DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY FOR THE NEW PROVIDENCE SCHOOL DISTRICT May 20, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY FOR THE NEW PROVIDENCE SCHOOL DISTRICT May 20, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Sep 06, 2023 381 likes •750 views

DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY FOR THE NEW PROVIDENCE SCHOOL DISTRICT May 20, 2019 STATISTICAL FORECASTING Provide demographic services for school districts in the New York-New Jersey metropolitan area since 1998. Performed demographic studies

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May 20, 2019

DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY FOR THE NEW PROVIDENCE SCHOOL DISTRICT

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 Provide demographic services for school districts in the New York-New Jersey metropolitan area since 1998.  Performed demographic studies for approximately 150 school districts in NY & NJ.  Demographic consultant for the NYC Public Schools since 2006.

STATISTICAL FORECASTING

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 Executive Director  Doctorate from Rutgers University Graduate School of Education in Educational Statistics and Measurement  Numerous publications on school demography and presentations nationally  Testified as an expert witness in school demography in several Administrative Law court hearings.

RICHARD S. GRIP ED.D.

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❑ Project grade-by-grade enrollments from 2019-20 through 2023-24, a 5-year period. ❑ Analyze district’s historical enrollments, birth and fertility rates, community population trends, and age structure ❑ Compute student yields by housing type ❑ Impact of settlement agreement (new housing) on school district PURPOSE OF THE STUDY

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HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED POPULATIONS 1940-2040

2,374 3,380 10,243 13,796 12,426 11,439 11,907 12,171 12,831 13,885 15,406

2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Historical Projected

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❑ 86% White and 10% Asian in 2010 (90%

White and 8% Asian in 2000) ❑ Median age = 41.0 years (NJ = 39.0 years) ❑ 16% of population is foreign-born (NJ = 22.1%). India and China are largest sources. ❑ Bachelor’s Degree or Higher = 68% (NJ = 38.1%) ❑ Median family income = $166K (NJ = $94K) ❑ Approximately 4,600 housing units, of which 76% are SF detached or attached (townhouses) ❑ 23% of housing units are renter-occupied. ❑ Median value of owner-occupied unit = $583K

DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE

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SCHOOL LOCATIONS

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ELEMENTARY ATTENDANCE AREAS

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❑ District’s 2018-19 enrollment

(10/15/18) is 2,382. ❑ 2009-10 enrollment = 2,201.5 (+180.5) ❑ Enrollment increased through 2015- 16 before stabilizing. ❑ Cohort-Survival Ratio Method (CSR) was used to project enrollments five years into the future.

HISTORICAL ENROLLMENT TRENDS

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HISTORICAL ENROLLMENTS (PK-12) 2009-10 TO 2018-19

2,201.5 2,195 2,210 2,265 2,338 2,345.5 2,386 2,380 2,372.5 2,382

0.0 500.0 1,000.0 1,500.0 2,000.0 2,500.0

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

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HISTORICAL ENROLLMENTS BY LEVEL 2009-10 TO 2018-19

1,247 1,239 1,261 1,297 1,318 1,307 1,343 1,362 1,357 1,357 332 337 354 356 374 379 367 361 386 411 622.5 619 595 612 646 659.5 676 657 629.5 614

200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

  • Gr. PK-6
  • Gr. 7-8
  • Gr. 9-12
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❑ Ratios are calculated for each grade

  • progression. (Ex. 100 1st graders in 2017-18

become 95 2nd graders in 2018-19 = 0.95) ❑ Survival ratios were computed for ten historical years. ❑ 8 of 13 average ratios were above 1.000 indicating net inward migration, particularly in elementary and middle school levels. ❑ Averages were then computed and used to project future enrollments.

