Demographic Alvin Independent Update School Spring 2016 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Learn from Yesterday… Understand Today… Plan for Tomorrow

Alvin Independent School District

Demographic Update

Spring 2016

Economic Conditions – Houston MSA

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Unemployment Rate

• 0.2%

20,700 new jobs in 2015 National rate 1.9%

Job Growth

0.6%

109 more than 2014

Annualized Home Starts

2,426

Sources: Texas Workforce Commission & Metrostudy

U.S. 5.3% Texas 4.4% Houston MSA 4.8% Alvin 4.8% 27,899 new homes started in 2015, 2,426 less than 2014

Houston Economic Overview

A Cooling in the Oil Boom

• Oil prices finished 2015 with a December 2015 average of $38 per barrel
• Market analysts are expecting oil prices to average $40 per barrel for 2016 as global

supply builds and several major global economies experience an economic slowing

• The U.S. crude oil production is at its highest rates in three decades
• Houston ended 2015 with three straight months of near 10% year over year declines in

home sales

• The Houston housing market is expected to cool through 2016, with homes staying on the

market longer

• Houston home inventory was 3.2 months’ supply in December 2015, still well below the

national rate of 5.1 months, and a “balanced market” of 6 months’ supply 3

• Brazoria County sees gains even as South and West Texas counties slow with the oil

price drop

• Brazoria County’s refineries and petrochemical plans are booming with the cheaper

natural gas prices, construction activity is on the rise

• Currently $20.5 billion is being invested in petrochemical plants along the Gulf

Coast, with the majority set to come online in 2017

• The county had 18.8% year over year rise in single family permits in the end of 2015
• County sales tax receipts rose more than 18% for the same time period
• The City of Alvin had $24 million in new commercial permits in 2015, adding stores

such as Chicken Express, Planet Fitness, Burger King and an expansion at Amoco Federal Credit Union

• Alvin currently has the $1.2 billion C3 Petrocehmical plant project underway, set to

come online in 2017 for propane dehydration

Brazoria County Economic Overview

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Local Economic Update

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Grand Parkway- Section B

• Section B is a 28-mile stretch of the proposed Grand Parkway from I-45 to

SH 35 in Alvin then through to SH 288 near Rosharon

• The roadway would run along the southern border of Clear Creek ISD, just

south of Westover Park and Magnolia Creek

• Currently in design stages, ROW acquisition could begin in 2016
• Construction could start in 2017, with the roadway opening to traffic in 2020
• The Grand Parkway could spur residential and commercial development

within Alvin ISD

Houston New Home Ranking Report

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ISD Ranked by Annual Closings – 4Q15

*Adjusted based on additional research by Templeton Demographics staff (Added Sierra Vista 1,000 lots; Sterling Lakes West 569 lots; Newport Lake Estates 199 lots)

Rank District Name Annual Starts Annual Closings VDL Future

1 Fort Bend ISD 3,510 3,398 3,601 13,821 2 Katy ISD 2,742 3,000 3,442 13,095 3 Houston ISD 2,198 2,855 2,145 12,104 4 Cypress‐Fairbanks ISD 2,375 2,385 4,130 9,491 5 Lamar CISD 2,522 2,294 4,060 14,514 6 Conroe ISD 2,076 1,930 3,877 11,405 7 Klein ISD 1,494 1,591 2,211 2,839 8 Humble ISD 1,111 1,144 1,524 9,594 9 Tomball ISD 996 1,057 2,214 3,722 10 Alvin ISD 1,052 975 2,011 11,820* 11 Clear Creek ISD 882 753 1,286 1,968 12 New Caney ISD 622 698 562 5,721 13 Aldine ISD 572 689 805 1,853 14 Spring ISD 451 426 769 1,934 15 Goose Creek ISD 428 420 464 793 16 Montgomery ISD 327 379 771 2,896 17 Dickinson ISD 392 376 538 977 18 Magnolia ISD 376 356 483 4,697 19 Pearland ISD 421 352 325 329 20 Sheldon ISD 375 343 399 2,281

New Housing Activity

• Alvin ISD had more than 1,000 new home starts in 2015, nearly

double the number of starts in 2009, and a 13% rise over 2014

• District new home closings are up nearly 20% over 2014
• While Houston MSA new home starts and closings have slowed,

