1,212 1,144 1,048 958 13,461 279 2.1% 2021/22 44 207 824 889 912 945 987 1,060 1,040 1,112 1,153 1,177 1,185 1,098 1,017 13,650 189 1.4% 2022/23 44 207 842 889 912 943 973 1,024 1,126 1,078 1,152 1,234 1,136 1,138 1,052 13,750 99 0.7% 2023/24 44 207 863 910 908 940 966 999 1,083 1,157 1,118 1,235 1,200 1,092 1,111 13,833 84 0.6% 2024/25 44 207 869 932 936 939 967 999 1,052 1,113 1,201 1,201 1,200 1,153 1,057 13,870 36 0.3% 2025/26 44 207 880 930 958 970 965 1,001 1,052 1,082 1,154 1,261 1,149 1,152 1,093 13,898 28 0.2% 2026/27 44 207 890 948 955 992 998 999 1,052 1,083 1,122 1,230 1,218 1,104 1,110 13,952 54 0.4% 2027/28 44 207 901 959 974 988 1,019 1,034 1,052 1,083 1,124 1,196 1,188 1,170 1,060 13,999 47 0.3%

SLIDE 17

Ten Year Forecast

By Elementary Campus

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Lee Elementary is expected to enroll more than 900 students by 2018 and

more than 1,000 by 2019

Coppell ISD is expected to add 100 elementary students next fall

*Yellow box = enrollment exceeds stated campus capacity HISTORY October

ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS Campus Name Capacity 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 Austin Elementary 600 712 712 736 754 777 783 792 812 828 842 856 868 Cottonwood Creek Elementary 600 537 499 472 444 422 425 399 408 411 413 416 421 Denton Creek Elementary 600 531 466 431 405 387 381 373 383 396 405 409 410 Lakeside Elementary 600 473 530 528 510 512 518 505 500 498 499 510 519 Lee Elementary 740 734 820 923 1,019 1,094 1,153 1,217 1,237 1,282 1,327 1,367 1,406 Mockingbird Elementary 600 538 514 499 485 467 462 445 453 456 453 452 456 Pinkerton Elementary 400 393 421 442 474 470 464 456 448 445 444 445 458 Town Center Elementary 600 550 577 596 589 616 601 571 550 532 530 530 529 Valley Ranch Elementary 600 632 626 633 605 584 582 564 546 545 548 556 563 Wilson Elementary 600 483 473 478 471 487 499 512 500 500 494 492 496 ELEMENTARY TOTALS 5,583 5,638 5,738 5,756 5,816 5,868 5,834 5,837 5,893 5,955 6,033 6,126 Elementary Absolute Change 218 55 100 18 60 52 ‐34 3 56 62 78 93 Elementary Percent Change 4.06% 0.99% 1.77% 0.31% 1.04% 0.89% ‐0.58% 0.05% 0.96% 1.05% 1.31% 1.54%

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Ten Year Forecast

By Middle School & High School Campus

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Coppell Middle School West is currently over stated capacity
Total middle school enrollment is expected to reach 3,200 students by 2018
Coppell 9th Grade Center is opening in Fall 2018

*Yellow box = enrollment exceeds stated campus capacity History Oct. ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS Campus Name Capacity 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 Coppell Middle School East 1,000 982 973 936 943 951 980 995 966 948 914 923 935 Coppell Middle School North 1,050 940 949 959 983 986 967 957 945 941 878 843 830 Coppell Middle School West 1,500 1,109 1,205 1,313 1,319 1,346 1,358 1,404 1,447 1,477 1,496 1,491 1,494 MIDDLE SCHOOL TOTALS 3,031 3,127 3,208 3,245 3,283 3,305 3,356 3,358 3,366 3,288 3,257 3,259 Middle School Absolute Change 142 96 81 37 38 22 51 2 8 ‐78 ‐31 2 Middle School Percent Change 4.92% 3.17% 2.59% 1.15% 1.17% 0.67% 1.54% 0.06% 0.24% ‐2.32% ‐0.94% 0.06% Coppell High School 9th Grade Campus 1,200 983 1,072 1,082 1,058 1,116 1,113 1,081 1,141 1,109 1,076 Coppell High School 3,600 3,431 3,532 2,626 2,709 2,880 3,019 3,044 3,125 3,130 3,114 3,153 3,138 New Tech High School 500 325 317 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 HIGH SCHOOL TOTALS 3,756 3,849 4,009 4,181 4,362 4,477 4,560 4,638 4,611 4,655 4,662 4,614 High School Absolute Change 131 93 160 172 181 115 82 79 ‐28 44 7 ‐48 High School Percent Change 3.61% 2.48% 4.16% 4.30% 4.32% 2.65% 1.83% 1.73% ‐0.59% 0.96% 0.15% ‐1.02% DISTRICT TOTALS 12,370 12,614 12,955 13,182 13,461 13,650 13,750 13,833 13,870 13,898 13,952 13,999 District Absolute Change 489 244 341 227 279 189 99 84 36 28 54 47 District Percent Change 4.12% 1.97% 2.70% 1.75% 2.11% 1.41% 0.73% 0.61% 0.26% 0.20% 0.39% 0.34%

SLIDE 19

Summary

Coppell’s unemployment rate is currently under 3%.
The average new home sale price within the district is more

than $535,000.

The district started and closed more than 400 new homes

for the third straight year.

Over 500 new multi-family units are under construction

within Cypress Waters.

CISD can expect an increase of approximately 1,140

students during the next 5 years.

CISD is projected to enroll nearly 14,000 students by 2027.

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