ENROLLMENT PROJECTION METHOD COHORT SURVIVAL RATIO

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❑ Positive first grade replacement (FGR)

has occurred in 8 of last 9 years. Usually compared to kindergarten classes but district has half-day program. ❑ Positive FGR- Number of graduating 12th grade students is less than the number of first grade students replacing them in the next year. ❑ District has gained an average of 27 students due to first grade replacement in last 5 years. FIRST GRADE REPLACEMENT

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HISTORICAL FIRST GRADE REPLACEMENT

15

  • 3

56 30 26 45 34 9 21

  • 10

10 20 30 40 50 60 70

2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

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TOTAL ENROLLMENT CHANGE VS. FIRST GRADE REPLACEMENT

15

  • 3

56 30 26 45 34 9 21

  • 6.5

15 55 73 7.5 40.5

  • 6
  • 7.5

9.5

  • 20

20 40 60 80 100

2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

First Grade Replacement Enrollment Change

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❑ Births are used to project kindergarten

students 5 years later. ❑ Birth counts have been trending lower but have appeared to stabilize. ❑ 180 births in 2005, 109 in 2014. Last 3 years, birth count is 124-127. ❑ Fertility rate in New Providence is higher than those of Union County & NJ.

BIRTH COUNTS

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HISTORICAL BIRTH COUNTS 2004-2017

151 180 163 152 154 154 164 126 139 157 109 125 124 127

50 100 150 200 250 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

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BIRTHS BY ATTENDANCE AREA 2004-2017

Birth Year Roberts Salt Brook Unknown

2004 70 81 2005 83 94 3 2006 86 74 3 2007 83 66 3 2008 72 79 3 2009 68 80 6 2010 78 78 8 2011 71 52 3 2012 69 63 7 2013 91 62 4 2014 61 43 5 2015 64 53 8 2016 73 45 6 2017 65 55 7 Total 2004-2017 1,034 925 Difference 2004-2017

  • 5
  • 26
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BIRTHS BY CENSUS BLOCK 2004

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BIRTHS BY CENSUS BLOCK 2017

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BIRTH COUNTS AND BIRTH-TO-KINDERGARTEN SURVIVAL RATIOS

Birth Year1 Number of Births New Providence Kindergarten Students 5 Years Later Birth-to-Kindergarten Survival Ratio 2004 151 130 0.861 2005 180 136 0.756 2006 163 162 0.994 2007 152 126 0.829 2008 154 151 0.981 2009 154 131 0.851 2010 164 143 0.872 2011 126 116 0.921 2012 139 120 0.863 2013 157 151 0.962 2014 109 N/A N/A 2015 125 N/A N/A 2016 124 N/A N/A 2017 127 N/A N/A

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AGE PYRAMID NEW PROVIDENCE 2000

6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% Under 5 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+

Females Males

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AGE PYRAMID NEW PROVIDENCE 2010

6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% Under 5 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+

Females Males

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AGE PYRAMID NEW JERSEY 2010

5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% Under 5 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+

Females Males

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CHANGE IN MALES AND FEMALES 2000 TO 2010 NEW PROVIDENCE

Males Females

Age Group

Numerical Change Percentage Point Change Numerical Change Percentage Point Change Under 5 +25 +0.1

  • 84
  • 0.8

5-9

  • 10
  • 0.2

+32 +0.2 10-14

  • 1
  • 0.1

+92 +0.7 15-19 +80 +0.6 +82 +0.6 20-24 +65 +0.5 +29 +0.2 25-29

  • 12
  • 0.1
  • 20
  • 0.2

30-34

  • 183
  • 1.6
  • 151
  • 1.3

35-39

  • 117
  • 1.1
  • 162
  • 1.4

40-44

  • 48
  • 0.5
  • 49
  • 0.5

45-49

  • 0.1

+80 +0.6 50-54 +200 +1.6 +178 +1.4 55-59 +176 +1.4 +123 +1.0 60-64 +23 +0.1 +44 +0.3 65-69

  • 12
  • 0.1
  • 6
  • 0.1

70-74

  • 94
  • 0.8
  • 88
  • 0.8

75-79

  • 31
  • 0.3
  • 47
  • 0.4

80-84 +57 +0.5 +28 +0.2 85+ +34 +0.3 +31 +0.2

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POTENTIAL NON AGE-RESTRICTED NEW HOUSING NEW PROVIDENCE

Prop

  • perty

y Locat atio ion

Attendance ce Area Number

  • f Units

Housing g Type Notes

111 Spring ing Street (Becton

  • n Dickinson)

inson) Roberts 192

Multi-Family Market-Rate and Affordable Development will have 154 market-rate units and 38 affordable units (20% of units).