Alvin ISD continues to have strong new home demand

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100 200 300 400 500 600 700

Starts Closings Inventory

Starts 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Closings 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 1Q 182 136 195 143 205 231 1Q 145 116 178 178 156 211 2Q 165 186 204 186 233 300 2Q 163 189 200 168 232 275 3Q 196 181 204 174 252 249 3Q 211 199 193 158 188 248 4Q 147 172 151 163 224 257 4Q 163 203 182 155 226 227 Total 690 675 754 666 914 1,037 Total 682 707 753 659 802 961

Annual Closings 4Q15

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Top 10 Subdivisions ‐ 4Q15 (Ranked by Annual Closings) Rank Subdivision Annual Closings Quarter Closings VDL 1 Sterling Lakes 148 28 86 2 Savannah 145 30 175 3 Southlake 139 40 165 4 Southern Trails 105 17 152 5 Lakeland 89 13 6 Rodeo Palms 78 20 257 7 Sedona Lakes 78 17 178 8 Kendall Lakes 46 29 51 9 North Pointe Trails 32 7 10 Forest Heights 28 12 12 TOTALS 888 213 1,076

Vacant Developed Lots 4Q15

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Top 10 Subdivisions ‐ 4Q15 (Ranked by remaining VDL) Rank Subdivision Annual Closings VDL Future 1 Meridiana 441 5,061 2 Rodeo Palms 78 257 202 3 Pomona (Duke) 257 770 4 Sedona Lakes 78 178 219 6 Savannah 145 175 1,297 5 Southlake 139 165 147 8 Southern Trails 105 152 7 Savannah Plantation 6 106 45 9 Sterling Lakes 148 86 10 Palm Crest 6 60 TOTALS 705 1,877 7,644

Future Lots 4Q15

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Top 10 Subdivisions ‐ 4Q15 (Ranked by Future Inventory) Rank Subdivision VDL Future 1 Meridiana 441 5,061 2 Savannah 175 1,297 3 Sierra Vista 893 4 Pomona (Duke) 257 770 5 Pomona (Jeter) 680 6 Martha's Vineyard 472 7 Lakeland 458 8 Morgan's Landing 2 324 9 Bluewater Lakes on Manvel 312 10 Forest Heights 12 236 TOTALS 887 10,503

Overall Housing Data

By Elementary Attendance Zone

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Highest activity in the category Second highest activity in the category Third highest activity in the category

2016/17 ELEMENTARY ATTENDANCE ZONE Annual Starts Quarter Starts Annual Closings Quarter Closings Under Const. Inventory Vacant

• Dev. Lots

Future

ALVIN PRIMARY/ALVIN ELEMENTARY 27 28 1 4 9 111 45 DUKE 155 60 112 17 100 124 411 770 HASSE 13 3 20 6 4 9 2 178 HOOD‐CASE 37 10 28 12 14 19 12 708 JETER 81 35 78 20 50 60 257 1,081 MAREK MASON 134 31 167 30 41 72 178 989 MERIDIANA 192 39 170 35 77 119 592 6,061 PASSMORE 15 18 SAVANNAH LAKES 163 32 145 30 150 174 175 1,200 STEVENSON/DISNEY 11 10 3 3 42 324 TWAIN 89 17 78 36 16 28 51 103 WILDER YORK 150 30 139 40 35 63 165 246

Grand Total 1,052 257 975 227 494 680 2,011 11,723

Housing Activity Overview

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• Alvin ISD has 2,011 lots

available to build on

• The district has 11,820

future planned homes

^ _ ^ _ ^ _

S T H Y 6

MERIDIANA ELEM MANVEL HIGH MANVEL JH

¬ «

288

¬ «

6

¬ «

288

MASON MERIDIANA

Active Single-Family Housing Activity

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Meridiana

• 5,504 total lots
• 237 VDL
• Started two homes in January 2016
• Sections 3 & 7 with 115 lots were

approved in January 2016

• Anticipate building 200 in 2016
• Meridiana Elementary

^ _ ^ _ ^ _ ^ _

18 ELEM JETER ELEM RODEO PALMS JH DUKE ELEM

DUKE JETER MASON SAVANNAH LAKES YORK

Active Single-Family Housing Activity

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Pomona

• Future MF: starting in 4-5 years, 25

acres for MF, 22 acres for Townhomes (approx. 150-180 units)