41 Spring ing Street Roberts 143

Multi-Family Market-Rate and Affordable Development will have 114 market-rate units and 29 affordable units (20% of units).

16 165 Spring ing Street Roberts 22

Multi-Family Market-Rate and Affordable Development will have 17 market-rate units and 5 affordable units (20% of units).

48 Comme merce Driv ive Roberts 38

Multi-Family Market-Rate and Affordable Development will have 30 market-rate units and 8 affordable units (20% of units).

98 Flor

  • ral

al Ave venu nue Roberts 32

Multi-Family Market-Rate and Affordable Development will have 25 market-rate units and 7 affordable units (20% of units).

150 Floral al Ave venue ue Roberts 85

Multi-Family Market-Rate and Affordable Development will have 68 market-rate units and 17 affordable units (20% of units).

140 Sprin ing Street Roberts 48

Multi-Family Market-Rate and Affordable Development will have 38 market-rate units and 10 affordable units (20% of units).

700 Cent ntral al Ave venu nue Roberts 150

Multi-Family Market-Rate and Affordable Development will have 120 market-rate units and 30 affordable units (20% of units).

121 Chanlon nlon Ro Road ad Roberts 104

Multi-Family Market-Rate and Affordable Development will have 83 market-rate units and 21 affordable units (20% of units).

Total al 814 649 Market-rate Units 165 Affordable Units

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NEW HOUSING

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 Student yields were computed by housing type to determine impact of new developments.  Student addresses were joined to the New Providence property database.  Detached Single-Family homes: 0.97  Townhouse/Condo: 0.21  Apartments: 0.22 STUDENT YIELDS

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 Rough estimate of new children as bedroom distributions and multi-family housing types were unknown.  222 children are projected from new developments.  Could be lower (144) as developments could be considered TODs due to proximity to Murray Hill train station.  Additional children were not added into baseline

  • projections. Timeline is also unknown.

 Board should continue to monitor all developments.

ESTIMATED NUMBER OF STUDENTS

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HOME SALES NEW PROVIDENCE 2001-2018

167 192 188 246 201 143 152 141 118 118 144 142 189 148 194 196 198 188

50 100 150 200 250 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

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ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS

2,386 2,385 2,400 2,398 2,383

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24

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ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS BY GRADE CONFIGURATION

Historical PK-6 7-8 9-12 2018-19 1,357 411 614 Projected PK-6 7-8 9-12 2019-20 1,358 409 619 2020-21 1,330 413 642 2021-22 1,322 409 669 2022-23 1,292 418 688 2023-24 1,284 416 683 5-year Change

  • 73

+5 +69

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CAPACITY ANALYSIS

School Capacity Actual Enrollmen ent 2018-19 19 Differen ence Projec ected ed Enrollmen ent 2023 2023-24 24 Differen ence Allen W. Rober erts E.S. (PK-6) 6)

689 707

  • 18

688 +1

Salt t Brook E.S. (PK-6) 6)

689 650 +39 596 +93

New ew Providen dence e M.S. (7 (7-8) 8)

1,214 411 +189 416 +115

New ew Providen dence e H.S. (9 (9-12) 2)

614 683

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 PK-12 enrollments are projected to be fairly stable throughout the 5-year projection period.  Declining birth rate likely to lead to less children entering kindergarten, resulting in enrollment decline at elementary level.  Some of proposed new housing is likely to start near the end of projection period. Impact may occur in 5+ years. SUMMARY

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