• Total SF= 1,752 lots
• Duke = 1,072 lots
• Jeter = 680 lots
• 257 VDL
• Anticipate building 190 in 2016
• Split between Duke Elementary and

Jeter Elementary

^ _

MERIDIANA ELEM

¬ «

288

¬ «

288

MASON MERIDIANA

Sierra Vista

• 893 total lots
• Anticipate phase 1 with 242 lots

delivering 3rd quarter of 2017

• First homes occupied late 2017
• Anticipating 180 homes built per year
• Meridiana Elementary

Future Single-Family Housing Activity

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^ _ ^ _

DISNEY ELEM STEVENSON PRIM

¬ «

35

¬ «

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ALVIN/ALVIN MERIDIANA STEVENSON/DISNEY

G R A N D P A R K WAY GRA N D P A R K W A Y

Highland Resources Development

Future Subdivision

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Future Housing Development

• 5,440 Acres
• Total lot count unknown at this time
• Developer = Highland Resources Development
• Developer has no development plans at this time
• Split between Alvin, Angleton, and Danbury ISDs
• MUD development agreement approved by city
• Stevenson/Disney Elementary

^ _

FM 2 2 34

WILDER ELEM

MAREK WILDER

Multi-Family Activity

17 Avion Shadow Creek Ranch Broadstone Shadow Creek Ranch

Broadstone Shadow Creek Ranch

• 382 Units
• Construction Completion Summer 2016
• First units currently leasing
• Wilder Elementary

Avion Shadow Creek Ranch

• 276 Units
• Construction Completion April 2016
• First units currently leasing
• Wilder Elementary

2015-16 Apartment Yield Analysis

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2014‐15 2015‐16 Change

Units 5,374 5,374* Students 1,515 1,584 69 Yield 0.28 0.29 0.01

*Based on the same 31 apartment complexes present in 2014‐15 and 2015‐16. New complexes were not considered in this comparison

2015-16 Apartment Yield By Year Built

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Apartment and Single Family Analysis

20 2013‐14 2014‐15 2015‐16 2 Year Difference Total Students 19,774 20,818 22,134 2,360 Out of District 294 321 363 69 Unmatched 71 149 229 158 Total Students (Geocoded Inside District) 19,409 20,348 21,542 2,133 Multi‐Family Students in MF 1,253 1,515 1,618 365 MF Units 5,014 5,374 5,724 710 % Students in MF 6.4% 7.4% 7.5% 1.1% MF Yield 0.25 0.28 0.28 0.03 Single Family Students in SF 16,570 17,390 18,410 1,840 SF Parcels* N/A 33,120 34,973 N/A % Students in SF 85.4% 85.5% 85.5% 0.1% SF Yield N/A 0.53 0.53 N/A Manufactured Homes Students in MH 1,445 1,443 1,514 69 MH Units 1,666 1,666 1,666 % Students in MH 7.4% 7.1% 7.0% ‐0.4% MH Yield 0.87 0.87 0.91 0.04

• The number of out of district students has risen by 69 students over 3 years
• Between this school year and the 2013/14 school year, Alvin ISD had 365

more students living in apartments

• The percentage of students in single family homes has remained steady for

several years

* Data retrieved from County Appraisal Districts. Parcels not available for 2013-14 year.

Ten Year Forecast

By Grade Level

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• Alvin ISD will reach 25,500 students by 2018
• 5 year growth = 6,087 students
• 2020/21 enrollment = 28,245 students
• 10 year growth = 13,286 students
• 2025/26 enrollment = 35,444 students

*Yellow box = largest grade per year *Green box = second largest grade per year

Year (Oct.) EE/PK K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total Total Growth % Growth 2011/12 833 1,478 1,428 1,422 1,434 1,379 1,338 1,450 1,299 1,345 1,428 1,196 1,221 958 18,209 2012/13 872 1,518 1,541 1,464 1,408 1,481 1,434 1,383 1,476 1,336 1,546 1,300 1,136 991 18,886 677 3.7% 2013/14 842 1,657 1,604 1,631 1,517 1,412 1,527 1,469 1,418 1,507 1,524 1,453 1,273 975 19,809 923 4.9% 2014/15 852 1,670 1,770 1,676 1,668 1,570 1,504 1,583 1,506 1,484 1,662 1,416 1,429 1,076 20,866 1,057 5.3% 2015/16 844 1,720 1,800 1,855 1,758 1,746 1,612 1,628 1,679 1,564 1,719 1,579 1,419 1,235 22,158 1,292 6.2% 2016/17 844 1,796 1,866 1,894 1,942 1,837 1,822 1,681 1,689 1,760 1,787 1,623 1,546 1,248 23,334 1,176 5.3% 2017/18 844 1,875 1,955 1,961 1,983 2,023 1,926 1,887 1,723 1,751 1,997 1,663 1,575 1,353 24,517 1,182 5.1% 2018/19 844 1,945 2,040 2,055 2,050 2,056 2,095 1,972 1,939 1,789 2,008 1,864 1,587 1,389 25,632 1,116 4.6% 2019/20 844 2,036 2,102 2,142 2,154 2,146 2,136 2,143 2,040 2,016 2,037 1,881 1,790 1,398 26,864 1,232 4.8% 2020/21 844 2,117 2,207 2,187 2,231 2,231 2,237 2,250 2,230 2,114 2,305 1,903 1,809 1,580 28,245 1,380 5.1% 2021/22 844 2,202 2,284 2,309 2,283 2,326 2,324 2,308 2,331 2,314 2,377 2,158 1,824 1,599 29,484 1,239 4.4% 2022/23 844 2,292 2,398 2,394 2,424 2,389 2,425 2,418 2,369 2,428 2,632 2,224 2,073 1,614 30,924 1,440 4.9% 2023/24 844 2,396 2,476 2,506 2,506 2,549 2,500 2,502 2,504 2,463 2,759 2,462 2,134 1,837 32,438 1,514 4.9% 2024/25 844 2,496 2,590 2,611 2,637 2,628 2,668 2,610 2,585 2,607 2,789 2,582 2,361 1,892 33,901 1,463 4.5% 2025/26 844 2,589 2,702 2,724 2,741 2,762 2,752 2,785 2,710 2,691 2,956 2,613 2,479 2,096 35,444 1,543 4.6%

Ten Year Forecast

By Elementary Campus

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• Alvin ISD elementary campuses should continue to add close to 500

students each year for the foreseeable future

• The strongest growth will continue to be felt on campuses in the

western portion of the district (Duke, York, Savannah, Mason, Jeter)

*Yellow box = enrollment exceeds stated permanent building capacity *Red box = enrollment exceeds stated capacity with temp/flex buildings Permanent Building Capacity

• Cap. W/Temp/

Flex/Bldgs ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS Campus 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 Alvin Primary/Elementary 1,186 1,450 1,161 1,248 1,156 1,149 1,146 1,170 1,178 1,181 1,180 1,185 1,197 Hood‐Case Elementary 750 926 685 698 724 756 769 791 814 830 840 863 875 Jeter Elementary 800 888 923 760 797 833 888 934 973 1,015 1,022 1,031 1,031 Hasse Elementary 800 800 598 747 779 800 824 832 837 833 829 830 829 Marek Elementary 800 888 862 894 789 778 767 754 781 778 788 801 751 Mark Twain Elementary 800 800 839 752 767 772 768 790 795 803 811 818 823 Mason Elementary 653 829 724 678 638 646 643 648 659 680 687 708 722 Passmore Elementary 750 838 750 750 763 765 760 766 762 763 760 762 760 Savannah Lakes Elementary 800 932 799 827 780 759 728 725 740 761 789 827 856 Stevenson/Disney Elementary 1,185 1,317 1,220 1,235 1,243 1,263 1,276 1,276 1,281 1,350 1,422 1,507 1,604 Wilder Elementary 800 932 866 910 830 837 841 795 795 791 789 795 803 York Elementary 800 800 889 897 721 761 810 861 912 969 1,028 1,085 1,137 Duke Elementary 800 888 995 896 638 678 715 748 778 803 830 868 927 Meridiana Elementary 800 800 678 805 958 1,107 1,258 1,433 1,626 1,785 1,969 2,143 Elementary 17 800 800 653 688 723 752 781 816 851 892 978 Elementary 18 800 800 468 623 776 929 1,037 1,150 1,340 1,506 1,652 ELEMENTARY TOTALS 12,050 13,370 11,311 11,970 12,551 13,066 13,541 14,029 14,556 15,149 15,751 16,447 17,088 Elementary Absolute Growth 620 659 581 515 475 488 527 593 602 696 641 Elementary Percent Growth 5.80% 5.83% 4.85% 4.10% 3.64% 3.60% 3.76% 4.07% 3.97% 4.42% 3.90%

Ten Year Forecast

By Secondary Campus

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• Strong growth also felt at the secondary level as large

elementary classes begin to move through the district

*Clarification – distribution of students between Manvel High & future Shadow Creek High is yet to be determined. The student numbers included here reflect Shadow Creek High opening with grades 9,10,&11 in year 2016. Community input meetings will dictate the final decision for opening year grade levels at Shadow Creek High. *Yellow box = enrollment exceeds stated permanent building capacity *Red box = enrollment exceeds stated capacity with temp/flex buildings Permanent Building Capacity

• Cap. W/Temp/

Flex/Bldgs ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS Campus 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 Alvin Junior High 1,000 1,000 844 847 811 835 862 890 888 891 915 943 972 Fairview Junior High 1,000 1,000 722 748 746 787 834 867 875 889 913 932 947 Harby Junior High 832 904 797 805 810 838 917 926 927 926 966 989 1,012 Rodeo Palms 1,000 1,000 596 751 838 996 1,121 1,258 1,421 1,571 1,679 1,817 1,943 Manvel Junior High 1,000 1,000 874 942 1,061 1,101 1,231 1,297 1,480 1,596 1,717 1,812 1,968 Ryan Junior High 1,000 1,144 1,037 1,036 1,094 1,142 1,233 1,355 1,361 1,341 1,278 1,308 1,343 JUNIOR HIGH TOTALS 5,832 6,048 4,870 5,129 5,360 5,699 6,198 6,593 6,952 7,214 7,468 7,801 8,185 Junior High Absolute Growth 297 259 231 339 499 395 359 262 254 333 384 Junior High Percent Growth 6.49% 5.32% 4.50% 6.32% 8.76% 6.37% 5.45% 3.77% 3.52% 4.46% 4.92% Alvin High School 2,640 2,760 2,653 2,718 2,862 2,886 2,940 2,988 3,023 3,162 3,259 3,319 3,385 Manvel High School 2,685 2,901 3,119 2,043 1,702 1,612 1,669 1,870 1,979 2,128 2,333 2,509 2,733 Shadow Creek High School 2,500 2,500 1,263 1,843 2,169 2,316 2,558 2,776 3,072 3,419 3,616 3,845 HIGH SCHOOL TOTALS 7,825 8,161 5,772 6,024 6,407 6,667 6,925 7,416 7,778 8,362 9,011 9,444 9,963 High School Absolute Growth 386 252 383 260 258 491 362 584 649 433 519 High School Percent Growth 7.17% 4.37% 6.36% 4.06% 3.87% 7.09% 4.88% 7.51% 7.76% 4.81% 5.50% Assets 300 300 204 210 198 199 199 206 197 198 207 208 207 Brazoria Co. J JAEP 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ALTERNATIVE TOTALS 300 300 205 211 199 200 200 207 198 199 208 209 208 DISTRICT TOTALS 26,007 27,879 22,158 23,334 24,517 25,632 26,864 28,245 29,484 30,924 32,438 33,901 35,444 District Absolute Growth 1,292 1,176 1,183 1,115 1,232 1,381 1,239 1,440 1,514 1,463 1,543 District Percent Growth 6.2% 5.3% 5.1% 4.5% 4.8% 5.1% 4.4% 4.9% 4.9% 4.5% 4.6%

Summary

• In 2015, Brazoria County had an 18% year over year rise in new home permits.
• Currently $20.5 billion is being invested in petrochemical plants along the Gulf

Coast, including $1.2 billion in Alvin’s C3 Petrochemical plant.

• Alvin ISD started more than 1,000 new homes in 2015.
• Meridiana, Savanah Lakes and Duke 2016/17 elementary zones account for

roughly half of all new home activity in Alvin ISD.

• Meridiana Elementary is anticipated to open in 2016 with 678 students, and

enroll more than 800 students by 2017.

• Fall 2016 enrollment growth of 5.3% with an increase of 1,176 students.
• Fall 2016 enrollment = 23,334.
• Five year enrollment growth of 6,087 with fall 2020 enrollment = 28,245.
• Ten-Year enrollment growth of 13,286 with fall 2025 enrollment = 35,444.

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